So immigration may have a negative or positive impact on jobs and wages for British workers; so far, the evidence suggests that the direct impacts have been rather small.

So basically no evidence that it has actually increased wages as THM was suggesting…..

immigration has a positive impact on wages in the UK.

So immigration may have a negative or positive impact on jobs and wages for British workers; so far, the evidence suggests that the direct impacts have been rather small.

So basically no evidence that it has actually decreased wages as footflaps was suggesting…..

immigration has a positive impact on wages in the UK.

[/quote]

Eff Tee Eff Dubbleyou.

So basically no evidence that it has actually decreased wages as footflaps was suggesting…..

Although it doesn’t seem they were looking at the specific roles, more the general affect on the economy, which are two very different things.

What I said was

I’m not blaming anyone, but if you increase the pool of labour faster than the economy is growing (in any market), it will drive down wages for that labour pool.

As an example of this effect, we outsource stuff to India rather than employ more local SW coders, which keeps wages lower locally. We even have Indian coders in our UK office (on 1/3 the wage of the locals) which means the mean SW coder wage has gone down and local people who might want a job with us have to compete with Indians on 1/3 the wage. If we can buy that skill in India we will do so.

Not that I’m against immigration, I just don’t think it’s 100% rosy for everyone….

I live in a country where over 50% of the population is immigrant. Other than voting (which needs a Luxembourg passport) there’s nothing a native has a right to that I don’t, and this from a socially quite conservative country. Britain benefits from immigration and whilst, yes, there are things that don’t go well, the idea of returning to a Europe before open borders is quite abhorrent.

As for benefits, should I be able to claim UK benefits if I lose my job here even though I pay no taxes in the UK now? Should I retire on a UK state pension if I have 15 years of working in the UK and 30 in Luxembourg?

Edit. Double post

footflaps – Member
So basically no evidence that it has actually increased wages as THM was suggesting…..

Incorrect. Just that the quote provided above does not answer your question directly although it does highlight the relevant points.

At the aggregate level, the evidence shows:

1. Immigration has a net positive impact on overall wages
2. (As stated above this is because it increases the demand (more) as well as the supply of labour
3. The effect differed by wage category
4. There is some evidence that immigration exerts downward pressure on low skilled workers BUT
5. The main losers are recent immigrants
6. The overall impact at all levels however is small (as is often the case with immigration) and other factors are much more important

Blaming Johnny Foreigner for downward pressure on wages is wrong but that will not stop the xenophones from arguing on that very basis in all parties.

Don’t confuse outsourcing with outsourcing with immigration and the fact that immigrants do not just increase the supply of labour they also increase it’s demand. As someone quoted above, non-economists tend to miss this basic point.

@tmh there is a world of difference with regard to the economic benefit or otherwise between uncontrolled and unskilled immigration and controlled immigration of skilled workers or talented students. You use the word “average”, that covers a multitude of sins and the situation which exists now within the EU is unprecedented and so historical studies are of limited use. Where you can be sure that immigration is beneficial is if you set up a system (eg Aussie style points) which ensures you get the people you need.

The thing is that the UK does get the people it needs. If it didn’t need unskilled labour they wouldn’t get jobs.

My MP has emailed this letter to all the constituents on her list. It’s also going to some local papers:

This month we have had two important parliamentary by-elections. Important because we are now only 7 months from a General Election and important because of the UKIP surge that was seen in both. By-elections are always an opportunity for the electorate to register protest between General Elections but this close to May 2015 I don’t think we can dismiss the outcomes so easily and because I think that politicians should be truthful I wanted to be up front about where I stand on the issues that came out of both of these by-elections.

It is clear that voters are concerned about immigration but I think it is important to get the whole issue into perspective. The UK is the 6th richest country in the world. It has got rich and stayed rich on immigration. Over generations immigrants have come to this country, worked for it, fought for it and even died for it. My family were immigrants and so were many of yours. So whilst I do agree that we need to have clear policies on immigration that attracts skills and innovation that we lack and that contributes to our economy not take away from it and I also believe that we need strong border controls that prevent those who have no right to be here from getting here and staying here. I don’t believe that we can turn our back on the rest of the world, nor do I believe it would be in the country’s interests to do so.

I am also concerned about all the negative, one-sided propaganda that is generated about the EU and its impact on our lives. I support our membership of the EU for many economic reasons not least the many hundreds of thousands of NE jobs that depend on our membership. I am also keenly aware that before the EU was formed we, in Europe, committed genocide on one another every 30 years or so. 50 million people died in the 2nd World War, most of them were civilians. Less than 30 years before that there was the carnage of the 1st World War where my family and almost every other family in the NE were bereaved. Before that Crimea, the Franco-Russian Wars, the Franco-German Wars, Trafalgar, Waterloo and on and on and on. The EU is not perfect, it needs reform and despite it we still have wars and people still get killed but since its inception there are far fewer of our young men, our fathers, husbands, sons and daughters killed in wars in Europe.

Pat Glass MP

@neil, thanks for posting such an interesting and passionate message. I would make 2 points however.

The UK may indeed have gotten rich on immigration (I do have some questions on that statement) but it did so with controlled immigration before the EU free for all of the last 10-15 years. What concerns me is we could get a whole lot poorer if the current situation persists and indeed as is likely without fundamental change, intensifies

We are all thankful that Europe has by and large lived in peace since 1945, closer economic ties and a vested interest in co-operation have played a part in that. But again 60 years of peace where achieved, in part, via an EU which focused on free trade and not widespread freedom of movement. I would argue quite strongly that the recent EU expansion including the automatic adoption of policies which where developed when the EU looked very different has done much to destabilise Europe and see a worrying rise in more extreme politics.

The thing is that the UK does get the people it needs. If it didn’t need unskilled labour they wouldn’t get jobs.

So why have we got so many unemployed unskilled people?

The thing is that the UK does get the people it needs. If it didn’t need unskilled labour they wouldn’t get jobs.

@atlaz, in addition to the point made by @mudshark you have the fact that EU immigrants don’t have to get a job, for example they can come here and sleep rough around West London and beg on Oxford St by day, they get deported (at great cost) then they come straight back. Plus the fact they can come and further undercut the wages of existing low paid employees. You can come to the UK without a job, that’s a situation in most countries with immigration controls that you cannot do, you must get a job offer first and the employer must prove you bring unique skills or that a local person was not available to do the job

I am also keenly aware that before the EU was formed we, in Europe, committed genocide on one another every 30 years or so. 50 million people died in the 2nd World War, most of them were civilians. Less than 30 years before that there was the carnage of the 1st World War where my family and almost every other family in the NE were bereaved. Before that Crimea, the Franco-Russian Wars, the Franco-German Wars, Trafalgar, Waterloo and on and on and on.

It’s astonishing how some people still regularly trot out this bollocks that if it wasn’t for the EEC/EU Britain France and Germany would be constantly fighting each other.

And I have no idea how the EEC/EU is responsible for avoiding repeats of “the Franco-Russian Wars”, did Russia join the EU without me noticing ?

.

So whilst I do agree that we need to have clear policies on immigration that attracts skills and innovation that we lack…

Surely skilled foreign workers are the people we least want to attract, or are the three quarter of a million young unemployed in the UK not entitled to learn skills ?

The UK may indeed have gotten rich on immigration (I do have some questions on that statement) but it did so with controlled immigration before the EU free for all of the last 10-15 years.

Not sure about that?!?
Not even sure about free for alll. But anyway we are signed up to a treaty that has freedom of movement of people as one of its core principles. You and I have both taken advantage of that:

What concerns me is we could get a whole lot poorer if the current situation persists and indeed as is likely without fundamental change, intensifies

Evidence so far points in the other direction. Most scare stories on immigration fall over as quickly as an Alex Salmond one.

Surely skilled foreign workers are the people we least want to attract

On what grounds? I employ a high percentage of very skilled foreign workers and they in turn allow me to employ domestic workers. Win, win.

or are the three quarter of a million young unemployed in the UK not entitled to learn skills ?

Non sequitur. They are entitled to learn skills as well not instead.

On what grounds?

The second part of the sentence which you dissected explains.

.

Non sequitur. They are entitled to learn skills as well not instead.

It’s remarkable logic which brings you to the conclusion that people will be trained in skills when fully trained workers are available. Historically training has been offered to replace those skilled workers that retire/die/leave the industry, there is no need to train anyone if there is a constant supply of skilled workers.

Well that is a very narrow perspective that I don’t share

The same narrow logic that only views immigration as affecting the supply of labour.

Funnily enough I “train” to grow businesses not to replace others. Again a wider perspective required!

So why have we got so many unemployed unskilled people?

Because they were already here and already unemployed?

If Jonny foreigner wants to go through the upheaval and leave their country to work here, I applaud them.

Some of you might want to trace your family history btw, you might realise some way back in history, it’s what your relatives did.

Because they were already here and already unemployed?

So there are jobs for them but they don’t want them? Or they truly are useless?

I recently hired an IT worker from Bangalore, who moved over here with his wife.

We spent quite a bit of time trying to find anyone with similar skills (nothing special, just able to understand embedded computer programming) and he was really our only option. There were only a handful of UK “native” applicants, and they were all totally unsuitable for one reason or another (duffers for the most part).

EDIT:

So there are jobs for them but they don’t want them? Or they truly are useless?

Who’s going to say it then?

oldnpastit – Member
I recently hired an IT worker from Bangalore, who moved over here with his wife.

Precisely, exactly, definitely the sort of immigrant we want and need. Trouble is, the country is not infinitely large, or wealthy, so we only have capacity for a limited number of immigrants each year.

The current, EU-driven immigration system sees us swamped with a lot of low value un-skilled workers, only some of whom are actually needed and none of whom are really capable of helping us push GDP-per-head up.

As for the EU, if ever there were a more blatant way of rewarding failure and punishing success: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-29751124

@digga +1

digga -1

As for the EU, if ever there were a more blatant way of rewarding failure and punishing success: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-29751124

We do most of our trade with Europe because of the EU free trade agreement. We can afford the money because it will give us more back.

A European Commission study of the single market in 2007 found that the EU GDP was raised by 2.2 per cent (€233 billion) and 2.75 million jobs were created between the introduction of the single market in 1992 and 2006. For the UK, that increase in GDP would have been around £25 billion. The Government’s Department of Business, Innovation & Skills estimates that EU Member States trade twice as much with each other as a result of the single market – which they estimate has meant that increased trade within the EU since the 1980s could have been worth around six per cent higher income per capita in the UK. Exports to other EU countries account for 51 per cent of the UK’s exports of goods and services, worth £200 billion; trade with the US, by contrast, constitutes 13 per cent of UK exports.

http://www.euromove.org.uk/index.php?id=15296

The current, EU-driven immigration system sees us swamped with a lot of low value un-skilled workers, only some of whom are actually needed and none of whom are really capable of helping us push GDP-per-head up.

The Migration Observatory has reviewed the evidence and found that the net GDP gain from immigration is +0.45%. Of course it would be more if there weren’t as many (“swamped” is almost certainly sensationalist nonsense) un-skilled workers it’d go up more, but since they put it up anyway we can afford a small amount of slack. The majority of immigrants increase the GDP. There is plenty of evidence posted in this thread that shows that the situation regarding EU immigrants is more beneficial than all immigrants.

http://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/briefings/fiscal-impact-immigration-uk

@mubro – we wouldn’t stop trading with Europe if we weren’t in the EU. We’d have new trade agreements.

we wouldn’t stop trading with Europe if we weren’t in the EU. We’d have new trade agreements.

Plus whatever unilateral levies etc a government could impose whenever it likes. I’m not sure many companies would appreciate that risk.

Of course we wouldn’t stop trading but our trade would go down, a number of large companies (Nissan, Honda, Toyota etc) would jump ship to the continent to keep trading in the common market and dodge the import taxes and so on and all the “cheap shitty EU labour” would go back too. But then there’d be no jobs at all for anyone left here and GDP would go down. And since there has been an actual scientific study showing that membership of the EU has pushed the UK’s GDP up by £25bn I think it’d be fair to assume it’d go down by just as much.

Alternatively we would “do a Norway” and not be part of the EU and still have to play by their rules of free trade and free movement with none of the benefits and a reduction in trade- maybe not to pre-EU levels, but a reduction in trade and GDP none the less. Especially given we don’t have as rich a source of income as Norway and that a lot of the companies that do major trade with the EU will still jump ship to be remain in the common market rather than an unstable fringe.

http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countries-and-regions/countries/norway/

Anyway, that is not the point of this thread. The point is that a lot of figures have been put up showing the free movement of people in the EU is a good thing and some people are happy to ignore that in order to support their own beliefs.

Is that just your conjecture, or do you have any proof?