Scotland Indyref 2

Because this is what our English ‘cousins’ have voted for, written in 2012 and lots of accurate foresight including this classic:

I can safely bet you haven’t read the book, nor have 99.99% of the electorate

So other than a review by a former labour MP how do you know what’s in it?

I’m in the 99.99% btw

I’m certainly more interested in the list vote this time around. In many cases an alternative “Indy” party would be a good choice. It could reduce the number of Unionist MSPs and might have the effect of holding the SNPs feet to the fire regarding progress towards independence.

Its been pretty pointless voting snp in the list vote and even more this time. they are unlikely to get any list MSPs as the hog the constituency ones 😉 I have always been ” second vote green” for this very reason. they get representation via the list and every list vote for them makes a huge difference as they are not much above the thresholds for representation – so a few thousand more votes can lead to a lot more greens

I think and hope the greens will be the major beneficiaries of the collapse in the unionist party votes. But i do hope they are learning the lessons and become a little more professional

I’m in the 99.99% btw

And I’m not.

In a previous life I worked (contractor) in a Govt dept and spent time in Central Govt – and radicals have always interested me 🙂

He really is a gift to Sturgeon

Stay at home. Protect the NHS. Save lives. pic.twitter.com/svLsfUDnIU

— The SNP (@theSNP) January 28, 2021

Hang on. What’s Johnson doing getting out of a grey plane when he spent all that cash having one painted red white and blue?

The photo op in the testing centre really annoys me – there’s absolutely no constructive reason for him & his entourage to be there, it’s infuriating…

Finish the sentence competition:

Aw man. @ClassicFM's news team asked Glaswegian's how they felt about Boris Johnson travelling to Scotland to campaign for the Union. The edit is hilarious. pic.twitter.com/8B7I3Skr0x

— Ged Fitzsimmons (@gedfitzfilm) January 28, 2021

Hang on. What’s Johnson doing getting out of a grey plane when he spent all that cash having one painted red white and blue?

Cos he’s toxic.

Carry on Boris, you’re doing a grand job to further the independence vote

Boris Johnson says independence debate ‘irrelevant’ to most Scots

Gaun yerself Bawjaws

Honestly he’s the gift that keeps on giving. It speaks to the man’s deep seated narcissism that he thinks anyone still believes him.

Honestly they just can’t help themselves. The right honourable representative of.the 18th century lets us know where we belong.

https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/jacob-rees-mogg-labels-nicola-sturgeon-moanalot-and-scottish-government-hopeless-3115729

Rather sensational own goal by SNP leadership removing Joanna Cherry from the SNP front bench at Westminster. She was by far their best asset there. Presumably her long standing position as a Salmond ally, her vocal advocacy for women’s rights above trans rights and her criticism of the slow path to Indy were too much for the Murrell’s. She may get her revenge in the long run….

The SNP has been in power for a long time. The infighting that always goes on behind the scenes has now bubbled out into the public area. Getting rid of good politicians is just another step. As the party leadership tries to suppress the any criticism of what they are doing.

A cynic might think that the push to raise the profile of Indyref 2 has less to do with it being wanted and more to do with trying to create news to deflect from the infighting. Perhaps also to deflect from the news about the slow rollout of the vaccine compared to the other parts of the UK.

If you look at political leaders, not many survive at the top for 10 years, you sense a change is coming and then we shall really see the knives out as the factions start to gain control.

(see Conservatives post Thatcher, Labour post Brown Liberals post anyone of their leaders. Even the Greens had their public squabbles.)

The SNP has been in power for a long time. The infighting that always goes on behind the scenes has now bubbled out into the public area. Getting rid of good politicians is just another step. As the party leadership tries to suppress the any criticism of what they are doing.

A cynic might think that the push to raise the profile of Indyref 2 has less to do with it being wanted and more to do with trying to create news to deflect from the infighting. Perhaps also to deflect from the news about the slow rollout of the vaccine compared to the other parts of the UK.

I’m not sure you can accuse the SNP leadership of doing that.

If you have a cause to fight, a desire to change the world, then it makes most sense to do that within politics and it’s then natural to want to be in a position to do something about it – ideally in Government. By their very success, the SNP are attracting all sorts of folk who actually have very little desire for independence, their priorities lie elsewhere. To many, that looks like the SNP are no longer really fighting for independence at all. The argument is thay “well, vote SNP, get independence and then we’ll vote for the folk/party we really want” (it’s been repeated several times in this very thread). Well, these folk are equally able to recognise that’s what would happen and many would therefore be happy to never have a referendum, to actually have a minority SNP government or at least a range of seats in Holyrood that would be less than a total mandate for a referendum.

Nicola Sturgeon now looks like a totally weak leader. She has been unable to stop the infighting and, indeed, has been pouring fuel on the fire herself. This wasn’t a time to be “taking sides” it was a time for a calm head. As the two inquiries into the SCotGov/Sturgeon handling of the Salmond affair drag on, her position looks increasingly murky. Peter Murrell now refusing to attend the current inquiry doesn’t look good either.

sadmadalan

A cynic might think that the push to raise the profile of Indyref 2 has less to do with it being wanted

why? do you think the last 10 or 15 polls have been manipulated?

sadmadalan
Full Member
Perhaps also to deflect from the news about the slow rollout of the vaccine compared to the other parts of the UK.

It’s no particularly slow, it’s a wee bit behind at the minute, long way to go though.

It’s no particularly slow, it’s a wee bit behind at the minute, long way to go though.

A healthcare professional and prolific poster on here accused those managing the vaccinations in England of going for numbers and ignoring clinical need by not doing care homes first. The obvious implications were that England was going for crowd pleasing numbers and Scotland cared more about it’s people.

I’m sure Scotland is working hard, logistics in these situations are always difficult, it’s very unlikely to be a political issue just lots of people trying to do their best. Just as in the other parts of the UK.

Nicola Sturgeon now looks like a totally weak leader. She has been unable to stop the infighting and, indeed, has been pouring fuel on the fire herself. This wasn’t a time to be “taking sides” it was a time for a calm head. As the two inquiries into the SCotGov/Sturgeon handling of the Salmond affair drag on, her position looks increasingly murky.

I’m inclined to agree, and it doesn’t matter if there’s anything to hide the unionists/media have now found a crack that they might be able to drive a wedge into. Even if she comes out exonerated they’ll not let it go, and more than Salmond’s supporters will. HOWEVER:

Rather sensational own goal by SNP leadership removing Joanna Cherry from the SNP front bench at Westminster

Not sure about that! Cherry is a prominent, vocal, articulate but highly divisive character. And I’m not talking about trans rights or internal party politics – I just mean her style comes across as “I know better, listen to me, I don’t need to listen to you” and that doesn’t resonate well will the “maybe” voters. Salmond was the same. Great for drumming up core support but could really grate, and it becomes about them not the policy.

big_n_daft
Free Member
It’s no particularly slow, it’s a wee bit behind at the minute, long way to go though.

A healthcare professional and prolific poster on here accused those managing the vaccinations in England of going for numbers and ignoring clinical need by not doing care homes first. The obvious implications were that England was going for crowd pleasing numbers and Scotland cared more about it’s people.

I’m sure Scotland is working hard, logistics in these situations are always difficult, it’s very unlikely to be a political issue just lots of people trying to do their best. Just as in the other parts of the UK.

Posted 6 hours ago

Yeah there’s no political capital in anyone in the UK going slow with vaccinations. It does none of them in any of the nation’s any good to go slow about it. So on that basis. I tend to think most are doing their best. Plus as I’ve mentioned we just need to look at the worldwide context. We are well on our way.

I just canny see how sniping about a few percent here and there or what amounts to, at the minute, a 5 day difference is particularly helpful to anyone(part from those looking to gain political points), neither is it particular slow.

All we are seeing is mildly different approaches and logistical challenges. We’ll all get there or there abouts at the same time. If there’s a week or 2 difference at the end up who cares. They are also systems getting put in place that will likely be used year on year.

Far as I can tell there very little cause to complain about the vaccines so far. It’s the one thing they seem to have got right in this whole shit show(well in lieu of questions about Sharing supply equitably world wide but that’s a whole other argument)

Nicola Sturgeon now looks like a totally weak leader. She has been unable to stop the infighting and, indeed, has been pouring fuel on the fire herself

Disagree, it’s been blown out of all proportion (by interested parties). Give it a week/month and no one will remember it even occurred.

(well in lieu of questions about Sharing supply equitably world wide but that’s a whole other argument)

It’s good to see you recognise that. If scottish voices say it rather than the English “our contract trumps your contract so there” it demonstrates a willingness to be part of the world order rather than an isolated island. The vaccine attitude will do as much harm to England as Brexit itself if people could but see it. The industrial strategy of European business will adapt.

Cherry is a prominent, vocal, articulate but highly divisive character. And I’m not talking about trans rights or internal party politics – I just mean her style comes across as “I know better, listen to me, I don’t need to listen to you” and that doesn’t resonate well will the “maybe” voters.

👆 definitely this.

Nicola Sturgeon now looks like a totally weak leader. She has been unable to stop the infighting and, indeed, has been pouring fuel on the fire herself

Dunno if I’d agree, the infighting is always going to happen, twas ever thus – look at every other party and it’s there, indeed it was infighting in the Tory party that took us out of the EU.

The Salmond issue hasn’t been the feeding frenzy the anti-SNP folks thought it would, it’ll keep bubbling away, but will it come to much?.

Poly is spot on about Cherry and Salmond tbh.

I just canny see how sniping about a few percent here and there or what amounts to, at the minute, a 5 day difference is particularly helpful to anyone(part from those looking to gain political points), neither is it particular slow.

All we are seeing is mildly different approaches and logistical challenges. We’ll all get there or there abouts at the same time. If there’s a week or 2 difference at the end up who cares. They are also systems getting put in place that will likely be used year on year.

I’ll be devils advocate. Do you believe if Scotland was number 1, the SNP wouldn’t make sure everybody was aware of it? Although that would be admitting that the UK’s vaccine purchasing strategy was incredibly successful, so who knows…

baboonz

I’ll be devils advocate. Do you believe if Scotland was number 1, the SNP wouldn’t make sure everybody was aware of it? Although that would be admitting that the UK’s vaccine purchasing strategy was incredibly successful, so who knows…

They more than likely would aye, sturgeon does like her subtle wee hints that scotland is doing a wee bit better than england, no doubt I’d say. It’d be equal bullshit though.

Same as scotland doing a wee bit better in infection rates and deaths and comparing, sorry nicola but it’s still honking what ever way we look at it.

Edukator
Free Member

It’s good to see you recognise that. If scottish voices say it rather than the English “our contract trumps your contract so there” it demonstrates a willingness to be part of the world order rather than an isolated island. The vaccine attitude will do as much harm to England as Brexit itself if people could but see it. The industrial strategy of European business will adapt.

Yeah, I stuck a thread up about it on here, I would look at a more equitable share, particularly once the over 50s and vulnerable are done. but tbh I don’t really see it happening, the UK will go full steam ahead with vaccinating the whole population I think. The politics domestically outweigh any international concerns though is really the only conclusion you can come to there.

in fairness to the uk they, they haven’t been shy in funding for vaccine development and will more than likely continue to help fund the likes of the WHO and COVAX etc, but vaccinating the domestic population will take priority I think.

Ultimately though, I think this whole vaccine issue is going to be a longer running issue, so the fact of who gets there first in general is a bit moot, because the goal isn’t to vaccinated 1 country and that’s it. The goal is to vaccinate all countries every year or every couple of year, depending on what will be needed. So for that the world needs much more robust systems in place.

So really the initial race is a bit of an irrelevance to the ultimate goal.

Hmm, as with any story, look beyond the headline and the reporting…

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/feb/03/independence-could-cost-scotlands-economy-11bn-a-year-forecast-suggests

Headline:
Independence could cost Scotland’s economy £11bn a year, forecast suggests
Economists say impact of leaving UK’s common market would hit two to three times as hard as leaving EU

Within the story:
Suggesting that the worst economic effects would take several decades to take hold, the LSE’s Centre for Economic Performance said the impacts on its trade with both the UK and the EU would shrink Scotland’s economy in the long run by between 6.3% and 8.7%.

Now lets look at the data:

https://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit17.pdf

The analysis leads to two main conclusions. First, the negative impact of independence on
Scotland’s economy is two to three times greater than the costs of Brexit. As shown in Figure
1, we estimate that Brexit reduces Scotland’s long-run income per capita by 2.0%. By contrast,
the combination of Brexit and independence reduces Scottish income per capita by between
6.3% and 8.7% depending upon whether border costs are low or high and whether Scotland
rejoins the EU. Independence hits Scotland’s economy harder than Brexit primarily because
Scottish trade with the rest of the UK is four times larger than its trade with the EU

Both the UK and Scottish Govt’s forecast Brexit at a 6% hit on the Scottish economy, so either they’re both way out and it’s “only” 2% or someone is trying to hide the cost of Brexit within independence OR the worse case, the report authors have missed the additional 4% hit.

Or am I reading this wrong?

Given that brexit has happened. I personally can’t see Scotland, when the time comes, prioritising rejoining the EU over negotiating issues on this island first.

Guess it’ll all depend on London’s attitude when it comes to negotiating mind.

Most of the folk saying Scotland can’t make it are regurgitating BritNat bilge like this.

I saw and heard similar stuff when I lived in the East African colonies* about them during their independence campaigns. It’s from the same playbook.

It was first used during the American Revolution, and it’s almost the same words. (I’ll try and find the quote, it’s a long time since I’ve seen it)

I wonder if there’s an old Colonial Office handbook somewhere that prescribes the wording and the superior honeyed tones in which to make such pronouncements.

*And before any BritNats start wittering on about the African economies, what really matters is not one of them wants British rule again, no matter how dire things are there.

I can safely bet you haven’t read the book, nor have 99.99% of the electorate

I’m still waiting big & daft.

Just because I NOW live in the Borders doesn’t mean I’m just some rural cousin who hasn’t been, seen & done it.

+1 epicyclo

Just had a conversation on Twitter:

Them:
Scotland are tragically poor under the SNP.

Me:
GDP per Capita
UK – £31,900
Scotland – £32,800
Seems someone is dragging the UK down, and it ain’t us.

Them:
Yes, the UK businesses in Scotland boost your economy significantly. That’s as long as you remain part of the UK of course. Otherwise they’ll move south…

Summary
I CBA to go any further with the conversation, but, according to the above ‘theory’ if we left the UK then they’d take all their jobs that they pay us more to do than it’d cost them to do them themselves.

I’m still waiting big & daft.

Just because I NOW live in the Borders doesn’t mean I’m just some rural cousin who hasn’t been, seen & done it.

I’m dutifully surprised that you read it, but as a former/ current wonk I’m sure you can give a better précis than a review by a labour MP. What are the basic arguments from your “seen it, done it” perspective?

Why do you think politicians write these books? The sales must be tiny so who reads them and why? Then why do they move on from them when they are in office and can implement their radical agenda?

GDP per Capita
UK – £31,900
Scotland – £32,800
Seems someone is dragging the UK down, and it ain’t us.

Remind me, what’s the Barnett formula differential and what is it’s influence on GDP of the individual nations?

Most of the folk saying Scotland can’t make it are regurgitating BritNat bilge like this.

On here no-one is saying Scotland can’t be independent, so why are you saying they are?

Has anyone on here used “BritNat bilge”, what was it they said?

So you think the Barnett formula is boosting the Scottish GDP? Presumably you can explain the lack of correlation between Barnett and GDP in other nations and at other times?

So you think the Barnett formula is boosting the Scottish GDP? Presumably you can explain the lack of correlation between Barnett and GDP in other nations and at other times?

Are you saying it doesn’t?

Are you ignoring the issues for the other nations as a fig leaf to say there is no link between public spending and GDP?

Why do you think politicians write these books? The sales must be tiny so who reads them and why? Then why do they move on from them when they are in office and can implement their radical agenda?

I’ll come back to your first question, but for the above in a nutshell, to get noticed.

And it worked as they’re all Ministers and now able to both feast from the trough AND get their backers (with the shovels) to the trough.

The Formula for Expenditure GDP

​
GDP=C+I+G+(X−M)
where:
C=Consumer spending on goods and services
I=Investor spending on business capital goods
G=Government spending on public goods and services
X=exports
M=imports

​

I’ll come back to your first question, but for the above in a nutshell, to get noticed.

By who and why? Do you not think it is essentially long form click bait by being “radical”.

And it worked as they’re all Ministers and now able to both feast from the trough AND get their backers (with the shovels) to the trough.

Does this not apply to all political parties? Is any party immune to grifters and the influence of their backers?

George Monbiot putting my local MP Andrew Bowie to the sword on the BBC of all places was glorious viewing.