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  • Scotland Indyref 2
  • tjagain
    Full Member

    but Scotland has 10 to 20 years of steep decline before things start to look up.

    Crystal ball gazing?

    IMO having control of the real levers of government would lead to quick improvements as we can have policy to suit the country. We would be back inside the EU quickly – thats what I see in my crystal ball

    timba
    Free Member

    We would be back inside the EU quickly – thats what I see in my crystal ball

    Why does your crystal ball think that? Some countries wait 20 years, e.g. Ukraine since 2005

    tjagain
    Full Member

    because we are compliant with almost all EU rules / accession criteria and the political will is there.

    There is no queue or waiting turns. A country applies to join and once they meet the criteria they join. there is not just political will from the Scottish side – there also is from the EU side.

    intheborders
    Free Member

    but Scotland has 10 to 20 years of steep decline before things start to look up.

    Yes, but that’s because of the UK’s chosen policy of becoming poorer (Brexit).

    Did you know that a 4% decline pa of GDP means that in 10 years we’ll be only 2/3rds of our current ‘economic size’?

    Or, if we rejoin we’ll be half as big again?

    greyspoke
    Free Member

    A country applies to join and once they meet the criteria they join.

    If all the member states agree. And if you don’t meet all the criteria they might still agree to let you in. There is a political element to it.

    andy4d
    Full Member

    Speaking as a Scot living in Ireland I dont think Scottish independence would be all plain sailing. I am not sure how easy/quick it would be to join the EU. Look at the mess brexit has made of the Irish border, I would see issues with England (our biggest trading partner). If we adopt the euro then the EU will dictate a lot of our financial decisions (look at the crash of 2009 and what that meant for ireland/Greece etc) so we would not be as independent as we think. The way I see it (in simple terms) is do we want to answer to the UK or Europe. There is no true independence nowadays.

    tjagain
    Full Member

    So Germany and france are not independent countries?

    the main differnce is in the EU we would get a say and a veto over some stuff. In the Uk we do not.

    andy4d
    Full Member

    What freedoms would independence bring and which of these freedoms would we keep 100% control over if we joined the EU/euro. Until I have clearer picture I dont know what I would vote, not that I get a say in the matter so it’s a moot point.

    tjagain
    Full Member

    The key ones are the ability to raise money on international markets and to be able to rejig the benefits / taxation system to suit scotland along with immigration policy to suit Scotland all of which would would have power over.

    andy4d
    Full Member

    Taxation is one I would question. The EU (well Germany and france as the biggest players) want a level playing field on that and keep pushing for Ireland to change its preferential corporation tax. I think if we sign up to EU/euro, as a small fish in a big pond, we would not get to dictate our terms too much and will be made to sign up on terms that suit the big hitters. Really don’t want to turn this into a brexit issue either but europe is getting more and more say as the years go by. What we think we will get now may not be what we get in 10 years time. There are other taxation issues the EU want such as water charges causing issues here.

    tjagain
    Full Member

    So why do we have widely varying income tax and benefit systems across the EU?

    andy4d
    Full Member

    as part of their bail out Greece were made to change lost of these (pensions etc). My simplistic understanding (and I am no expert) is that you can do what you want with tax as long as you don’t upset anyone in the EU. If you over spend or undercut other countries they make a new rule/step in to level it back up as they did in the bail outs/corporation tax/ water charges etc

    intheborders
    Free Member

    Speaking as a Scot living in Ireland I dont think Scottish independence would be all plain sailing. I am not sure how easy/quick it would be to join the EU. Look at the mess brexit has made of the Irish border, I would see issues with England (our biggest trading partner). If we adopt the euro then the EU will dictate a lot of our financial decisions (look at the crash of 2009 and what that meant for ireland/Greece etc) so we would not be as independent as we think. The way I see it (in simple terms) is do we want to answer to the UK or Europe. There is no true independence nowadays.

    Says a man who doesn’t live here, yet still using the word “we” – why is that?

    thegeneralist
    Full Member

    Did you know that a 4% decline pa of GDP means that in 10 years we’ll be only 2/3rds of our current ‘economic size’?

    Arithmetic fail, no?

    andy4d
    Full Member

    @intheborders am I not scottish? I was born and bred in Scotland. My family are all scottish and still there and I identify as Scottish. Just because I moved to my wife’s home of Ireland a few years ago doesn’t stop me being Scottish. My wife was still Irish when she lived in Scotland.

    What term should I be using?

    gordimhor
    Full Member

    @andy4d Of course you can use the term we. If you only moved to Ireland a few years ago it is normal to still think of yourself as Scottish.Of course you can argue over the politics sport history etc of your country. However if /when it comes to a vote it is a matter for those who live in Scotland irrespective of their place of birth.

    intheborders
    Free Member

    Arithmetic fail, no?

    Enlighten me?

    tpbiker
    Free Member

    However if /when it comes to a vote it is a matter for those who live in Scotland irrespective of their place of birth.

    Which he made quite clear in his original post..

    donald
    Free Member

    Did you know that a 4% decline pa of GDP means that in 10 years we’ll be only 2/3rds of our current ‘economic size’?

    Arithmetic fail, no?

    No. 2/3rds is correct.

    andy4d
    Full Member

    Gordimor my thoughts exactly. I don’t get say in Scottish matters as I have no vote there ( but I can uave an opinion) and i don’t get a full say in Irish matters either as I am not a citizen here. Oh well.

    kimbers
    Full Member

    regards any England/Scotland border, I can see that by the time Scotland would be ready to join the EU , the UK will have a much closer alignment with EU, I cant see the present situation lasting beyond the next election, whatever position Labour takes atm, brexits popularity with the public will only wane further.

    thegeneralist
    Full Member

    No. 2/3rds is correct.

    0.96×0.96×0.96×0.96×0.96
    ×0.96×0.69×0.96

    Typing fail!
    I did think when I looked at my answer it looked wrong, but didn’t look close enough at what I typed.

    gordimhor
    Full Member

    andy4d My apologies had’nt noticed that you said “not that I get a say in the matter so it’s a moot point.”

    gauss1777
    Free Member

    Did you know that a 4% decline pa of GDP means that in 10 years we’ll be only 2/3rds of our current ‘economic size’?

    Arithmetic fail, no?

    No. 2/3rds is correct.

    kind of. There is a huge extrapolation going on here.

    footflaps
    Full Member

    We’re expecting a 4% GDP fall every year for the next 10 years?

    First time I’ve heard of that…..

    tjagain
    Full Member

    Really? Its been all over the news

    Not a 4% absolute fall but 4% less than it would have been had we stayed in the EU.

    mefty
    Free Member

    Really? Its been all over the news

    No it hasn’t, because it is complete and utter bollocks like most of your other posts.

    tjagain
    Full Member

    Firstly it wasn’t my number. Secondly if anything its too low thirdly is there any need to be so rude especially when you are wrong?

    This source says 5%

    https://www.itv.com/news/2022-06-09/brexit-cost-the-uk-billions-in-lost-trade-and-tax-revenues-research-finds

    OBR says 4%

    The UK-based Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) states that the long-term impact of Brexit will be worse for the UK economy than Covid-19. The OBR estimates that Brexit will reduce the UK’s potential GDP by 4%

    https://www.investmentmonitor.ai/analysis/two-years-brexit-uk-eu

    tjagain
    Full Member

    It is undeniable that brexit has caused a loss to the UK gdp of around 4% maybe more and that this will continue and its compounding.

    tjagain
    Full Member

    https://www.cer.org.uk/in-the-press/brexit-%E2%80%98largely-blame%E2%80%99-%C2%A331bn-loss-uk-economy-study-finds

    etc etc

    Im sure you can find a brexity right wing source to tell you its all down to covid and ukraine but on the whole even tho its there to protect tory interests I think the OBR stating it is a decent source.

    thisisnotaspoon
    Full Member

    Where in those reports does it say it’s compounding?

    Not saying it’s not, but skim reading them they’re talking about the difference between now and a hypothetical no-voting UK in 2016. Not a 4% decline each year.

    tjagain
    Full Member

    That was just a quick search to show mefty was wrong

    Its all out there if you want. Our economy will grow around 4% a year less every year than it would have done without brexit. Thats the conclusion of folk much smarter than me

    Diffent sources show differnt numbers but its clear its not just a one off. Look at GDP growth charts and stuff

    doomanic
    Full Member

    Our economy will grow around 4% a year less every year

    That’s not what you said the first time…

    Did you know that a 4% decline pa of GDP

    Very different outcomes there.

    mefty
    Free Member

    Where in those reports does it say it’s compounding?

    They don’t.

    Graph based on real statistics .

    This is a graph based on real statistics not theoretical counterfactuals or forecasts. A 5% cost looks pretty unlikely in this context.

    tjagain
    Full Member

    Those reports don’t say its compounding no but plenty of other info that I have read makes it clear. We lose 4% a year from the GDP we would have otherwise and this continues into the foreseable future.

    As is obvious economics is not something I know much about so I cannot argue it however what I do is follow the non biased sources consensus.

    Im not getting into another pointless arguement.

    doomaniac – thats just sloppy language that can be interpreted as I intended or as you saw it

    kimbers
    Full Member

    First indy lead I’ve seen in a while

    Supreme Court effect?

    adamthekiwi
    Full Member

    Sorry, I’m very late to the party, having other things to do…

    This quote caught my eye:

    By your logic if we should allow any region of the UK that doesn’t have influence over Westminster to secede, right? How about Devon and Cornwall?

    This is what this entire argument is about, right? Government in a democracy is *supposed* to be representative. That’s the point. If you don’t have influence over your government it’s not a democracy.

    A pretty significant percentage of the Scots believe that the government they have is *not* representative, that they have no influence. Secession is a reasonable to thing to ask in that case. It would certainly also be for Devon and Cornwall (and maybe they’ll think about it if the Scots succeed!)…

    kimbers
    Full Member

    So Sunak seems to have quite cluelessy stumbled into the SNPs trap?

    I don’t get his reasoning

    BruceWee
    Full Member

    So Sunak seems to have quite cluelessy stumbled into the SNPs trap?

    There was no trap other than the one Sunak was trying to make. He spent time carefully building it and then cluelessly wandered into it with that idiotic grin of his.

    matt_outandabout
    Full Member

    So Sunak seems to have quite cluelessy stumbled into the SNPs trap?

    I don’t get his reasoning

    His reasoning? There is none.
    He just doesn’t get it. He really doesn’t. Like so many in power in England, who then speak for the UK.

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