What’s your numbers folks?

Margin and direction.

Government +2 for my guess with a couple of tories crossing over.

May will win by 9
No tory to vote aye

10% chance of a centric revolution with backbenchers from both sides of the house uniting behind a new leader to actually break the deadlock.

90% chance the commons will forget yesterday’s lack of confidence in the current government and suddenly remembering they’re completely confident of them and May surviving by the thinest of margins.

Corbyn and May being the only leaders who could feasibly lose to each other.

Anyway, +3 for Confident.

With great sadness I expect a narrow win for the nays. Even if the yays won Theresa would still have two weeks to amend policy and regain confidence if she chose too.

All tories and DUP will, I think, vote confidence. All other parties will vote no confidence. Giving a slim win for May.

No MP in government is really likely to vote against their own party. She does have 177 who voted against her at the party leadership vote, but they aren’t likely to favour Corbyn/Labour.

Some of her more outspoken critics (within her own party) are speaking in her favour. So still a Conservative government, safe for 12 months but completely unable to get anything through the House. They probably couldn’t even pass wind, let alone legislation, at the moment.

I wonder now, if she might win with a bigger majority than tories and DUP, spelling the end of Corbyn.

May to lose by 10. Sufficient ERG nutters see it as their chance of power – see Gove and Johnson (B) at the referendum.

May will win by no more than 5.
Won’t change anything.
I see Cameron has said he is not responsible. Deluded and entitled.

May to win, just, Corbyn steps down, Lammy to become new leader of Labour and properly get behind 2nd ref/revoke article 50/stay

I can’t understand why they’re wasting (yet another) day debating this. Propose the motion, have the vote there and then. I can’t see anybody being influenced by the intervening gobshitery.

May to win by a reasonable margin (+10).

Corbyn steps down

If only 🙂

£1bn to DUP, best investment she made. Even though total mess, she will survive. Labour have selected the wrong leader for this battle. Shame.

£1bn to DUP, best bribe she made.

May to win by a reasonable margin (+10).

Oh yeah… my reasoning being that no Tory MP would willingly sack themselves.

£1bn to DUP, best bribe she made

I stand corrected.
Wish I could master the quote thing.

Re: Lammy to replace Comerade Corbyn – that would make things interesting – a credible opposition at last…

Damn it!

She lives until she presents the same bill nobody will support back to the house.
Stalemate needs to be broken, perhaps as suggested above a labour change could do that.

Re: Lammy to replace Comerade Corbyn – that would make things interesting – a credible opposition at last…

Maybe in 5+ years, given the level of racism involved in brexit, I fear a black leader would just muddy the waters even further. It is a shame, but now is not the moment.

Majority of 19 for “strong and stable”. I could weep.

Well then, one thing we have learned over this political farce is this..

Make shite decisions and you will be held to both account and critical analysis.

In public.

Which is cool in my book.

325 to 306. That’s 52% / 48%. So who didn’t vote (apart from Sinn Fein)?

“Re: Lammy to replace Comerade Corbyn – that would make things interesting – a credible opposition at last…”

On R4 this morning he sounded the most sensible of Labour MP’s. Gently mocking the Leadership of Corbyn, but not actually coming out to say he is useless, but the tone was there that that is what he thought.
Comparing his speaking to someone like Diane Abbot shows how badly run the Labour party is. Every time she pops up on the radio, she sounds like a disaster zone – why do they keep shoving her into the role? She cannot reply to queries well enough, and in the end makes herself and her party look very amateurish.
Yet David Lammy sounded like a Tory was being interviewed today, very professional, didnt try to dodge the questions too much, and did try to answer them.

This should be the time that Corbyn resigns.
He has wasted a day of Parliamentary time to debate a vote that he would never win, when there are far more important things to be debated.

Yet David Lammy sounded like a Tory was being interviewed today, very professional, didnt try to dodge the questions too much, and did try to answer them.

Hang on are you saying Tories don’t try to dodge the questions too much, and do try to answer them?

What I’m saying is that when the tories are interviewed (on Radio 4, the only thing I listen to in the morning), they sound far more professional than the Labour interviewees.
David Lammy sounded really good this morning, definitely the most professional of those queried about this farce. If Diane Abbot / John Mcdonnel or Jeremy Corbyn were on, they would fluster around, and not give any idea what they want, apart from ‘ a general election’ which they undoubtedly would not win with that line up on the front bench.

What I’m saying is that when the tories are interviewed (on Radio 4, the only thing I listen to in the morning), they sound far more professional than the Labour interviewees.

That’s because they are better at not answering the questions they are asked.

It’s a compulsory subject at Eton.

What I’m saying is that when the tories are interviewed (on Radio 4, the only thing I listen to in the morning), they sound far more professional than the Labour interviewees.

The ones I’ve heard recently sound like they are completely stuffed, know it and are not sure how to get out of the situation so keep pedalling the lies/lines