TdF Stage 13 – The Final Hour [Spoilers]

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  • TdF Stage 13 – The Final Hour [Spoilers]
  • Premier Icon mrblobby
    Subscriber

    Days gone by we’d have penned this one in as the proper start of the Tour. How times have changed. Sort of feels like we’ve had 12 one day classics in a row in terms of racing and drama!

    llama
    Member

    Sticking my neck out:

    Niballi attacks
    He gets reeled back in (mainly by Porte)
    Valverde then pops up and takes it by a few seconds after being inconspicuous all the way up

    IvanDobski
    Member

    I’d quite like to see Porte put time into Valverde and the rest so he can concentrate on challenging Nibali and not worry too much about defending 2nd.

    The flat section between Palaquit and Chamrousse doesn’t seem to lend itself to a solo attack getting clear before the final climb so I imagine it’ll be an attack on the last climb after setting a fast pace up Palaquit to wear out the domestiques.

    bikebouy
    Member

    I’m up for a break by Rodriguez on the last climb having missed out the other day.

    I’d love to see an attack by an unknown French climber though.. 8)

    llama
    Member

    Rodriguez in an early break that tops the first climb but does not quite beat them up the big one

    DenDennis
    Member

    yes, interesting one indeed.
    my bet is not much will happen from the top GC on the penultimate climb, then once the final climb proper begins, the strategy will unfold.

    who’s team will drive it first though?

    – Astana to ward off attacks, taking on the Sky tactics of the last tours?

    – Sky to put the hurt on early with porte going long?

    not sure- sky and movistar could ‘use’ astana’s train early before making their own assault.

    I for one love watching porte’s open mouthed grin when he’s putting the effort in, makes it look like he’s enjoying it 😛

    Premier Icon Lifer
    Subscriber

    I think Valverde will wait for a few more days.

    My road.cc fantasy team looking good today, Nibali, Porte, Bardet, Pinot, Roche, Purito.

    Paid for it with a poor score yesterday though.

    Premier Icon crazy-legs
    Subscriber

    I’ve ridden up Chamrousse.
    The only thing open at the top was a little cafe which served the biggest and nicest banana split ever. Was much needed after that climb!

    The ride back down was insane although I was disappointed that my max was only 59mph. 60mph would have been nice.

    Really hoping Porte starts eating into Nibali’s time now.

    Premier Icon jambalaya
    Subscriber

    So does Porte have to eat into Nibali’s lead today ? If Nibali puts time into him/other main rivals is it all over ?

    I cannot see Porte going early, Brailsford has to be thinking damage control as if Porte blows up the race is totally over for the team and people will question his selection.

    Premier Icon mrblobby
    Subscriber

    Rodriguez in an early break that tops the first climb but does not quite beat them up the big one

    I’d go for this. Grabs the mountain points on the first one, but the last climb is too long for Purito.

    Valverde is a bit of a dark horse. He’s on form, kept out of trouble, and probably the only one in the top 10 who would take a big risk for the win.

    mudshark
    Member

    Oh just found the STW Road.cc league – missed that somehow. Joining now….

    RealMan
    Member

    The course profile may suggest otherwise, but this is a real mountain stage which the favourites would be wrong not to take seriously! We packed all the difficulties into the last fifty kilometres, including a climb up the little-known Col de Palaquit towards the final hour of racing. With 14.1 km of fluctuating gradients, this will be anything but a joy ride. More than enough to spark an important selection ahead of the final climb up Chamrousse, an 18.2 km mountain with an average gradient of 7.3%.

    Sagan.. 2nd.. Again..

    Tony Martin quickly becoming the fan’s favourite, and with good reason. I’m also feeling quite bad for OGE as they’re putting in tons of effort to try and get a win but just not getting any luck. I hope they manage it soon. I’ve also heard that there may be protests today because of Orica, so we’ll have to hope it doesn’t effect the racing too much.

    [video]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=63aH3aZ2xjk[/video]

    Photos from stage 12.

    Today is possibly the toughest climbing day so far, with a big summit finish. Will Nibali finally crack? I don’t think so, but he might lose time today. I’ll have my eye on Pinot and Porte, but also Bardet. Valverde has been very quiet recently, but I think he’s got something planned, although maybe not for today.

    A few useful links

    Live Cycling News Text Updates
    Steephill
    Official Tour Live Feed App
    Classifications
    Withdrawals
    Fantasy League Standings
    Loser League Standings

    http://www.cyclingnews.com/blogs/robert-millar/robert-millar-who-will-be-the-last-man-standing-in-the-tour-de-franceMillar’s wisdom

    http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/degenkolb-denied-in-tour-de-france-sprint-trentin-relegated

    http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/tiernan-locke-banned-for-two-yearsI really hope he makes up for his mistakes, comes back to the sport, and proves himself

    [video]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gQ25xvUr7zo[/video]

    http://road.cc/content/news/124117-tour-de-france-tech-2014-bryan-coquard%E2%80%99s-europcar-colnago-v1-r-aero-race-bike

    llama
    Member

    So does Porte have to eat into Nibali’s lead today ? If Nibali puts time into him/other main rivals is it all over ?

    I cannot see Porte going early, Brailsford has to be thinking damage control as if Porte blows up the race is totally over for the team and people will question his selection.

    Did you hear him on ITV last night? He basically said: ‘I hope to put time on those _behind_ me’. Sounds like first priority is consolidate 2nd. Unless it’s a bluff and Uncle Dave has a cunning plan.

    Premier Icon mrblobby
    Subscriber

    Unless it’s a bluff and Uncle Dave has a cunning plan.

    After the disaster of losing Froome I suspect Uncle Dave would bite your hand off if you offered him a podium place for another of his riders. Will be all about consolidation and being in the right place in case anything happens to Nibali.

    Premier Icon faustus
    Subscriber

    I agree, Nibali won’t be losing time to Porte. But Porte might hope to gain time on those below him, which he is capable of doing. Really looking forward to tomorrow’s stage, looks like a belter.

    mefty
    Member

    Valverde is a bit of a dark horse. He’s on form, kept out of trouble, and probably the only one in the top 10 who would take a big risk for the win.

    Valverde has never made the podium at the Tour and my guess a podium spot is not something he would risk lightly

    Premier Icon scaredypants
    Subscriber

    I’m going for crash on the penultimate descent due to Nibali pressing hard

    Greipel for the win – appaently he climbs really well

    rusty90
    Member

    if Porte blows up the race is totally over for the team and people will question his selection.

    Ain’t that the truth. I have a mental image of Wiggins and Millar sitting together on the Col d’Izoard with a cool box full of cold beers and silly grins on their faces.

    jfletch
    Member

    Rodriguez won’t attack on the first climb. He might jump off the front of the main group to mop up the points there but he needs to be in the mix at the finish. It HC and a summit finish so the points are doubled. So the winner get 50 points today. His current total is only 51.

    Premier Icon mrblobby
    Subscriber

    Valverde has never made the podium at the Tour and my guess a podium spot is not something he would risk lightly

    You’re probably right. My thinking was his palmares are probably more impressive than most of the others in the top 10, and at 34 (and with Quintana in the team) this is probably his last chance at the Tour.

    jfletch
    Member

    You’re probably right.

    I’d agree. A tour podium would be his best post ban result.

    I don’t get the feeling the Porte will attack either. But I can see Sky riding up to Chamrouse 2012/Wiggins style, very measured, focus on the watts and TT up the mountain. Or at least they might try. The question will be weather Nibali and others can stay with this pace to the top or will get dropped. Allowing Porte to gain time.

    There won’t be Froome/Contador style attacks.

    Premier Icon Stoner
    Subscriber

    Guys, quick Qu.
    Am I being a div…but: On the Cycling News mobile App I can flick between news feed, stats (groups and time gaps etc) profile and map with up to date tracking. WHen I go to http://live.cyclingnews.com/ on my desktop I can only see the news update. I cant find the other stuff. Is it there?

    And the TDF site doesnt to a map tracker does it?
    http://www.letour.fr/le-tour/2014/us/live/aso/

    Premier Icon crazy-legs
    Subscriber

    So does Porte have to eat into Nibali’s lead today ? If Nibali puts time into him/other main rivals is it all over ?

    If Porte is serious about being in contention for the win, the only way he can do it is to get a few seconds here or there, I can’t see Nibali leaving himself open to one big attack on one day. I think the only way is constant little chipping away at it.

    Did you hear him on ITV last night? He basically said: ‘I hope to put time on those _behind_ me’. Sounds like first priority is consolidate 2nd.

    Yep, that’s the other option – accept that, baring massive disaster for Nibali, Porte will get 2nd and just look to consolidate/defend that.

    Premier Icon colin9
    Subscriber

    Second for Porte would still be a brilliant result for him and Sky.

    chambord
    Member

    Navarro out. Noooooooo…

    That really is my fantasy team screwed.

    rusty90
    Member

    I would imagine that Sky’s tactics will be to keep trying to chip away at Nibali, or at least keep in touch, so that Porte maintains his podium place, with the possibility that Nibali could always have a bad day and open the door for Porte. And there’s still the ITT to come – who knows, Nibali could crack, or fall off. It’s a bike race, so anything could happen (cf. Cav, Froome, Contador, Talansky etc).

    DenDennis
    Member

    yeah, I’ve come to think Porte will just mark nibali all the way to the Hautacam stage.

    Maybe have a couple of digs here and there, but maintain position, and try to put it on from the bottom of that final climb, after maybe softening astana up on the Tourmalet.

    Then, try to gain more time back on the TT. (Wasn’t that how Sastre won it a few years ago, basically getting all his time on one mountain stage, then coming up with the goods in the TT)?

    valverde on the other hand, and the others in top 5, could try something else.

    Premier Icon jambalaya
    Subscriber

    Thanks for the Porte opinions, I don’t know much about road riding and tactics but this makes sense to me.

    atlaz
    Member

    Slightly odd saying on Eurosport that this area of France is stricken with Norovirus like it’s an epidemic… It’s the most common stomach bug in the UK and most of Europe. I guess they have to fill the air somehow.

    rusty90
    Member

    Carlton Kirby mentioning that its hot about every 30 seconds.

    Ro5ey
    Member

    I think Valverde will wait for a few more days.

    My road.cc fantasy team looking good today, Nibali, Porte, Bardet, Pinot, Roche, Purito.

    Paid for it with a poor score yesterday though.

    You are in for a double good day….

    I forgot to put my transfers in this morn ….. school boy … grrr

    jfletch
    Member

    I would imagine that Sky’s tactics will be to keep trying to chip away at Nibali

    Porte won’t be able to “chip” away at Nibali like Froome or Contador would. For those two riders the tactics are basically to make the race hard in the run up to the final 2-3km so that everyone is tired. Then they do one decisive attack at speed to get a gap and maintain that to the summit to gain time. This way they can steadily build a lead every summit finish without having to repeatedly attack from a long way out and risk cracking. Nibali rode like this to the Plank of Beautiful Girls

    Porte isn’t this type of rider. He doesn’t seem to have the fast kick like the other 3. He is more like Wiggins where he can sustain a very high power output (w/kg) for a long time. So his tactics will be to ride up the mountain as fast as he can at a steady pace. He will hope that Nibali can’t sustain the same power output as him and is therefore dropped without Porte having to accelerate sharply.

    I can’t see Sky waiting until Hautacam to try this. In both the tours they have won they have picked the first stage that suited them and gone full gas. In 2012 it was Le Plance de Belle Filles, 2013 it was Ax 3 Domaine. This year Brailsford has stated a number of times that the climb to Chamrouse really suits Porte so hopefully they will light it up from the base of the climb and see who can hack the pace.

    The only risk is that Porte is one of the ones who can keep up or that he doesn’t have a lieutenent of the quality of Froome or himself so he becomes isolated to early in the climb. Nieve should be up to it though.

    Premier Icon jambalaya
    Subscriber

    Is that a pony tail, two in fact ?

    EDIT: yes, that’s weird Mardones Profile

    llama
    Member

    De Marchi pulling away. If he wins the stage (big if) I would love to see Sagan’s face at the dinner table. ‘There you go Pete, it’s easy, I don’t know what the fuss is about’ :0

    atlaz
    Member

    That could have been worse… but looks nasty nontheless

    Premier Icon mrblobby
    Subscriber

    Was wondering where Sean had gone, though he does sometimes shut down for minutes at a time. Probably made the calculation and went for a coffee!

    slowpuncheur
    Member

    “Mate is a rat. He didn’t work well in the break but he’s going to pay for it in the next few days,” L’Equipe quoted him as saying.

    Jerome Pineau doesn’t like him much! Not sure if it was his ridiculous rats tail in his hair or the fact he was sandbagging on Stage 6?

    Premier Icon portlyone
    Subscriber

    The text reports make this interesting, watching it must be another level!

    mysterymove
    Member

    Surely now is the time for sky to do something if they want yellow?

    lemonysam
    Member

    Valverde looks keen. Kangert’s not looking great, fireworks approaching?

Viewing 40 posts - 1 through 40 (of 124 total)

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