Sorry, one more interesting thing – as the world economy starts to diversify again and markets stabilise – money is flowing back out of the dollar, and sterling is gaining strength.

People are going back into risk-on assets. So floating currencies are doing their jobs and we have to stop screaming when they move up and down.

I’m not saying modern market economies don’t demand some stability and reassurance – but volatility makes people very wealthy.

There are markets for consumers (that don’t really work in our interest) and making billions out of markets for the rest of them.

To go back to the nonsense from streeting and Starmer about further privitisation inthe NHS:

the NHS england fake market set up by the tories to allow privitisation costs £4.5 billion a year.  thats £4.5 billion per year NHS england could have for patient care just by eliminating that and costs to eliminate it are low.  This is exactly what the SNP did in Scotland.  remove the fake market with minimal other alterations, leave the organisation pretty much alone after that

https://chpi.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/At-what-cost-paying-the-price-for-the-market-in-the-English-NHS-by-Calum-Paton.pdf

Privitisation also cost lives – 500 or so a year

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/jun/29/nhs-privatisation-drive-linked-to-rise-in-avoidable-deaths-study-suggests

Woop

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jan/27/labour-government-would-pass-right-to-roam-act-and-reverse-dartmoor-ban

The right to roam will be amazing if they put it through.

It is a good thing, but it has got to be pretty near the bottom of the list of priorities.

pretty near the bottom of the list of priorities

Labour keep overly tight discipline on policy announcements to keep focus and get message across – “Labour have no policies”.

Labour front bencher briefs on what Labour are preparing in his policy area – “the wrong priorities”.

As the election draws closer, this is what they risk – “why are Labour talking about that, it doesn’t effect me” – but also, if they are to form a government and hit the ground running, they need to have prepared in every policy area. Every one. Most of the policy teams seem to be following a shut up and get on with it strategy, but that approach must end at some point.

Was there not a previous “right to roam” act in England that is so full of restrictions and caveats it was useless?  Also excludes cycling and the current campaign in England excludes cycling

Don’t expect anything like the scottish right to roam from this.

Yes, cycling looks to be excluded. Revision for National Parks to go beyond the “pass across/though” limitation of the existing legislation down here seems a small but welcome step. It’s not Scottish level access, but the change in the law is needed ASAP to prevent landowners using the law as it currently stands to further limit the public enjoying the great outdoors. This can be done quickly.

Could go in the Brexit thread

but quite interesting

I suspect that were the economy to pick up that bregret might fall, but for now, it explains labour’s stance

And an interesting analysis of the findings from @TomMcTague https://t.co/0fOf2HZGzp pic.twitter.com/4KASu1Fag0

— Anand Menon (@anandMenon1) January 30, 2023

Some polling numbers…

For what it's worth, -18 was also the worst score Sunak ever received as Chancellor from this pollster, which he scored twice back in Spring 2022 when he was mired in tax-related scandals. pic.twitter.com/CnLPYwlBVV

— Josh (@JMagosh) January 30, 2023

We’re over 18 months from an election, and the tories will throw some treats at the voters 6 months out, add to that the reality that a lot of those disapproving are going to vote how they always vote, and it’ll not be a huge win for Labour, i’d settle for any win, as this country reminds me so much of the US at times, where Republicans will always vote, no matter the candidate, whereas Democrats tends to be apathetic and not vote when they’re not happy, it’s the same with the tory voters, they’ll whinge, they’ll moan, but put them in a voting booth and they’ll tick for the tory candidate.

Guardian bit

People are clearly changing their minds on Brexit. Whilst the bigoted, selfish and thick old gits who voted for it are unlikely to change their minds, they are dying* and being replaced by young voters strongly in favour of remain/rejoin.

Any labour leader who doesn’t seize the opportunity to appeal to these voters by offering pathways (however long they are) back to the EU is throwing away a generation of party support. It could put the tories of the game for decades.

* I won’t apologise for any of that. If you still support brexit, you’re all those things and more. But mostly the thick bit. And before anyone says “you won’t win them over by calling them names” – I don’t want to. I’m probably, statistically, younger than they are, so I’ll just wait until they’re gone.

🚨 NEW: Labour drops to 16pts, would win 166-seat majority.

🔴 LAB 42% (-8)
🔵 CON 26% (-1)
🟠 LD 11% (+4)
🟣 REF 6% (+3)
🟢 GRN 5% (+2)
🟡 SNP 4% (-)

Lab on 408 seats (+206), Con on 143 seats (-222).

Via @Survation, 1-6 Feb (+/- since 1-3 Nov) pic.twitter.com/YSK5x5ylNP

— Stats for Lefties 🍉🏳️‍⚧️ (@LeftieStats) February 12, 2023

30p Lee bounce

30p Lee bounce

I’m not sure he can take all the credit

The change is compared to last November, just after Truss’s kamikwasi budget

Migration has become the thing for both parties to unwelcome now.

30p Lee is their main strategist.

This is how the election will be operated.

30p Lee bounce

That Survation poll was taken before Lee Anderson was made Deputy Chairman of the Conservative Party.

I doubt many punters know or care who the Chairman of the Conservative Party is, much less who the Deputy Chairman is.

I don’t even know what the role of Tory chairman/deputy chairman actually is – what is their role ? Apparently there 4 deputy chairmen and 4 vice chairmen in the Tory Party.

I have no idea what they all do nor how likely they are to affect how well the Tories do in elections.

That shows a boost for remainer parties.  There’s plenty of room for Labour to move EU-wards to offset that, not so much the Tories.

It shows the LibDems on a lower share of  the vote than they received at the last general election, and a boost for Reform UK.

If the previous Survation poll showed the LibDems on 7% that is crazy. Although probably not that surprising.

It shows the LibDems on a lower share of  the vote than they received at the last general election, and a boost for Reform UK.

what are their policies on rejoining the EU? asking for a friend.

At the last general election I believe that LibDem EU policy was to remain in the EU without having another referendum.

Which was particularly ironic as the LibDems were the first major UK political party to demand an in-out referendum on EU membership.

I don’t know what their policy would be if a snap election was called, LibDem policies don’t make the headlines, neither do their politicians. But I guess it would be rejoin without a referendum.

Rachel Reeves isn’t half piping out some guff at the moment.

All the Labour front bench are doing a terrible job at talking up the miniscule problems that face us, instead of the bigger picture – like how are you actually going to fix things instead of carrying on failed economic methodology?

For instance Rayner going on about the waste and “tax payer’s” money – this is a dead duck. She is now being attacked about her airpods. You fight Tory lines you are attacked on Tory values.

It’s a pathetic trap. There are no politics any longer in any party. No ideas or solutions – just the same laboured arguments about tax payer’s money.

The Tories are controlling the narrative about migration too – Rayner again with the tagging. What happend to Labour being ont he right side of injustice?

I’m fully expecting Wes Streeting to pop up with private death clinics for murderers soon – offering them tax credits for their work.

The ratio of screaming over the Tories being useless versus the what we might get at the next election is so misguided.

We are utterly trapped with two of the worst options of modern times.

That Survation poll was taken before Lee Anderson was made Deputy Chairman of the Conservative Party.

Lee Anderson was already doing the noisy rounds in the minds of the public way before he was made Deputy of pointlessness.

That’s said I was mostly pissing around and didn’t at all mean he was categorically responsible for a bounce.

Anyone that’s interested in economics – and the state of things here is an excellent discussion from some proper progressives with a debate around the financial/fiscal/monetary system. And how it doesn’t serve the public good.

Quite long but has got some decent answers to the way we function economically.

https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9waWxldXNtbXQubGlic3luLmNvbS9yc3M/episode/ZTYwM2Y2MTktZWViYy00ZTkyLWFlMzktNmY2YTdiMjYzZDk5?ep=14

Neil Wilson (modelled the entire UK exchequer) is fantastic. His analysis on inflation (rather than CPI) is particularly enlightening.

Currency stuff is interesting too.

I actually think the attack lines over the tories spending public money like water are good ones.  Its all about getting removing the perception that the tories are safe hands on the economy / cut waste / look after public money.  I think we will see more of this especially during the campaign.  Its a good political tool along with all the crony capitalism of giving money to their mates for non existent PPE and appointing cronies for favours.

its about setting a tone / getting something accepted into the public consciousness.  for too long the tories have been seen as more trustworthy with public finances than labour even tho that perception has been wrong

Agreed. And why would you want to go into an election without highlighting where money has been going under this government, and where it will go instead if a new government is elected?

🤷🏻‍♂️

So, with Sturgeon stepping down, are some Scottish voters going to migrate to Labour?

It’s being mentioned a a possibility by some on the news.

Thoughts?

No significant numbers IMO

Last time I looked at the polls all the movement to labour was from the tories.  Labour are fighting over the unionist brexiteer vote.  Very few SNP voters will move to labour while they are brexiteers

I actually think should they choose the right leader this could lead to an increase in SNP vote.  Sturgeon as she said has become a polarising figure.

I think that the SNP leadership contest might harm their polls, depending on how deep any fault lines in the party it exposes are. If that happens then I’d much prefer their lost votes go to Labour than the Tories.

https://www.thejc.com/news/politics/tories-hold-seat-in-golders-green-by-election-with-66-per-cent-of-vote-5yphw8ACrvwB1N7SEQ1p6g

Good result for the Winchester College educated candidate but I thought Starmer was supposed to be bringing the Jewish vote flocking back to Labour, or are we still blaming Corbyn?

Labour did increase its share of the vote by 3% but the Tories also increased their share of the vote, albeit by 1.6%. Surprising considering the huge Labour lead nationally and the fact that London is Labour’s greatest stronghold.

Obviously a tiny electorate and a tiny turnout, and imo the Jewish angle, despite the Jewish Chronicle’s obvious interest and Starmer’s obsession on the issue, is totally irrelevant. As far as I am concerned Jewish voters are just voters like everyone else, but if Labour had won the seat from the Tories you can be certain that Labour right-wingers would be creating a song and dance about how under Starmer, and his battle against alledged anti-Semitism, the Jewish vote had returned to Labour.

The turnout in the election for the vacant Barnet Borough Council seat was 27.2 per cent.

That’s the most significant number AFAIC.

It’s one of those seats that’s so safely Tory, people don’t bother voting. The kind of thing that happens all over the country (for different parties).

Barnet: Conservatives hold safe Golders Green ward in uneventful by-election

The Conservative win and the lack of change are easily explained: Golders Green has been a Conservative stronghold for decades due to the ingrained loyalty of many of its Orthodox Jewish voters who identify with long-standing Tory themes about Thatcherite economics, conservative social values, patriotism and support for Israel. Labour does not have much of an “in” with this community as it does in more liberal Jewish areas like Finchley and Hampstead.

Golders Green has been a Conservative stronghold for decades due to the ingrained loyalty of many of its Orthodox Jewish voters who identify with long-standing Tory themes about Thatcherite economics, conservative social values, patriotism and support for Israel.

A comment like that would likely get a Labour Party member suspended if not kicked out of Starmer’s party. Pointing out “the ingrained loyalty” of many Jewish voters to the Zionist state, Israel, and to “Thatcherite economics” would definitely lead to accusations of anti-Semitism.

Well if the comment was made by a left-winger obviously.

> deleted <

Is it just me or is Starmer is getting a bit bored? His speech this morning was very lacklustre, and his stated 5 ‘missions’ a load of woolly ‘we’ll make everything better’ rhetoric. We know he wants to make everything better, what we want to know is how, and still after all this time and in the runup to an election, he still doesn’t seem to have many new ideas. 🤷‍♂️

Yeah, Bring back Boris and his amusing antics 🙄

It is all a bit motherhood and apple pie. I’m just glad that Green Energy and the NHS are both right up there as headlines. Yes, they’re both no brainers, and yes they are both something a Tory government could also commit to… but they haven’t delivered nearly enough in either area, to put it mildly, and the fall out from them failing to do so is _______ all around us. They need to go. We need to be rid of them.

5 Missions for a better Britain

‘Improve the NHS’ = more Streeting-led privatisation
‘Improve education’: would any party pledge the opposite?
‘Economic growth’ = nothing about redistribution or fair pay but ‘we are the party of business’ ie more trickle down fallacies
My word, with such an open goal, it’s just vacuous verbiage.

He’s not even bothering to deny that he’s ditched the basis upon which he was elected.

Three years is a long time. Probably still another two to go. He’s moved a long way for sure. Might have always meant to… the charge will be that anyway from those on left of the party annoyed about how he has been pathing the way towards a possible Labour government.

moved a long way for sure

I don’t think he’s moved at all.