Viewing 40 posts - 241 through 280 (of 423 total)
  • The Covid Inquiry.
  • Sandwich
    Full Member

    The only part of it done well was the vaccine rollout. Everything else was cack.

    Not quite, the treasury IT roll-out for working from home for HMRC and the income support, was an object lesson in getting things right first time (or right enough to have a functioning work-force). From memory it was all going very well after a month, the first couple of weeks had some wrinkles to be ironed out.

    reluctantjumper
    Full Member

    I believe TiRed on the R number calculations around the beginning as there must have been absolutely huge political pressure from the top to play those down, keep events like Cheltenham Races etc going and for Johnson, Sunak and Co to try and ride it out to come out of the other side looking like heroes. There was lots of talk in the press of the vagaries of everything at that time and also an immediate resistance to Following the Science until it was obvious that the experts were on the right track. It’s quite possible that the R range was 3-5 days across a few reports, leading to two different answers to the same question at the time. Just go look back at the original thread and TiRed explaining the vagaries of existing models with the limited data even a few weeks later and you can see how this situation would arise.

    Whitty was specifically worried that people wouldn’t follow the advice or would only do so for a limited time.

    This is the only positive part so far, hitty and the govt didn’t think the general public would adhere to any lockdown rules for very long and we all proved them very wrong on this. I remember the adherence for the first few weeks of lockdown one being incredibly well obeyed by nearly everyone. It was the one beacon of hope for a lot of people that following the rules would keep us safer than other countries like Italy and gave rise the NHS pan banging etc.

    ElShalimo
    Full Member

    Don’t forget that Atletico Madrid played Liverpool around the sma etime as Cheltenham and over 5000 fans came here from Spain which was many weeks ahead of us. They were touting herd immunity early on too. I think that Vallance was involved early on too.

    MoreCashThanDash
    Full Member

    Not quite, the treasury IT roll-out for working from home for HMRC and the income support, was an object lesson in getting things right first time (or right enough to have a functioning work-force). From memory it was all going very well after a month, the first couple of weeks had some wrinkles to be ironed out.

    I wasn’t with HMRC at the time, but it was a heck of an achievement.

    bensales
    Free Member

    .

    kelvin
    Full Member

    explicitly describing a 5 day doubling on the 16th March, which according to his recent testimony was *after* he had seen the data that convinced him that the doubling time was 3 days

    He had two roles, surely. One was a spokesperson delivering a consensus position to the public, the other was seeking and evaluating the best new evidence available and working with others to constantly improve that consensus. That the very public role would be falling behind the private role is no surprise.

    ElShalimo
    Full Member

    What happened today at the inquiry?

    salad_dodger
    Full Member

    Prof JVT went into great detail about the death threats he and his family received while he tried to save lives. Conspiracy theory nut jobs can get in the sea.

    binners
    Full Member

    We were informed by Jonathan Van-Tam that the first time anyone outside numbers 10 & 11 Downing Street heard about Rishi’s Eat Out To Kill Everyone scheme was when they saw it on the news.

    As Chris Whitty volunteered yesterday, Rishi didn’t think he’d like the answers he’d get if he asked the questions, so he just never bothered and went ahead anyway, just like Truss with the OBR and her mini-budget.

    When they said they’d had enough of experts, they really meant it

    frankconway
    Full Member

    We’ve now had Patrick Vallance, Chris Whitty and Jonathan Van-Tam all state categorically they were neither consulted nor told about sunak’s Eat Out scheme.

    Can’t wait to see lil rish! attempt to talk his way out of that one.

    It is, of course, perfectly possible that 3 eminent scientific and medical leaders got together and agreed to lie and shift the responsibility when it was clear they would be asked about this.

    In fact, as I think about it that’s what must have happened…

    dantsw13
    Full Member

    Sunaks a politician with slightly more brain than BOJO, so he didnt downright lie in his written statement. He wrote that nobody had voiced any concerns to him about EOTHO. Which I guess is true, because none of the scientists knew anything about it!!

    thecaptain
    Free Member

    He had two roles, surely. One was a spokesperson delivering a consensus position to the public, the other was seeking and evaluating the best new evidence available and working with others to constantly improve that consensus. That the very public role would be falling behind the private role is no surprise.

    Do you seriously think he stood up there and said something purely scientific (not policy-related) that he, and the other scientists in SAGE, believed to be false, and that SAGE was pressurised (by whom?) into writing something that the scientists present believed to be false into their minutes, and he didn’t think to mention this at any stage in his written or spoken testimony to either the current inquiry or the select committee back in 2020, or in any other interview? And none of the other scientists involved have mentioned this complete breakdown of normal ethics and behaviour either? If you think SAGE weren’t prepared to speak the scientific truth about the doubling time, how on earth can you believe that they were nevertheless asking for lockdown (a highly political statement)?

    It’s a hell of a conspiracy theory, but also completely absurd, especially when there is a very simple explanation for the contradiction, which is that he’s confused the two weekends in his mind, and managed to misread (selectively read) the SAGE minutes in such a way as to obscure the contradiction. SAGE changed its mind over the weekend of 21-22 March, as is very clearly documented in the minutes of 16, 18, 20 and 23 March. There was surely some debate about the doubling time earlier than that (as @TiReD mentions, but lots people up and down the country were shaking their heads at this point), but the arguments for 3d doubling were very firmly rejected by SAGE on both the 16th and 18th of March. They didn’t credit this value with the hint of a possibility, even saying on the 18th that actions already recently taken (such as the measures announced on the 16th) would likely be slowing the doubling time beyond the 5-7 day estimate they quote. 5-7 days! They even had an uncertainty range!

    Vallance has not produced a single document, email, WhatsApp or anything else to back up his claim to have changed his mind over the weekend of 14-15 March. There are numerous documents demonstrating the converse, that the belief in 5 day doubling persisted at least though the 16-18 March (SAGE meetings on those days) and was first changed by SAGE on the 23rd, following the SPI-M meeting on the 20th. He doesn’t try to put so much as a fag-paper between his views and SAGE’s views, BTW, considering them broadly interchangeable, using “we” to mean the scientists generally etc. If SAGE had imposed views on him that he strongly disagree with, he’d hardly have kept that a secret, it would be an important part of explaining his actions.

    thecaptain
    Free Member

    I know no-one else is really interested in getting at the truth, but I’ve now written to the inquiry outlining the repeated discrepancies between Vallance’s testimony, and what the contemporaneous records actually show (ie, the SAGE and SPI-M-O minutes around that time, together with the press conference on the 16th where he directly refers to the 5 day doubling time that SAGE was continuing to assume).

    theotherjonv
    Full Member

    Good for you. In fact I suggested you do it a week ago.

    Have you sent any of this [edit – your blog info which I have read for the first time] to the enquiry? Seems reasonable to be asking them directly?

    and

    I assume there’s opportunity to call them again once evidence is gathered and inconsistencies identified?

    which makes 

    I know no-one else is really interested in getting at the truth

    not the truth 😉

    thecaptain
    Free Member

    not the truth

    It’s essential to always remember that no-one is infallible, not even me, which is why the documentary evidence is so important. The way in which scientists’ statements have been taken as gospel truth (by journalists reporting on the inquiry), without any rudimentary fact-checking, is quite alarming.

    I have just searched for the SAGE minutes on the inquiry website. You might think they would be considered are an important part of the evidence base, and they are frequently but selectively quoted from by various participants in their written and spoken submissions

    The SAGE minutes of the 13th March are there, as are the SAGE minutes of the 23rd March.

    The SAGE minutes of the 16th and 18th March are not on the inquiry website, ie they have not been submitted into evidence, and therefore will not have been read by the inquiry team. It’s almost like no-one wants them to be read in full. Given the specific focus of this part of the inquiry on that specific week, and the presence of minutes either side of that week, this seems a remarkable omission, but I realise that drawing attention to this makes me sound like a conspiracy theorist. The minutes are available from the SAGE website itself, fortunately.

    crazy-legs
    Full Member

    London Mayor Sadiq Khan and Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham up today.

    Khan already saying that the Government completely sidelined him in the early days.

    binners
    Full Member

    That was surely the issue from day one though?

    Pretty much everyone was sidelined by the real PM, Dominic Cummings, and his ‘I know best’ philosophy on pretty much everything as he centralised control and decision-making.

    Its the same story with everyone. I doubt Andy Burnham is going to be very complimentary. It was obvious that by the time the second lockdown was approaching, relationships with Number 10 hadn’t just broken down as entered a war footing. You could probably say the same about all the devolved assemblies, who weren’t consulted at all and just received dictats fired out by Cummings

    martinhutch
    Full Member

    I doubt Andy Burnham is going to be very complimentary.

    A ‘punishment beating’ for Greater Manchester proposed because Andy Burnham opposed Tier 3 without additional financial support for the lowest paid.

    I knew it was bad, but I am staggered by the incompetence, the pettiness, the political games. The opposite of decent government at a time of crisis. Imagine threatening to impose additional restrictions on an entire city’s population out of pure spite at its elected mayor…

    dantsw13
    Full Member

    That sums up the whole levelling up agenda. Vote Blue and we’ll give you funds. Vote for anyone else and we will give you nowt, then blame the opposition for your lack of money.

    matt_outandabout
    Full Member

    Exactly – the priority is mot serving the people and place that is the United Kingdom, it is holding on to power and personal gain in any way you can. Horrid.

    Del
    Full Member

    A ‘punishment beating’ for Greater Manchester proposed because Andy Burnham opposed Tier 3 without additional financial support for the lowest paid.

     JC.

    crazy-legs
    Full Member

    That sums up the whole levelling up agenda. Vote Blue and we’ll give you funds. Vote for anyone else and we will give you nowt, then blame the opposition for your lack of money.

    That’s been the agenda for years. Why do you think the Red Wall went Blue?
    Life is shit, everything is closing down, the town is on its arse, there’s a Labour council (starved of funds).
    Government says “oh, look at your council, they’re a bit shit!”

    Also they love small boats and the EU like a bunch of woke communist bastards. Vote for us!

    Meanwhile all the money has been redirected to nice leafy Kent and Surrey.

    Covid just helped all that along a bit.

    Coyote
    Free Member

    Raab this afternoon. Should be enlightening…

    frankconway
    Full Member

    Kent

    Is your spelling correct?

    binners
    Full Member

    Raab this afternoon.

    I’m sure we’ll all be overwhelmed by the empathy and compassion that pours forth

    His only regret is that he didn’t get to kill them all personally.

    He always has the air of of a man who’s just been disturbed while cutting up the body of a dead prostitute in his bath

    MoreCashThanDash
    Full Member

    Can’t see any feedback here on Gove yesterday?

    From the highlights I read, he seems to have made all the right noises apologising for mistakes and their consequences, without trying to upset anyone he may want to support him going forwards.

    somafunk
    Full Member

    So just his slimly little **** act?

    Kryton57
    Full Member

    It’s on YouTube, and yes.  

    binners
    Full Member

    Matt Hancock about to start his evidence this morning.

    This should be the greatest work of fiction since the last time Boris opened his gob

    theotherjonv
    Full Member

    I hate myself for this, but from the ‘highlights’ I heard on the radio he actually came across ‘OK’

    Nuclear levels of self-confidence – yes, he said, I was fighting hard for what we believed at the DoH and I can see how that came across

    Ring around Care Homes. Yes, we failed in that and it wasn’t an unbroken circle

    Called for lockdown sooner – can’t seem to prove he did this but admits that in hindsight they were 2 weeks too late and cost lives as a result.

    Clearly got stuff wrong as we know they did, but actually seems willing to admit it.

    Suspect normal service to be resumed next week when Boris is up.

    frankconway
    Full Member

    I listened to parts of it and thought he was more honest than other politicians who preceded him.
    As jonv says, normal service will be resumed when johnson takes the stand to perform; then we’ll have sunak – put on sincere face, lie.

    MoreCashThanDash
    Full Member

    From what I’ve heard, Hancock and Gove have at least accepted costly mistakes were made.

    Boris could be fun. I’m hoping the KC exposes him for the incompetent liar that he is.

    binners
    Full Member

    Hancock actually sounded better than any of the other politicians so far, which is hardly a high watermark

    He stuck the boot into Johnson and Cummings, again telling us what we all already know… Cummings was effectively running the country because Boris couldn’t be arsed

    It is however incredible to know that they’d centralised decision making to such a narrow little cabal that the first thing the health Secretary knew about Rishi’s ‘Eat Out To Kill Everyone’ scheme was when he saw it on the news

    Think about that. Absolutely insane!

    Poopscoop
    Full Member

    When Hancock left the building after the grilling it was pretty poignant to see the families of people that lost loved ones standing there in complete silence.

    Far more profound than shouting abuse at him.

    binners
    Full Member

    I don’t know how he, or any of the rest of them sleep at night.

    Oh… hang on a minute… is it because they’re a bunch of self-serving, entitled, narcissistic, sociopathic lunatics

    burko73
    Full Member

    Tell me, what are all the people in the background doing at the enquiry? 

    theotherjonv
    Full Member

    Reporters, relatives, interested onlookers, court officials, etc. 

    Klunk
    Free Member

     self-serving, entitled, narcissistic, sociopathic

    Yep, the whole thing was handled on the basis on how it would affect them personally. they really didn’t give a crap about anything else, not the economy or the health of the nation it was all about them and whether it impinged on their personnal freedoms to live the life  of Riley on the public purse.

    kelvin
    Full Member

    Current feeling… so much of Hancock’s past lies were to politically protect Johnson and Sunak… much as I dislike the man, it really does feel like the biggest problems started at the top, and not with him. Totally complicit in the deceits, but not the main “culprit” when it comes to the extra deaths amongst our families, friends and neighbours.

    Far more profound than shouting abuse at him.

    Agreed. I don’t know how they’ve been so strong and restrained. Amazing people. Very stirring.

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