It’s as if we learned absolutely zero from Libya, or indeed 60 years of Middle East foreign policy failure. Arming rebel groups will prolong the bloodshed, engender yet more bitterness in generations of Syrians, and, in this case, far from guarantee the overthrow of Assad.
Libya shows us that even our favoured regime will generally turn out to be far less accommodating to western interests than hoped. If anything, Gaddafi, despotic shitbag that he was, was more useful to us in the end.
For all we are told about the appalling abuses of Assad’s regime, I suspect the bloody purges following a ‘rebel’ victory would be as great if not greater, and the pipedream of meaningful democracy would be swiftly shattered.
Perhaps the least worst outcome would have been to quietly green light the Russians to give Assad what he needed at the beginning to put down the rebellion quickly. But then, of course, we were all still romanticising the ‘Arab Spring’ and thinking we could reduce Russia’s influence in the region.