U.S. Presidential Election 2020

Another example of farage talking bollocks…

Andrew Neil – What is the evidence of voter fraud?

Nigel Farage – It’s there for all to see…

Andrew Neil – Where is the evidence for voter fraud in the US?

Farage – It’s so new… it hasn’t come to light yet..

This was, I think, before his exchange with Piers Morgan about trump’s bleach comments.

Four years of Fox presenters defending the indefensible and they’re seeing a way out. Must be cathartic.

Fox have a news division that is staffed by professional journalists and a bunch of opinion shows that are staffed by nutty conspiracy mongers. The news side still has a conservative editorial position, so the stories they emphasize or downplay will be the opposite of what the NY Times, for example, does, but the journalists are honest within that. They hired outside consultants to analyze the election data for them, so their news team is reporting what those consultants said.

They’ve called Arizona for Biden.

They’ve called Arizona for Biden.

For the 2nd time then. Unless its AP doing the calls, I think its safe but still. I’d wait for AP

Typical populism, see which way the wind is blowing and the crowd is running then jump in front of it.

Boris does this, just less transparently….

AP have called it

https://www.google.com/search?q=arizona+vote+count&rlz=1C1GCEU_enGB822GB822&oq=arizona+vote&aqs=chrome.1.69i57j0i3l7.5115j0j4&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

Sorry, I meant Fox have called it.

Nevada, Pennsylvania, Georgia & North Carolina still to finish counting.
If Biden wins any of these its in the bag?
Currently he is ahead only in Nevada. I think Trump has to win all 4 of these for him to take it.
Too close for comfort.

Sen. Bob Casey of Pennsylvania was just on CNN and could not be more confident Biden will win. Lots of votes still to count in Philly, its suburbs and Pittsburgh (areas where Biden will clean up). Should get more results in about 4-5 hours…

Arizona seems to close to call, granted the major outstanding counties are trending blue but trump votes were coming in strong in Maricopa which contronuted to the reducing lead for Biden. And update from Pima (inc Tucson) would go a long way to putting minds at ease.

AP have called it

https://www.google.com/search?q=arizona+vote+count&rlz=1C1GCEU_enGB822GB822&oq=arizona+vote&aqs=chrome.1.69i57j0i3l7.5115j0j4&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

My bad, I understood it was still in play due to uncounted ballots and Trump was reducing the lead and could still swing it.

Nevada, Pennsylvania, Georgia & North Carolina still to finish counting.
If Biden wins any of these its in the bag?
Currently he is ahead only in Nevada. I think Trump has to win all 4 of these for him to take it.
Too close for comfort.

I think NC will go to trump.

I’d put my own money on Georgia going to Biden.

Pennsylvania – I’m worried they will run out of votes despite the huge swing.

Nevada – I think the gap will only widen now.

Nah PA will be bide, but GA will seal the deal 1st

The democrats might get control of the Senate after all..

Don't want to get your hopes up too much about this scenario. But David Perdue is at 50.28% in Georgia. If he drops below 50%, it goes to a runoff. The other Georgia Senate race is already in a runoff. If we then win both runoffs in January, we'll "win" the Senate 50-50.

— Palmer Report (@PalmerReport) November 5, 2020

From what I think I’ve understood from the latest ‘What Trump Can Tell Us About Constitutional Law’ podcast (thanks someone on here for that recommendation I think), it would be better not to need Pennsylvania to claim a win because of the potential for the Supreme Court to rule against the counting of late mail in ballots. If it all comes down to Pennsylvania, we end up in loads of legal battles, which ultimately comes down to the newly Republican weighted Supreme Court.

Fingers still crossed for a simpler Biden win!

Agree with CNN being coy. Perhaps deliberately so given they missed up in 2016 with incorrect early calls.

The main CNN page I am watching hasn’t called Arizona yet and was very shy on making other calls. (e.g. Alaska, which other sources called for Trump ages ago)

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/results/president?iid=politics_election_national_map#mapmode=call

Interestingly their Popular Vote figures are a little lower than other sources too.
They currently give:

Biden: 71,659,189 (50.5%)
Trumpet: 68,099,216 (48.0%)

Looks like there are more outstanding ballots remaining in Georgia than is being reported: https://t.co/mHPjobi6o0

— Greg Sargent (@ThePlumLineGS) November 5, 2020

Don’t want to get your hopes up too much about this scenario. But David Perdue is at 50.28% in Georgia. If he drops below 50%, it goes to a runoff.

That’s a really interesting one because the trend is expected to mirror the presidential race there.

As of 9:50 p.m. Wednesday night, Pennsylvania had 99% of precincts reporting but only 71% of mail ballots counted, with about 763,000 remaining to be counted. Of the mail ballots counted so far in Pennsylvania, 77% were cast for Biden.

Philly Inquirer link

As for Georgia senators, don’t forget that Kelly Loeffler the GOP junior senator is also under pressure.

I notice Trump hasn’t tweeted for 13 hours. Surely that’s a new record.

Has he retired to the study with a revolver?

Or has a grown up taken away his phone to prevent him inciting a civil war?

If it all comes down to Pennsylvania, we end up in loads of legal battles, which ultimately comes down to the newly Republican weighted Supreme Court.

I’d be more worried about Wisconsin, looking at the BBC’s online infographic (not sure how up to date it is) it’s showing 99% counted with Biden ahead, but by less than 1%, Which would allow trump to demand a recount, correct?

Pennsylvania is arguably less marginal than Wisconsin…

As for the Supreme court, as I understand it (IANAL) that would be the very final resort for trump, he would have to challenge the validity of specific state(s) polling and/or counts, with actual verifiable evidence (not just claims) first at the individual state level, before going to the US appeals court. By the time he actually got to the supreme court he’d have had the same case ruled against twice en-route, at which point a different ruling would look very suspect and seriously undermine the supreme court’s independence, opening them to very similar claims of nepotism and conspiracy, so they may well have to find against him… He might have tried to stack it in his favour but that very decision could have actually limited his options…

Trumps best (only?) chances now sit with demanding recounts in the most marginal states

The narrowing counts in PA and AZ

Is it me only seeing two space age cock n’ balls?

Nope 😂

I’d be more worried about Wisconsin, looking at the BBC’s online infographic (not sure how up to date it is) it’s showing 99% counted with Biden ahead, but by less than 1%, Which would allow trump to demand a recount, correct?

Correct as its within the 1% margin, but that said there are have no sign of irregularities and the margin is still 20,000 votes. I don’t know if trump team is mounting alegal challenge to the voting or just asking for a recount but I think its the latter

Trumps best (only?) chances now sit with demanding recounts in the most marginal states

I think so. The Dem states were so primed to expect Trump to challenge their processes you’d think they are watertight. Some have live streaming cameras in the room for anybody to observe. But who know’s what legal loophole Team Trump come up with? Last night they were reporting his legal team were coming up with a new definition of a ‘legal ballot’ that they’d then try and enforce.

Recounts (there were 3 I think) in 2016 changed nothing.

I notice Trump hasn’t tweeted for 13 hours. Surely that’s a new record.

Has he retired to the study with a revolver?

Or has a grown up taken away his phone to prevent him inciting a civil war?

He called a lid on yesterday very early and disappeared. Bit worried what schemes they’re coming up with.

Unless its AP doing the calls, I think its safe but still. I’d wait for AP

AP called it for Biden yesterday but it seems to have been somewhat premature and its become more competitive. I think there was a mistake in how ballots were still waiting to be counted or something.
Some others held back. Hence why the Guardian which uses AP is higher than the BBC.

140k mail in votes still to count for Pennsylvania according to CNN

@cookeaa – Wisconsin’s state rules allow for a recount with less than a 1% difference in votes cast, not sure if any other states have similar, or at least of those with results still to declare. However fivethirtyeight.com reckon that recounts rarely move the final tally more than a couple of hundred votes either way and that’s not enough to overturn the result.

Fivethirtyeight are also saying that it may be another 24-48 hours before Pennsylvania finish their count. From which:

Trump and Biden are now separated by about 164,000 votes, with Trump leading. But the more than 460,000 outstanding mail ballots left to be counted are likely to lean heavily Democratic. And at least 116,000 of them come from Philadelphia, a very Democratic-leaning city where mail ballots so far have gone to Biden by more than a 9 to 1 ratio. If Biden wins those outstanding mail ballots by something approaching the margins he has been winning mail ballots statewide, those mail ballots should give him the lead statewide.

Good morning from Georgia!

Right now, Trump leads Biden by just 18,540 votes — just .37 of a percentage point. There are still an estimated 50,000 votes uncounted.

The state is likely heading for a recount.

— Jenny Jarvie (@JennyJarvie) November 5, 2020

PENNSYLVANIA MATH:

Trump +195,953 votes
6,277,135 votes reporting
~88% estimated vote reporting
~855,973 votes remaining
Biden must win remaining votes 525,963 to 330,010.
Biden must win remaining ballots 61% – 39%.

Biden is favored. Mail ballots are HEAVILY D.#Election2020

— Ryan Matsumoto (@ryanmatsumoto1) November 5, 2020

I’d be more worried about Wisconsin, looking at the BBC’s online infographic (not sure how up to date it is) it’s showing 99% counted with Biden ahead, but by less than 1%, Which would allow trump to demand a recount, correct?

He can demand a recount, but the gap is to big to change the result.

#BREAKING Polls are set to open in 48 hours across the US as the authoritarian regime of Donald Trump attempts to consolidate its hold over the troubled, oil-rich, nuclear-armed, north American nation. Analysts are sceptical the election will end months of political violence.

— gathara (@gathara) November 1, 2020

African reporting on the American election in the style that Americans report on elections in Africa. Open it up to view the whole thread.

Surprisingly accurate!

His spiritual advisor is preying for him.
Wow, just wow

I last watched CNN during gulf war 1 (I recognise Wolf Blitzer and who wouldn’t with a name like that), so it’s been a while. Any other recent converts fallen in love with Julia Chatterley or is it just me?

Not to debase the conversation too much I also love John King and his Magic Wall. I reckon I could drive that myself now.

Fingers still crossed for a simpler Biden win!

I reckon Biden will narrowly win Nevada, Arizona, Pennsylvania and Georgia. Trump isn’t going to get all of them overturned either by recounts or legal action.

^Yep. Me too. All of the presenters on CNN are excellent. The UK channels/presenters are so poor in comparison.

I didn’t see this on TV – Eric and Rudi presser.

‘these ballots could be from Mars’

https://www.c-span.org/video/?477808-1/trump-campaign-claims-voter-fraud-pennsylvania-files-lawsuit

His spiritual advisor is preying for him.

I love the bloke randomly walking back and forth. Did he realise he was under his 10k steps or something?

‘these ballots could be from Mars’

More likely to be Trump-favouring, I’d say. It’d suburban women from Venus he should be looking to exclude.