Syria

I didnt want to clutter up the other threads but its a sign of the times that there are multiple wars ongoing atm, even if Russia/Ukraine/ Israel/ Lebabon/Palestine/ Iran/ Syria/ Turkey are all related

It seems like the HTS/SNA/FSA have captured another city

Hama, theres still a mountain range between them and the coastal ports, but its telling that Russia has cleared its ships from Tartus

I know little about the country but it seems that its another post colonial mishmash of tribes and peoples. no idea what happens next there

More confirmation of Rebel presence inside the city limits of Hama. There are also reports that the SAA is rapidly trying to evacuate from Hama military airport.

— NOELREPORTS (@noelreports.com) 2024-12-05T11:38:47.733Z

Someone is stirring the pot IMO.  Online commentators are pointing their fingers at Turkey (NATO member) supporting the HTS whatever.

Connect the dots and a full picture will be revealed.

This is just side show because the main target is Iran and they(you know who) need to encircle Iran.

By attacking a weak Syria, they will suck in all the resources from other places essentially opening another front.

Isn’t Turkey allied with Russia in Syria?  Not a straight forward picture at all.  IF Turkey (big IF) is pulling strings in the background its likely because its in Turkey’s interest, not some grand NATO masterplan to conquer the known world

Its a confusing mess, but it is alarming how many mostly old festering conflicts are kicking off again

Isn’t Turkey allied with Russia in Syria?

Turkey plays both sides.  They are historically good at focusing on the gains they can have for their own only.

https://www.ft.com/content/52946dd2-7316-420b-aa0b-2ac13ea5ea68

Isn’t Turkey allied with Russia in Syria?

In theory following the Astana Accords, yes, Turkey, Russia Iran and to a lesser extent the USA agreed demarcation of spheres of influence, however Russia and Iran didn’t respect this so a furious Erdogan has waited patiently until Assad Syria is weakened by Russia focusing on Ukraine and the damage to Hezbollah (previously sent fighters to support Assad) and Iran by Israel and is now sponsoring the current offensive by the Turkish backed SNF. Think this is a massive FU to Putin by Erdogan rather than any desire to see Assad gone.

The Turkey-backed Syrian National Army also seemed to have a truce in place with the HTS forces as they drive south. Meanwhile the SNF are also attacking the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) because Erdogan hates the Kurds, but as the SDF are US backed I cant see that going anywhere,  The US are also taking the opportunity to batter any Iranian militia that attempt to cross into Syria to support Assad.

Obvs this is a massive oversimplification & v happy to be corrected.  Be curious to see if there was any planning between Israel and Turkey here.

Its also a massive blow to Russia as Syria is used as the main staging post to support the destabilisation in the area which contributes to the refugee crisis as part of Putins hybrid warfare on Europe. Its is also the main support base for the massively lucrative african military support Putin has provided via Wagner or as its now called The Afrika Korps.

Sounds like the next town along from Hama ;  Salamiyah  has  defected to the rebels, a lot of deals being struck,

Syrian regime apparently evacuated some of its air force from hama airport before it was captutured, but lots of old stuff left

The rebels have allegedly taken the military airport in Hama

— Anton Gerashchenko (@antongerashchenko.bsky.social) 2024-12-05T14:03:29.671Z

 also a massive blow to Russia as Syria is used as the main staging post to support the destabilisation in the area which contributes to the refugee crisis as part of Putins hybrid warfare on Europe. Its is also the main support base for the massively lucrative african military support Putin has provided via Wagner or as its now called The Afrika Korps.

good points, but I wouldnt rule out further destabilisation and more refugees as a result of this

will Assad end up doing a  runner to Russia?

Connect the dots and a full picture will be revealed.

will Assad end up doing a  runner to Russia?

From what I have read, Erdogan’s objectives are to create an effective buffer and see the Russians gone. Not depose Assad.

Another example of Erdogan’s unhappiness with Putin was he was also very happy to give the US access to the S400 missile tech in exchange for re-inclusion in the F35 fighter programme, which I have read is the reason the Ukrainians have been so successful attacking S400 batteries.

Crossing the mountains may be too difficult? They can simply carry on south to Homs and cut off access from the coast and the Russian port and bases. Then carry on south to Damascus.

its a massive blow to Russian prestige, and humiliating defeat! They’ve simply run away. Must instil great confidence in Russia other allies its propping up. Not.

The domino’s are starting to fall.

fascinating thread here about HTS; the Jihadists that have been running Northern syria for a while and are now leading the charge, Seem to be much more organised and prepared than the Turkish backed Syrian National Army , have been negotiating with many of teh tribes and factions across syria and SO FAR been tolerant of the many different groups/ religions/ tribes

Having worked on #Syria full-time since the crisis began nearly 14yrs ago, there really is no understating how remarkable the losses imposed on #Assad's regime have been over the past week.A large reason for this lies with #HTS — a ?:

— (@charleslister1.bsky.social) 2024-12-05T16:02:38.253Z

What happens if they do consolidate what theyve captured and whatever else they might take, though I dont know

The domino’s are starting to fall.

I doubt it but there will certainly be plenty of changes and adjustments.

Although the hegemon (NATO/US/West) still considered themselves as the ruling power that is slowly eroding in the East.

The Syria rebels may have upper for now but they are not permanent other than creating the chaos to benefit NATO.

What NATO is good at is to sow chaos (divide and conquer etc) just to establish themselves as hegemon.

Both NATO and Russia etc are fighting in many fronts; and whatever tactics used will be reciprocated.

The bottom line is that the hegemony (NATO/US) is changing and the old power is hanging on a thin thread, and they are just delusional thinking they can simply maintain their hegemony.

Erdogan only survived the last election with a thin margin but this will be his last term.

What NATO is good at is to sow chaos (divide and conquer etc) just to establish themselves as hegemon.

Both NATO and Russia etc are fighting in many fronts; and whatever tactics used will be reciprocated.

You could make an arguement that one or more of the principle member countries (the US particularly) might be engaged in some influence operations or proxy activities to counter the Russians or others. But that is not NATO. NATO is a defensive alliance of 32 countries, all with a say about what the alliance does or doesn’t do. Acting like a cabal of shadowy Bond villains secretly waging war or “sowing chaos” all over the globe is not one of those things.

NATO is a defensive alliance of 32 countries, all with a say about what the alliance does or doesn’t do. Acting like a cabal of shadowy Bond villains secretly waging war or “sowing chaos” all over the globe is not one of those things.

That sounds remarkably naive, how often does a NATO country break ranks with the United States? Who gives a toss what the Italian or Polish governments, for example, have to say, compared to the decisions made by the United States President?

Destabilising governments and  “sowing chaos” is one of the principle role of the CIA. It’s what the US government has been doing for a hundred years.

That sounds remarkably naive

That sounds remarkably patronising

how often does a NATO country break ranks with the United States?

Whether a country does or doesn’t “break ranks” with the US on a bipartisan basis is nothing to do with NATO as a whole.

Destabilising governments and “sowing chaos” is one of the principle role of the CIA. It’s what the US government has been doing for a hundred years.

I’m not arguing with that, but we are talking about NATO, not the CIA.

How often does a NATO country break ranks with the USA? The Iraq war springs to mind for instance.

I’m not arguing with that, but we are talking about NATO, not the CIA.

Well I think it is safe to say that the United States government/president dictates the policies of both NATO and the CIA. And destabilisation of foreign governments is always high on their agenda.

That sounds remarkably patronising

Apologies if it does, that wasn’t the intention. Although personally I found your “shadowy Bond villains” comment in response to what I thought was a perfectly valid point made by chewkw rather patronising.

Well I think it is safe to say that the United States government/president dictates the policies of both NATO and the CIA.

On that basis, if it were true, you could also conflate the US Forest Service, the Bureau of Indian Affairs and the Federal Aviation Authority with NATO.  I don’t think it is “safe to say” that the US government dictates the policies of NATO. They are, undoubtedly the most influential member (currently – who knows under Trump), but there are plenty of disagreements, bun fights and policy differences between member states. You’ve only got to look at the opposition Turkey and Hungary had regarding the accession of Finland and Sweden, France’s ring fencing of it’s nuclear capability outside NATO,  widespread internal disagreement over NATO actions in Kosovo, Libya etc.

I’m going to bow out now, as I don’t want to derail a thread about Syria with a side discussion about the evils of NATO.

good points, but I wouldnt rule out further destabilisation and more refugees as a result of this

Turkiye has preventing migration to Turkiye as one priority.

It would be good to consider an Assad-free, democratic, Syria that promotes the return of professionals who could rebuild their country

You could make an arguement that one or more of the principle member countries (the US particularly) might be engaged in some influence operations or proxy activities to counter the Russians or others. But that is not NATO. NATO is a defensive alliance of 32 countries, all with a say about what the alliance does or doesn’t do. Acting like a cabal of shadowy Bond villains secretly waging war or “sowing chaos” all over the globe is not one of those things.

They are ALL engaged in proxy activities countering each others, which is Normal.  Why the surprise?

NATO is a “defensive alliances” (in name only) that is expanding in the name of “peace” by imposing on others whether they like it or not.

Remember, before there is peace there will always be war and destruction, and when there is no one else left to fight they will then focus on their own citizen.

Russia etc are just applying the more explicit approach while their counterpart NATO is applying a more implicit approach of so called “influence”.

The problem is that such hegemonic approach is already outdated and the whole world is tired of it.

They are ALL engaged in proxy activities countering each others, which is Normal.  Why the surprise?

If you think you detected surprise in my post you are mistaken

NATO is a “defensive alliances” (in name only) that is expanding in the name of “peace” by imposing on others whether they like it or not.

Why did Finland want to join NATO after decades of opposition to doing so?  Who do they want to impose on? Sweden, why did they abandon decades of neutrality? Poland? Lithuania? Latvia? Estonia? etc. etc. What motivated them to join, of their own free democratic will with widespread public support?  You seem determined to turn a thread about Syria into one about the perceived evils of NATO.  I suggested above that we bring this thread back on topic. I am suggesting it again. Why don’t you start a thread about it if you want to discuss it, instead of derailing this one?  I’ll happily discuss it there with you if you do, but not on here. I shouldn’t have risen to the bait this time, I won’t again 🙂

President Erdogan’s other priority is to get in and out before President-elect Trump takes the reins.

Trump sanctioned Turkiye in 2019 for an invasion of Syria; the US and Turkiye back different rebel groups https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-50050264

russian bombers have blown up the bridge to Homs from Hama , (russia has also been doing its usual tactics of bombing hospitals in idlib)

?? Locals report that the bridge between Hama and Homs has been blown up. Information needs confirmation

— MAKS 24 ??? (@maks23.bsky.social) 2024-12-05T20:01:29.906Z

a large column of rebels was reported to be about halfway to Homs already

meanwhile regine loyalists are fleeing Homs for Damascus

Außerdem machen sich viele Menschen auf die Flucht von Homs Richtung Damaskus

— Markus ?️ (@mschaub.bsky.social) 2024-12-05T21:22:28.297Z

Reports that Russian Airforce aircraft have begun striking the Al-Rastan bridge. On the other hand, people inside Homs have reported that the SAA are already beginning to abandon the city.

— Oliver Alexander (@oalexanderdk.bsky.social) 2024-12-05T18:40:33.774Z

looks like Assad has blown up the bridge to Homs from Hama

Claims it was Russian aircraft that hit the bridge.  Seems to be a desperate attempt to stop a very rapid advance along the key ground line of communication in the country.  It does feel as if the speed and and surprise of this could overwhelm the Syrian forces. Interesting assessment below, lifted from X.  None of this bodes well for the Syrian people.  HTS seem to be as unsavoury as Assad’s regime and too many regional powers stirring the pot with very shitty sticks.

“The capture of Ar Rastan by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)-led forces marks a pivotal shift in the Syrian conflict, with major implications for both the Assad regime and the broader strategic landscape. Ar Rastan is situated along the M5 highway, the most critical ground line of communication in Syria, connecting Damascus, Homs, Hama, and Aleppo. Losing control of this key city disrupts the regime’s ability to transport troops, supplies, and reinforcements between these regions, leaving its northern positions more isolated and its control over central Syria increasingly vulnerable. Adding to the urgency is the nearby bridge over the Orontes River, a vital chokepoint for regime logistics. Russian airstrikes targeting this bridge reflect its importance, as Moscow attempts to slow HTS’s consolidation and prevent further disruption to supply routes.

HTS’s successful operation demonstrates a growing sophistication in its tactics, likely supported by coordination with Turkish-backed factions of the Syrian National Army (SNA). By exploiting vulnerabilities in the overstretched Syrian Arab Army (SAA), HTS has managed to execute a rapid and effective offensive, highlighting the regime’s faltering ability to defend key positions across multiple fronts. For the Assad regime, losing Ar Rastan is a serious setback. It not only disrupts vital logistics but also serves as a symbolic blow to its narrative of stability and control in central Syria. Even with Russian air support and Iranian-backed militias like Hezbollah and Liwa Fatemiyoun, the regime appears increasingly incapable of holding territory against well-coordinated opposition forces.

The strategic consequences of this development extend beyond the battlefield. Ar Rastan’s location gives HTS a springboard for further offensives, potentially threatening Homs or even areas closer to Damascus. Losing control of the M5 highway underscores the Assad regime’s fragility, revealing how reliant it is on external support to sustain its operations. For Russia, the loss of Ar Rastan adds pressure to an already strained intervention, as its military resources are stretched thin by the ongoing war in Ukraine. Similarly, Iran’s influence could face challenges, as the regime’s setbacks jeopardize key supply lines essential for supporting Hezbollah and other allied forces.

HTS’s growing dominance raises international concerns. As a designated terrorist organization, its expanded control undermines efforts toward a political resolution in Syria and complicates relationships within the broader opposition. HTS’s extremist ideology and history of abuses also risk alienating other opposition groups and could provoke harsher military responses from the regime and its allies. Turkey, which indirectly enables HTS through its support for the SNA, now faces a difficult balancing act. Ankara’s actions risk straining its commitments under the Astana peace process and complicating its relations with regional and international partners.

The humanitarian impact of this battle is severe. Thousands of civilians face displacement, compounding the already dire crisis in Syria. With the likelihood of regime counteroffensives and intensified Russian airstrikes, the risks to civilian lives and infrastructure are immense. The capture of Ar Rastan not only shifts the local balance of power but also highlights the fragile and volatile nature of Syria’s ongoing conflict”.

HTS seem to be as unsavoury as Assad’s regime

Not sure. They are definitely not the Al-Qaeda loyalists they were and have purged all Al-Qaeda out. Their success is because they have negotiated with the local tribes and protected the Christians during their advance and avoided conflict with the Kurdish SDF. They have carefully administered their territories. Whether that transfers to greater power and Al-Julani doesnt revert, or is assassinated, remains to be seen though.

If HTS capture Homs they will cut the main Iran -Hezbollah supply line which will have massive implications.

i cant keep up with all the TLAs

 HTS seem to be as unsavoury as Assad’s regime and too many regional powers stirring the pot with very shitty sticks.

About the only thing I’ve read about the Syrian situation that I can confidently say is correct is that we should not assume that the enemy of our enemy is our friend. This is the situation in every intelligence agency around the globe:

Another example of Erdogan’s unhappiness with Putin was he was also very happy to give the US access to the S400 missile tech in exchange for re-inclusion in the F35 fighter programme, which I have read is the reason the Ukrainians have been so successful attacking S400 batteries.

The history of Turkiye’s acquisition of S400 has always been mired in controversy. When the Syrian war was raging in 2013, President Erdogan wanted Patriot missile batteries on the Syrian border, which would be supplied and crewed by NATO members.

There were various diplomatic incidents including protests and attacks on German Patriot crews https://www.dw.com/en/why-were-german-soldiers-attacked-in-turkey/a-16547390 and the US and Germany withdrew Patriot batteries from Turkiye.

Turkiye gave an ultimatum, Patriot or we’ll buy S400, which is where we are now. The batteries aren’t NATO-compatible and the US was concerned that a mix of F35 and S400 risked giving F35 technical info gleaned from S400 to Russia, which was a massive carrot for Russia

IMHO a deal should have been made to transfer Turkiye’s S400 to Ukraine a couple of years ago, but they’re currently looking at a storage and inspection regime

i cant keep up with all the TLAs

Some FLAs there too ^^ 🙂

HTS seem to be as unsavoury as Assad’s regime

Not sure. They are definitely not the Al-Qaeda loyalists they were and have purged all Al-Qaeda out. Their success is because they have negotiated with the local tribes and protected the Christians during their advance and avoided conflict with the Kurdish SDF. They have carefully administered their territories. Whether that transfers to greater power and Al-Julani doesnt revert, or is assassinated, remains to be seen though.

From the TwitterX piece in BUTRs post ^^ it seems that at least some of the risks to civilian lives will be from war, rather than HTS directly.

HTS clearly has a history but doesn’t come close to Assad’s, e.g. 1400 killed in Ghouta with chemical weapons (2013), ignoring UN Security Council Resolution 2254 to protect all Syrians (2015) http://unscr.com/en/resolutions/doc/2254 , 300 chemical weapon attacks, 250k civilians dead, 11mn forced from their homes (2021) https://www.cbsnews.com/news/bashar-al-assad-syria-evidence-war-crimes-60-minutes-2021-02-21/

@timba why do you keep referring to the native spelling of Turkey rather than the anglicised version? Have I missed something?

i cant keep up with all the TLAs

OK I done a wikipedia…

HTS  Hayʼat Tahrir al-Sham      Jihadists with good PR that have been running Idlib province pretty well by all accounts , certainly better than Syrian government did, spearheading the current insurgency well organised, equipped and coordinated and have negotiated alliances with quite a few other groups and have been careful to allow multifaith worship in Idlib

SDF Syrian Democratic Forces      Kurdish coalition of rebels at one time supplied by USA ,  have been fighting IS and Turkish troops, loosely allied with HTS includes YPG; People’s Defense Units kurdish miltia that was funded by America (Trump in fact)

SNA Syrian National Army         Essentially a Turkish rebrand of the Free Syrian Army, armed, trained and directed by Turkey have fought kurds and not particularly tolerant of other minorities, Yazidis etc

PKK Kurdish workers party      Designated terror group by Turkey, USA, EU operate in NE syria, obscure relationship to Russia and bizarely links to Turkish intelligence

All of the above tend to be coalitions of different groups with their own internal politics

SAA Syrian Army                     Assads army trained and equipped by Russia and Iran, has issues with corruption and morale have done a lot of strategic withdrawling n the last few day

Theres also Hezbolahh who have recently sent some of what troops they have left after Israels bombing of lebanon

Iran also have a lot of militias in NE syria that have been helping  SAA since the last civil war but Israel have been bombing them a lot lately to try and stop their supply of weapons to Lebanon – theres also IRG  Iranian Revolutionary guard there too an IRG general was killed last month along with quite a few IRG troops by HTS

Russia urging citizens to leave:
https://english.alarabiya.net/News/world/2024/12/06/russia-tells-its-nationals-to-leave-syria

wowzers

Important: According to AFP, Syrian troops have withdrawn from the key city of Homs. Losing Homs would mean naval cities like Tartous and Latakia are basically cut off from Damascus.

— NOELREPORTS (@noelreports.com) 2024-12-06T13:41:18.581Z

also wozers there appears to be insurgents popping up south of Damascus

The first town in the southern Daraa province in Syria is in open rebellion against the Assad state. In the town of Inkhil armed men on motorbikes are on the streets.

— (((Tendar))) (@tendar.bsky.social) 2024-12-06T09:31:57.330Z

and in the east

Breaking:Large columns of US-backed SDF forces are moving into Deir Ezzor, eastern Syria. Apparently, SAA and Iranian militias withdrew without a fight. Similar reports from areas south of Raqqa. It is a complete collapse.Game over for Assad in the East.Source: X / DeirEzzor24

— (((Tendar))) (@tendar.bsky.social) 2024-12-06T13:04:54.465Z

why do you keep referring to the native spelling of Turkey rather than the anglicised version? Have I missed something?

I am assuming that it is because it might otherwise cause unnecessary confusion this particular time of year. The whole situation is complicated enough as it is.

Genuine LOL 😀

why do you keep referring to the native spelling of Turkey rather than the anglicised version?

For the same reason, I suppose, that it’s Myanmar not Burma, and Sri Lanka not Ceylon. I think they officially changed via the UN in 2022.

Turkey plays both sides.  They are historically good at focusing on the gains they can have for their own only.

Very much this. They’re bloody good at it! It helps when you’ve got a gateway to international trade running through the middle of your country.

If you want to read a couple of fantastic and fascinating books about the way some countries behave the way they do, and why, both of these are essential