brucewee,
An independent scotland would have been out of the EU in 2014.
An independent scotland now (even wanting to rejoin) would be out of the EU for maybe 25 years before qualifying economically (and that qualification would come by means of austerity).

I know that your answer to e.g. the Riemann hypothesis is “INDEPENDENCE” and you find the majority of your fellow countrymen a disappointment, but please try to see the other side.

You know that feeling that you get when you see boris or farrage talking up the result of the EU referendum when you know it no longer represents the will of the majority?

Well thats the feeling that the majority of the people in scotland get when sturgeon goes off on one. Shes mistaking political power for an excuse to speak on behalf of “the people”. But she only speaks for half of us at best and mostly less than half.

Nationalism at its best.

I would agree that the chances are slim. In fact, I would put them in the ‘that ship has sailed’ category.

Assuming you agree that the vast majority in Scotland are in favour of remaining and independence is the last chance to do that I’m struggling to see your objection to another referendum.

eat_the_pudding, you seem very sure of yourself despite these being things you cannot possibly be sure of.

I can post links showing that the attitudes towards iScotland from EU states is very different now compared to 2014 but tbh, there are so many you’d be better off just googling it yourself.

As for the majority of Scots, neither one of us knows that number now. We know the numbers from when leaving the EU ‘might’ happen but we don’t know what the numbers are now that it ‘will’ happen.

Opinion polls over the next few months will be interesting.

tjagain

Member
I think the next set of opinion polls on this will be interesting. I would be very suprised if it is not a significant majority for independence

I would. it’ll be a drip feed over the next few years, might have taken a 1 or 2 % bump recently.

brucewee
Majority in favour of the EU <> majority against the union.
Majority against brexit <> majority in favour of scexit

and the evidence for that is written all over the most recent poll we just had.

You probably can see that even though its convenient for you to ignore it

I’m not denying that that could change as brexit bites, but we both know that if support for europe was the same as support for independence (or even a “consistent 60% in the polls” remember that?) it would have already happened.

Assuming you agree that the vast majority in Scotland are in favour of remaining and independence is the last chance to do that I’m struggling to see your objection to another referendum.

I’m being slightly contradictory in my replies. Originally I was disputing the SNP claim to have a mandate for another vote. I don’t like their constant claim to speak on behalf of the people of Scotland, as though it is some sort of god given right. The don’t speak for me, and if the election results are anything to go by, they don’t speak for the majority of Scots either.

However on the other hand I also said above that maybe there is a case for a second vote, for the reasons you have put forward. However I would like it to be in a few years time so things can settle down a bit. At the moment we don’t know how things are going to pan out.

I would also like there to be more detail on what an independence agreement would like like, either pre negotiated or by having a second confirmation vote (like there should be with Brexit). I also think, given the very decisive nature of referenda, that any future ones (on anything) should need at least 60% of a majority to be passed.

brucewee
Majority in favour of the EU <> majority against the union.
Majority against brexit <> majority in favour of scexit

and the evidence for that is written all over the most recent poll we just had.

You probably can see that even though its convenient for you to ignore it

I genuinely have no idea what you are saying here.

I don’t know what the first two lines mean at all.

When you say the most recent poll are you talking about the GE?

If so, then yes, we can tell some things from it but not in terms of the binary questions.

What we can tell is that 25% of people voted for parties in favour of Brexit and the Union.

46% of people voted for parties against Brexit and the Union.

29% of people voted against Brexit and for the Union.

We have no way of knowing what those 29% value more highly, the EU or the Union, so saying anything with your level of certainty is just wishful thinking.

kennyp

Subscriber
The Westminster controlled parties in Scotland campaigned on a simple message “Vote for us to stop IndyRef2” and the SNP then won 80% of the seats in Scotland

The Westminster controlled parties in Scotland campaigned on a simple message “Vote for us to stop IndyRef2” and as a result got 55% of the vote, a clear democratic message.

Fixed that for you. Or does democracy only work one way?

That’s just not true, the tories did campaign on a straight no. Labour didn’t, they followed Corbyns line of being coy about it, hinting they’ll allow one in a few years.

That’s why in the early years of a UK Labour government will not agree to a section 30 order request if it comes from the Scottish Government.

That’s not a no, so bang goes your no ref mandate..

page 98..

https://scottishlabour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Scottish-Labour-Manifesto-2019.pdf

scot tory manefesto

http://www.scottishconservatives.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/GE-Manifesto_Scotland.pdf

The don’t speak for me, and if the election results are anything to go by, they don’t speak for the majority of Scots either.

Maybe not on everything (they don’t speak for me on everything, that’s for sure) but they do speak for you with regards remaining in the EU?

Like I said, that is the one thing that is certain about the Scottish results. Independence is now the only way of achieving that so in my view they have a duty to pursue another referendum.

Unless anyone has any other suggestions how they can represent the 75% of Scots who want to remain in the EU?

I too would like a fairer UK – but that is never going to happen is it?

It will swing back in the future. If Corbyn hadn’t agreed to stand in the leadership election we’d have had a decent centrist Labour majority again, and Tories would have been reduced to short interlude in a generation-long period of centrist Labour government.

Portraying England as a nation of Tory scumbags isn’t accurate or fair. The majority are centrist, just as in Scotland, they just weren’t well served by the parties on offer this time unlike in Scotland.

Portraying England as a nation of Tory scumbags isn’t accurate or fair.

Can you give us some examples of people on this thread who have said England is a nation of Tory scumbags or words to that effect?

Can you give us some examples of people on this thread who have said England is a nation of Tory scumbags or words to that effect?

I quoted the comment that prompted my post.

I quoted the comment that prompted my post.

I don’t believe TJ was saying English people were all Tory scumbags, do you?

There is a very unfair electoral system that allows the minority of scumbags to vote in a government with a massive majority.

It’s not fair, it’s highly unlikely to change anytime soon, and I don’t think it’s xenophobic to point that out.

I don’t believe TJ was saying English people were all Tory scumbags, do you?

There is a very unfair electoral system that allows the minority of scumbags to vote in a government with a massive majority.

It’s not fair, it’s highly unlikely to change anytime soon, and I don’t think it’s xenophobic to point that out.

kinder gentler politics…… oh sorry that was Labour

molgrips

I quoted the comment that prompted my post.

You’ve got some chip on yer shoulder fella.

Is your goal to come on and taunt, so someone bites, and then you can justify what are obviously your preconceptions?

Portraying England as a nation of Tory scumbags isn’t accurate or fair

I can live with being an English scumbag but I absolutely draw the line at being called a Tory 🙂

Is your goal to come on and taunt, so someone bites, and then you can justify what are obviously your preconceptions?

No. What I’m doing is calling out this Scottish exceptionalism that pervades these threads. Everyone seems to think that Scotland will be sunlit uplands once it’s freed from those awful English. That’s the language of Nationalism the world over, it’s the language of Brexit too. Scotland will have its own racists and right wing factions just like England does, and they’ll end up having a similar effect long term.

The idea that Scots are all centrists and the English are right wing seems absurd to me. The biggest UK landslides in recent memory were centrist, along with centrist landslides in Scotland. So that should tell you that the UK as a whole is centrist.

If your argument is simply in favour of a more effective democratic system then fine, make that case – but leave out the veiled anglophobia or take some steps to try and avoid sounding like it. Otherwise the whole thread ends up stinking. I’ve only got your words to go on.

And I’m not even English so I’m not taking personal offence.

Molgrips
I don’t think you grasp the political divergence between England and Scotland

Having read this thread from the start (and with sympathies for the pro- independence Scots) this situation has changed so much from Thursday. Johnson has a big enough majority and the language has already changed. The last vote was a “once in a generation” and the Tory party is already messaging that SNP didn’t get a majority of votes in Scotland. Hence Boris will just ignore all claims for another referendum. There is precious little that Scotland can do about this.

Also Scotland will be taken out of the EU with the UK and hence a further referendum will be (if it ever happens) to a Scotland that will have to re-apply to join the EU. That’s much harder with the economic rules the EU sets down and with Spain (due to Gibraltar and Catalan issues) veto’ing Scotland’s memebership.

I think that this is very much the Tory strategy to keep Scotland in the Union.

but leave out the veiled anglophobia or take some steps to try and avoid sounding like it

OK, but you’ll have to point it out when it happens. You can’t just say, ‘there’s a general air of anti-Englishness here’ and leave it at that.

Also, you can’t just say, “‘The election system is unfair and I don’t think it’s going to change’ really means ‘All English are Tory scumbags'” without explaining why.

I don’t think you grasp the political divergence between England and Scotland

I don’t think you grasp that either country isn’t a homogeneous political lump

anyway meet a “tory scumbag”
https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1217140/hyndburn-election-results-2019-Sara-britcliffe-conservative

molgrips

Subscriber
Is your goal to come on and taunt, so someone bites, and then you can justify what are obviously your preconceptions?

No. What I’m doing is calling out this Scottish exceptionalism that pervades these threads. Everyone seems to think that Scotland will be sunlit uplands once it’s freed from those awful English. That’s the language of Nationalism the world over, it’s the language of Brexit too. Scotland will have its own racists and right wing factions just like England does, and they’ll end up having a similar effect long term.

The idea that Scots are all centrists and the English are right wing seems absurd to me. The biggest UK landslides in recent memory were centrist, along with centrist landslides in Scotland. So that should tell you that the UK as a whole is centrist.

If your argument is simply in favour of a more effective democratic system then fine, make that case – but leave out the veiled anglophobia or take some steps to try and avoid sounding like it. Otherwise the whole thread ends up stinking. I’ve only got your words to go on.

And I’m not even English so I’m not taking personal offence.

You are full of shite. The discussion has been well mannered.

Away and take your frustration at Wales making a c of it somewhere else. You’re the one trying to turn this into something it clearly isn’t.

tj,
If you look at stats for things (like the attitudes to immigrants etc. was the last thing I read about) Scotland is just not that different to the rest of the UK.

Attitude to the EU is the biggest recent difference (hence this latest discussion) but on a lot of other metrics thats just not the case.

I tend to think that our attitude to the EU is potentially a result of the fact that we were forced to think about the wider world and our relationship to it during the run up to 2014 in a way that the rest of the UK wasn’t.

Also if what you say is true and everything is inevitably moving towards indy, whats the rush? Why not wait a few years for the “inevitable” overwhelming majority, and then take it?

Maybe you secretly realise that rushing people into a vote without time to look at all the issues, or bring all of the lies to the surface, and then offer no way back when the truth comes out is the way we do things now?

In support of molgrips, there is an air of scottish exceptionalism here, and its as obvious (and annoying) as the english nationalism that pervades other social media (particularly when talking about brexit).

Just because there is a change of a few % points in attitudes that makes a massive difference in a FPTP electoral system does not mean that a country and its people are either angels or demons.

more tory scumbags

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50772518

ex army, social worker, community councillor and micro brewery owner………. she must be horrific

then there is the former dolphin trainer

The discussion has been well mannered.

One of the reasons I have contributed a good few things to this thread today is the above.

A few questions for those of you in favour of a second referendum vote:-

1. When should it be?

2. Should it be 50% + 1 or something more decisive?

3. In the event of a no vote, should a third vote be held and if so when?

Everyone seems to think that Scotland will be sunlit uplands once it’s freed from those awful English.

It’s not the awful English that we want away from. Most English people are, in my opinion, pretty goddamn  groovy.

It’s the London-centric government at Westminster that grates. They don’t give a shite about anyone outside their bubble.

I’d be equally hacked off if I was English and lived in Cornwall or Norfolk or Yorkshire or anywhere else that gets forgotten about.

We’re just fortunate enough to have a historical border and a political momentum to try and do something about it.

It won’t be sunlit uplands but at least it might  be a shitstorm of our own choosing.

eat_the_pudding

Member
In support of molgrips, there is an air of scottish exceptionalism here,

Show us some examples?

Just because there is a change of a few % points in attitudes that makes a massive difference in a FPTP electoral system does not mean that a country and its people are either angels or demons.

Who’s claiming that? I like England it’s a great place.

Tory governments habitually enforced upon us can get tae though.

If you look at stats for things (like the attitudes to immigrants etc. was the last thing I read about) Scotland is just not that different to the rest of the UK.

I suspect if Scotland had the same levels of immigration that parts of England have then we would see a lot of the same rather nasty views expressed up here. I don’t like that holier than thou attitude that sometimes comes across.

1. When should it be?

2. Should it be 50% + 1 or something more decisive?

3. In the event of a no vote, should a third vote be held and if so when?

1. As soon as possible. Or at least, the first one should be which brings me onto point 2.

2. I think 50% + 1 is the only fair way to do it. If you require a super majority then you are effectively saying that Unionist voter’s opinion is worth more than Nationalist voter’s.

However, whatever withdrawl agreement is decided after the first vote it’s unlikely to be exactly the same as whatever is in the White Paper. Therefore there’s a good chance it will need a confirmatory referendum with an option to stay in the union.

I think having multiple referendums is fairer than demanding a super majority.

3. I think independence referendums should be held every time the country returns a majority of candidates who had an independence referendum in their manifesto. There shouldn’t be a ‘from on high’ declaration that there will be no more referendums. If the voters don’t want another referendum then they should vote for candidates who don’t have referendums in their manifesto.

If the voting system means that there will always be a majority of candidates who are in favour of independence then the voting system should be changed.

seosamh
Exceptionalism works alongside nationalism.

It leads people to say things like:

I don’t think you grasp the political divergence between England and Scotland

I won’t go further in looking for examples, because I’ve spent a bit of time on here trying to point out the correlations between brexit and scexit in the form and style of the arguments deployed, and the undercurrent of “heres us and whos like us” that pervedes both english and scottish nationalism.

If you can’t see it by now you never will.

On political attitudes and divergence – you only have to look at voting patterns to see the difference. 62% remain and not a single constituency voted leave. Tories at the highest level for a generation or two – at 25%. Brxit / Ukip – almost no votes.

We have a tax raising / improving services government – elected on a platform of raising taxes!

eat the pudding – scottish and english nationalism are diametrically opposite. One is blood nd soil, the other civic.

A few questions for those of you in favour of a second referendum vote:-

1. When should it be?

2. Should it be 50% + 1 or something more decisive?

3. In the event of a no vote, should a third vote be held and if so when?

1. Before the brexit debacle, I was arguing 2030, I’d prefer 60%+. Since Thursday, I now think 2023/24 is likely and preferable, I think the population will shift quite a bit.

2. I’d like 60%+, but in reality no-one is going to stand for such limitations.

3. If it gets beat, it’ll be it for another 20/30 year I’d probably guess. I don’t think you can exclude the question again forever. If it’s right to ask once, it’s valid to ask again. But if it gets beat this time, it’ll be the last throw for a long time.

You are full of shite. The discussion has been well mannered.

It has, or it was until now. But I’m not complaining about the manners.

The nats are so convinced of Scottish exceptionalism that any attempt to point it out seems utterly absurd to them. Everyone knows the English are a bunch of Tories and Scots are fundamentally different, of course they do, don’t be ridiculous….

And right on cue to illustrate this:

scottish and english nationalism are diametrically opposite

I don’t think it’s exceptionalism to point out that there are differences in political opinion.

And when it comes to the key question of the day which is should we stay in the EU there is a monumental gulf in the opinions. It has to be resolved.

Of the 29% of the population who voted for remain unionist parties we have to know how many of them value the EU more highly than the Union and vice versa.

The nats are so convinced of Scottish exceptionalism that any attempt to point it out seems utterly absurd to them. Everyone knows the English are a bunch of Tories and Scots are fundamentally different, of course they do, don’t be ridiculous….

For the third time of asking, post examples or stop making accusations.

Edit: Unless the point that your trying to make is that even suggesting there is a difference in motivation between independence voters and Brexit voters is exceptionalism?

In which case, I can’t really put forward a rebuttal because the premise is pure gibberish.

eat_the_pudding

Member
seosamh
Exceptionalism works alongside nationalism.

It leads people to say things like:

I don’t think you grasp the political divergence between England and Scotland

I won’t go further in looking for examples, because I’ve spent a bit of time on here trying to point out the correlations between brexit and scexit in the form and style of the arguments deployed, and the undercurrent of “heres us and whos like us” that pervedes both english and scottish nationalism.

If you can’t see it by now you never will.

Well Brexit is a clear and fundamental current political difference.

But if you can’t see that getting Tory governments imposed on us against our will is a fundamental political difference. I really don’t know how I can explain that to you.

In the last 40 years, there’s been 13 years of Labour and 27 years of the Tories. That’s at least going to be 13 and 32 years at the end of this term, most likely 37 years, as labour will take a long time to sort itself out..

That’s a life time of uk government for me, I don’t see the pattern changing.

We(me and alot of others, might be a majority, might not be) prefer the Scottish parliament, we think it’ll suit us better.

We aren’t looking to take anyone out against their will, we want to work within the confines of democracy and persuasion.

How is this exceptionalism?

molgrips

It has, or it was until now.

There ye go, I obliged, gave you a wee bite(deliberately), your preconceptions are confirmed, you happy now?

Everyone knows the English are a bunch of Tories

We keep getting Tory governments, we aren’t making that up. We aren’t voting for it.

We keep getting Tory governments, we aren’t making that up. We aren’t voting for it.

But this is the case across the UK. This is what it looks like where I live *after* a historic swing to Tories.

But only the Scottish get to opt out because … they’re different?

Nationalism stinks.