The run in to the mountains is radically different from last year when Chris Froome put an end to the eventual suspense atop the first climb of the Tour de France at La Pierre-Saint-Martin. The first mountain stage is quite light with only the col d’Aspin on the menu, preceding a 7-km downhill to the unprecedented finish at Lac de Payolle. Col d’Aspin is one of the giants of the Pyrenees but definitely not the hardest with 12km of climbing at an average gradient of 6.5%. Is it too hard for Greg Van Avermaet to keep the yellow jersey? It all depends on how much the GC contenders will fight, possibly way behind the long breakaway. Up to the Pas de Peyrol on Wednesday, Movistar showed they’re in a hurry to challenge Chris Froome and Team Sky. They might be inspired to put pressure on the defending champion without waiting for the two grueling Pyrenean stages as the downhill of col d’Aspin is likely to shake up the overall classification even more than the uphill. It’s just a taste of the high mountains but it could give a bitter after taste to some of the protagonists and it’ll say more about Alberto Contador’s recovery after he badly crashed twice in the first two stages.

So, who’s going to be? Well, let’s consult Inrng:

The Contenders: Dan Martin climbs and sprints well from a small group, especially in an uphill finish. Julian Alaphilippe is another option but he was struggling in the Massif Central a touch so Martin looks the safer pick between the two.

Alejandro Valverde sprints well too and doesn’t need an uphill run to the line to beat a select group. If he can shepherd Nairo Quintana to Payolle then he can go for the stage win in the final kilometre. Joaquim Rodriguez has had a poor season, by some measures his worst ever so far, but he looked frisky two days ago.

Once again Adam Yates has a good sprint too from a small group and if Geraint Thomas is there he could pop up for the win.

Romain Bardet tried a late attack in Le Lioran and was quickly marked. His modus operandi of a late attack over the top of a climb and exploitation of the ensuing descent are becoming obvious and he’s not going to get much room as he sits tight on GC. I was thinking of tipping Tony Gallopin too but during last night’s The Cycling Podcast the Tour’s voice of radio course Seb Piquet he was on duty fetching water bottles for the team which suggests he wasn’t taking it easy for today’s big test. Less likely to win in Thibaut Pinot but watch to see how he fares, there are doubts over his form and there’s no hiding on the Aspin.

Will Chris Froome deliver a knockout blow? It’s possible that Team Sky set an asphyxiating pace into the steepest section of the Aspin at which point Froome attacks and maintains his lead on the descent. Unlikely though and we should see the main contenders mark each other. Richie Porte is the exception here, he has the zip in his legs to clip away and some may not chase him knowing if they do then Tejay van Garderen can counter.

As for the breakaway picks we’ve yet to discover who are the riders with the kind of form that allows them to go in the moves time after time so instead it’s by reputation and being far down on GC instead. So Stephen Cummings, Jarlinson Pantano and Rui Costa are three picks. More leftfield options are Nicolas Edet and Fabrice Jeandesboz as two unheralded climbers.

And of course, to look back on yesterday:
Cav!!!!

Ok, I’ve now had coffee and am awake enough to comment.

I’m hoping this is the day that Le Tour wakes up, it’s almost felt like a training ride for much of the first week and I hope that today we’ll see some fireworks. Perhaps not for GC but at least some of the climbers.

The day looks like a Dan Martin day but he feels like too much of a GC threat to be let go, Adam Yates though is not, so I’ll go with him. There’s also the chance of a traditional Sky attack to get some seconds into the rest, what price on Froome adding half a minute?

But no, I shall stick with Adam Yates.

Good effort lunge 🙂 cheeky side bet on sky doing a bit of dick measuring? Remind everyone who’s in charge?

How far down is Nibali at the mo? (14 minutes – just checked.) If he can stay with the bunch to the top of Col d’Aspin will he attack down the descent, just so that his tour isn’t a disaster?

When was the last time GC contendors where 5+ mins down ? I don’t recall such a big gap, no one looks or sounds worried just curious.

Looking forward to todays stage

(Thanks again for thread)

When was the last time GC contendors where 5+ mins down ? I don’t recall such a big gap, no one looks or sounds worried just curious.

It’s not unusual for big gaps to be allowed before the mountains. GVA can lose that 5 mins – and far more – to the GC contenders in the last few km of a mountain stage. (I’m trying to remember to how far ahead of the GC riders Voeckler was allowed to get in the first year he wore yellow?)

They will take that gap easily, again no rush to get yellow as you have to defend it then.

Just checked – Voeckler was 9 mins 35 ahead of the first GC rider, Armstrong, after stage 5, 2004.

I predict the GC favourites will come in pretty much together – maybe one or two will be dropped if the are off form and we haven’t found out yet. Aspin isn’t that long or hard.

Winner – Bardet.

@Idle and @mike thanks

I predict the GC favourites will come in pretty much together – maybe one or two will be dropped if the are off form and we haven’t found out yet. Aspin isn’t that long or hard.

Bertie could be in bother though, he was really suffering yesterday. I wonder if Froome or another team will put the hammer down to get him to retire before he has the chance to recover?

Be awesumz to see Dan Martin take a stage win

I reckon Romain Bardet will take it, the GC lot will all be bungee corded together (until the Alps) Dan Martin will have his work cut out since he’ll have Zero support for his Etixx teammates, Rodriguez could pull this one off if the CG lot don’t tie him down and ask him to do some work (which he hates doing) Outside punt, I have 2 – 1) Vanmarcke since he can both climb and suffer in the heat, a powerful guy who isn’t really marked out in the CG cloak and 2) Danny Navaro of Cofidis.. Danny was once Contadors left shoulder, a climbing domestique who could out climb Berite if given the Go to do so, if he can get support from his team until D’Aspin then he could just do it.

Fave – Bardet
Punt – Vanmarcke
Punt – Navaro

Unless a break is given loads of time I don’t see them holding out. I don’t think the Aspin is that steep or tricky so the Sky and Movistar trains will motor up it and mop them up. The descent is meant to be pretty straightforward too so maybe not a day for a risk taking descender. Reckon it’ll be a sprint from a select group. Bit predictable but Dan Martin or drug cheat Valverde FTW.

Bardet
Yates
Martin

Should be a good day for team justgofaster 8)

Froome will roll in not losing time.

GC boys will come out swinging on the big climb and it will hurt Bertie

I dont expect anything decisive today but we will see who is in form and who is not.

No one will win it but some people tour hopes may well be over by the end of the day.

Which of the main climbers is the best descender? There is a risk here that you expend a lot of energy getting to the top of the hill only to lose some of that advantage on the way down if you aren’t skilled. Better to preserve energy for the pure mountain top finishes with less risk?

Sky will be ramping up the pace to test the opposition. A few of the less well supported climbers will have a go as they have less to lose. My predictions will be totally wrong.

No one will win it but some people tour hopes may well be over by the end of the day.

Pinot to be the big loser today? He’s looked a bit off form. Would be a shame.

Which of the main climbers is the best descender?

From what I’ve read it’s not a particularly technical descent.

Does Cycling News not do its blow by blow blog updates ? That was a good way to stealth watch at work.

http://live.cyclingnews.com

Cav and Sagan in an early break. Long way out for intermediate sprint points!

I’m backing two:

This looks like a Valverde stage to me. Not enough vertical M’s to tire him and still has a youthful turn of speed. I’ll refrain on speculating exactly how he manages this…

If Eddie Boss is climbing well, I can see him descending and sprinting from a small group. Similar to his predecessor Thor.

interesting that cav is up for green jersey points ! why would he be if bailing early ? the rest breakaway will be a little peeved that Cav and Sagan are there, lotto soudal and Etixx are in hot pursuit at the head of the peloton at the mo 🙂

shits and giggles

here we go indeed ! 49.4km in the first hour 😯

why would he be if bailing early ?

He won’t be bailing now he’s shown his form. There will be a lot of tempo climbing with the autobus – for training purposes of course. He’s following a structured training program this year ( afirst, apparently) and I suspect it’s being rewritten to get him to recover for Paris!

A mighty break…

Greg Van Avermaet (BMC), Alexis Vuillermoz, Jan Bakelants (Ag2r-La Mondiale), Vincenzo Nibali (Astana), Luis Mate (Cofidis), Simon Geschke (Giant-Alpecin), Daryl Impey (Orica-Bike Exchange), Tony Martin (Etixx-QuickStep), Tsgabu Grmay (Lampre-Merida), Sylvain Chavanel (Direct Energie), Cancellara and Jasper Stuyven (Trek-Segafredo), Oliver Naesen (IAM Cycling), Dani Navarro (Cofidis), Pierre-Luc Perichon (Fortuneo-Vital Concept), Alexey Lutsenko (Astana), Steve Cummings (Dimension Data), Cesare Benedetti, Paul Voss (Bora-Argon 18), Jurgen Roelandts (Lotto Soudal), Angel Vicioso (Katusha), Kristijan Durasek (Lampre-Merida), Antoine Duschesne (Direct Energie), Borut Bozic (Cofidis), Alex Howes, Matti Breschel, Sebastian Langeveld (Cannondale), Vasil Kiryienka (Sky), Paul Martens (LottoNL-Jumbo), Gorka Izagirre (Movistar).

With over 5 mins already that’s going to stick. Peloton seems uninterested at the moment.

Bolleaux, had Porte down for it today. Harrumph.

Throwing my optimistic 2p in for a Cummings win today.

That’s a big group with some serious riders to get such a lead. The GC teams are going to have to get the peloton moving.

That’s a serious break. Kiriyenka and Martin in any break is going to give you a great chance. If it gets to the line GVA looks to be the best sprint in the group to me. Cummings could take a flyer I guess, or Chavanel to attack on the final climb?

How much time does GvA have to gain before he starts becoming a threat?

Hmm, Sky have woken up and seem to be towing the peleton. The break is splitting a bit too bit the look of it, GVA looks deep in the pain cave whenever he moves to the front.

80k to go, Sky to catch the break at the bottom of d’Aspin and attack perhaps?

How much time does GVA have to gain to become a threat?

Lots. I reckon he’d need at least 15 or 20 minutes to even enter thoughts when they get to the real hills.

hels – Member
Does Cycling News not do its blow by blow blog updates ? That was a good way to stealth watch at work.

They also have a really good Tour Tracker app

If GvA gets an hour or two then maybe they’ll start getting worried 🙂

I thought Cav & Sagan were supposed to be in that break?
Sorry, I can only ‘watch’ via occasionally checking in on here!

They were, there was a small break out at the start that got caught. This monster break came off the back of that first group.

Are they over cote du capvern yet?

Is Nibali already considered not a threat?

@thestabiliser – the lead group have just gone over the summit, main group now 4’06” back

Are they over cote du capvern yet?

Just now.