Scotland Indyref 2

Oh, yes please.

That is just the right sort of crisis to trigger the Scottish govt using the Claim of Right to announce independence.

Boris is clueless

But the spectator crew: unionist Scots, Andrew Neil, fraser Nelson (they’ve almost single handedly driven the salmonsd hooha in the media) & the pol eds wife is Johnsons press secretary & far more capable at PR than cummings etc

They’re running the show now & won’t be stupid enough to hand the SNP that kind of bonus

Crown Office led by a Holyrood executive cabinet member restricting the Scottish Parliament from publishing information that is already legally in the public domain.

is it already in the public domain? are you sure its legally there? the rules around jigsaw identification are rather complex. If Mr Salmond and his legal team, are convinced that publishing the content of those documents is not contempt of court – then I’m sure he’s quite capable of putting it online himself. If the Spectator or any other media are also sure its not contempt to publish it they could also make the content even more public than it ever would be on a Scottish government website. Of course, if they were wrong Lady Dorian might be rather unimpressed.

If the Spectator or any other media are also sure its not contempt to publish it they could also make the content even more public than it ever would be on a Scottish government website.

They did by publishing it in full bar one redaction to avoid identifying a individual.

They then went and got confirmation from Lady Dorian that publication was legal. The Scottish Parliament published it for nearly a day. The Crown Office/SNP government insisted on redactions. These were redactions about the FM breaking the ministerial code. As such redactions would take those issues outside the remit of the two inquiries why do you think they were ordered?

So it’s out there, legally, the redactions demanded were because….. The Scottish Parliament rolled over and complied because……

ps – I have read the reports on the exchange with the deputy speaker and Liam fox and the deputy speaker does not say what you claimed

Yet you fail to include a Hansard quote

What did she say?

Crown office decisions are politically independent.

That info is NOT in the public domain. Its subject to a court order from a judge that it NOT be published as the complainants could be identified from it. So what the Crown office did was enforce the trial judges decision. correct in law. Now another judge could order the publication but the crown office did the right thing

No the committee can and did publish on the Scottish Parliament website a less redacted version. The Crown Office redactions did not relate to jigsaw identification but accusations the the FM broke the ministerial code.

Report on the hearing on and revised judgement by Lady Dorian here

http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/alex-salmond-inquiry-high-court-publishes-judges-full-reasons-relation-spectator-court-case-3136795%3famp

Example of redactions here (yes it’s the daily mail)

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9289975/Alex-Salmond-forced-WITHDRAW-bombshell-evidence.html

You really should invoke hattersleys rule. When in a hole stop digging. You really are looking foolish with your fact free rants

They are better than they were squirrelking but somewhat anti nuclear 🙂

I don’t really care about the nuclear issue, realistically that ships long sailed for this generation. But the local that tried to run for Westminster last time is a proper eejit, nasty git as well.

It’s the default position

In regard to the status the EU affords iS on day one, it’s not in the EU (yet or maybe never), it’s not a party to the rUK-EU agreement, it therefore has the status in that agreement of “third country” in regard to rules of origin. I would argue that is the default position

So it’s opinion then. Why pretend otherwise? Still, got there after a load of waffle…

I think it was on this thread someone asking who to vote for to make the most pro independence MSPs

If you are in Highlands and Islands yo have Andy Wightman who used to be a green now standing as an independent. land reform and raptor protection are two of his key issues. Dunno why he left the greens tho

https://www.holyrood.com/news/view,andy-wightman-resigns-from-scottish-greens

Sounds strangely familiar, the lack of acknowledgement towards his reported concerns from the Greens just serves to confirm them IMO.

Dunno why he left the greens tho

Finger on the pulse of Scottish politics there TJ. I thought you were a bit of a Green.

After 2 years of Yes leads

2 polls this weekend show No with a lead

Scottish independence voting intention:

Yes: 46% (-3)
No: 47% (+3)

Excl. undecideds:
Yes: 49% (-4)
No: 51% (+4)

via @Panelbase, 03 – 05 Mar
Chgs. w/ Jan 2021https://t.co/sSlDbvSHYg

— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) March 7, 2021

There will be a few sighs of relief in SNP HQ about that.

Tbh that’s just noise, support for indy is still about 50%, in spite of shambles at holyrood

Indy is happening now whether snp wanted it or not

I’d guess that could be a vaccine bounce? Maybe a very small response to EU protectionism re the Australian doses.

Sarwar sacks a candidate for daring to discuss possible labour support for a second referendum

He really is going full unionist old skool labour isn’t he.

I really despair as i so want to see a labour party in Scotland that works for the people of Scotland but they seem to be disappearing down a plughole.

Tbh that’s just noise, support for indy is still about 50%, in spite of shambles at holyrood

Alternatively……

Support for indy is only at 50%, in spite of the shambles at Westminster.

Alternatively……

Support for indy is only at 50%, in spite of the shambles at Westminster.

Yep, but have you actually attempted to have a decent conversation with an average voter?

He really is going full unionist old skool labour isn’t he.

He’s probably channelling Keir Hardie, the Scot who helped form the labour party and who was a MP for both English and Welsh constituencies

Or is he now disowned as no longer one of the “people of Scotland”

Sarwar sacks a candidate for daring to discuss possible labour support for a second referendum

didn’t see anything on the BBC about that oddly enough. What have they got to be scared off giving another referendum.

poah – its basically tribalism. labour in Scotland have considered the SNP the enemy since losing power to the extent of anti snp pacts with the tories. So anything the SNP want MUST be opposed even if it leads to electoral suicide

also london labour are scared of being caught in “relying on the SNP” type nonsense in unionist / right wing media

Yep, but have you actually attempted to have a decent conversation with an average voter?

Define “average voter” for me and I’ll let you know. I’d have thought it more the job of the people doing opinion polls to seek out a broad cross-section of society (I’m not sure there really is such a thing as an “average voter”).

And I’m maybe being thick, but not sure how it relates to the point I raised?

I think it’s a mistake to assume that people will react to the UKs handling of the pandemic in a way that seems obvious to you.

also london labour are scared of being caught in “relying on the SNP” type nonsense in unionist / right wing media

Or they have realised that if your majority depends on a separatist party, when you separate you don’t have a majority….

It’s beyond me how the party of Keir Hardie could ever be anything but for the Union

its basically tribalism

Whereas the SNP are just “civic”

Maybe its the SNP weakening poll numbers

but Im surprised Johnson has fallen into this trap

BREAKING: Boris Johnson will make clear on Sunday that he will not grant a second Scottish independence referendum, even if the SNP wins a majority at May’s Holyrood elections

Via @Telegraph pic.twitter.com/eM4SFTqvky

— Politics For All (@PoliticsForAlI) March 11, 2021

I’m fairly confident that even if the SNP win a majority our lovely Tory government will ignore the irony and reject their mandate for another referendum as less than half the Scottish electorate voted for the SNP.

thats 3 pts on the SNP vote just there!

I’m fairly confident that even if the SNP win a majority our lovely Tory government will ignore the irony and reject their mandate for another referendum as less than half the Scottish electorate voted for the SNP.

Leaving aside the irony bit about the last Westminster election, what happens in the scenario where the SNP win the majority of seats, but (because the No vote is split over multiple parties) the majority of voters vote for parties opposed to holding a second referendum? That’s the scenario we had in the last Westminster election.

In that case by refusing a second referendum Westminster will be doing what the SNP demand, ie listening to the wishes of the Scottish people. So everyone should be happy.

Leaving aside the irony bit about the last Westminster election, what happens in the scenario where the SNP win the majority of seats, but (because the No vote is split over multiple parties) the majority of voters vote for parties opposed to holding a second referendum? That’s the scenario we had in the last Westminster election.

Surely PR makes that much less likely to happen

Boris will listen to the people, the people who put him in power, the northern gammons and the southern middle Englanders and they won’t want them uppity Scots leaving. Its got nothing to do with votes north of the border, there’s nothing the Scots can do to compel Boris to authorise a referendum.

Surely PR makes that much less likely to happen

Possibly. However we don’t have full PR (something I’d like to see at both Holyrood and Westminster). The Scottish system was in theory designed to prevent any one party gaining an overall majority (a good thing in any parliament I reckon). However what wasn’t factored in was one issue dominating an entire election.

, what happens in the scenario where the SNP win the majority of seats, but (because the No vote is split over multiple parties) the majority of voters vote for parties opposed to holding a second referendum? That’s the scenario we had in the last Westminster election.

Cannot happen under the electoral system used – deliberately set up that way to try to prevent the SNP getting into power

they will mop up the constituency seats but as a result will get very few on the top up lists which are there to ensure proportionality Its not totally proportionate but its close. You need 50% of the vote to get a majority

there’s nothing the Scots can do to compel Boris to authorise a referendum.

No but there are a number of routes that do not need his permission.

No but there are a number of routes that do not need his permission.

All ruled out by Nicola Sturgeon.

they will mop up the constituency seats but as a result will get very few on the top up lists which are there to ensure proportionality Its not totally proportionate but its close. You need 50% of the vote to get a majority

So how do we know if the bulk of voters are for or against a second referendum?

All ruled out by Nicola Sturgeon.

And which, unless verified as 100% legal, would be boycotted by a very substantial percentage of the electorate.

So how do we know if the bulk of voters are for or against a second referendum?

You don’t, but you don’t need to. If a government is elected with a referendum in its manifesto then it has the right to introduce legislation to carry out that referendum. That’s not specific to Holyrood, that’s just how representative democracies work. However, as I wrote above, Sturgeon seems to be sticking to her guns about requiring the S.30. Now, that might change when the Keatings case comes up again. It was previously dismissed as being too hypothetical but that situation might just have changed with Boris’s latest pronouncement.

The other option is that the Scottish Government legislate for a referendum and say to Boris “see you in court”, i.e. leave it to the UK Government to prove it is illegal.

If a government is elected with a referendum in its manifesto then it has the right to introduce legislation to carry out that referendum. That’s not specific to Holyrood, that’s just how representative democracies work.

Indeed, but by using the same reasoning the government of the UK as a whole was elected with a mandate to oppose a second referendum. Equally democratic.

The other option is that the Scottish Government legislate for a referendum and say to Boris “see you in court”, i.e. leave it to the UK Government to prove it is illegal

That presupposes the Scottish legislation is legal. They could press ahead with a referendum anyway, but as I said unless they can prove it it’s a legal one the it will be boycotted by a large part of the population. And though independence hardliners will say a victory in a referendum with a small turnout is still a mandate, the reality of politics means there’s no way Scotland will effectively secede on such a tiny turnout.

Scotroutes – I know you have fallen out with Sturgeon but that simply is not true. See “the roadmap”

kennyp – there is a difference between unauthorised and illegal but I agree a widespread boycott would kill it