I grasped your point and answered it in my view, I think you are missing the context of my post when chopping snippets.
Do you accept the 55% of remainers are the majority in Scotland? in my view it was clearly decided in a very recent ref where everyone was well aware of the significance…which makes any talk of ‘nobody is listening’ sound a bit crazy don’t you think?

So you would be happy to leave the union with a 51/49 split? Fair enough I guess as you I assume are on the other side of that fence currently, it just looks very messy to me if you can’t create a clear majority going forward

slackalice

Subscriber
I thought the Bank of Scotland had already been bought by the people? 😉

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/uk-international-reserves/2019/january-2019

UK International Reserves – January 2019
The Bank of England manages the UK’s official reserves on behalf of the Government.

Speaking of assets, lets have a gander at countries assets minus liabilities.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_total_wealth

country – (billions)
UK – $14,630

So doing some fag packet economics. Scotland is 8.2% of the uk population.

So 8.2% of uk assets and liabilities $1,199.66bn

Lets have a look at similar size countries, ie about 5 million people, near by:

Ireland – $951bn
Norway – $1,096bn
Slovakia – $287bn
Finland – $795bn
Denmark – $1,271bn

Scotland seems fairly well placed to me.

I thought the Bank of Scotland had already been bought by the people

Again,more sneering ignorance from those south of the border who are unable to understand the difference between the Bank of Scotland and the Royal Bank of Scotland. Keep it up

And yes, we’ll take our share of the debt too.

Sitting about £1,821.3bn for the uk. x 0.082 Scotland’s share. £149.4bn.

Ideas that Scotland can’t afford independence are nonsense.

Going on my fag packet ecomonics, IS could start debt free with a positive balance of about $1trillion dollars or about £750/800bn

So you would be happy to leave the union with a 51/49 split?

I think using simple majority referendums to decide issues of major national importance has been demonstrated to be a very bad idea. However, that cat is well and truly out of the bag now, so I think the answer to your question has to be “yes”.

Do you accept the 55% of remainers are the majority in Scotland?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence

Recent polling suggests pro union is struggling to get above 50%.

Lets see how that changes over the next couple of years.

Sorry don’t know how to quote but in response to:

ideas that Scotland can’t afford independence are nonsense.

I’m not saying you are wrong, I’m not sure, but aren’t Scotland dependent on money from the Barnett formula every year to meet their annual spending? I also read somewhere that 60 to 70% of their trade us with England and Wales, and only 10 to 20% is with the EU. Also, Scotlands budget deficit is much higher than Englands, I think 6 or 7 times higher. Again, no link so not sure, but if the above is correct surely this would mean that Scotland would struggle to afford independence and maintain their current public spending and tax ratio. Finally, there is an element of doubt that the EU would definitely let Scotland rejoin after they leave next year, although if it came to that I really hope they would. I would have thought something would have to give based on these simple economics, but I’ll happily concede I’m no expert and may be wrong.

Yep, my apologies for my cheap shot re the BoS. I was out of order.

exsee

Do you accept the 55% of remainers are the majority in Scotland? in my view it was clearly decided in a very recent ref where everyone was well aware of the significance…which makes any talk of ‘nobody is listening’ sound a bit crazy don’t you think?

Do you accept that democracy allows people to change their minds? If not, why do we have elections?

Let’s look at just one large voting bloc as an example. The Scots govt estimates that there are about 240,000 EU residents, and about another 110,000 from other countries.

During that referendum, the Unionist side made much of “You’ll be out of the EU”, no trade agreements etc.

Most Scots want to stay in the EU, so that was effective, especially as “nationalistic” Scotland allows EU citizens to vote here.

With 240,000 EU residents fearing for their right to stay in Scotland, their vote predictably strongly supported the Union.

The difference between the 2 sides in the referendum was 400,000 votes, so a bloc of 240k+ would have swung it the other way.

(A considerable proportion of the many English born people also voted to stay in the Union – which is no surprise. Perhaps that would be different this time too.)

Now we are leaving the EU in a referendum in which EU residents had no say, which way do you think the EU residents in Scotland will vote in a new referendum?

Sorry don’t know how to quote but in response to:

ideas that Scotland can’t afford independence are nonsense.

I’m not saying you are wrong, I’m not sure, but aren’t Scotland dependent on money from the Barnett formula every year to meet their annual spending? I also read somewhere that 60 to 70% of their trade us with England and Wales, and only 10 to 20% is with the EU. Also, Scotlands budget deficit is much higher than Englands, I think 6 or 7 times higher. Again, no link so not sure, but if the above is correct surely this would mean that Scotland would struggle to afford independence and maintain their current public spending and tax ratio. Finally, there is an element of doubt that the EU would definitely let Scotland rejoin after they leave next year, although if it came to that I really hope they would. I would have thought something would have to give based on these simple economics, but I’ll happily concede I’m no expert and may be wrong.

The UK has been dependent on borrowing forever, not like scotland is alone, The books look ok for england at a minute, but lets not pretend that’s the norm. It’s not unusual for a country to run itself as such.

The deficit is about 8% the now, about £12bn, high, but it’s not un-manageable. Borrowing will be available to Scotland, same as it is to every other country on earth. Even if not, 12bn per year, is only about 1 to 1.5% of the assets and liabilities that scotland would have post split, so there would be time to balance the books. Either by austerity, or by growing the economy.

Where’s the doubt in rejoining the EU coming form? Where’s the evidence that EU isn’t going to want to welcome existing EU citizens back into the fold with anything more than open arms?

Just look how much support they’ve given Ireland recently, Boris crumbled under that and sold the DUP down the river. The EU is more than willing to back EU small nations. I doubt very much Scotland will be viewed as a “new” member given our history as being EU citizens for the last 40 years. The EU are well aware Scotland is pro-EU.

The EU are all about growing it’s size and influence, they aren’t going to say no to Scotland. Why would the EU say no to turning a large part of the island of Britain back into EU territory? Where’s the negative for them in that?

I’d also put the question back to you, why will trade between Scotland and rUK disappear?

I thought the post Brexit uk was all about trade?

It’s touted quite often that Scotland is dependent on the rest of the UK but it’s hard to fathom. Nationalist propaganda would say that we have more arable land, natural resources, renewable resources, tourism, etc per head than any of the rest of the UK which I’d tend to believe. It’s also mentioned that Scotland’s exports go via English ports and thus are included in the UK figures rather than Scottish. I’d also hope we wouldn’t waste money on nuclear weapons or trying to pretend we are still a super power. Nae expert either mind you and I’m sure someone will have ‘facts’ to disprove any of the above.

The government of France recently bought a landmark building on Edinburgh’s Royal Mile which they currently operate as an Institute Français. It’s far too big and prominent for a Consulate (in any event they already have one of those in Edinburgh), but about the right size for an Embassy.

If you’re reading the tea leaves that’ll tell you something about EU attitude to Scotland.

Scotland has most of the EUs oil, most of its fish, most of its wind and tidal power potential and would be a net contributor. Plus how much would they enjoy sticking two fingers up to little england? Its a given that scotland would be welcomed back into the EU indeed the day after a yes vote I would bet the EU would find some nice transiutional arrangements to make this as smooth as possible

I dunno why folk on heree have said England would remain in alignment with the EU. It will not. thats been the aim of Johnsons paymasters – lower standards in everything

kennyp

Subscriber

Well given that 55% of folk who voted in Scotland nationally voted for parties explicitly opposed to a second independence referendum Boris Johnston’s brexit then it’s hard to see how the SNP government can claim a clear mandate.

How’s that? The mandate for a new independence referendum from this election is stronger than the mandate for Johnston’s brexit. (it is 46/54 not 45/55 incidentally- everyone forgets the Greens) If one is a mandate then both are. And they both are. The way this line’s getting trotted out against that background is just crazy.

This idea that you have to have a majority of support for anything doesn’t seem to apply anywhere else in UK politics. 45% is enough for a majority government, do we think that the UK government doesn’t have a mandate to rule because of that? Should the tories drop everything from their manifesto that didn’t have the support of one other party? No.

molgrips

Subscriber

It is, of course. And yet I still did. Because that’s what it looks like. You’re doing that arguing technique where you’re trying to make me look silly because I disagree with obvious facts, whereas in fact I am disputing that they are facts in the first place.

Um, no, I’m not doing any “arguing technique” apart from pointing out you’re seeing something where there’s no reason to see it. Epicyclo’s post isn’t even directed at any nationality. Companies aren’t people. I’ll just repost it for clarity:

epicyclo

Subscriber

Business abhors a vacuum so they would quickly be replaced. Only the new businesses would be paying tax and contributing to the economy instead of being parasites like those we lost.

Seriously, you are jumping at shadows. There’s nothing there that even looks like anti-english sentiment, or nationalism for that matter. Unless you can show me where it is in that? No.

exsee

Member

Do you accept the 55% of remainers are the majority in Scotland?

I accept that the 55% of No voters in 2014 was the majority in 2014. I don’t think there’s any reason to assume that with the seismic changes in UK politics that this one thing hasn’t changed while so much around it has. Especially considering what the key points of the argument were last time.

And every one of the changes which makes a new referendum likely were done by “unionists”. Cameron sowed the seeds of Brexit, Johnston will deliver it. Cameron said “better together” then the day after the referendum said “english votes for english laws”, called the first minister of scotland a pickpocket, and ran his next election campaign largely around bashing the scots. The tories gave us 5 years of austerity, 5 years of economic flatlining and mismanagement. And we ain’t seen nothing yet.

The SNP opposed literally all of these things. But they happened anyway, because in the UK we don’t have the power to prevent a government we rejected from doing what they want. And so the actions of unionists, resisted by scottish nationalists, have brought us to a point where another referendum beckons, where nothing we or the SNP could have done themselves would have brought that about. Funny old world, eh.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CDbegrWXIAAawbn.jpg:large

Quote from above:

I’d also put the question back to you, why will trade between Scotland and rUK disappear?
I thought the post Brexit uk was all about trade?

I think you’re right. I was referring to some arguments I had read in response to a Scottish referendum, and was just asking questions really, not arguing against you. I’m in favour of indyref2. I personally predict that trade would carry on fine as I said in my original post, just like I think it will for the wider UK with the EU after Brexit.

Still, it doesn’t really marry up to what Sturgeon has been saying. She can’t credibly claim that leaving the EU would be bad for the UK economy due to uncertainty etc, but then on the other hand claim leaving the UK would be totally fine. Scotland does a lot more trade with England than the EU. She seems to apply the same logic differently to Brexit and Scottish independence to me. So, either she is overestimating the damage of Brexit, or underestimating the potential dangers of independence.

Not got a dog in this fight and amnot Scottish but to repeat as I said in the last INDYREF thread,let the people decide.However

She seems to apply the same logic differently to Brexit and Scottish independence to me.

SNP haven’t even got a majority in the Scottish parliament and in fact got less votes overall than the opposing parties,who are ostensibly for the union.The SNP should wait until the next Scottish elections and if they are in the majority then should pursue the 2nd referendum route,however does that mean there’ll be a referendum every time they get a majority as opposed to once in a generation?

got less votes overall than the opposing parties,who are ostensibly for the union.

But you know that’s not how it works, right? When is the last time any UK Govt got the majority of the votes? In any case, the Greens are also pro-independence, so there’s your majority of MSPs

nick1962

Member

SNP haven’t even got a majority in the Scottish parliament

Pro-independence parties have a majority in the scottish parliament- you forgot the greens (everyone forgets the greens). Does that overcome your opposition?

Tom Zesty

Member
Quote from above:

I’d also put the question back to you, why will trade between Scotland and rUK disappear?
I thought the post Brexit uk was all about trade?

I think you’re right. I was referring to some arguments I had read in response to a Scottish referendum, and was just asking questions really, not arguing against you. I’m in favour of indyref2. I personally predict that trade would carry on fine as I said in my original post, just like I think it will for the wider UK with the EU after Brexit.

Still, it doesn’t really marry up to what Sturgeon has been saying. She can’t credibly claim that leaving the EU would be bad for the UK economy due to uncertainty etc, but then on the other hand claim leaving the UK would be totally fine. Scotland does a lot more trade with England than the EU. She seems to apply the same logic differently to Brexit and Scottish independence to me. So, either she is overestimating the damage of Brexit, or underestimating the potential dangers of independence.

The scottish government had control over £37bn of scotlands funding for 18/19. It has limited borrowing powers, took £450m(max it can borrow) in 17/18, and £250m in 18/19.

In the Gers figures it says Scotlands public expenditure was £75bn, and revenue was £63bn. (These are estimates largely btw, but I’ve no real reason to doubt they’ll be there or there abouts.)

The SNPs argument is basically that with full control over fiscal powers it’ll be able to control and grow the ecomony in a more beneficial way than can be done under current arrangements.

So the economic argument is different from that of the UK leaving the EU. The EU doesn’t control half of the UKs finances.

Whether the SNP can actually grow the economy if it had full control is another matter I guess and up for debate. We’ll only really find out for sure if that happens though.

FYi:

Scottish governments accounts 18/19:

https://www.gov.scot/binaries/content/documents/govscot/publications/publication/2019/09/scottish-government-consolidated-accounts-year-ended-31-march-2019/documents/scottish-government-consolidated-accounts-year-ended-31-march-2019/scottish-government-consolidated-accounts-year-ended-31-march-2019/govscot%3Adocument/scottish-government-consolidated-accounts-year-ended-31-march-2019.pdf?forceDownload=true

GERS 18/19:

https://www.gov.scot/binaries/content/documents/govscot/publications/statistics/2019/08/government-expenditure-revenue-scotland-gers/documents/government-expenditure-revenue-scotland-2018-19/government-expenditure-revenue-scotland-2018-19/govscot%3Adocument/government-expenditure-revenue-scotland-2018-19.pdf?forceDownload=true

Does that overcome your opposition?

No opposition at all personally was just putting myself in the shoes of what a Scottish voter was told at the last referendum.
TBH most folk in England I meet couldn’t really GAS what Scotland chooses to do if the British government deigns you another opportunity 😉

Would Scotland go € do you think? Pr has it been said previously?

personally I think going to the euro would make sense – but there is a lot of politics around currency.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-50805900

Interesting. Labour obviously panicking!

Going on my fag packet ecomonics, IS could start debt free with a positive balance of about $1trillion dollars or about £750/800bn

Should be noted I’m talking shit on that point I’m conflating unrelated data.

The £1tr is a quick estimate of the balance of Scotland’s wider economy. We would be liable for our part of the debt still. You cant subtract the debt from that.

On the debt. Uk interest payments are about £50bn so a large part of Scotland’s deficit goes to servicing that existing debt. About 4 to 5bn you could say I’d think.

@Northwind – is that Alex Salmond about to pinch someone’s bottom?

That’s taken a new spin since his fall from grace…

Interesting. Labour obviously panicking!

Or they’ve just realised there will never be another party leader from Scotland and have decided they’d rather be big fish in a smaller pond.

I’m interested in this as I was brought up in Scotland and my Mother and Sister still live there. I’ll acknowledge first of all that I haven’t read through the whole thread so what I have to say may have already been covered in which case I apologise.
The thing is even if Scotland were to get another referendum and opt out of the union as I understand it their membership of the EU wouldn’t be a given. All major changes to the EU have to be by a unanimous vote and Scotland would have to apply as others before them have had to do. Now other countries wanting to join may feel Scotland shouldn’t ‘jump the queue’ and Spain as a current member I’m pretty sure would veto any application involving Scotlands membership because of their claim to Gibraltar being constantly denied. So surely the reality is that Scotlands percieved transition from one Union to another is much less straight forward than just getting indyref2 over the line.

Aye, but in reality, we’re heading out of europe anyway, with zero hope of ever getting back in, so mibbe joining this supposed ‘queue’ isn’t as bad as it sounds.

I’d happily take the euro as well btw.

@tjagain & @Nobeerinthefridge
Ah well, I’ll just treat the trip to Fort Bill the same as Morzine, keep an eye on the exchange rates.

There is no “queue”. Countries apply for membership and accede when all of the accords are met.

The Spanish government has repeatedly said that they see no reason to veto Scotlands entry.

There is no guarantee that Scotland would get immediate entry and the more time between UK leaving and Scotland applying, the more divergence there would be.

BruceWee

Member
Or they’ve just realised there will never be another party leader from Scotland and have decided they’d rather be big fish in a smaller pond.

Regardless of their motives, whether for or against, if they move for it… Surely must mean it becomes impossible for a ref to get denied. 2/3rd of the Scottish parliament representing about 2/3rd of the population would be in favour.

Even if they made it wait til after the Scottish elections still likely to return the similar numbers. Perhaps reduced a bit but way above 50. 60% bare minimum is think, likely 70%.

It’s perfectly reasonable that Labour can support the call for a referendum without desiring independence.

Scottish labour IMO should be looking at a proper federal system for the UK along with proper constitutional reform for the UK as a whole from london labour

I do not know how anyone can complain that there is no mandate for a second referendum. Majority of votes and MSPs at Holyrood and a vast majority of MPs with around 50% of the vote ( yes add to the SNP vote the green vote and the other small pro independence parties)

So, as the years roll on after Brexit and the bed wetters are proved wrong, we don’t eat our cats and Trump signs don’t hang from every hospital…

Does that strengthen the scotsit case or weaken it?

So, as the years roll on after Brexit and the bed wetters are proved wrong, we don’t eat our cats and Trump signs don’t hang from every hospital…

Does that strengthen the scotsit case or weaken it?

Firstly lets deal with the question you really wanted to ask. Am I a massive dick?

Yes. Yes you are.

As to your second question, it depends on whether you’re talking about pure economics or the democratic deficit. If your dreams all come true and BlowJobBob turns out to be the 2nd coming, the British Empire is restored, and we all have a different supercar parked in our mile long driveway for each day of the week it still won’t make the democratic deficit go away.

75% of people in Scotland voted for parties that either wanted to remain in the EU or were promising a 2nd referendum with a remain option. The wishes of Scottish voters do not matter to the UK.

How’s that? The mandate for a new independence referendum from this election is stronger than the mandate for Johnston’s brexit. (it is 46/54 not 45/55 incidentally- everyone forgets the Greens) If one is a mandate then both are. And they both are. The way this line’s getting trotted out against that background is just crazy.

I’ve never actually tried to claim Boris has a mandate for Brexit. I think in both cases the claim of a democratic mandate is false.

I’ve never actually tried to claim Boris has a mandate for Brexit. I think in both cases the claim of a democratic mandate is false.

I agree, a general election is not the place to determine the answer to binary questions.

However, 75% of people in Scotland voted for parties saying they would stop Brexit or offer a remain option in a second referendum.

The fact that Scotland wants to remain in the EU is beyond question. The only option for that is now independence so I think asking the Scottish people if they want to remain badly enough to leave the UK is reasonable.

I do not know how anyone can complain that there is no mandate for a second referendum. Majority of votes and MSPs at Holyrood and a vast majority of MPs with around 50% of the vote ( yes add to the SNP vote the green vote and the other small pro independence parties)

Please show the evidence for pro independence parties having the majority of the votes at Holyrood. Majority of MSPs yes, but that’s purely down to the fact that the pro-union vote is split between the three main parties.

The reason people say there is no mandate for a second referendum is because the majority of Scottish voters do not want one. If that changes then yes, let’s do it, but to be honest I would rather there was a change to the voting systems at both Holyrood and Westminster to being proper PR ones.