I know many are bought as work vans 😜, will there be an EV replacement by then

S/H Prices will plummet or skyrocket?

Will the tax (VED & fuel) go crazy high on petrol /diesel?

the ev replacement (id buzz) is out next year
prices will probably stay broadly similar for a similarly aged van
no

If what happened to the OG Defender when it was canned is anything to go by they’ll suddenly become to Chelsea tractor of choice.

Whats happening in 9 years time?

A 9+ yearold van (with the requisit MTB/surf/camping conversion will still be worth something.
depending on the improvemnts or lack of in batteries and speed of charging, they might be useful/desired for long distance travel.

I wonder what the price of diesel will be in 2030?

They already are the Chelsea tractor of choice…

Whats happening in 9 years time?

The end of petrol/diesel vehicle sales

Who knows what position will be in 9 years. If the electric infrastructure has not improved enough (i.e. good charging for people without driveways) then many people will be holding onto their petrol/diesel cars and the prices could increase due to no new supply.

The end of petrol/diesel vehicle sales

The end of new petrol/diesel vehicle sales.

There will be more of these type of vehicles, with better range and batteries etc. Or possibly hydrogen will take off, at least for commercial vehicles.

Hydrogen makes more sense for big vehicles and while we seem to be slowly getting there on ev charging, there’s no Hydrogen plans so far?

I have just taken delivery of an E-Expert

https://www.parkers.co.uk/vans-pickups/peugeot/expert/2020-e-expert-review/

170-200 miles range, 200mph+ charging speed, quite a bit smaller than our previous LWB Vivaro, but still fits bikes and everything we need for work no problem. We don’t have off street parking but we do have a few slow long stay chargers within a short walk of the house (closer than I often used to have to park living in Edinburgh).

I think it will work out good. Ask me again after our trip to Torridon in September.

the ev replacement (id buzz) is out next year

Isn’t the ID Buzz going to be Sharan / Touran size? So not really a Transporter replacement..

Although, that being said, maybe the electric gubbins will allow a layout approaching the interior size..?

The end of petrol/diesel vehicle sales

This does mean that the multitude of petrol and diesel cars currently (and in 9 years time) will not all be crushed the next day?

If anything I can see a niche market emerging for folk hanging onto them as long as they can. Many of us still will want to lug bikes / boats / families / camping gear around long distances, and electric won’t like that.

They have an eTransporter too as well as the ID-buzz – https://www.volkswagen-vans.co.uk/en/electric-vans/abt-etransporter-6-1.html

quite neat work with the battery to ensure no loss of space.

pigyn

The big hotel/etate in Torridon has a charging point you’ll be fine.

quite neat work with the battery to ensure no loss of space.

By only squeezing in 82 miles of range..?

They have an eTransporter too as well as the ID-buzz – https://www.volkswagen-vans.co.uk/en/electric-vans/abt-etransporter-6-1.html

quite neat work with the battery to ensure no loss of space.

And a spectacular range of 82 miles…

I’m planning on keeping my 4yr old Transit Custom for at least the next 9 years, so I’m hoping things sort themselves out by the time we’re replacing it. ID Buzz looks to be too small for our needs.

Hopefully there will be a big decrease in fly campers once the petrol and diesel vans are so old that they get scrapped. Will we then see e.vans being charged overnight beside Loch Etive by a generator packed I the back of the van?

The cost of an EV is much higher than the existing petrol / diesel equivalent.
The EV infrastructure will slightly improve, but not enough.
If you have on street parking you will not be much better off than you are now.
Range will not improve by much at all.

You only have to look at the past to predict the points above are the most likely future outcome for the next few years.

There will be a large number of people who cannot charge at home, or the range wont meet their needs or who just cant afford an EV. Given this I suspect the value of well looked after petrol / diesel vehicles will stay steady or in some cases rise. Anything deemed desirable will rise.

Scrapping a working vehicle to change it for an EV seems a tragic waste of resources.

Will we then see e.vans being charged overnight beside Loch Etive by a generator packed I the back of towed by the van?

🙂

The cost of an EV is much higher than the existing petrol / diesel equivalent.

it is higher, but coming down all the time. The id.3 is only about 10-15% more expensive than the golf equivilent, which (due to the cost of fueling) evens out pretty quickly. TCO of electric cars is already much lower than a petrol car.

Isn’t the ID Buzz going to be Sharan / Touran size?

its not clear. the concept was over 5m long which (considering the cab-forwards nature of a skateboard designed electric van) will have the loadspace of an xlwb van today..

I have just taken delivery of an E-Expert

170-200 miles range, 200mph+ charging speed…

😲😲😲

There will be a large number of people who cannot charge at home

This is why I’ve not got an EV. I absolutely need to fill up with Diesel at home from the refinery on my driveway. You just can’t rely on those forecourts to be open in remote places, and when they are they often have those big yellow tags on the pumps saying out of order, I’ve seen them.

And I refuse to break up my journeys into sensibly sized chunks. It’s my flying spaghetti monster given right to be able to drive for 12 hours straight on a 600 mile tank of diesel and a stadium buddy strapped to my leg. And then die in my sleep with my family arround me. Not having to stop for 15 minutes to refuel it every 2 hours whilst I empty my bladder, my Holliday time is just too important for that.

refuse to break up my journeys into sensibly sized chunks.

82 miles is not a sensible chunk.

All depends on what goes on with high level Gov policy. If they do nothing on fuel tax/subsidy then its hard to see people not wanting to stick with there a petrol / diesel car. If they raise the taxes on petrol / diesel and start to subsidise electricity then the dynamic changes.

There is no signs of movement just yet, we have just bought a new diesel car as it works out cheaper then electric. We are about to change the boiler and the green options for heating all come out more expensive.

it is higher, but coming down all the time. The id.3 is only about 10-15% more expensive than the golf equivilent,

thats becasue it is subsidised by it’s golf equivelant – that wont carry on and this is the arguemnt about social mobility inequality.. Plus. Transporters will be fine as they fall outside of the pass-car sector (or will) so will ahve a stay of execution.

I might also add, 2020 was a bumper year for caravans, Europe qutie likes them, and they need towing! Towing with elecy is not good, as it reduces range by ALOT, and infrastructure wont be there to cope with the summer migrations..

+ what’s been said, there will still be 35m+ ICE vehciles on the road in 9 years time, i’m going to hazard in 25-30 years time so fuel wont be an issue. Where there is demand, there is supply!

The problem is there’s nothing to replace medium sized vans – the battery packs are heavy which will eat into load capacity. Big trucks can probably be electrified with overhead pylons on motorways.

Can’t see hydrogen being a sensible option, really hard to store (hydrogen atoms are tiny so leak through most materials) and the storage density is crap.

The issue will be petrol stations becoming less viable with less non-electric cars on the road. It’s not like they’re going to stay around to service an ever diminishing market – there will be a period of gradual erosion of profit and then poof, they’ll be gone one after each other. If your local one isn’t on a big road and services HGVs then I’d expect it to be gone five years after petrol cars are stopped being sold. That’ll then cause a positive feedback loop – pain to get (expensive) fuel, so people get rid of the petrol cars, meaning more petrol stations go, etc etc. To mis quote hemmingway – it’ll be gradually then all at once.

This is all assuming the 2030 date won’t get pushed back, which it will be.

This is why I’ve not got an EV. I absolutely need to fill up with Diesel at home from the refinery on my driveway. You just can’t rely on those forecourts to be open in remote places, and when they are they often have those big yellow tags on the pumps saying out of order, I’ve seen them.

Not really the same though is it but it may be very different in 9 years time. There may be 1,000s of charging stations dotted around at regular intervals and they may charge a car to a 100 mile range within 2 minutes (all cars able to do this, not just the fancy expensive ones)

That is very different than the current situation.

Well I drove my 36 year old Transporter to work today, so..??

vdubber67
Free Member
Well I drove my 36 year old Transporter to work today, so..??

and thats the crux of the arguments – the average fleet life is not 10-12 years, and it will get older if consumers are pushed to accept technologies that are not workable. Keeping an old vehicle going is good, touhgh 36 years maybe pushing it from an environmental perspective -there’s a balance somewhere and will be laregly down to what you burn it in!

Living in a city, already seeing transporter and other diesel van owners sweating about the imminent introduction of pollution charging. So I think we’ll see a stark urban-rural
and petrol-diesel divide in vehicle choice.

The range needs to get sorted…I’m all for EV but a van with a range of 82 miles? Surely the only people buying that are the ones who love a new badge and reckon this will do any credibility they had the world of good.

82 miles doesn’t get me anywhere and I’d spend more time recharging the vehicle than I would driving it…

Things need to be vastly improved quickly (o encourage more uptake), more of them need to be on offer (to drive price down), but I’m also aware of how bad they are for the environment so battery recycling and reclaiming needs to be stepped up as well.

Or we all need to consider why we use a vehicle in the first place and see if we can actually survive without one – much harder to do once you have one, but I suspect there must be at least a 10% reduction in usage for the majority of folk…surely?

82 miles is not a sensible chunk

Depends on how much of a rush you’re in. I live 170 miles from Aviemore, and always stop in Perth for a break, which is about half way. Ditto the Lakes and M74 services. It’s not a massive issue, and probably pretty good in terms of road safety.

It will improve though, obviously.

Not really the same though is it but it may be very different in 9 years time. There may be 1,000s of charging stations dotted around at regular intervals and they may charge a car to a 100 mile range within 2 minutes (all cars able to do this, not just the fancy expensive ones)

That is very different than the current situation.

It’s not really different though is it?

And that completely ignores the fact that if you are on the west coast of Wales/Scotland, then you can just plug it in overnight at your B&B (unless living the van life dream living in a layby, shitting in hedges).

Depends on how much of a rush you’re in. I live 170 miles from Aviemore, and always stop in Perth for a break, which is about half way.

Stopping once sounds pleasant, having to stop twice on a trip of that length begins to sound like a pain in the balls

mashr
Free Member
Depends on how much of a rush you’re in. I live 170 miles from Aviemore, and always stop in Perth for a break, which is about half way.

Stopping once sounds pleasant, having to stop twice on a trip of that length begins to sound like a pain in the balls

just to put this into context – some acquaintances of mine who were doing a Golfing trip to Scotland recently took 3-4 hours more to get home on empty roads than their colleagues did due to stops.

Talking to an engineer from Cummins who is in my cycle club , he said they are working on a new generation of diesel engines for commercial use . They are also developing the electric side.

It’s not really different though is it?

Yes, it is very different.

I fill my car up with petrol which takes 5 minutes and it covers about 350 miles before I have to fill it again.
There are 5 petrol stations just on my way to work.
For the equivalent EV car (small, cheap) I would need to ‘fill’ it up every 100 miles and spend hours doing so (plus any time spent finding an empty charge point)

As I said, in 9 years time it will look very different I would hope (a lot more charging stations, much quicker charging on all cars etc,.) but currently it is not equivalent at all.
That doesn’t actually matter though as the deadline was put in place to give everything 10 years to get to the point it needs to be.

Do they have the same map with working charge points ? And all those that are quick charge ? And all those that are open to everyone and all those that are 24/7 . For example Google maps shows my closest charge point as 3 miles. Great- bar two things. It’s 14 miles by road as it’s on the other side of the river. And 2 it’s for residents of the hotel only. I bet it’s included on that map.

Another example is the one on the front of the cafe we use for coffeestops which is attached to someone’s residence and is for use of the patrons of the cafe……. They have had desperate people knocking them up at midnight to use the charger……-and I know that one’s been added to maps by some welldoer …..

Surely the only people buying that are the ones who love a new badge and reckon this will do any credibility they had the world of good.

or, you know, people who are buying a van for work, and work less than 40 miles from their house. Like every single plumber and sparkie..

its not a good solution for a ‘lifestyle van’. Its perfect for a builder in london.

thats becasue it is subsidised by it’s golf equivelant – that wont carry on and this is the arguemnt about social mobility inequality..

the id3 is ~£6k more than the equivilent golf (without grant). fuel for 10k a year is £1500. Electricity for the same distance would be under £500. ROI is 6 years even if you assume the id3 is worth no more used. VW have a tool for this here https://www.volkswagen.co.uk/electric/should-you-go-electric/cost-savings/cost-of-running-your-car#/car/compare