Scotland Indyref 2

Lets not kid ourselves. The tories and the current government in particular, care not a jot for the precious “Union”. The will throw any and everyone under the bus if its politically expedient, just ask their former friends in Northern Ireland. The UK government opposed Scottish independence because losing Scotland would be a strategic nightmare.

Where would Trident go? Where would the air bases go, they aren’t located in the north of Scotland because the pilots like Cullen Skink. What happens to the GIUK gap? Britain’s play at being an middle power with global influence becomes very shaky if it loses the top third of its island.

Does anyone honestly think Johnson gives two shit about us uppity Scots? He’s only really shown much enthusiasm for the Union since he became Prime Minister, probably because he’s been taken aside and shown a map of the North Atlantic and told what the first to letters in NATO stand for.

ALL THREE major political parties essentially implode and the political landscape changes; in my opinion that’s most likely to be a good thing no matter which side of the divide you sit on – but it is difficult to imagine how the factions might divide and converge.

MY view on this is :

Labour will split into a hard left faction occupying the ground that the SSP did and the rest will join with the urban, young left of the SNP to become a left of centre social democratic grouping

the Urban left of the SNP as above will join with the rump of labour and the rural right of the SNP will join with the one nation tories to become a centre right group

the Greens will continue much as they are as will the lib dems

the right of the tory party will go off and become a hard right anti everything party similar to Westminster tories now

so from left to right we end up with:
hard left group with small influence.  A centre right group , a centrist group and a centre right group – they will share the power between them in coalition and control maybe 70 – 89% of the vote

A hard right group

And the greens who do not really sit in the left / right groupings

But surely if those that aren’t counted in the poll are unlikely to vote, that’s why they can forget about them?
Otherwise, it wouldn’t be a poll “if it were to be held tomorrow”, but rather “maybe not tomorrow but at some random point in the future where you still think you are unlikely to vote?”.

I voted no in 2014 and then voted to remain in 2016.
After the vote to leave the EU I changed my mind on Scottish Indy. Then for the past couple of years I switch between being pro and against Scottish Indy.

Look how difficult and disastrous Brexit has been. Then imagine trying to leave a political union of a few hundred years with a land border. It will be a hugely complicated struggle. Why would Westminster make any effort to provide good will in negotiations? Especially with a Tory government there?

People dream of being rid of the Tories in Scotland but the SNP is a broad church there are rabid right wingers who vote SNP as they are pro Indy, So who is to say we wouldn’t end up with a similarly right wing party in charge of Scotland? We are not that different to England.

As in my above post I believe the realignment in a post independent scotland would see the power shared between centre right and centre left – not a chance of a hard right tory party in Scotland doing anything.  Centre right as in Where Merkel stands in Germany

Look how difficult and disastrous Brexit has been. Then imagine trying to leave a political union of a few hundred years with a land border. It will be a hugely complicated struggle. Why would Westminster make any effort to provide good will in negotiations? Especially with a Tory government there?

Hmm, so you’d prefer to continue with an ever worsening UK, remembering that Brexit isn’t the strategy, it’s just the vehicle currently used to implement the strategy.

At what point will you realise that the UK of barely a decade ago has gone?

To be replaced by a country that, for example, is passing legislation to remove citizenship from any citizen or can lock up any protestor for 51 weeks on pretty much zero basis.

A thought came to me yesterday, was Teresa May’s Govt the UK version of the Weimar Republic?

Hmm, so you’d prefer to continue with an ever worsening UK

No, that’s why I swither. Ideally I would remain part of the UK get in a Labour government and have closer ties/re-join the EU. The question is how likely that is to happen, and at the moment it looks quite far away. But will the country turn things around? Yes, just depends how long.

Scot Indy isn’t a silver bullet, it will be extremely difficult and will take years to sort out. It could end up better overall but by that time the UK could also have sorted itself out.

Does anyone honestly think Johnson gives two shit about us uppity Scots?anyone other than himself or Tory donors?

FIFY

With a sensible approach and realistic deadline – not an artificial grandstanding deadline set for internal political expedience a la EU Exit – and it doesn’t have to be difficult. Many countries all over the world have borders with each other. Some even used to be the same country, or in a political union. I know that is underthink but people really do get “monkey brain” over all this.

Look to the “velvet divorce” – the almost accidental split up of Czechoslovakia.  thats the ideal

Does anyone honestly think Johnson gives two shit about us uppity Scots?

I don’t know he keeps promoting Michael Gove……

The tories and the current government in particular, care not a jot for the precious “Union”

Clearly bollox, what Facebook groups are you in to read that rubbish

Surprisingly it will be labour that struggles, they are already non committal on defending the Union,

If, as Nicola Sturgeon says, she wants an independent Scotland to be an “outward looking, welcoming nation” and “a country that celebrates diversity”, she’s got her work cut out.

I got into an argument with a dog walker the other day only for him to tell me to go back to my own country. Not sure what qualifies as ‘your own’ country but I guess I need to find out and pack my bags.
It wasn’t an isolated incident either. I got called a foreign b*tch once.
It’s my own fault. I live in Dumfries and Galloway which is a bit special.

I had the same in Edinburgh though. I committed a minor driving mistake which must have meant the other driver was held up by at least a minute. I got told to go back to Poland. Err, ok.

You’ll find these type of people in all corners of the world I know. It just’s another reason why the end of human race would be a good thing in my book.

As for independence, although I live in Scotland, I wouldn’t vote as I don’t plan to stay and I think it should be up to those who not only live here now but plan to stay here longterm. I can certainly see why an independent Scotland could be a good thing. Be interesting to see the results if and when Indyref2 happens.

Big and daft – they care about prestige and the loss of it if scotland gains independence, they care about the damage it would do to the balance of payments, they care about the nukes bases etc.  they give not one hoot about what is best for the people of scotland

If the tories gave a hoot about the people of Scotland they would not have dragged us out of the EU against our will, they would have not taxed the NHS covid bonus, they would not have done loads of stuff.  All they want scotland for is a submarine base and the grouse moors

Did you read what Johnson said about the scots?

https://www.thenational.scot/news/19046234.boris-johnson-scotland-six-quotes-prime-minister-like-forgotten/

@j4mie

But surely if those that aren’t counted in the poll are unlikely to vote, that’s why they can forget about them?

Yes – I’m not suggesting the pollsters are doing anything misleading; but the poll doesn’t say a majority of scots in favour of Indy – it says a majority of scots who would vote are in favour of indy. The net outcome might be the same – but you get a Brexit mess where 52% of the votes case were in favour of something but it was actually only about 1/3rd of the electorate. Of course you can say they gave up their right to have a say – but for indy to be a genuine success and not another brexiteers/remoaners mess they need to genuinely bring the majority of people, not just majority of votes cast with them. And those shouting that Indy now has majority of people’s support need to be very careful that they don’t misinterpret the “non voters” as don’t cares.

I tend to agree Poly – while 50% of the vote +1 is enough to pass it would be good to see an overwhelming majority – 60+ % of the vote

Scot Indy isn’t a silver bullet, it will be extremely difficult and will take years to sort out. It could end up better overall but by that time the UK could also have sorted itself out.

Yep, but it wouldn’t really matter to me if rUK sorted itself out (I’d hope they do, I’m not for a minute anti-English), we’d be in charge of our own affairs, which to me is the whole point, I’m not a ‘The UK is broken’ type, I just feel we’d be happier and healthier as a nation on our own.

I don’t really care about the financials (although Cameron and Gideon admitted last time this wasn’t even a question, Scotland was financially viable), all the barriers people put forward in arguments, trade, borders, EU, whatever, are not insurmountable, sure it won’t be easy, but IMHO it’ll be worth it.

For me my preferred solution would be proper electoral reform that must be proportional UK wide and some sort of federal solution for the union – a union of 4 equals ( I know this is hard to find)  too much of my life has been blighted by tory governments with big majorities on a minority of the vote allowing such nonsense as brexit and I see no signs of the pact needed between the non tory parties to do this

however – I see no chance of this in my lifetime.  I see a good chance for scots independence and I am certain a independent scotland would have a better government than we get from the UK so for purely pragmatic reasons I support scots independence

@tjagain – lets be 100% clear I am not a tory, but your argument loses credibility when you write stuff like this:

If the tories gave a hoot about the people of Scotland …they would have not taxed the NHS covid bonus,

You can’t change taxation policy because “we like these people” or “they do valuable work for society” or whatever argument is made for why an NHS worker paid a bonus should not be taxed but a private employee (or any other public servant) should.

they would not have done loads of stuff. All they want scotland for is a submarine base and the grouse moors

I suspect the list is quite a bit bigger than that. Oil, renewables & trees (suddenly UK’s carbon footprint is not so attractive without Scotland), fishing rights to negotiate with EU. Probably some of the radar infrastructure and fighter jet “strength” against Russia…

Did you read what Johnson said about the scots?

Boris is not the tories. Don’t think that he’s actually in control nor that once he goes their interest in the Union will change.

If the tories gave a hoot about the people of Scotland they would not have dragged us out of the EU against our will

They dragged 48% of the population of the UK out against their will. On this subject they didn’t treat Scotland any differently to the rest of the UK. Doesn’t sound like exceptionalism.

Poly – please stop referring to Johnson as “boris”  It plays his game and makes him seem less dangerous

He may not be the tories but he is their leader and his attitude is indicative

A TORY peer branded Scotland a country of ­subsidy junkies who beat up English students yesterday.

Lord Flight ranted: “The English have had enough of ­subsidising Scotland, only to be treated with discourtesy.”

Conservative Councillor Richard Willis has tweeted a plea for Scotland to vote for independence “so we can be rid of your whining and whinging (sic) and leave the rest of the UK happier and wealthier!”.

Etc etc etc

Look how difficult and disastrous Brexit has been. Then imagine trying to leave a political union of a few hundred years with a land border. It will be a hugely complicated struggle. Why would Westminster make any effort to provide good will in negotiations? Especially with a Tory government there?

In some ways the land border in Scotland is actually easier to manage than the one in NI though. Whilst in an ideal world for both Scotland and England you’d have no physical border controls, a Sweden/Norway or Switzerland/France border would not be the end of the world. In NI that is not possible under the Good Friday agreement. Then add in negotiations around military bases, the share of the UK debt mountain, etc and if BOTH sides are willing to cooperate you get a deal. I’m far more worried about Scottish negotiators setting stupid red lines like “No nukes on our soil from next week” than London ones.

People dream of being rid of the Tories in Scotland but the SNP is a broad church there are rabid right wingers who vote SNP as they are pro Indy, So who is to say we wouldn’t end up with a similarly right wing party in charge of Scotland?

Then that will be because the people of Scotland voted for that and chose to have it, and will then a few years later have the option to change that. The argument for Indy is not “never have a Tory in charge” its “Scotland should decide whats best for Scotland”.

We are not that different to England.

I’m actually pretty convinced that we are. I mean nowhere in the Western world is “that” different to England but I’m pretty sure we are not only different but diverging…

So who is to say we wouldn’t end up with a similarly right wing party in charge of Scotland?

It could happen as poly says but given that the tories get 20% of the vote here and Scotland has not had the tories as the largest share of the vote since the 50s I consider it unlikely

I’m pretty sure we are not only different but diverging

Its the divergence thats the real issue – while England moves further to the right scotland moves further to the left.  the disconnect is huge and getting bigger

Look at the response to the refugeee removals in Scotland compared to the RNLI in hastings

I wonder what would happen to the tory party here in Scotland if we gained independence 😕 Obviously there couldn’t be a tory party as we have now, as they default to Westminster for their instructions and basis of policy.

Would there have to be new parties formed, but even then a tory-esque party could still be looking towards London and the English party for their policy ideas.

The various branch offices that run the Scottish version of the political parties would actually become separate entities, although I believe the Scottish Greens are already fully separated form their compatriots down south.

Short term you would still have the same parties. Longer term who knows.

I think there’s still a massive job to do in parts of Scotland for those wanting independence. Mention the SNP or Nicola Sturgeon down here and you will likely be met by vitriol like you’ve never witnessed before. I don’t share their views btw.

I also think they’ve got an image problem in some parts of Scotland. I told a nice neighbour about being told to go back to my own country. He immediately said the man must be SNP. Now I’ve never thought of the modern SNP as nationalist in a BNP kind of way but it kind of seems that some people think like that. As was said above the SNP is a broad church. Obviously, there are many more people in the more-likely-to-be-pro-independence cities so the numbers might be there for independence. Dunno.

Poly – please stop referring to Johnson as “boris” It plays his game and makes him seem less dangerous

OMG TJ – you really have lost it!

It’s my own fault. I live in Dumfries and Galloway which is a bit special.

Yes, it’s a Tory voting area.

Dyna ti

I suspect as a ove the realignment post independence would lead to the left of the tories and the right of the snp forming a centre right group and the remaining tories disappear into far right ukip land and obscurity

The centre right could hold or shate power

It’s my own fault. I live in Dumfries and Galloway which is a bit special.

Yes, it’s a Tory voting area.

change can happen, I now live in what was a safe Tory seat (Ayr, Alloway), it returned SNP at the last vote. I’m taking the victory, it must have been me that tipped it!

@intheborders
You’re right, it is. Their vote still counts as much as anyone elses when it comes to Indyref2 though.
Not sure much of Edinburgh votes Tory.

Also, and I did add this as an edit, whilst you might think of the Tories as xenophobic, at least one D&G resident thinks that of the SNP. Just shows that the divisions run deep and whether the numbers are there for independence or not, or whether they will be, I dunno and in reality nor does anyone else.

I’m actually pretty convinced that we are.

Oof.

You need to have a think about how media works and how you get your information.

MOlgrips – please do not tell people who live in Scotland what the conditions are.  Its pretty arrogant of you to think yo know more about the politics of scotland than residents.  I know i do not know enough about Welsh politics to comment on them with any confidence

UKIP at its highest got 7% of the vote here.  20 odd % in england.  tories here get 20% of the vote compared to 40% in England  ( and that holds true even pre the rise of the SNP) we voted for an explicitly tax raising government, no one dare mention that south of the border.

60+ % remain average across scotland with not one region voting leave in the brexit referendum

tories have not had the largest share of the vote here in 65 years.  tory vote went down IIRC at the last GE

Politically we are different and we are diverging

You think about where you get your information from – you will ONLY see the unionist perspective.

Its pretty arrogant of you to think yo know more about the politics of scotland than residents

Yeah that’s not what I said at all. But never mind. I’m not debating this with you.

But as a general point, on this subject, there is no such thing as ‘the English’ or ‘the Scottish’ politically.

And as a final point – Scottish websites are accessible from all over the UK and indeed the world, I assume you’re aware of this?

And there you go again telling us that we are wrong.  Politically there is a significant difference and its getting bigger.  Its completely obvious when you live here

And there you go again telling us that we are wrong.

No, stop being a bell end. My initial point was telling people to consider where they get their information from, which is ironically the same thing you just told me.

Its completely obvious when you live here

Completely obvious depending on which bit of Scotland you live in and who you converse with.

Molgrips – that was precisely my point.  You telling us you know better and to check your sources of info so I merely reflected that back at you – where do you get your info from that you can deny this?

the difference is obvious in voting patterns.  thats hard evidence

I’m English but half Scottish by blood and have lots of family there. I work in Scotland quite a lot.

I’m often struck by how much more caring the Scots are of people and society in general. They are much warmer folk than the English. I can well understand the widespread abhorrence of Westminster Tories.

The SNP seem to get away with piss-poor performance; I think people turn a blind eye because they want independence (& the SNP is the only plausible game in town).

Whatever the Scotts decide re: Indy is fine by me. They should get the opportunity to vote in a referendum again I think.