grum
Free Member

I was honestly optimistic about Starmer and thought he could be a good person to make Labour more electable. He’s been a bitter disappointment in every way.

Same here. I worried he’d get crucified for being a remainer, but as it turns out, it doesn’t really matter- they can more or less just ignore him

Have you ever considered that instead of spending all their time

Who says they’re spending all their time looking for traps? This one, despite your not being able to see it, was pretty obvious. I’d be worried about them if they’d been spending all their time looking out for it. Maybe it might have taken you quite a while but I’m sure they’ve more important focus groups to be running in the meantime. 🙂

This one, despite your not being able to see it

Labour are busy trying not to fall into policy traps like corporation tax, whilst the tories have them abandoning their core principles and playing on the pitch of outdated 20th century economics. It’s tactics vs strategy and labour look like amateurs.

And as for corporation tax, as I said previously it’s not about using it to raise revenue to pay off the debt or keeping it low to boost the economy, it’s about addressing the inequality caused by covid. Even the guardian gets it FFS, and labour, as is their MO under Starmer are way behind everyone else. Hardly a surprise when you have the likes of LIsa Nandy in the shadow cabinet who doesn’t even know that corporation tax is levied on profits not income.

You contradict yourself so much. You want austerity measures to come while we’re in the middle of the worst economic downturn in our lifetimes, and accuse others of 20th century economics. Now is not the time to constrict anything, and Labour should not back the Tories if they choose to. In a few years, then redistributive taxation changes will be coming down the line, from the Tories, in preparation for the election as much as anything, and at that point Labour should embrace that as well, while pointing out who is being missed by whatever the Tories are proposing (and they will miss many, at both ends of the distribution, as they deliberately make fresh loopholes for the richest, and miss helping others at the bottom and middle through ignorance of their situations… they always do).

The next General Election will be in 2024.

How many of today’s considerations do you think will still be in play?

Nice thread from Richard Murphy about money supply and the nonsense of government ‘debt’.

Primer for MMT.

We have just had another week when the media has obsessed about what they call the UK’s national debt. There has been wringing of hands. The handcart in which we will all go to hell has been oiled. And none of this is necessary. So this is a thread on what you really need to know

— Richard Murphy (@RichardJMurphy) March 2, 2021

(Needs expanding. Quite lengthy)

The next General Election will be in 2024.

Probably.

It could be earlier if Johnson can sell the myth that we got out of the covid slump quicker than the rest of Europe due to vaccines and the true disparity of that recovery (due to Brexit) is not yet staring the electorate in the face.

They could perceive that there is a narrow window of opportunity before the true impact of Brexit is obvious enough to enough of the ‘great’ British public.

You want austerity measures to come while we’re in the middle of the worst economic downturn in our lifetimes

No, I don’t. You really are the master at putting words in people’s mouths. It’s a pretty crappy trick, like something you’d see at a university debating society. 🙄

Putting up corporation tax a few points or not will make almost no difference to anything in economic terms. What it does do however is send a signal to working people that the government is on their side and wants to redress the imbalance between those who’ve done very well out of covid, and those who have suffered. On one side we have man of the people Johnson trying to ‘level up’, on the other an out of touch city solicitor standing up for the profits of corporations. The tories are running rings around labour,  and it’s cringeworthy to watch.

On one side we have man of the people Johnson trying to ‘level up’, on the other an out of touch city solicitor standing up for the profits of corporations. The tories are running rings around labour, and it’s cringeworthy to watch.

Please put speech marks around ‘Man of the People’. The thought that anyone might genuinely think he is actually makes a little bit of sick want to come out.

Otherwise (and **** me I never thought I’d see the day) I am beginning to agree with you.

The problem is that the public’s perception has been so warped by being told what they want to hear and having their petty prejudices played back to them as ‘news’ that many literally cannot see Johnson and his rabble for the frauds they are.

Stupidity is strength, it would seem.

That’s why I do think there is an opportunity for Labour to come out as the ‘Bollocks to Brexit’ party. If most of the population think that real life mirrors a plotline in Hollyoaks then it is time to start playing down to that mindset.

You really are the master at putting words in people’s mouths.

No, I’m not. Increasing taxes is austerity. Along with restraints on public spending. And there is no need to do either right now… and to do so would be economically damaging… but more than that… it’s buying into to the “start paying back the debt right now, despite the hole we’re in” narrative that ALL the political parties got wrong after the 2008 crash. Delay the claw back, there is A LOT to do right now as we come back from Covid AND we are expecting our businesses to refocus from business models that assumed a large home market that has just become an export/import market. Now is not the time to increases taxes on business, or workers… or the time to cut Universal Credit and other benefits… not the time for pay freezes for public sector workers… not the time to tighten our belts… it’s time to invest… rebalancing tax burdens and making then fairer comes later, if your methods involve higher taxes… if anything… a tax break/cut for the low paid should be the priority this year… paired with the same for smaller businesses, especially those with a physical presence in our communities. No taxes should rise this year… in a few years, I’d be fully behind reformed NI & CGT that doesn’t let the higher paid of the hook… and additional business taxes aimed at larger companies. Not now.

Please put speech marks around ‘Man of the People’. The thought that anyone might genuinely think he is actually makes a little bit of sick want to come out.

They absolutely do think this. The only people who don’t are a few diehard lefties and hand-wringing middle class liberals. If there’s one thing the tories learnt from Corbyn, it’s that the on the ground hand-shaking, hard hat wearing, talking in normal language stuff works. Johnson, like Corbyn (pre-2017 election before the AS nonsense) comes across as a normal bloke surrounded by technocrats telling him what he can’t do. Starmer on the other hand is the uber-technocrat. It’s really quite clever, they’ve turned a wibbling upper class buffoon into a salt of the earth bloke ‘saying it as it is’ and trying his best despite the naysaying bureaucrats trying to hold him back. And as for the election, it’s game set and match. I wouldn’t be surprised if we get one next year.

They absolutely do think this. The only people who don’t are a few diehard lefties and hand-wringing middle class liberals.

Ah good, I feel like we can start arguing again.

That is palpably not true as an awful lot of people I know are neither of those things. What they tend to be is reasonably intelligent and aware.

The problem is that the population at large is infinitely more gullible than anyone realised.

I do agree that the next GE may be surprisingly early to some. There is going to be a sweet spot for the Tories when we are moving out of the worst of the pandemic (maybe even slightly ahead of the rest of europe as a whole) and the onset of the realisation that the proper long-term recovery is being hobbled by Brexit and the rest of Europe is vanishing into the distance down the track. Leaving ‘our’ shitty Allegro conking out at the side of the track.

We have, it seems, a childish electorate. It might be time for Labour to realise that. If your average pillock in the street looks at PMQs and thinks “that’s it, that is how politics is” then it is time to break out the rattles and duplo blocks for them.

Boris is going to be absolutely itching to have an election while he’s basking in the reflected glory of the one thing (admittedly a pretty important one) that him and his hopeless cabinet have managed not to **** up since they came to power.

There will indeed be a sweet spot as lockdown lifts and they haven’t yet ****ed up the recovery as the reality of Brexit hits the real economy.

Is it right though that the labour party would have to be complicit in granting an election, because of the fixed term parliament act? Everyone told Grandad not to grant one last time, but he’s an idiot so he did. We all know how that went. What would labour do this time around?

The problem is that the population at large is infinitely more gullible than anyone realised.

Gullibility is a function of being disengaged and disinterested. If you want that to improve you need to do all the things I’ve been going on about for ages.

and the onset of the realisation that the proper long-term recovery is being hobbled by Brexit and the rest of Europe is vanishing into the distance down the track

Off the back of brexit govt stimulus was always going to be neeeded to paper over the cracks, and covid massively amplifies that. If there is to be an early election the justification will be that Boris needs a fresh mandate to go on a spending binge the likes of which we’ve not seen since WW2. It won’t be Starmer playing the Clement Atlee role, it will be Johnson. The PR machine is already setting him up for it.

Boris is going to be absolutely itching to have an election

There’s no need for the Conservatives to call an early election. They currently feel that they are ahead of Labour, twice… they have two candidates to stand to be PM at the next election… they think they are both winning hands… that both can beat a fractured and out of the practice of government Labour party… and can play either in good time. Look how much UK gov money has been thrown at Sunak’s campaign messaging and adverts (in all but name… they claim to be important government communications). They can take their time… they are as good as assuming they have nine free years to leach of us and transform the UK… why risk reducing that to 6 or 7? They’ll take all five years that the last election gave them… and look forward to another five following on from that, like night follows day.

Is it right though that the labour party would have to be complicit in granting an election

Right now it is, but the tories are committed to repealing the fixed term parliament act. If they want an early election, you can bet it’ll be in the queen’s speech in October. Even if they don’t though, it’s not a good look for any oppositon to be running away from an election, they’re almost obliged to accept the challenge, just as Corbyn was rail-roaded into it by the SNP and libdems.

Is it right though that the labour party would have to be complicit in granting an election, because of the fixed term parliament act?

Nope. People get confused about the fixed term act and think it actually means something. Although it has the 2/3 requirement to pass there is nothing preventing parliament passing a one off act or just revoking the fixed term parliament with the normal majority vote.
As such its pointless waffle the tories created to keep the libdems happy and quiet.

Everyone told Grandad not to grant one last time, but he’s an idiot so he did

Then those people were, to put it politely, absolute morons.
He didnt have a choice.
As above it just needed a majority for it and so once the Libdems and SNP said they were going to support it Labour couldnt have prevented it.
If they had abstained or opposed it would have been double down time on the bullshit about undermining democracy and so on.

Increasing taxes isn’t automatically austerity, that’s absolute horseshit. Sorry to be so blunt but I doubt anyone can actually believe it’s true. And saying that someone’s in favour of a particular tax increase is asking for austerity is the exact same. It’s either unfathomably wrong or it’s dishonest, there’s no other option.

vazaha
Free Member

The next General Election will be in 2024.

How many of today’s considerations do you think will still be in play?

Well, ya know, that’s kind of the problem. The last year’s considerations absolutely should still be in play. A government that killed tens of thousands of people while handing huge contracts to their mates so they could do **** all with it and make the crisis worse, that’s not single news cycle stuff. Hancock was like a mugger walking out of court laughing about how he made the victim cry.

The same with brexit. Even now we’re hearing that it turned out fine because there aren’t queues of trucks- when that’s in large part because there’s no point putting some stuff on the trucks. But it’s already passing into “old news” even though the effects on people’s lives and the economy will be absolutely fresh in 2024.

It’s not exactly healthy to think about these things in terms of political opportunity, but that’s what they come down to. This government has been allowed to just laugh it off. When covid and brexit is mentioned in the next general election it’s going to be as much from the tories patting themselves on the back about it. And yes Starmer’s leadership is a huge part of that sadly.

I actually expected Starmer to be good at this stuff- the whole prosecutor thing, holding people to account, stackling Johnston’s biffle boffle with hard facts and keeping nailing home the horrendous truths of the last year. There were early signs of it.

There were early signs of it.

To be honest, its difficult to see how anyone could have any more impact on the present government. Johnson knew he was getting taken to the cleaners at PMQ’s every week so he simply started ignoring everything Starmer said and just waffling instead. He doesn’t even offer any pretence that he’s actually answering questions

At the same time the Tory’s made sure that the media had no access to either the PM or the cabinet. They don’t do media interviews, they don’t do anything. They’re completely invisible. Boris is still essentially hidden in a fridge. They only appear, very rarely, at carefully stage-managed press conferences, flanked by non-political medical experts, where they can’t really be questioned in any meaningful way.

I think we need to acknowledge that the pandemic has allowed the government to re-write the whole relationship between the executive and the people, via the media. They seemed to have used North Korea as a model.

Unfortunately 23rd June 2016 gave the Tories a cast-iron marker of just how stupid the general population is.

They’ve been leveraging it ever since.

To be honest, its difficult to see how anyone could have any more impact on the present government.

I expect you’ll be saying that when Johnson extends his majority. Either that or ‘it’s all Corbyn’s fault’. FFS man just admit Starmer’s been shit and is being outclassed by a mop haired alcoholic clown.

As has been pointed out infinitely to you, as it stands there isn’t going to be an election for 4 years.

So if you wanted to use the footballing analogies that I know you love, we’re not even half way through the first half. Yet you’ve got the next election as lost with an increased Tory majority

outclassed

Quite the opposite, in fact.

But it is what is successful nowadays with the ‘great’ british public, and that is a damning indictment of ‘us’ as a populace.

Johnson as PM is a living insult to anyone who takes even a little bit of pride in their intellect or has a shred of self respect.

Four years from now is 2025. The last legal date for the next election is December ’24, and there’s not a cat’s chance in hell they’ll leave it that long. I’ll be spring ’23 most likely, that’s two years away. It could easily be next year if we come out of the pandemic and they decide a reset is the best policy. Johnson will go as soon as he thinks he can because firstly he’s a gambler, and secondly he’s not going to hang around whilst Sunak PR machine does it’s work.

Yeah, 3 years. Enjoy getting such a huge one over on Binners with your pedantry. See you out campaigning for Labour in 2024? That’s when the election will be… there is no reason whatsoever for the government to go do the polls… they haven’t even decided who’ll lead that campaign yet, and are pilling government money into the PR campaigns of both their hopefuls. Where as Labour will stick with their candidate, till after at least one general election loss… hopefully not two this time.

Enjoy getting such a huge one over on Binners with your pedantry.

It’s 3 years max. Very likely closer to two. Does nearly 50% less time pass your pedantry test?

See you out campaigning for Labour in 2024?

No chance, I won’t even be voting for them unless Starmer has a lobotomy and suddenly remembers which party he leads.

Thought not. Wouldn’t put it past you to vote for Johnson/Sunak to teach people a lesson, or something.

Very likely closer to two.

Why? What on earth would Johnson gain from another election cycle any earlier than he has to? Even money on Sunak being handed the baton anyway… May 2024… he’ll be sold as both a new broom, and having all the experience of being at the heart of government though “interesting” times… cake and eat… and a hell of a lot of people will buy it… again… while people who claim to be “of the left” will sit on their hands because the alternative isn’t led by someone left wing in their eyes.

I’ll vote for whoever supports real change rather than fannying around the edges with the same outdated failed solutions. Nothing will change as long as people keep voting for the same things.

Nothing will change, because we’ll keep electing Conservative governments promising change. Partly because many people will sit out the FPTP mess waiting for something that just isn’t coming.

Sorry about that… I’m ranting at myself there, not you Dazh… I didn’t vote Labour ’til Corbyn moved their policy base leftwards in the 2017 manifesto… and in hindsight, not voting Labour under Blair, Brown and Miliband was self obsessed nonsense. I was wrong. In General Elections, in England, in most seats, under our system, you have two choices… ignoring that because the alternative to the Conservatives is led by someone who isn’t close enough to you own wishes and politics is exactly the selfish behaviour I indulged in for most of my life. Voting based on “policies” and the best path forward… maybe one day we’ll have a voting system where that makes sense… but for now we could very well be facing permanent Tory rule for the rest of our lives… which is great if you like moaning. The Greens, or someone else, having policies closer to mine is irrelevant, when 3% of people can vote that way, and get one MP to represent them. If the left choose not to support Labour in seats where it is very much Conservative versus Labour… they going to have to enjoy moaning. A lot.

In General Elections, in England, in most seats, under our system, you have two choices

If Starmer continues on his current path, the two choices will be Coke or Pepsi. He’s managing to make the Blair government look radical. And before anyone starts, I voted Labour in ’97.

WAR CRIMINAL!!!!

Sorry about that… I’m ranting at myself there, not you Dazh

Rant away, this is the place for it! 🙂

Seriously though, the more and more I look at politics the more I think it’s pretty irrelevant. It’s becoming ever more clear to me that change can’t be achieved through the political system, because it’s been corrupted to such an extent by private interests that it offers nothing to normal people beyond virtue signalling and theatre. It’s a game, where you pick which side to support and win bragging rights over the opposition, and a career opportunity for people with psychopathic or narcissistic tendencies. Best just to look at it for what it is, which is the sort of mild diversion provided by a soap opera.

I agree. I just wish we didn’t have to give a bunch of Tory **** a go for so long. By the time people vote for the changes they need, it’ll be too late anyway.

And talking about entertainment..

Increase income tax for the top 5% of earners, reverse the Tories’ cuts in corporation tax and clamp down on tax avoidance, particularly of large corporations. No stepping back from our core principles. pic.twitter.com/lb02NcvyvO

— Keir Starmer (@Keir_Starmer) February 12, 2020

All good stuff. All before we knew the terms of Brexit, and the scale and cost of the pandemic though. Both need addressing. We are not where we were a year ago.

See you out campaigning for Labour in 2024?

I doubt many people will be out campaigning for Labour at this rate.

All good stuff. All before we knew the terms of Brexit, and the scale and cost of the pandemic though. Both need addressing. We are not where we were a year ago.

Ok so why not say that? Why not tell people that he hasn’t actually abandoned all his supposed principles he’s just being pragmatic?

Seriously though, the more and more I look at politics the more I think it’s pretty irrelevant.

This, sadly.

So… the corporation tax increase “now” thing was a trap for Labour to walk into… who’d have thunk it?!? Not happening for two years, and tapered for smaller companies (well companies with lower profits anyway). Could have been written by Dodds.

Thought provoking piece (not sure I totally buy it) about how Shithead’s 80 seat majority means he can tolerate more dissenting voices, which in turn means the tories can seem to represent disparate groups. Especially if they can filter which messages get to which people.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/mar/03/boris-johnson-tory-party-infighting-labour-government

So… the corporation tax increase “now” thing was a trap for Labour to walk into

And walk into it they did. While labour were worrying about what their stance should be on corporation tax, the tories were strategically positioning themselves as defenders of working people while labour were defending the interests of business. The end result being former labour voters in the ‘red wall’ (f***** hell I hate that phrase!) thinking the tories are on their side while labour only care about the city-based elite. It’s brexit culture war politics without brexit.