http://www.bikebiz.com/news/read/uk-cycle-industry-predicted-to-sell-1-million-fewer-bikes-this-year/022040

Discussed this:
http://singletrackworld.com/forum/topic/whyte-bikes-1

and found above http://www.bikebiz.com article.

Didn’t know this. Quite dramatic!

It’s all worth it

There should be a fairly inevitable correction after a period of very rapid growth in cycling as a pastime. Market is becoming saturated, fewer people are joining it and not that many of the existing customers can afford multiple bikes or bike changes at 2.5K plus each.

We need a new standard to force some obsolescence. 🙂

We’ll see.

I hope it improves but nagging doubt.

Less people willing to fork out for the likes of Shimano’s 20%+ price increase shocker! 😯

Why do you think the price went up?

Most industry’s reporting struggling

UK car sales down 11% as well. – I’d like to think that’s because people are using them less but j doubt that. It’ll just be can’t afforditus as every penny gets pinched in the name of a bringing back spitfires 😉

Most of Europe on the other hand experiancing 10-15% growth on last years figures…..

It’s a perfect storm of direct online sales and Brexit at the moment, plus the longer term things of competition from other consumer goods (a bike isn’t the big Christmas toy any more) and the general death of the high street.

But the bike industry has never been particularly profitable…

cycling as a pastime

Aye Martinhutch….maybe that’s the issue…bike industry seeing it as a pastime, not an essential transport mode.

Most of Europe on the other hand experiancing [sic] 10-15% growth on last years figures

That’ll be base effect. I’d much rather have the UK’s economic performance since 2007/8 than most of continental Europe (I live in France).

Europe’s economy is growing because the ECB has unleashed monumental amounts of QE. It is no more real than the UK’s economic growth for the last five years, which has also been based on QE and yet more housing debt.
People in the UK are starting to hold back on big ticket purchases, as housing is slowing and interest rates are going up. At the same time, the renters may actually start saving more as they think they could have a realistic chance to get on the housing ladder in the next five years, whether that be through a Corbyn government or an elongated house price crash.
The UK’s economy is way over-reliant on domestic consumption powered by house price bubbles, and the fall in sterling is helping manufacturing, so overall the UK is on the right path, but it will be a rocky one, especially for people who don’t blink an eye when paying £5k for a new bike as housing is only ever going to go up, innit.

martinhutch – Member
There should be a fairly inevitable correction after a period of very rapid growth in cycling as a pastime. Market is becoming saturated, fewer people are joining it and not that many of the existing customers can afford multiple bikes or bike changes at 2.5K plus each.

This is a far too intelligent answer; lets just blame it on Brexit … far easier option.

How is the US bike market?

The US market was strong – but still the case?

Impact of US bike market to “rest of world” is always high.

Demand, or pressure from brands which try to sell more in “rest of world”.
USA mountain bike brands, UK: moved the prices up as well?

the fall in sterling is helping manufacturing

It isn’t really. Most UK manufacturing is reliant on imports of raw materials and components, the fall in Sterling has harmed that. Then if (when) Brexit imposes border checks and costs, that’ll kill modern JIT manufacturing. Finally, much UK manufacturing is of high-end products which are less price sensitive.

Manufacturing order books are at a 30 year high. All because of the fall in sterling. The challenge now is to develop an industrial strategy to take advantage of this momentum and obviously establish the right trade agreements post-Brexit.
Demand for British products from non EU countries now exceeds that of the EU (long term trend) so despite all the talk of rebalancing the UK economy by politicians over the last 20 years, it is Brexit which is ultimately stimulating that rebalancing – and also deflating housing, which is over-priced by at least a third in London and the South-East.

Also remember that article is on BikeBiz, home of enough doom, gloom and negativity to kill off the confidence of any retailer.

Honestly, they could make “man finds £50 note on the floor” into a bad news story 😆 😆

As others have said, it’s a correction from poor forecasting, bad business sense on some parts, an artificial 5 year bubble post Olympics and a changing global economy and ways of trading.

No point sitting round complaining about a changing world of retail – adapt or die.

Ach, I give up – it’s a holiday, I can’t be bothered arguing with reality-denying Brexiteers.

The industry has been taking the piss pricing wise for several years. The bubble has been passed. As above adapt or die.

I’m with Coops on this one, this is the time of the Prince of Peace after all.
I only came back on this forum to listen to the MIL horror stories for a laugh.
Have a good xmas all.

adapt or die

with or without BREXIT I guess.

bike industry: Guess 80 percent or so of Shimano, SRAM, Fox, Formula … parts are from Asia.

Carbon and aluminium frames: also around 80 percent or so?

Possible “shift”, in near future: end of line assembly will take place in Asia as well?

Possible

adapt or die

strategy?

As above I reckon its a bubble getting ready to burst. In Chester where I live there are 9 bike shops in and around town (11 if you count the two Halfords). Although they’ve all managed to stay in business over the last couple of years I’m sure that number in a city of about 80 thousand people is not sustainable long term and I’ll be amazed if they are all in business at the end of next year.

bencooper – Member
Ach, I give up – it’s a holiday, I can’t be bothered arguing with reality-denying Brexiteers

what is this brexit of which you speak

We need a new standards to force some obsolescence.

Well, changing standards have certainly forced me out of the market.

The media (including STW) pushing £2000 as a beginner price point and the unrelenting charge upmarket haven’t helped either.

MTB is due a replacement tbh, but I won’t be buying anything with Boost, 650b, no front mech option or 35mm bars.
People will only take so much bullshit.

I can’t say I feel sorry for anyone but the smaller manufacturers.

I’m sure that number in a city of about 80 thousand people is not sustainable long term and I’ll be amazed if they are all in business at the end of next year.

what might change the game as well: online trading / direct sales

Cotic Move To Direct Sales Only

Cotic is only one example.
One of the

adapt or die

strategy is direct sales?

Manufacturing order books are at a 30 year high. All because of the fall in sterling. The challenge now is to develop an industrial strategy to take advantage of this momentum and obviously establish the right trade

as ben says material costs have gone up last year stainless reached the same cost as titanium for some parts i make so effectively whilst the order books might be full and there was a big interest in ordering stuff the profit margin was sweet FA and back to square one

MTB is due a replacement tbh, but I won’t be buying anything with Boost, 650b, no front mech option or 35mm bars.
People will only take so much bullshit.

interesting point.
Might be part of the problem!
Bike industry pushed too hard in recent years with “new miracle stuff”?

Possible?

A big factor.

Many people I ride with have never spent £2000 on a bike and never will.
But they used to spend a hell of a lot on parts, clothes, upgrades and holidays.

All money that will in future be spent elsewhere.

No one trusts the industry or the media anymore and it’s entirely their own fault.

No one trusts the industry or the media anymore and it’s entirely their own fault.

very possible.

MTB is due a replacement tbh, but I won’t be buying anything with Boost, 650b, no front mech option or 35mm bars.
People will only take so much bullshit.

Yeah but what is wrong with it? Why are you attached to 135mm QR wheels for instance. The pink bike podcast with the industry was actually very good with people explaining that old road standards don’t really work that well for mtb.

Yeah but what is wrong with it?

It’s cynical bullshit.

Worse than that, it’s cynical bullshit dressed up as progress.

Honestly sticking with something that you did on a road bike sounds like a crap idea. I picked up a boost 650 etc bike, ticked all the boxes, considering I can get all of the old standards brand new and easy I don’t see an issue going forward. though if you refuse to try anything new I don’t see how you can judge it.

Yeah but what is wrong with it? Why are you attached to 135mm QR wheels for instance. The pink bike podcast with the industry was actually very good with people explaining that old road standards don’t really work that well for mtb.

there is nothing wrong with it, it’s the “this new stuff the best thing since sliced bread” and what you’ve got is so shit you are risking life and limb riding it oh and btw we’re not going to support that old crap any more. For only a year later to repeat the trick. So I will ride my singlespeed 26er till the forks explode and replace them with some rigids and the bike industry can **** right off.

it’s the “this new stuff the best thing since sliced bread” and what you’ve got is so shit you are risking live and limb riding it oh and btw we’re not going to support that old crap any more.

Who said all of that? When did you stop being able to get 9sp and 26″ rims I can still find them all over the place.

Did you mean cynics talking bullshit? 😉
If there hadn’t been the baby step of 142 between 135 and 148, there would have been far less outcry. There are far more practical benefits to 148 than 142.

While some “standard” introductions (BB30, BB30a, PF30, BBright, BB90/95, BB86/92, 386 Evo, OSBB in both Alu and Carbon, T47, 35mm bars/stems etc) have been truly cynical, Boost with it’s irritating name seems to me to be the fall guy, but without good reason.

You forgot 650b, the most cynical move of all.
🙂

Ha – good point!

And flat mount road brakes.

Some might suggest they were
deliberately held back until roadies had invested in previous gen disc kit.

Some might suggest

https://www.pinkbike.com/news/bike-standardshow-did-we-get-herea-podcast.html
Take an actual listen to what people doing this are doing here…..

Remind me what can’t you buy again?