The Monty Hall problem (or 2 goats and a car)

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  • The Monty Hall problem (or 2 goats and a car)
  • I liked the ‘goating out’ too 🙂

    Premier Icon Cougar
    Subscriber

    (-:

    Sounds a lot worse than it is, doesn’t it. I may have to see if I can slot it discreetly into unrelated conversation at some point. Maybe my next team meeting.

    ds1
    Member

    On your first choice you are much more likely to pick a goat. Therefore conclude that you have. So when they show where the other goat is, it’s much more likely that the car is behind the remaining unopened door.

    Easy!

    What I don’t understand is this: in the last episode of Star Trek Voyager, which I only watched last week, Voyager is heading towards the exit of the transwarp hub but is being chased by a Borg sphere. Voyager’s shields are down and Tuvok says ‘the only exit is back the way we came’. Cut to next scene, the sphere exits the hub near earth and is blown up by other starships, and after that out comes Voyager! WTF?

    fourbanger
    Member

    If this were a real life situation tried 99 times, are you telling me that if I stick I’ll win on average 33 time and if I change I’ll win 66 times? I’ll bet on average it’ll be 50 50.

    RealMan
    Member

    If this were a real life situation tried 99 times, are you telling me that if I stick I’ll win on average 33 time and if I change I’ll win 66 times? I’ll bet on average it’ll be 50 50.

    Try it. Just get like two 10p coins and one 20p, and see what happens. Do it 10 or 20 times. I did it 10 times, and got the 20p 6 times, and the 10p 4 times, changing every time. Not very conclusive of course, its one time off 5/5, would be better to repeat it.

    Also doing it for yourself makes it so obvious. You realise if you decide to change before you begin, you just have to pick up a 10p to win the 20p. You have a 2/3 chance of picking up a 10p. If you choose not to change before you play, you have to pick up the 20p, of which you have a 1/3 chance of winning it.

Viewing 5 posts - 41 through 45 (of 45 total)

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