I mean FFS holland is a swamp in the mouth of two huge rivers – It doesn’t even have any rocks to play with let along oil!

It does have a lot of gas though. Not to mention renewables.

Somehow they can maximize their natural resources, but we’re too wee, too poor and too stupid to do the same according to many

The one good  thing you can say about the Empire’s anti-independentistas is they are great recyclers, yet they get it wrong – every time.

How would you respond?

I’d ask what the EU thinks about that for a starter. I don’t see why you need to have entered negotiations to get answers to fairly fundamental questions..

So if they followed up ‘

‘There is no requirement or expectation that any new member should have its own central bank, with..

‘The eu have confirmed this to us’

Then I’d be happy.

The brexiteers got ripped apart on here for their unicorns. I’m not sure why the snp’s claims, when unsubstantiated, should be treated any differently.

tpbiker

Member

I’d ask what the EU thinks about that for a starter. I don’t see why you need to have entered negotiations to get answers to fairly fundamental questions..

Seriously? We know what the EU thinks about that, they wrote a treaty about it. That’s kind of what treaties do.

Besides, now we have the scottish government second guessing every possible question and answering them all. But you don’t trust their answers, so what’s the point? And you don’t accept EU treaties as sufficient evidence of what the EU treaties say, how far should that go? Council? President? When do you stop saying “No, not good enough, I want it from someone else” despite saying “Yes I will consider this an important enough question to consume government and EU time, despite nobody attempting to support it with evidence”

The EU is legally prohibited from any discussions on a formal basis with the scottish government. during the referendum campaign Westminster refused to ask the questions of the EU that the Scottish government wanted answers to and the Scottish government could not ask these questions directly

just in here again ..
I see the unicorns are breeding :O)
WRT the economic position, GERS (I know that phrase makes some of you start venting out your ears) is the best we have and is COMPILED AND BACKED BY THE SCOTTISH GOVERNMENT (i.e. nicola herself).

The reason it makes (some of) you vent is because of all the balls that has been spouted about it in an attempt to discredit it, some of which is sticking but none of which is statistically valid (or it would be in the figures).

Day 1 of independence = 14Bn/yr in cuts (as opposed to “murderous austerity” which was 2Bn/yr (top of my head .. can’t be arsed googling).

“No trident” saves us 0.6Bn/yr and NO-ONE here or in the SNP has ever said what else they would cut.

Thats why the economics didn’t and doesn’t add up.

An independent scotland may be something you want (for a variety of righteous or unrighteous reasons) and the level of economic damage (or societal damage) you are prepared to sustain in the process may be huge, but mine isn’t. So don’t blow smoke up our arses telling us it will make us rich or even keep us at the same level.

On day 1, it won’t, and the “25 years to qualify for the EU economically” figure came from the SGs own report that I referenced earlier, and was based on what were widely seen as unreasonable levels of growth.

TL;DR
Facts exist, not all predictions are based on the zodiac and people who claim “you can’t know anything for sure” probably don’t have either facts or competent predictions on their side.

You have had explained to you numerous times the issues with Gers and why it does not show what you think it does and also that the reaction to deficit to a sovereign nation does not mean immediate cuts of the size of the deficit. You can reduce a deficit by cuts ( which as we know from tory austerity does not work as it reduces economic activity) you can borrow or you can increase taxes.

Anyway even if what yo say is true then its hardly a glowing endorsement of the economic policies of the UK is it?

Fair dos, I do agree that gers is an issue. I’ve been saying for long enough I don’t think the middle ground tips till those look better. It seems to me on the face of simplistic. But still they exist and I don’t argue their veracity. The gap is and has been reducing though. It mostly why I’d been suggest 2030.

I am still reading though the SGC report you mention. Will take me a while to get through the 300/400 pages.

It seems fairly scathing of the current UK position so far mind.

But I can’t particularly argue over that report yet. But I will at some point. 😉

I am actually looking to gear myself up with a lot more info this time. I think that’s a challenge the no side will face more and more this time. Last time there was a lack, I do agree.

The other thing with GERS is the deficit under those numbers per head of population in Scotland is less than the loses per head to the UK from brexit so far! Just to put it in perspective

Unless I got my numbers badly wrong but I think it works out around £2500 per person whereas brexit is over £3000 per person in the last year alone

Scotland would go into independence with a deficit yes. a large deficit. However it would have the economic tools to deal with it. the deficit as a % of GDP would be similar to that the UK has had many times. Ie around 8%

Here’s one view…

https://macalbasite.wordpress.com/2019/12/17/exposing-our-wealth-or-keeping-it-hidden/?fbclid=IwAR1m7K4f2sGhY-HM2UaogpKLWh3txgIwqahMwKqtn39W7nH4jFgacnrkYAM

But the fact is no one can accurately predict what will happen after independence.

All we can do is guess.

We know the British State has a history of lying to us and uses deceit to prevent independence, eg Mc Crone Report.

So why should we believe they are telling the truth now?

But what I’d like to know from the prognosticators of doom is:

Why is Scotland unique amongst all the countries that have sought independence?

Why is it alone destined to fail despite having more resources than most of them and despite having a highly educated population?

Is this the exceptionalism of which some speak?

tj and seosamh,
I know gers is not perfect, but its the best indicator we have (and when it looked good because of oil prices at the time of “the book of dreams” approaching 2014 every major indy-peddlar was on the record using it as a “gold plated” example of the future scotland could afford.

I also know that for many people the economics of indy is just a side issue. Which is fair enough (but also disallows claims to care about the poor and disadvantaged in society).

But if you can’t win the vote without lying and obfuscating about economic realty, then your on a fast train to brexitnomics.

Can you honestly say that you would want to win a close indy vote by proglumating lies (which would later became obvious)?

edit: P.S. if different policies would produce different results to a sufficient extent, why not tell us what the policies might be, and then war game them with some economists and see what pops out? Less talk about needing “levers”, and more about what you’d actually do with them.

Why is Scotland unique amongst all the countries that have sought independence?

The all important question that the yoons can’t answer.

but its the best indicator we have

Of the status quo. It indicates nothing more than that

The one good thing you can say about the Empire’s anti-independentistas is they are great recyclers, yet they get it wrong – every time.

Hah. Not only is that cartoon historically and economically illiterate, it’s inaccurate and embarrassingly one-eyed and emotive. A pretty breathtaking sweep of shitness and yet it’s the one you posted epicyclo!

No-one with a brain thinks you’re too poor, too small or too stupid. The main issue is that you’re not currently set up to be independent in the modern world and that’s going to be a huge problem for you for a long time.

eat_the_pudding

Member
tj and seosamh,
I know gers is not perfect, but its the best indicator we have (and when it looked good because of oil prices at the time of “the book of dreams” approaching 2014 every major indy-peddlar was on the record using it as a “gold plated” example of the future scotland could afford.

I also know that for many people the economics of indy is just a side issue. Which is fair enough (but also disallows claims to care about the poor and disadvantaged in society).

But if you can’t win the vote without lying and obfuscating about economic realty, then your on a fast train to brexitnomics.

Can you honestly say that you would want to win a close indy vote by proglumating lies (which would later became obvious)?

edit: P.S. if different policies would produce different results to a sufficient extent, why not tell us what the policies might be, and then war game them with some economists and see what pops out? Less talk about needing “levers”, and more about what you’d actually do with them.

Fair do’s like I say, I’m re-assessing the numbers.

You seem a little skewed yourself tbh, you completely dismiss any criticism the Scottish government has on uk prospects or on their opinion on Scotlands ability to grow, while at the same time, relying on GERS the ultimate standard. If the figures provided by the Scottish gov, GERS, are the gold standard, why do you dismiss what they say on other things?

So a bit of give needed on your side too. Seems a bit disingenuous to me…

epicyclo
Why is nicola conspiring to hide scotlands true wealth.
Makes you think eh?
How deep does this rabbithole go!

Why is Scotland unique amongst all the countries that have sought independence?

Why is it alone destined to fail despite having more resources than most of them and despite having a highly educated population?

NOONE is saying that, except you. The only people (non ironically) say scotland is “too wee too poor and too stupid” are independence supporters.

But saying that an indy scotland would have a massive deficit and a need for massive austerity (and thus a lower ability to look after the health and welfare of its citizens than now), isn’t really a political statement.

It’s the best economic statement of where we’d be right now with only our own taxes to pay for our own stuff (without the benefit of pooling and sharing across the UK).

Incidentally, ALL areas of the UK benefit positively from that to a greater or lesser extent except SE england.

Try your “economics” on NI for example. the equivalent of GERS figures says that the deficit in NI is as follows

Does that mean that a newly independent NI would (lets say tomorrow) be able to sustain current levels of spending on health and social services?

If not, then what would make NI unique among all other nations!?

Would people claiming that NI would suffer economic damage without pooling and sharing be called “prognosticators of doom?”

Do you see the flaw in your argument yet?

Do you see how having less money to spend on stuff you value is a real thing with real effects and not just a political opinion?

PS for seosamh, GERS is a (statistical) measurement. Predictions of growth are more difficult, but can be seen in the context of other countries trying to do the same thing. The SG predictions of growth are a very ambitious in that context.

But saying that an indy scotland would have a massive deficit and a need for massive austerity (and thus a lower ability to look after the health and welfare of its citizens than now), isn’t really a political statement.

Yes it is as there are other ways to deal with deficit than cuts

The only people (non ironically) say scotland is “too wee too poor and too stupid” are independence supporters.

Wrong – its exactly what most of the unionists say and what you are saying here

Now why can scotland not be a prosperous independent country like Holland, Sweden, Finland etc.

PS for seosamh, GERS is a (statistical) measurement. Predictions of growth are more difficult, but can be seen in the context of other countries trying to do the same thing. The SG predictions of growth are a very ambitious in that context.

Agreed predictions are more diffucult, but the context isn’t really like for like, comparing to other countries, given Scotlands limited control and potential for more control.

One example, like an IS’s ability to increase immigration and the population size, given it’s stunted population growth(which isn’t changing under the uk), say that Scotland has the potential to grow differently from other nations who’ve had that control all along. There’s one stat, in the SGC, that says if scotlands population had grown at the same rate as the uk it would be sitting at 6.1million just now. An extra 600 thousand people is quite a boost to the economic potential of a country.

You say, tell us what you’ll do with the extra power, then you just dismiss their conclusions and projection out of hand.

How can you argue against that?

PS with reference to my previous statements on NI’s economy.
I fully accept that the secret oilfields (codename Rathlin) might change things dramatically.
You should also be aware that the value of sheep, igneous rock formations and titanic museums can go up as well as down.
If someday, like no other nation on earth, NI decided to charge taxes or “duty” on exports (like indy supporters think happens to whisky) than that could change things as well.

I’m not saying that scotland can’t be a country.
I’m not saying that scotland can’t be a prosperous country (at some point in the future).

I’m just saying that tomorrow, independent, we couldn’t afford to spend as much money on the things we claim to value (NHS, social services etc.).
And getting back to where we are now spending wise would not be easy and not be a good time for the poor and disadvantaged.

If you find that controversial, then how do you feel about what I said about NI above?

Also, our economy would disallow us from joining the EU until things change dramatically (and nicola is on the record saying that scotland could deal with the deficit “in the same way that other countries deal with it” i.e. austerity).

All of this is true based on NOW, I’m not saying that things can’t or won’t change, but you’ll have to start by accepting that facts exist. And sometimes predictions are just wrong

I’m old enough to remember when we could have been the new celtic tiger, and part of the “arc of prosperity” (heady times!).

Irelands GDPPC currently drawfs the uks.

seosamh,
Counting the money I got paid and the money I spent over the last year .. not hard.

Predicting the value of sterling a year from now, the value of services and goods sold over the next year, the productivity and output of the average scottish worker, and how all of that might be affected by global trends and the global economy .. hard.

Also I was talking about northern ireland, because it has a deficit within the UK as scotland does, just a less controversial and politically charged one, for now.

What would I do as TJ king of independent Scotland to deal with the poorly performing economy and the deficit?
1) Invest in infrastructure especially renewables and renewable tech – keeps money in the country and provides export opportunities
2) scrap the military ( bar perhaps a small standing army and some gunboats and a few hekilopters.)
3) legalise cannabis Nice new tax revenue stream plus all those cannabis tourists from down south
4) redistibutive income tax and a huge clampdown on tax avoidence. make starbucks / amazon pay their share
4) bring natural monoplies like rail and electricity back into state control. Let the state have the profits

So there we have a growing economy with increased tax receipts, decreased costs and bingo – loadsamoney!

“in the same way that other countries deal with it” i.e. austerity).

Ermmm – apart from the unfortunate fact that most other countries did not implement austerity in the way the tories did because they know it does no good

eat_the_pudding

Member
seosamh,
Counting the money I got paid and the money I spent over the last year .. not hard.

Predicting the value of sterling a year from now, the value of services and goods sold over the next year, the productivity and output of the average scottish worker, and how all of that might be affected by global trends and the global economy .. hard.

Also I was talking about northern ireland, because it has a deficit within the UK as scotland does, just a less controversial and politically charged one, for now.

So basically you are saying you can never be convinced? It’s too difficult?

BTW, everywhere with in the uk has a deficit outside of london and the SE.

Over investment in London and the SE is a large part of that problem.

tj,
Now thats a manifesto i can get behind 🙂

My point is that honesty is better than lies. Some things are facts, some things are opinions and some things are imagination.

The lesson of 2014 was that lies can almost win referendums. (and how may people even today still argue that “scotland supports the economy of the rest of the UK”, and that “the [non existent] whisky export duty is stolen down south”)

The lesson of 2016 was that they can.

Is that what you want?

eat_the_pudding

NOONE is saying that, except you.

No, you are. Stop gaslighting.

You are the one making predictions of economic doom.

I want to know the answer to two very simple questions.

Why is Scotland going to fail? You claim to know what will happen in advance based on the current set of figures.

What factor amongst those will make Scotland fail as an independent nation?

Perhaps you could give examples of other similar nations in similar circumstances that have failed after independence to help us avoid our awful fate.

I’m still trying to work out what uniqueness you see in Scotland that will make us failures.

Actually the lesson of 2014 is that lies do win referendums – they side with the biggest lies won!

Better together my arse

6) Lease Faslane to rUK for £5bn a year.

On nuclear I have principles but they aren’t worth billions

Jings Folks; where were YOU at 2.15PM on December 18th 2019 when TJ came up with a better set of policies than any party in the UK had during the GE? Broken clock etc…

richmtb

Subscriber
6) Lease Faslane to rUK for £5bn a year.

On nuclear I have principles but they aren’t worth billions

tbh, i’m for that, couldn’t give a hoot about nukes. 😆

seosamh

BTW, everywhere with in the uk has a deficit outside of london and the SE.

I know.. I told you that :O)

I’m ambivalent on the future of scotlands economy, could be bad could be good. And theres no definitive reason I can see why it can’t be good TBH, but it would take TIME to get back to where we are now, and TIME to rejoin the EU.

But I’m a bit unforgiving of people who refuse to accept that the bit in between now and the sunlit uplands might be a shitshow for the people that indy promised to help and take care of. (and you can’t deny that the rhetoric of “NHS under threat” despite local control is a driver here).

TJs economic miracle described above (which I shall call “the celtic drugbowl” in honour of I.M. Banks) is longer and more plausible description of the future than I’ve seen discussed in SG circles.

Whatever indy is about (and its been about many things over the years) it has to be (even more after brexshit) about telling the truth about what you’re offering.

If you do that, and people vote for it, then fine.
If you improve the economy right now, and make the rhetoric true and get 60% of people to vote for it, better.

molgrips

Not only is that cartoon historically and economically illiterate, it’s inaccurate and embarrassingly one-eyed and emotive. A pretty breathtaking sweep of shitness and yet it’s the one you posted epicyclo!

No-one with a brain thinks you’re too poor, too small or too stupid. The main issue is that you’re not currently set up to be independent in the modern world and that’s going to be a huge problem for you for a long time.

Humour deficit there, molgrips. It’s a cartoon and it’s illustrating a theme. (I expected one of you to jump on the Sweden/Norway reference)

But I notice you didn’t address my actual statement so I’ll repeat it to save you looking for it.

The one good  thing you can say about the Empire’s anti-independentistas is they are great recyclers, yet they get it wrong – every time.

Oh, and to keep it fresh here’s another example of doom-mongering by one of the Empire’s placemen

Here’s a challenge for you.

Find a prediction of doom prior to the independence of a country (similar to Scotland) that has turned out to be true.

It shouldn’t be hard, should it? After all there’s hundreds of independent countries out there, and I know there’s a similar amount of forecasts of calamity.

Surely you must be able to find at least one that turned out to be true.

Why is Scotland unique amongst all the countries that have sought independence?

How much do you know about the context and aftermath of independence for all these post-independent countries?

eat_the_pudding

Member
seosamh

BTW, everywhere with in the uk has a deficit outside of london and the SE.

I know.. I told you that :O)

I’m ambivalent on the future of scotlands economy, could be bad could be good. And theres no definitive reason I can see why it can’t be good TBH, but it would take TIME to get back to where we are now, and TIME to rejoin the EU.

But I’m a bit unforgiving of people who refuse to accept that the bit in between now and the sunlit uplands might be a shitshow for the people that indy promised to help and take care of. (and you can’t deny that the rhetoric of “NHS under threat” despite local control is a driver here).

TJs economic miracle described above (which I shall call “the celtic drugbowl” in honour of I.M. Banks) is longer and more plausible description of the future than I’ve seen discussed in SG circles.

Whatever indy is about (and its been about many things over the years) it has to be (even more after brexshit) about telling the truth about what you’re offering.

If you do that, and people vote for it, then fine.
If you improve the economy right now, and make the rhetoric true and get 60% of people to vote for it, better.

The deficit has been reducing significantly as % of gdp, from 16.3% in 09/10, to 8.5% now excluding the oil.

epicyclo
No You!
I’m predicting eff all.
I’m saying that the CURRENT FIGURES show that we have a deficit, and that wishing it away without paying for it somehow (austerity?) won’t wash.

Of course scotland can be a country, but are you saying that we could afford (tomorrow, independent) the social services and NHS provision we currently have?

If you are then you are the indy equivalent of the worst kind of brexshitter.

To put it more simply;
I’m not going to believe you about the projections of sunlit uplands while you are shovelling shit in my ears.

You can (and no doubt will) argue about the reasons for scotlands relative economic position, but closing your eyes and promising that everything will get better because of “X” is for children.

By the way you still haven’t used your epignomic insights to explain why NI’s deficit is a thing of the imagination and would have no negative effect if the extra money went away suddenly.

When you’ve finished with NI, you can do the same for the rest of the UK region by region until we’re all rich beyond our wildest dreams! :O)

molgrips

How much do you know about the context and aftermath of independence for all these post-independent countries?

I’m not the one making predictions of doom so I’m relying on your claimed expertise in this matter.

So reveal the list of failures to us, we’re waiting with bated breath for enlightenment.

You may even save us from our dire fate!

seosamh,
good .. lets keep it up and see what happens when rhetoric meets reality :O)

I might (still) not be in favour of indy, but I’d be less bothered if I lost to people who were telling the truth.

if the extra money went away suddenly.

Why does the money go away suddenly? Does Scotland have an inability to borrow to cover the shortfall while it grows it’s economy?