Scotland Indyref 2

Highlands & Islands Both Votes SNP
Mid Scotland & Fife SNP 1 Green2
South Scotland Both Votes SNP
Glasgow SNP 1 Green 2
West SNP 1 Green 2
North East SNP 1 Green 2
Central SNP 1 Green 2
Edinburgh SNP 1 Green 2

Edinburgh… Edinburgh… bloody hell its that sort of misnomer takeover that encourages separatism. I think you meant Lothians.

I don’t think most scots give a hoot about trident tbh. 😆 I’d rent out the land and sea access, job jobbied.

I suspect if we weren’t paying for (our share of) it and in fact it was clearly contributing there would be quite a bit of tolerance for it. Right up until one of “their” subs sinks one of “our” trawlers and kills half a dozen fishermen. Then obviously it would be wrong, but the potential to kill 10 million times more of an enemy is all ok.

lazy copy and paste poly

the bombs are not stored or loaded in Scotland now I thought – all in the US and our subs go over there to load them

So you think we pop over to Kings Bay every time we complete a patrol and need to do maintenance? 🤔

Depot is at Coulport, IIRC the only interaction the US has with them is maintenance of the delivery vehicle (the actual missile) whilst we maintain our warheads.

Many RN people who get based there loathe it because it’s such a rubbish place for their families to live and work.

That’ll be why so many stick about after they leave the service I suppose?

An alternative would be to try to base Trident at King’s Bay in Georgia, in the US, where Britain’s nuclear submarines go to pick up missiles from a common pool,

From the article in the grauniad

the bombs are not stored or loaded in Scotland now I thought – all in the US and our subs go over there to load them

The warheads are maintained/stored at Aldermaston (inconveniently for those who try claiming the government wouldnt have nukes near London) and also stored/loaded at the Clyde base.
Its the missile bodies which are done in the US.

Ta folks

dissonance – I have heard that exact argument used by politicians for not having the subs down south – all locations too close to urban areas

Yes. Exactly what I just said. The MISSILES are maintained at King’s Bay. The warheads are entirely ours and removed before the missiles are returned to the US. The missiles and warheads are removed between patrols and stored at Coulport.

Anyway, I see Galloway has jumped on the “Freedom of speech – repeal the Hate Crime Bill” bandwagon. Tories have also moved to a rather fetching maroon and orange colour scheme 🧐

I have heard that exact argument used by politicians for not having the subs down south – all locations too close to urban areas

Often used but its wrong. Aldermaston isnt in an overly great position and Devonport is rather close to a large urban area. If you look at the historical sites for nuclear missiles and nuclear equipped bombers its pretty obvious that at the time it was selected the concern about urban areas wasnt a major issue regardless of which urban area you are talking about.
The reason that part of Scotland was chosen was because it provided both quick and also hard to track access to the north Atlantic area where they sail in circles.
Other locations would have taken longer to deploy and also be easier for Russian subs to hang around in the hope of following them.

“Devonport is rather close to a large urban area” – which is why its unsuitable according to politicians

the reason that the nukes are so close to Glasgow is the usual “scots don’t count”. Plenty of other deep water sea lochs further north

Tories have also moved to a rather fetching maroon and orange colour

Scottish tories have been distinctly orange for quite some time now. Murdo and Adam in particular.

which is why its unsuitable according to politicians

No its because its not well placed to sneak boats out of. There are however multiple nuclear subs, including some due for decommissioning, located there but its not well position for missile subs.

the reason that the nukes are so close to Glasgow is the usual “scots don’t count”.

If you want to feel a victim perhaps but you would need to explain why its a special case considering just how many nuclear sites were littered around London. Why is Aldermaston located where it is or Porton Down for that question?

the reason that the nukes are so close to Glasgow is the usual “scots don’t count”. Plenty of other deep water sea lochs further north

That’s purely your prejudices at work. Logistically, how do you propose those lochs are accessed via land bearing in mind the method of transporting warheads to and from Aldermaston? (those gates on the roundabouts and the road from the A82 to Faslane aren’t there by accident). You also have the entire logistical nightmare of relocating the magazines at Glen Devon, oil terminal, staff, civilian contractors, support industry etc. all of whom are in the surrounding area. For what? If a warhead went off it wouldn’t make much difference where it was, the fallout from a ground based explosion would see to that. If you’re concerned about the base being targeted then the central belt is going anyway if we’re at full scale war.

Guys – there is an awful lot around this but yes faslane was a good choice for some reasons but the idea that its proximity to Glasgow is irrelevant but other possible locations in rUK are too close to population centres says a lot. No way would Faslane be chosen nowadays

dissonance – The boats do not “sneak out” of Faslane – they go on the surface for miles! I have seen them many times. Everyone knows when they go in and out

come independence those subs have to go and everyone knows it. rUK play hardball and they have to go tomorrow. rUK are reasonable and then a lease for a limited time could be done

edit – my position is no more about my predjudices than yours is – its merely seeing things from a different angle.

I thought the main reason for Faslane was the railway access orginally

You wouldn’t move to a different highland loch now – but they could have been put there orginally. But they are going to have to move bases thats for sure.

Ease of defence, very deep water close to shore, huge swathes of cheap land, closer to the icecap and reasonable proximity to transport and population all figured in choosing CSB (and Holy Loch for the yanks) over the south of England or remoter sea lochs further north.

tjagain

come independence those subs have to go and everyone knows it.

Mibbes aye, mibbes naw. Doubt it’s a fore gone conclusion. opinion on trident is 50:50.

Mibbes aye, mibbes naw. Doubt it’s a fore gone conclusion. opinion on trident is 50:50.

I’m not sure its 50:50 – but its definitely not as “anti” as TJ thinks; the reality is like lots of politics only really strong views get aired. IIRC the new trident will last till something like 2042. IF there was indy ref 2 in 2022 (ambitious) and IF it was for independence (far from certain) and IF they negotiate sensibly on all sides – you’d be 2026 before independence at least. A 15 year lease to last the lifetime would not be ridiculous. Nor would it be ridiculous to extend that lease for a non-nuclear NATO sub fleet beyond that.

Given the SNP and the greens will be in power and both of them have it as hard policy – and Scotlands electorate support being nuclear free then I think it highly unlikely a lease would be granted – unless rUK actually does go for a co operative separation which given their antics over brexit seems highly unlikely

https://www.snp.org/tridentfacts/

tjagain
Full Member
Given the SNP and the greens will be in power and both of them have it as hard policy

In an independent scotland? Bit of a leap to assume that.

The natural government in Scotland is a SNP/Labour coalition imo. And who knows where either of those 2 parties will land in the post independence political landscape either, nor what their policies would be.

I’d have a guess if there’s money to be made positions will soften. Easy enough to be hardline on something you can’t really effect the out come of. (which incidently, is why the chat about UBI at the minute smells a bit off to me too, pure electioneering that.)

longer term post independence yes I expect the snp to fracture and a big realignment in Scottish politics. – but that is well into the future. the government negotiating independence will be snp with maybe green support. the SNP and greens have it as hard policy that trident must go. Its a key issue.

I honestly don’t think it’s a key issue at all.

First day of negotiations after Scotland votes for Independence.

RUK “We have calculated your share of the national debt as…”

Wee Nicky “Weird; that’s EXACTLY the same as the rental on Faslane for the next xx years!”

Or similar, not so much that they are there, although I would like them away to…It is more the waste of money replacing the whole vanity project in the next few years.

Great facts there @tjagain with excellent sources cited (that bastion of investigative journalism excellence, the Daily Record). Fact 1 falls flat on its face as the actual facts in the story say nothing about increasing stockpiles but rather each boat will be sailing with more warheads on board. That’s akin to you owning 20 spanners and regularly leaving home with 10 until one day you decide to take 15. You haven’t increased the amount of spanners you own, just the amount you leave the house with.

Honestly, if that’s the kind of easily refuted stuff people lap up unquestioningly no wonder politics is where it is. I bet you believe we need the permission of the US to fire them too.

Full disclosure, I don’t support nuclear weapons nor want them based in the country. That doesn’t mean I’ll just accept any old shite that fits my viewpoint with little more than a cursory glance. Frankly whoever allowed that shite to get posted needs a boot up the arse as it just makes them look like stupid kids who can’t do basic fact checking. Referencing the Record ffs…

One of the reasons I enjoy this debate squirrelking – all info is good and i am well aware humbug wont get past you 🙂

I wasn’t claiming any veracity for the SNP page – only that it shows how hard their position is on it all

duckman
Full Member

First day of negotiations after Scotland votes for Independence.

Maybe the negotiations should be before the indyvote. So we know what we are voting for?

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-to-hold-a-credible-referendum-on-scottish-independence

The Spectator has more neck than a giraffe using the word credible.Good story though, pity it didn’t apply to their beloved brexit eh?

I think it highly unlikely a lease would be granted – unless rUK actually does go for a co operative separation which given their antics over brexit seems highly unlikely

Obviously there is no lease without mutual cooperation. Its a bit of a superlative to state that. Somewhere in a parallel universe someone from a “rUK” perspective just wrote: “unless iS agree to trident staying there’s no way we would have a co-operative separation. We’ve learned from Brexit that we can define our rules of engagement clearly.”

I think its probably wrong to assume that a conservative government would be acting in the best interest of the rUK population though – more likely to be concerned about the various party members / donors with significant property / land interests in Scotland.

irc

Maybe the negotiations should be before the indyvote.

how’s that going to work when they refuse even the principle of the democratic right in the first place? 😆

It would have to be two votes first on the principle of independence and the second on the deal available. Makes no real sense tho.

You’ll be expecting them to have worked out the economic argument for Scexit and how the rUK border will work, and the currency they will be going into the EU with before they decide to campaign to hold the vote next…….

Stop being unreasonable.

The Spectator has more neck than a giraffe using the word credible.

It’s all those Scots that write for it that are to blame

A double ref makes perfect sense

But the hypocrisy of the brexiteers (including the spectator) who campaigned so hard not to have one for brexit makes it very unlikely

It would also be a good vote winner for Sturgeon

Big and daft – as you know it was last time and will be this time

Kimbers – the problem with a double ref is what happens if the first one is yes and the second no? Renegotiate? Drop the whole thing?

If you had a further referendum on the deal then that just gives the Westminster government a second bite of the cherry to scupper the whole thing.

The scenario of the Scottish government going down to London asking for a good deal so the people of Scotland can approve it isn’t a strong negotiating position.

Big and daft – as you know it was last time and will be this time

If the economics are so marginal that they have to be redone at the last moment to be “up to date” they probably aren’t going to be that convincing

The rUK border issue has been clarified by the UK-EU trade agreement, no reason why it can’t be published

As I understand it Ms Sturgeon’s policy is that a vote for independence is a vote for EU re-entry, so the currency question should have been worked out. It’s not exactly a new issue other than the £ is no longer a currency of a EU member.

If there was a coherent plan that stood up you can bet it would be out there now as a vote winner. The reason it isn’t is that the more time there is to scrutinize it the more time people get to think about what it really means for them and then the doubts creep in….

Salmond less popular than Johnson!

Ross is in trouble isn’t he

UK (Scotland), Lord Ashcroft poll:

Net approval

Sturgeon (SNP-G/EFA): +22
Sarwar (LAB-S&D): +2
Starmer (LAB-S&D): -9
Slater (SGP-G/EFA): -14
Rennie (LDEM-RE): -16
Ross (CON-ECR): -28
Johnson (CON-ECR): -44
Salmond (ALBA-*): -72

Fieldwork: 7-19 April
Sample size: 2,017#SP21 pic.twitter.com/BZ1tAVA7yA

— Europe Elects (@EuropeElects) April 28, 2021

big_n_daft
Free Member

If there was a coherent plan that stood up you can bet it would be out there now

Why would they start campaigning for IS just now? This campaign is about Scotland’s right to choose. Whether independence is right or wrong is irrelevant and a different campaign.

https://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/international/patronising-english-arseholes-wondering-why-scotland-wants-independence-20160726111377

The day Scotland “gains” independence to join EU, is also the day EU disintegrates with the start of internal conflicts in some of the EU states. I bet that plays directly into the EU bureaucrats hands because a “disintegrated” smaller EU member states (many will want to gain independence) means the EU bureaucrats can use that to their advantage by establishing themselves as the overall lord of all smaller states. The dream of EU superstates comes into reality.

Sturgeon is a fish in the hurry but time is not really on her side. At 50 she needs to get the job done in order to enjoy her fruit of her “new found” Scottish dynasty status. She has another 15 years before the sunset starts on her.

What the British government can do is to simply say No as often as possible then let them be. Play softball with Sturgeon. Be an eel with the fish. What can she do? Take up arms? Invade Newcastle? Bleed the British tax payers dry? Encourage EU to sabotage the British govt?

Who called up the Troll, shouldn’t he be still telling us how wonderful Brexit is going to be for his adopted country?