Viewing 40 posts - 4,321 through 4,360 (of 4,694 total)
  • Scotland Indyref 2
  • Premier Icon eat_the_pudding
    Free Member

    seosamh,
    Oh come on;
    Can you genuinely not see the relationship between brexitters saying “They need us more than we need them”, and you saying “Is rUK just going to give up on the £60bn on exports they send up here?”

    Really? :O)

    Is that because we will be in such a strong position in the negotiations that the rUK will roll over and give us what we want?
    Is it because worldwide trade restrictions and rules [wether we are in the EU or out of it] will bend to our very will?

    Also, Do you have no comment on whether brexit would have got off the ground if EU supported UK to the tune of 140Bn out of 772Bn spending a year in free money?
    I mean you DO claim that scexit will get off the ground with the UK supporting scotland to the tune of 14Bn out of 77Bn spending a year (ish?) in free money?

    Premier Icon neilv
    Full Member

    What a great thread for a Friday.

    Some thoughts. You can break down Brexit however you want to make your argument stick. 38% of people in Scotland voted to leave. London vote to remaim. It’s not that simple and it not an England, Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland argument.

    If Scotland were to break away from the UK they would have to stand along for a period of time before applying to join the EU. This would include meeting the economic criteria which is not certain they would. They would also have to establish their own independent currency. You cannot be linked to another (like the pound, dollar, Euro).

    And let’s not even talk about the exit negotiation. If you think Brexit has been complicated Scotland leaving would be much worse.

    I think we all benefit from being together. I am British and only English when we play rugby. I even found myself at Twickenham chanting for Scotland when they sadly lost their final match of the 2015 rugby world cup. So I hope we all contunue to stick together through thick and thin.

    Merry Christmas.

    Premier Icon scotroutes
    Full Member

    they would also have to establish their own independent currency. You cannot be linked to another (like the pound, dollar, Euro).

    Aha, a man who knows. Perfect. Can you point us to the bit of the EU rules where that is made clear? We’ve been struggling to find it. TIA.

    Premier Icon Northwind
    Full Member

    eat_the_pudding

    Member

    seosamh
    Did you just say “They need us more than we need them” ..

    Ah yeah, it’s that thing when your argument is based entirely on just pretending the other guy said something he didn’t.

    Premier Icon eat_the_pudding
    Free Member

    Welcome scotroutes,
    I see you’re here to point out uncertainty (on the exact rules and future interpretation of EU policies on currency which may be unfavourable to your point of view),
    But reluctant to deal with facts, on the deficit, the rate of growth required to avoid austerity in a future indy scotland, where the cuts would fall if required, and how long it would be before we could meet criteria to rejoin the EU?

    Good job!

    I’m probably away from this thread for the holidays unless I get bored.
    Happy Solstice (and associated celebrations) everyone :O)
    Do some of what makes you happy with the people who make you happy.
    [coke/hookers]

    Premier Icon epicyclo
    Full Member

    Another few questions.

    How much revenue did the UK get from oil over the last few years? (My understanding is there’s no separation of the sources shown in govt figures)

    Is any of that allocated to Scottish waters?

    If you were running an independent Scotland would you stick to the current UK system of taxing it, or adopt the methods used by other countries? Possibly Norway, or a Middle East model.

    Premier Icon eat_the_pudding
    Free Member

    seosamh,
    You said;

    Is rUK just going to give up on the £60bn on exports they send up here?

    If you replace rUK with EU and you can’t see that that sentence is similar to arguments made by brexiters, then I can’t help you.

    I realise you don’t see yourself as a brexiter and I certainly don’t see you as one, but you’ve just used a very similar argument (and one you could and would easily debunk yourself in an EU thread).

    Have a Happy midwinter :O)

    Premier Icon epicyclo
    Full Member

    neilv
    If Scotland were to break away from the UK they would have to stand along for a period of time before applying to join the EU.

    Your source for that?

    Premier Icon seosamh77
    Full Member

    I mean you DO claim that scexit will get off the ground with the UK supporting scotland to the tune of 14Bn out of 77Bn spending a year (ish?) in free money?

    You’ve read the growth commision, you base a lot of your arguments on it, so why are you still claiming that it can’t get off the ground.

    The suggested deficit reduction could take 5 to 10 years.

    As for growth.

    Once again, R&D example, but the UK and scotland are piss poor.. Still Better together eh, defo working. Scotland can’t possibly be doing better than this..

    One might call the attitude of Scotland can’t possibly do better than us, British exceptionalism.. eh.. 😆

    Premier Icon seosamh77
    Full Member

    Anyhow, brexit just got done a minute ago, so I guess UK attitude to trade will be a known position long before any ref.

    Anyhoo, have a good yin!

    Premier Icon tjagain
    Full Member

    A key unknown is “How awkward is Westminster going to be over the financial divorce?

    Share the assets, share the debt, co operate and a smooth pass thru a transition period where Scotland uses the pound.
    Then the euro which would be IMO the only sensible choice long term

    Or

    Westminster has a tantrum, declares the bank of England belongs to it, Scotland takes none of the debt, Gets none of the assets. Euro immediately or Scottish pound backed by oil with no debt

    The other is what party is in power in a post independence Scotland? These are decisions for a post independence Government to make. I could see Scotlands parties of the left make a resurgence perhaps with the left of the SNP

    Premier Icon eat_the_pudding
    Free Member

    seosamh .. OK
    I’m going after this one …

    oil revenue is in the graph I put on the previous page. I think those graphs from (“kevverages” blog) show all the oil revenue added to the scottish “non oil” revenue to show if the oil would get rid of the deficit. In the 80s oh yes, now, definitely not.
    Overall black bit went to the UK, red bit came up to scotland, roughly equal areas (red beating black more as we go into the future).

    Your comment about recovering from deficit. Two answers
    a) thats the future so epi-nomics says we can’t possibly know.
    b) thats the bit of the report that a lot of people have issues with. The rate of growth required is not impossible but very unlikely. It’s a trip back to the “celtic tiger” predictions, and failure to launch could have serious consequences for the finances of scotland, and more importantly its people.

    That report has a lot of facts in it (for an SNP economic report meant to feed indy), but where exaggeration was possible, and benficial, it was used.
    e.g. Nicola is fond of saying (repeatedly) that the economic guidance in there would have meant that scotland needed no austerity over the last X years. But it doesn’t. It suggests pinning spending to growth (as I recall) and that would have required austerity. But she’ll never ever say that.

    Definitely off now.
    Can I just say (because its christmas) that although we all get a bit heated now and again, that the tone and discussion here could teach other social media a lot.
    Have a good one everyone.

    Premier Icon poah
    Free Member

    why does Westminster want to keep Scotland if we cost so much money?

    Premier Icon Northwind
    Full Member

    neilv

    Subscriber

    If Scotland were to break away from the UK they would have to stand along for a period of time before applying to join the EU.

    Why do you think that?

    neilv

    This would include meeting the economic criteria which is not certain they would.

    There isn’t any real doubt. The economic criteria for joining the EU are pretty undemanding, it’s the criteria for joining the euro which are trickier but these two things were kept intentionally separate.

    In fact it’s the rule-of-law and rights criteria which have caused almost all of the challenges for new and prospective members, and we start out aligned on that and are incredibly unlikely to want to diverge.

    neilv

    They would also have to establish their own independent currency. You cannot be linked to another (like the pound, dollar, Euro).

    We’ve covered this at some length already but no, there is nothing in any of the EU rules or treaties that requires a new member country to have its own currency. It would be a difficulty if joining the euro but these are not the same. Using the pound certainly could become a specific issue, if the RUK decided to diverge massively from the EU or suffered a massive ecomomic collapse but tbf in those cases using the pound at all would be a terrible idea.

    None of this stuff is mysterious- the rules for joining the EU are laid out, boringly and exhaustively, in treaties, and we can also see how they’ve worked in practice with all of the previous enlargements.

    Premier Icon TomZesty
    Full Member

    @poah – this is what I keep asking myself as an Englishman. Give the Scots their ref. If they want to stay, great, but then leave the independence stuff for a long time this time rather than demanding it again 5 years later (I accept with Brexit they should get another go as circumstances have changed since 2014). If they want to go l, also fine, it’s their democratic right. I think it would be a shame, but there would be a silver lining as English taxpayers would almost certainly save a bit of money.

    Only way to end the debate, have the indyref2!

    Premier Icon slackalice
    Full Member

    Good Lordy! 109 pages…. have you lot not left yet? C’mon, spit spot. 😉

    Premier Icon gordimhor
    Full Member

    Tom Zesty Scotland does have a right to choose.

    Premier Icon seosamh77
    Full Member

    as English taxpayers would almost certainly save a bit of money.

    Go on then, tell us how?

    Premier Icon aberdeenlune
    Free Member

    Don’t know why you guys are arguing about this. It’s a simple democratic right of a country to vote on its own future. If the Scottish parliament votes to have a referendum (which it did) then it should have the power to go ahead with that referendum.

    It’s a joke that the Westminster government with 6 MPs in Scotland is saying no. Should be exactly the same for Wales and Northern Ireland being able to decide their own future.

    If you are arguing against that is it because you reckon they are colonies and Westminster should make the big decisions? Perhaps then we should ditch the pretence of a union and call it what it is a little empire.

    Premier Icon epicyclo
    Full Member

    What do you think of this?

    Premier Icon kennyp
    Full Member

    Don’t know why you guys are arguing about this. It’s a simple democratic right of a country to vote on its own future.

    Totally agree. And in the election last week around 55% of Scottish voters voted for parties opposed to a second referendum.

    Therefore all Westminster is doing is respecting the wishes of the majority of Scots rather than giving in to a (admittedly very vocal) minority.

    In the same way that Boris has no actual mandate for Brexit. Two examples of our absurd first past the post voting system.

    Premier Icon big_n_daft
    Free Member

    I think it’s exceptionalist rubbish, Scotland more social, more internationalist etc

    It’s reheating the “get the rUK wound up so they want to get rid of us ” strategy

    Anyway how long is a generation? Just trying to judge how long we are going to be debating for.

    Second thoughts when does Alec go on trial, it would explain the SNP haste to get momentum in to the campaign before the dirty washing gets aired

    Premier Icon Nobeerinthefridge
    Free Member

    Anyway how long is a generation?

    It was once in a generation, unless there was a material change in circumstance, folk seem to conveniently forget this bit.

    I’d say that taking us out of the EU fulfils that change in circumstance.

    Premier Icon molgrips
    Free Member

    Should be exactly the same for Wales and Northern Ireland being able to decide their own future.

    But not Northern England?

    Premier Icon Nobeerinthefridge
    Free Member

    Last I checked northern England isn’t a country.

    That, and lots of it is a Tory heartland…

    Premier Icon epicyclo
    Full Member

    big_n_daft
    …Second thoughts when does Alec go on trial, it would explain the SNP haste to get momentum in to the campaign before the dirty washing gets aired

    Can you explain why that should change our views on independence?

    Premier Icon epicyclo
    Full Member

    Once in a generation? When does a casual remark become law?

    Can you find it in the actual agreement?

    And it’s not in the Smith Commission either…

    Premier Icon seosamh77
    Full Member

    kennyp

    Totally agree. And in the election last week around 55% of Scottish voters voted for parties opposed to a second referendum.

    I already showed you the manifestos proving that to be bull.

    Premier Icon seosamh77
    Full Member

    molgrips

    But not Northern England?

    If the north of england was sitting 50:50 for it’s own state, we’d know all about it.

    They, like wales, can speak for themselves.

    Premier Icon big_n_daft
    Free Member

    You will have to post the bit where a material change is mentioned as a reason for yet another referendum

    Premier Icon big_n_daft
    Free Member

    Can you explain why that should change our views on independence?

    Depends on how many of the leading lights of the SNP are left in a year. Regardless of guilt it’s going to be messy

    Premier Icon kennyp
    Full Member

    The Conservative and Liberal manifestos said they were opposed to a second referendum. The Labour manifesto said they were opposed to one definitely in the first few years and not certain after that.

    The majority of Scots voters opted for one of those parties. Therefore respecting the wishes of the Scottish people (as the SNP are very fond of saying) means respecting their desire not to have another decisive referendum.

    Premier Icon seosamh77
    Full Member

    big_n_daft

    Member
    You will have to post the bit where a material change is mentioned as a reason for yet another referendum

    Do you have anything other than sound bytes to offer? Could be forgiven for thinking you’re just out to get a rise…

    Premier Icon seosamh77
    Full Member

    kennyp

    Subscriber
    The Conservative and Liberal manifestos said they were opposed to a second referendum. The Labour manifesto said they were opposed to one definitely in the first few years and not certain after that.

    So not a majority for absolute no then…

    What you actually had was 46% yes to ref, 35.1% no. 18.6% sitting on the fence, but not for a couple of years.

    Somewhat different to what you portray.

    Premier Icon kennyp
    Full Member

    No but a majority for no referendum for at least the next few years. If the next Scottish election sees a change then fair enough but for now the voters do not want one.

    Premier Icon seosamh77
    Full Member

    Not gonny get one for a few years anyhow.

    Premier Icon kennyp
    Full Member

    Indeed and I’m biking in the morning so off to bed. Have a happy Christmas whatever your views.

    Premier Icon seosamh77
    Full Member

    Aye aw the best. I’m done for now I think anyhow. 😆

    Premier Icon TomZesty
    Full Member

    @gordimhor – I literally said they have the democratic right to choose? I’m in favour of the ref.

    @seosamh77 – as I understand it, and I may be wrong, Westminster sends more money to Scotland than Scotland pays back in taxes (much like most other areas of Britain other than SE). Therefore, if Scotland were independent Westminster would have more net money.

    Premier Icon gordimhor
    Full Member

    Peace on earth and goodwill to all men… Nah that’ll never catch on

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