I know this topic has probably had the arse kicked out of it, but seriously WTAF is going on?! I’ve hear Brexit, Covid, Suez, container prices / shortages etc.

Surely this is now beyond a joke, I’ve been trying to order my son a new Trek Procaliber and Merlin say July 2022 and I got an email from Sigma basically saying sorry we are never gonna be able to get one!

I’ll not go into the debacle of me trying to order a particular Dura Ace 12sp groupset. Plus you can’t get Shimano disc pads for DA / Ultegra for love nor money.

Is the world going mad? How are companies still staying afloat if they can sell manufacture or anything?

Sounds like someone (me) moaning on about first world problems, but is it really? Surely it goes deeper than this.

Any thoughts?

No idea how companies are staying afloat tbh, but I’m kinda enjoying the lack of availability. I’ve sorta accepted that I can’t change the bikes I have and I need to just get out and ride and be happy with what I have. I don’t need any more than the hard tail I have with some older forks and a 1×11 grouoset. I’m happy with my basic heavy gravel bike with 3×9 gearing. I’m making my own packs for it.
You can get spares pretty easy if you haven’t got the latest kit.

I have lost the urge to get newer fancier kit as I’ve realised the only limit is myself and buying more kit never really improves the enjoyment of riding.

“ How are companies still staying afloat”

Apart from the fact that a big part of the problem in cycling was a surge in demand, you’re talking about companies that are historically successful businesses and thus likely to be able to get loans etc to keep them afloat until things become more normal.

It’s a great illustration of the risks of globalised manufacture and just in time supply chains.

How are companies still staying afloat

They sold everything they could put out at RRP for about a year.

Most cycle businesses should be quite comfortable at the moment, though I feel for bike shops unable to get stock to keep their turnover up now.

Bikes are coming back into stock all over the place now, but you’ll need to be flexible on brand, model & spec – and move fast.

Plus you can’t get Shimano disc pads for DA / Ultegra for love nor money.

Flat mount calipers?

https://www.condorcycles.com/products/shimano-l03a-resin-disc-brake-pads?variant=33815652434058

About 34 min in to this podcast, Mike Sanderson gives a pretty good account of what’s been happening. https://singletrackworld.com/2021/02/singletrack-podcast-cairn-cycles-and-the-adventure-1-0-egravel-bike/

They sold everything they could put out at RRP for about a year.

they did that in 2020, then jumped up the RRPs by 30% and did it again this year.

I wouldn’t worry about bike companies, they have presold pretty much their whole 2022 stock having sold all their 2021 with minimal discounting.

Bike shops are another matter entirely…

Bikes and parts are available, you just can’t be super picky and be prepared to pay full rrp.

Better bet is to go frame only and source your parts from whoever has stock, i have built up 2 bikes this year already, i used some old parts but I sourced more than a whole bikes worth of parts.

they did that in 2020, then jumped up the RRPs by 30% and did it again this year.

Prices have gone up, and it’s particularly noticeable on cheaper bikes, because transport costs have massively increased. I haven’t seen 30% last year and again this year on bikes though.

It’s a great illustration of the risks of globalised manufacture

True, but all the rubber for tyres comes from a limited part of the world, and if they can’t supply it because of lockdowns or whatever, then it would make no difference where you build the rest of the bike. Don’t forget that massive parts of the world are still being affected by Covid.

It’s the will of the people

It’s the will of the people

supply chain disruption on a global scale?

I wouldn’t worry about bike companies, they have presold pretty much their whole 2022 stock having sold all their 2021 with minimal discounting.

It’s very much winners and losers out there, the bigger or more on the ball ones, with better forcasting and more resources are indeed well placed to overcome the curent difficulties but many of the smaller brands who have very little in-house production, run their inventories leaner and are used to working on a just in time basis are looking at having almost nothing to sell for most of 2022.

We are going to see a few brands go to the wall before this is over. Seems crazy when demand is so high but if you can’t get your bikes to market….

Surprisingly in my 20+ years of biking and being serial upgrader/swapper of bikes !!

I’ve never been more settled with my current fleet 🙂

I’d have to remortgage to get anything better now 🙂 🙂

True, but all the rubber for tyres comes from a limited part of the world, and if they can’t supply it because of lockdowns or whatever, then it would make no difference where you build the rest of the bike.

Tyres (well top end road ones) are the one thing which seem widely available, bought half a dozen GP5000s in the last 18 months (wear through at least two pairs a year).

I’m obviously asking too much for my 2020 P7S which is in just about new condition, asking £850 less than new & not a sniff.
Must be cos it’s from Halifax. 😂😂🥺

Just so you know several bike frame factories in Asia have gone pop as they can’t get raw materials to actually make things and pay the bills. No lack of orders

18 months for forgings, 64 weeks for spoke nipples, over a year leadtimes for some types of metal. I’ve heard shimano ebike parts are 2024 delivery now…

Ive knocked several product lines on the head like thru axles as we can’t buy 2000kg of 7075 Swiss lathe bar till summer next year. Pedal axles have been a mare too. Lucky we have literally tons of metal instock as I forward order over a year in advance but not everything.

Shipping containers gone from £2500 to £15000 a box. That’s £40 on every imported wheelset…

We have bearly started to see the start of the shortages kick in worldwide. Don’t be surprised by 50% price increases next year

Neil SuperstarComponents

I’m obviously asking too much for my 2020 P7S which is in just about new condition, asking £850 less than new & not a sniff.

The secondhand prices bubble has burst now.

Dunno what the RRP was, but I know it won’t have been cheap (knowing Orange).

Pedal axles have been a mare too

Don’t say that, I’ve just bent one of my Nano axles.

on the total opposite of this.
i fancied a fat bike after a ride on one in scotland. i had a look at 2nd hand for a week. no good.
someone sent me a link to Winstanleys with a 2022 Kona Wo. i rang Winstanleys the same day, and the bike landed 5 days later.

Prices have gone up, and it’s particularly noticeable on cheaper bikes, because transport costs have massively increased. I haven’t seen 30% last year and again this year on bikes though.

You won’t because a huge chunk of that was brexit. A company like Trek holds stock in the netherlands and then ships to the UK, immediate 14% price hit. Now add on the increased costs of shipping.

Personally expecting delivery from Trek in February, on something ordered beginning September

Surely this is now beyond a joke, I’ve been trying to order my son a new Trek Procaliber

Oh Ok. Thinking you can choose a specific models is very 2018. I can assumed you were going to say you couldn’t find any bikes at all

These aren’t in stock but they are available this year

https://alpkit.com/products/sonder-dial-gx-eagle

The OP lost me with you can’t get Shimano brake pads for love or money when they are clearly widely available on the web.

Dunno what the RRP was, but I know it won’t have been cheap (knowing Orange).

Currently the P7S is £2400. I didn’t pay anywhere near that though.

Quick straw poll of some LBS’s I’ve been in over the last couple of weeks is that lower end bikes are becoming available and their stock was good, but pretty much zero higher end stock. Even the cheap stuff wasn’t particularly cheap though!

Everyone here in Australia used to order from wiggle/crc/merlin. But now there’s no stock and its more expensive than the locals.

The local webstores have loads of stock and better prices.

Dunno it its cos we’re handy for Asia and no hgv issues, or what

Even the cheap stuff wasn’t particularly cheap though!

That’s due to the freight costs Neil mentioned above.

The landed cost of a bike that retailed for around £250 has practically doubled.

I’ve heard shimano ebike parts are 2024 delivery now

Not quite – Its not before mid 2024. You won’t get to know when for a year or more after you order…. Uuurrggghhhhhh. Try running a bike business when you won’t know for a year after you order when you will get it. I ordered some disc brakes recently, discs – 1 month (Yay!), clamps for the brakes 18 months, not so great, actual brakes, we’ll get back to you, but no chance of it being before 2024.

Its not awesomes out there.

It’s a strange situation for sure. A lot of decent components are unavailable yet the second hand bike market has popped too. I’ve been trying to sell a mid level road and a similar ht MTB for a few weeks and no takers, so will likely sit tight till the Spring and try again.

Quick straw poll of some LBS’s I’ve been in over the last couple of weeks is that lower end bikes are becoming available and their stock was good

Yep my LBS seems to get regular drops of commuter / town bikes.

Popped into Sigma and they had loads of stuff in stock including all the impossible to find gravel builds from mid panic. Prob just not fussed with Trek but Specialized, Orbea, Cervelo and Bianchi was all there. Prob just have to be a bit more open about your chosen steed. Few other places nearby appear ok stocked for bikes despite being between seasons.

Popular group set components is another matter…

Most bike cos run on pre-orders, so lots of bikes are getting built with components that have come through in the time expected, so you will see stuff arriving for the next few months, but then after that its going to get really thin on the ground as lead times have shot up by months at a time if not years. Somewhere down the line that really starts to bite hard.

Pretty much every bike shop around here (Milton Keynes) has got stock of bikes, including the Trek store. Might be worth popping into your LBS but recognise that you’ll be paying sticker price and will have to be less choosy.

Thanks for the feedback, some has been helpful and some hilarious!

‘Need to be less choosy?’ Erm if I’m paying £3.5k plus on a group set, then I want the crank lengths to be the ones I actually want – I personally don’t think that’s unreasonable?

Secondly – if someone can post a link to Shimano L03A Resin Disc Brake Pads I’d be most grateful. (I’m happy to be proved wrong)

Thirdly – Paying full rrp yet being less choosy over what make and model bike? Seriously WTAF!

Are we really accepting this bollox? This is like walking into The Ivy for dinner ordering steak and them saying, no steak mate but you can have beans on toast, but you’re gonna have to pay the price for the steak, oh and you have to come back next week for it even though you have a table booked now.

Or yeah pre order – give us £3k now for the Trek, we will take your dough, sit on it for an undisclosed amount of time, then maybe we will get you the bike next year or maybe we won’t and then we will after a few months refund your money! This happened to me with a £300 jacket this year which was annoying enough -but £3k is a different matter.

I’m sorry if this offends some people, but personally I feel we are giving it the Emperor’s New Clothes and accepting shyte service as an acceptable norm.

As an analogy – has anyone tried buying a new Rolex steel watch at the minute? The dealers are having a proper laugh on this one with all sorts of games – the difference is most people wanting one aren’t bending over for them and are going to the grey market. (No I don’t own or wear a Rolex).

Are we really accepting this bollox?

Feel free to suggest ways to solve the current supply problems.

“Are we really accepting this bollox?”

Im with the above poster, feel free to post any suggestions to me

“Or yeah pre order – give us £3k now for the Trek, we will take your dough, sit on it for an undisclosed amount of time, then maybe we will get you the bike next year or maybe we won’t and then we will after a few months refund your money! This happened to me with a £300 jacket this year which was annoying enough -but £3k is a different matter.”

If this has happened then its poor from a bike shop.

I cant speak for everyone but personally we at my place of work are trying our very hardest to get (quality) bikes into peoples hands that suit their needs and budgets as fast as possible.

It’s insanely difficult with much time spent making telephone calls and sending emails to facilitate this with unreliable ETAs and unknown timelines and constantly moving of bike prices.

I appreciate that many will have had negative experiences and crappy experience with their local shops but it has been a bit of a ride for the bike industry in the last two years!

Secondly – if someone can post a link to Shimano L03A Resin Disc Brake Pads I’d be most grateful. (I’m happy to be proved wrong)

Ebay and amazon both stock these 🤷‍♂️

I mean that really is easy. Plenty of options.

‘Need to be less choosy?’ Erm if I’m paying £3.5k plus on a group set, then I want the crank lengths to be the ones I actually want – I personally don’t think that’s unreasonable?

yes, if the components don’t exist.

the days of what you want whenever you want it are gone (for now, hopefully)

Are we really accepting this

Not sure if you didn’t get the memo, but a few people around the world haven’t quite been feeling the Mae West of late?
😂

Sadly the days of being able to easily find exactly what we want, when we want it and at a knock down price are over.

If you want to buy a bike right now you are looking at sacrificing at least one of those factors.

And it’s not the shops’, or even the brands’ fault. Everything is pretty messed up right now.