Ah, February 2020 at Kings College then.

So why the **** was Blair telling them not to be complacent? Why did he think that they might be complacent?

At that point Labour hadn’t led in one single opinion poll since the general election. In fact the first opinion poll that had Labour in the lead was in late September last year, and that was short-lived.

Prescient, no?

Oh I see, he was predicting complacency, despite no evidence, because he assumed Starmer’s leadership would be a roaring success and voters would flock to Labour.

Personally I would prefer if Blair kept his advice for despots. They seem to value it and are prepared to reward him handsomely.

he was predicting complacency, despite no evidence

He was warning about the danger of it.

Looking at the current polls doesn’t tell you just how big a mountain Labour have to climb. And they don’t currently look as if they’re bothered about establishing more than a basecamp for future expeditions. If they want to seriously trouble the government at the next election, they need to move Starmer aside, and install someone else, before then.

At least a catastrophic defeat of Starmsky in an early election might hasten a bit of change but who else is there?

I’ve thrown three hats in the ring… Lewis, Lammy & Miliband. I don’t think it’ll be any of them though, sadly. If the vote was May next year, and she put herself forward, I think Rayner would walk it. Jarvis looks to be positioning himself to run if there’s a chance to do so this side of the election as well. I don’t think Nandy is in a position to do well with the members, but could get lots of MP supporters.

Oh, I like Dr Rosina Allin-Khan as well, and one of her negatives … caught breaking rules dividing campaigning and parliamentary work … would probably be send as a positive for her if she was on the government benches.

I think Rayner would walk it.

No chance. If this place is indicative of centrist liberal England then Rayner is a thick northern slag who is incapable of being pm. I mean just think, she might cause an international incident by shagging a foreign president or something because she can’t keep her legs shut.

Does that explain the Richard Madeley reference to being his ‘best girl’? A bit like Liam Fox’s ‘firm friend/best man’?

No chance. If this place is indicative of centrist liberal England then Rayner is a thick northern slag who is incapable of being pm.

Or alternatively some of us just think she wouldn’t actually be liked by most voters so wouldn’t actually win an election for Labour. I don’t think she is that good, but guess what, it is not because I think she is a thick northern slag.

If this place is indicative of centrist liberal England

The thing with this mythical “centrist liberal England” is that it is a created catch 22 situation. the swing voters that have won elections for the past 40 years, have won elections for the past 40 years because politics has targeted them at the expense of the majority, and especially the disenfranchised voters who outnumber them by some margin.

If Labour want to win they need to stop pretending centrists are the only game in town, and start making inroads into the millions of people who feel rejected by the current political bubble.

Starmer has to contest the next election. He can still win, mid term blues and normal polling patterns are out the window with covid & Brexit imo.

Starmer is doing shit but if you win a leadership election you should fight the GE.

Clive Lewis didn’t get enough nominations last time, Allin-khan wouldn’t get enough if it was now. I’m not sure that the others would tbh.

Anyone noticed that whatever small ruckus anyone in the Labour party makes (Angela Rayner “Scum, Air pods” etc) it becomes the talking point.

Yet when the Tories destroy, absolve and spend without any account it’s easier to brush under carpet?

It’s obvious – I know, but until we alter the narrative from petty stupid things to what really matters (given Labour always have to – against the odds, sort out the social mess from the Tories) – I can’t see a way out.

There’s no way before the Pandemic that we would have predicted what the Tories would have been allowed to get away with.

Social media appears to have hugely contributed to the success of the Tory party.

On every level.

some of us just think she wouldn’t actually be liked by most voters so wouldn’t actually win an election for Labour

The evidence that being personally liked by voters translates into support on election day is weak.

After the heady days of cleggmania (a recognised phenomena which made the dictionary) many assumed that there would be a huge surge of support for the LibDems. There wasn’t, it had no discernible effect at all. However much liked by the electorate their leader was voters weren’t anymore convinced that the LibDems had anything worthwhile to offer.

For a reverse example of that take Margaret Thatcher. She was widely seen as an unpleasant person yet many were prepared to vote for her, despite not liking her, because they were convinced that what she was offering was necessary. Very few people visualised Thatcher as the sort of person they would enjoy a drink down the pub with.

The British electorate, despite imo often being wrong, is far more sophisticated than many on here give them credit for.

The evidence that being personally liked by voters translates into support on election day is weak.

I guess like all things though, as much as that’s true, Johnson breaks that mold, I think people like him (or at least like the public persona he portrays), unlike Thatcher they could imagine having a pint with him down the local and lots of folks that voted for him are under no illusion that he’s a bit shit at the job, but still preferred that over Corbyn’s offer.

I think this pic by Cold War Steve really sums it up:

FFS man just answer the damn question!

Will you raise the minimum wage to £10 and reinstate the UC cut? Yes!

Where will the money come from? From normal govt finances and budgeting!

What does taxing fairly mean? Taxing the rich more!

So a wealth tax? Yes!

And stop f***** saying ‘this is what the govt are doing’. You’re not their spokesman, you’re the bloody opposition! FFS how hard is it to just be straight with people and say what you would do?

"We need to make sure we grow the economy and tax fairly."@KayBurley quizzes shadow minister James Murray on Labour's plans in opposition to cuts to universal credit, the jobs tax and freeze on personal allowance.https://t.co/iOm40vn1kt #KayBurley pic.twitter.com/7DUk8N65j9

— Sky News (@SkyNews) October 26, 2021

Social media appears to have hugely contributed to the success of the Tory party

See the recent research about how twitter amplifies right wing stories much more than left wing stories. Essentially it’s much easier to scare/wind people up/create conflict with stories that play on people’s fear of foreigners, commies, people who don’t look like you, young people, dole scroungers, trans people etc than it is to be constructive. We’re screwed.

Still going round in circles I see.

No chance. If this place is indicative of centrist liberal England then Rayner is a thick northern slag who is incapable of being pm. I mean just think, she might cause an international incident by shagging a foreign president or something because she can’t keep her legs shut.

I’m sure there are some of those “centrists” who think that way, but let’s not forget the so called working classes who you appear to support heading off to vote for a Racist, homophobic, misogynistic party called the Conservative party eh?

In reality, Anyone seen to be be sharing the ideology of the previous Labour leadership will cause voting issues.

The thing with this mythical “centrist liberal England” is that it is a created catch 22 situation. the swing voters that have won elections for the past 40 years, have won elections for the past 40 years because politics has targeted them at the expense of the majority, and especially the disenfranchised voters who outnumber them by some margin.

If Labour want to win they need to stop pretending centrists are the only game in town, and start making inroads into the millions of people who feel rejected by the current political bubble.

Where to start with this one. Centrist liberal England isn’t a myth, it is unfortunately the key to winning elections under first past the post. I though this was pretty obvious.

Anyone noticed that whatever small ruckus anyone in the Labour party makes (Angela Rayner “Scum, Air pods” etc) it becomes the talking point.

Yet when the Tories destroy, absolve and spend without any account it’s easier to brush under carpet?

Blimey, another “I thought this was obvious” comment here on who the media in this country politically support.

She was widely seen as an unpleasant person yet many were prepared to vote for her, despite not liking her, because they were convinced that what she was offering was necessary.

The British electorate, despite imo often being wrong, is far more sophisticated than many on here give them credit for.

They got duped by the media back then, just as they are getting duped now, You give the British electorate far too much credit.

Centrist liberal England isn’t a myth, it is unfortunately the key to winning elections under first past the post.

This explains the success of the current government how exactly?

it is unfortunately the key to winning elections under first past the post

No it isn’t, it is where the political game is played by the Westminster bubble, not where it could be played if they wanted to appeal to a wider audience.

This was seen in the US elections recently, it wasn’t swing voters who got rid of Trump, it was 10+ million who wouldn’t normally vote. Now in that case they were motivated to get rid of Trump. But these people will come out to vote if they believe they have something to vote for.

Aiming policies at a few hundred thousand swing voters in swing seats is turning away millions of potential voters.

Instead, Labour should concentrate on left wing voters like myself, and ignore every UK election of the last 50 years.

Instead, Labour should concentrate on left wing voters like myself

Any self-respecting objective left wing voter wouldn’t be touching the current labour party with a bargepole. See above, they can’t even articulate a clear vision for raising low pay and preventing abject poverty which is their number one, principal reason for existing. They’ll be saying improving the NHS isn’t their job next.

Left wing policies are popular with the electorate.

El-bent Free Member

Still going round in circles I see.

Who are you talking about……. the Labour leadership?

Or are you confident that they marching to victory with unwavering determination?

Your intense dislike of anyone to the left of Tony Blair is well-established El-bent. But how about you now provide your critique of the current Labour leadership?

I don’t know about anyone else but I personally would be fascinated on hearing your opinions of Keir Starmer and how he’s doing as Labour Leader.

Don’t be shy to talk about Starmer, this thread after all is dedicated to him.

And so few of Starmer’s supporters appear to want to talk about him. They seem strangely more interested in talking about other people.

And so few of Starmer’s supporters appear to want to talk about him.

dazh voted for him… and is very happy to share his opinion of his time as leader… otherwise, who do you want to hear from?

Most people wisely stopped even opening this thread long ago. It just goes into every decreasing circular arguments that bore us all. Evil centrists. Unrealistic lefties. War on the left. They started it. Round and round…

ctk says he “has to” still be the leader going into the next election… not sure that makes them a “supporter” though. Actually, ctk… why does he “have to”?

And yes, policy by policy, left wing policies are popular, even in England, but when the voters are offered a full left wing platform for vote for, they invariably don’t in large enough numbers.

dazh voted for him… and is very happy to share his opinion of his time as leader… otherwise, who do you want to hear from?

I thought it was obvious?……. someone who actually supports Starmer.

Clearly dazh doesn’t but I get every indication that El-bent does.

If you are not interested in people’s opinions of Starmer why do you repeatedly click on a thread with the title : Sir! Keir! Starmer! ?

The evidence that being personally liked by voters translates into support on election day is weak.

Well liked more than the alternative leader rather than liked as such. Has been the case every time in the last 50 years.

I don’t see that at all kerley, I think you might be confusing liking policies with liking an individual.

There is no evidence that voters thought Thatcher was a nicer person than Jim Callahan, or that they would prefer to go to the pub with John Major rather than Neil Kinnock, or that they David Cameron was a great person compared to Ed Miliband.

Policies was the primary deciding factor, and the ability of the individual, rather than whether they they liked them.

Personal appeal plays a part but I don’t see evidence that it does to the extent some people seem to think it does.

Edit : I would be interested in your opinion concerning why cleggmania didn’t translate into increase support for the LibDems.

Centrist liberal England isn’t a myth, it is unfortunately the key to winning elections under first past the post. I though this was pretty obvious.

Yes it is a myth. If it was correct the Lib dems would be pissing all over everyone.
They are the voters who can often swing the election but on their own they arent enough.
So if you chase them and piss all over the other voters then good luck since you wont see power.

The problem is many of the centrists are loonies who really believe they are the silent majority and hence everyone else should bow to their wishes and get the leftover scraps. This trick might work once or twice but soon fails.
Since the centrists have shown their utter disdain for anyone left of them then its a tricky sell nowadays.

was a nicer person

a great person

You are greatly over simplifying the idea of “liking” a political leader.

Well I’m a simple soul. I can’t handle anything too complicated.

Yep, I didn’t say nicer or great, I said liked (or preferred maybe a better word)

Blair – preferred
Blair – preferred again
Brown – not preferred, Cameron wins
Miliband – we know how that went
Corbyn – we really know how that went as probably the most disliked for a long time and even lost to May who was not setting a high bar
Starmer, not a chance against Johnson

See how it goes now?

Will Murdoch choose Starmer, or stick with Boris/the tories?

Because that’s how it really goes.

I said liked (or preferred maybe a better word)

Blair – preferred
Blair – preferred again
Brown – not preferred,

Preferred is a completely different word to liked. It is spelt differently and has a different meaning.

I will repeat my claim :

The evidence that being personally liked by voters translates into support on election day is weak.

During the heady days of cleggmania Nick Clegg was well liked by voters, apparently more than any other party leader. That did not translate into more support for the LibDems than the other parties.

He was not preferred by voters.

However much liked by the electorate their leader was voters weren’t anymore convinced that the LibDems had anything worthwhile to offer.

Edit : How typical that a political discussion among a bunch of middle-class liberals should be reduced to semantics – and then they wonder why they struggle in elections!

People can like someone who they don’t think is a “nicer person”. In fact, some people can like a political leader partly because they are not “nice”. For some people “nice” is a sign of weakness in a leader, they want someone who’ll do and say things that they consider far from “nice”.

As for the Clegg stuff… maintaining support for any third party as election day draws in is always hard with FPTP… even if you like the leader, support the policies, and favour your local parliamentary candidate… if you’re in a Tory/Labour marginal, the reality of the (high) risk of wasting your vote becomes clear when it comes to putting a cross in one box. Charles Kennedy was probably more widely liked then Clegg ever was, and for a more sustained period of time, but faced much the same issues when it came to electing MPs.

Farrage is an even better example of someone liked as party leader, but who failed when it came to getting MPs elected. He would have probably been far more successful if he was Conservative Party leader. FPTP protects our two biggest parties from challenger parties and MPs.

FPTP protects our two biggest parties from challenger parties and MPs politicians.

Need to remember that Farrage was never even an MP!

Anyway, today is all about getting the possible next PM ready to defeat Starmer or his successor. The Sunak PR assault will be huge today. Will Starmer or Reeves even be noticed?

During the heady days of cleggmania Nick Clegg was well liked by voters, apparently more than any other party leader. That did not translate into more support for the LibDems than the other parties.

Cleggmania was a flash in the pan after a leader debate in 2010 that lasted a few weeks at best, and given that he was debating with Call-me-Dave and Gordon (is he a robot) Brown that’s not a massively high bar. And the Lib-Dems got into government in the subsequent election and increased their vote share, although they lost seats.  Given that 3rd parties never do well in a FPTP system that’s a pretty good result.

How typical that a political discussion among a bunch of middle-class liberals should be reduced to semantics

Says the communist, literally the home for petty political divisions…

Anyway, today is all about getting the next PM ready to defeat Starmer or his successor.

There’s not a chance in hell that the tories will vote for a p*** as leader. Sorry for the blunt language, but that’s how your average ignorant and bigoted tory member will see it. I could be wrong, but I just think it’s a red line for most tories. In many ways I hope he is as it could be the only way for labour to win back the working class racist vote.

Says the communist

Communist? Have I missed something?

I could be wrong

I think you may well be.

Anyway, Starmer and Reeves… will they make any impact today?