Quintana’s a funny one – a few years ago there was talk of him being a contender to topple Froome but that Quintana never materialised. Whether it’s Quintana himself or Movistar’s tactics I’m not sure. Watching him on the big mountain stages he just seems to lack “race nous” (I’ll admit he’s far more than I’ll ever have) compared to those around him. Unlike Sky/Ineos, Movistar don’t seem to have got the two leaders system sorted out and seem to back the wrong horse on any particular stage.
The French: Not sure if Bardet is up to it, he didn’t look that sharp at the Dauphiné but he could have been just keeping himself in reserve. I like Alaphilippe, very much in the old style of rider, but whether he can translate his classics form to the three weeks of Le Tour is another matter.
Thomas has been keeping under the radar a bit but given DB’s usual attention to detail I’ve no doubt he’ll be ready. As noted above crashing out of the TdS has meant less race conditioning – it’s all very well putting the numbers out in training but those need to be applied to the dynamics on the road.
Podium prediction: Thomas, Fuglsang, Bardet (maybe)*.
*That’s going to come back to haunt me isn’t it? 😀