The reason people say there is no mandate for a second referendum is because the majority of Scottish voters do not want one

TBF, we don’t know that. We’d need a referendum on whether or not to have a referendum.

The fact that Scotland wants to remain in the EU is beyond question. The only option for that is now independence so I think asking the Scottish people if they want to remain badly enough to leave the UK is reasonable.

Actually I said something similar earlier in the thread (admittedly contradicting myself in some respects). What I suggested though was waiting a few years till we see how Brexit pans out. Then we would be voting from a more informed position. At the moment feelings are running too high, on both sides.

A common complaint about Brexit was that people didn’t know exactly what they were voting for. If there were to be a second independence vote tomorrow then the same applies. Why not leave it a while and see where we are further down the line.

Alternatively why not negotiate the terms of a deal on independence first, then put that to the people? Then we all know exactly what we are voting for.

Firstly lets deal with the question you really wanted to ask. Am I a massive dick?

Yes. Yes you are.

As to your second question, it depends on whether you’re talking about pure economics or the democratic deficit. If your dreams all come true and BlowJobBob turns out to be the 2nd coming, the British Empire is restored, and we all have a different supercar parked in our mile long driveway for each day of the week it still won’t make the democratic deficit go away.

75% of people in Scotland voted for parties that either wanted to remain in the EU or were promising a 2nd referendum with a remain option. The wishes of Scottish voters do not matter to the UK.

Thank you for clearing up the first question.

You haven’t addressed the second. I’ll rephrase it.

So, as the years roll on after Brexit and the wise amongst us are proved correct, we’ve had to eat our cats and Trump signs hang from every hospital…

Does that strengthen the scotsit case or weaken it?

TBF, we don’t know that. We’d need a referendum on whether or not to have a referendum.

Indeed, and we can see the logical conclusion to that ie the neverendum!

However what evidence we do have suggests the majority of voters don’t want one. Am happy to be proved wrong though.

So, as the years roll on after Brexit and the wise amongst us are proved correct, we’ve had to eat our cats and Trump signs hang from every hospital…

Does that strengthen the scotsit case or weaken it?

If trump signs are hanging from every hospital, it most definitely strengthens the case for independence.

Please show the evidence for pro independence parties having the majority of the votes at Holyrood. Majority of MSPs yes, but that’s purely down to the fact that the pro-union vote is split between the three main parties.

The reason people say there is no mandate for a second referendum is because the majority of Scottish voters do not want one. If that changes then yes, let’s do it, but to be honest I would rather there was a change to the voting systems at both Holyrood and Westminster to being proper PR ones.

The natural conclusion of your argument is that you need 50% of the electorate to do anything.

Which is nonsense.

Incidently, polling says neither side can particularly maintain 50%… hanging on to a 5 year old result doesn’t particularly cut it tbh..

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence

Brexit is (and will become more of) a shitshow, but no matter what anyone says even with brexit right in front of us and johnson in #10, the SNP didn’t get as much % vote as it has in previous elections.

That might change, but its a terrible sign for independence.

Even the SNPs own document says that, independent and with massive (unrealistic) growth, we’d probably be out of europe for 25 years before we met the economic requirements for rejoining.
(If you disagree, then please explain why the SNPs own report didn’t make your point, and does make mine).

No waffling about wind, waves, whisky and hidden oil will change that.

The election results were fsking depressing, but at least in Scotland the NHS may be safer under SNP incompetence than under johnsons active attack, and the bright hope for the future is that a majority of people UK wide don’t support boris, and a majority in scotland don’t support the SNP.

So, nationalists abound, but not yet in the majority.

TBH Killing the first past the post electoral system would be a better use of our time than trying to kill the union (against the wished of the majority of people in scotland).

TBH Killing the first past the post electoral system

Never going to happen.

Link us up to the docs and specific section you are talking about to I have a gander?

seosamh
Does the last few years of UK politics not act as even a slight warning of making masssive decisions on the basis of a wafer thin majority?

Well, I’ve been councilling a 2030 ref for the last few years tbh. So yes, it’s absolutely had an effect on my thinking. Mostly cause I thought brexit would get beat.

But it didn’t, so I’m all for a 2023/24 referendum now.. The majority should be a good few wafers thick by then, imo.

I think this might be the most recent poll on support for a referendum.

Which of the following best summarises your view on the timing of another referendum on Scottish independence?

Of course, that’s all prior to the latest GE and the surety of Brexit.

KennyP – actually I looked up the mnumbers and you are right – its just under 50% – but still – the majority of MSPs, the majority of MPs, and polling for independence at 50+ % seems like a mandate for a second ref to me. Not a mandate for UDI but one for a second ref

My Scotland poll: Yes to independence takes the lead

The natural conclusion of your argument is that you need 50% of the electorate to do anything.

Which is nonsense.

That’s not the natural conclusion and therefore isn’t (the rather insulting term but let’s try and keep it civil) nonsense.

In many respects a government has to take decisions based on selecting one of an almost limitless series of options. In areas ranging from health, education, defence etc etc. We all accept that I think. It’s not practicable to do otherwise. Or are you suggesting we should have a referendum on every single political option?

However something like a referendum on independence is a straightforward binary yes/no choice. All I am suggesting is we respect the wishes of the majority of the voters. Or (as I mentioned above) negotiate the terms of independence first then put that to the voters.

Is that unreasonable?

Enjoy, thought y’all might have read it already?
https://www.sustainablegrowthcommission.scot/report

Spoilers; It probably doesn’t say what you think it will. It promises at least 10 years of austerity, and even with massive positive spin, its not enough to fund a country.

We’ve already shown you the evidence, there isn’t a majority either way. And attitudes are moving and will move further, and there’s a large 10% undecided.

We’ll find out next year anyhow, Boris, will stick Gove in our faces until then, while he gets on with getting brexit done, and giving some trinkets like decriminalising the TV license to the nordies for a year..

By all means keep arguing and working for what you believe in, but please try to use actual facts and economic reality to achieve it or you’re just another brexit waiting to happen to the people who can least afford it.

You cannot negotiate first and then have a ref. What could be done is a two stage ref ie one on the principle then negotiate then one on the deal

IMO the scots electorate splits pretty much into thirds on this. The ideological pro independence side for whom self determination is worth it no matter the price, the ideological unionists for whom nothing is worth independence and then the pragmatists like me in the middle. I want a progressive government and a better society. I look to countries like the Netherlands, Denmark, Sweeden and despair at the state of our country. Now I would like the UK to follow that sort of road but clearly it will not. So the only way I can get what I want is via independence for Scotland – a Scotland unhindered by the hard right xenophobic nonsense that pervades much of England

Thats my decision based on my understanding of the situation and my judgement on what will make my life and those of my fellow citizens

Its this pragmatic group in the middle that needs to be persuaded by one side or the other

eat_the_pudding

Member
Enjoy, thought y’all might have read it already?
https://www.sustainablegrowthcommission.scot/report

Spoilers; It probably doesn’t say what you think it will. It promises at least 10 years of austerity, and even with massive positive spin, its not enough to fund a country.

Have not, , but as you can see by the last page, I’m going through the process of properly re-aquainting myself with the figures, it’s been a while, so happy enough to have a gander, cheers. I’ve a decent enough grasp of the figures though, and looking to learn more.

Incidentally, the uk doesn’t have enough to fund a country either, hence the 4.5 trillion of liabilities against 2 trillion of assets! 😆

It doesn’t really seem to stop the majority of countries in the world!

TJ, the majority of MPs etc thing is, as has been said many times, down to the voting system. The independence thing vote is focussed almost exclusively (yes, I kn ow about the Greens) on the SNP whereas the pro-union vote is split largely between three main parties.

Polls can be used to show just about anything (remember that classic Yes Minister episode where Sir Humphrey shows how to get the result you want?). But since 2014 the bulk of polls have shown support for a second vote to be below 50%. So I’m afraid I have to disagree that there is a mandate for yet another referendum.

That said, if I thought another vote would bury the issue once and for all then, as I’ve said above, I’d be in favour. However on here a few years ago I asked epicyclo if he would accept the result of a second vote. He said he wouldn’t. Same with most SNP voters I have asked, though not all. The general consensus among them is that Scotland should be made to vote time and time again until we do the “correct” thing. And after that no more referenda.

Its this pragmatic group in the middle that needs to be persuaded by one side or the other

I’m that that group. I can’t stand Boris and his cronies. I am also very pro-EU. However I also like to think Britain can change and that we are better off staying together.

So you and I both agree and disagree.

kennyp

Subscriber
TJ, the majority of MPs etc thing is, as has been said many times, down to the voting system. The independence thing vote is focussed almost exclusively (yes, I kn ow about the Greens) on the SNP whereas the pro-union vote is split largely between three main parties.

You seem to be equating vote for a party as a direct 1 to 1 for or against independence support. It’s not that simple.

See the link I posted earlier, today labour are even considering supporting a ref as they know they are constantly haemorrhaging support to the SNP over the issue.

You seem to be equating vote for a party as a direct 1 to 1 for or against independence support. It’s not that simple.

See the link I posted earlier, today labour are even considering supporting a ref as they know they are constantly haemorrhaging support to the SNP over the issue.

Agreed, it’s not that simple. However the only firm evidence we have to go on are the election results and they consistently show no support for yet another vote.

If Labour do change their minds and people vote for that then fine, no problem. But until then……

I can’t find the link but I remember reading recently that Nicola Sturgeon said that a Yes vote in a future referendum need not be binding and could be overturned in a confirmatory referendum.

I think this could be the way they plan on going. A first referendum with a straight Yes/No option and then a confirmatory referendum on the withdrawl agreement.

Interesting Kenny – I had you down and an ideological unionist as that is how you present. I guess you are arguing sceptically or devils advocate?

I too would like a fairer UK – but that is never going to happen is it? We now live in a UK that is a elected dictatorship with the tories controlling most of the media, being able to outspend all other parties and setting out to gerrymander their advantage further.

So for me the only question remaining is ” is an independent Scotland viable?” to which the answer must be yes. Denmark, Ireland, Netherlands, Sweden. finland all can manage – why can we not?

If Labour do change their minds and people vote for that then fine, no problem. But until then……

I’m fairly patient tbh.

Kenny – also the other smaller parties that got a few % of the vote – also pro independence mainly.

kennyp

So I’m afraid I have to disagree that there is a mandate for yet another referendum.

Ah, the convolutions of Unionism when faced with democratic results they don’t like.

The Tories with about 60% of the seats in the UK now are acknowledged as having a clear mandate for Brexit.

Just about everyone accepts this.

The Westminster controlled parties in Scotland campaigned on a simple message “Vote for us to stop IndyRef2” and the SNP then won 80% of the seats in Scotland and the Westminster parties all lost seats in Scotland.

How is that not even better than a clear Brexit mandate?

However on here a few years ago I asked epicyclo if he would accept the result of a second vote. He said he wouldn’t. Same with most SNP voters I have asked, though not all.

Are people who support Labour and the LibDems now expected to give up supporting Labour etc because the Tories won this election? So why should I stop supporting what I believe is best for my country? Independence is a process.

Agreed, it’s not that simple. However the only firm evidence we have to go on are the election results and they consistently show no support for yet another vote.

I’m going to keep hammering this point because I think it’s important. 75% of people in Scotland voted for remain parties or parties in favour of having a 2nd referendum with a remain option.

The fact that Scotland wants to remain is beyond argument and I really don’t see any way the wishes of those people can be respected without an independence referendum.

BruceWee

Member
I can’t find the link but I remember reading recently that Nicola Sturgeon said that a Yes vote in a future referendum need not be binding and could be overturned in a confirmatory referendum.

She’s absolutely against that. Straight up refused in an interview or a debate, canny mind.

The Tories with about 60% of the seats in the UK now are acknowledged as having a clear mandate for Brexit. Just about everyone accepts this.

I get where kennyp is coming from with this. Two wrongs don’t make a right.

However, we’re playing a rigged game. If we try to play fair it’s just going to end in tears. I’ll go along with the narrative that the SNP has a mandate for another referendum because that’s the game we’re playing but I’m not comfortable with it.

I’m much more comfortable emphasising the 75% voting for remain parties.

She’s absolutely against that. Straight up refused in an interview or a debate, canny mind.

Found it:

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/17917490.sturgeon-confirms-yes-vote-independence-reversed/

But yeah, I also found articles where she seemed to rule it out so who knows.

epicyclo, you must know that % of vote is more important indicator of support for a referendum than number of seats in a FPTP election. I realise that superficially looks better for your argument but its disingenuous. In scotland particularly there was no downside to voting snp in europe AND have
independence. But far less than 50% of people did that.

Why do you think that is?

Johnsons election victory gives him the ability to do brexit but not a mandate.

BruceWee, Don’t confuse peoples desire to be part of one union (the EU) as a desire to leave another (the UK).

I think the next set of opinion polls on this will be interesting. I would be very suprised if it is not a significant majority for independence

The Westminster controlled parties in Scotland campaigned on a simple message “Vote for us to stop IndyRef2” and the SNP then won 80% of the seats in Scotland

The Westminster controlled parties in Scotland campaigned on a simple message “Vote for us to stop IndyRef2” and as a result got 55% of the vote, a clear democratic message.

Fixed that for you. Or does democracy only work one way?

So why should I stop supporting what I believe is best for my country?

You should certainly continue to support whatever you like. What I am saying however is that the result of a second vote (if there is one) should be respected for at least the now proverbial generation.

BruceWee, Don’t confuse peoples desire to be part of one union (the EU) as a desire to leave another (the UK).

I’m not. I’m saying the vast majority in Scotland voted to remain in the EU, both in the referendum and in all further elections. It’s beyond question.

If there is a way to do that that doesn’t involve independence then I’m all ears.

If the only option to stay in the EU is independence then the SNP and every other remain party have a duty to put that question to the Scottish people.

I know its hard, but can you imagine a situation where short term pish and lies led to a referendum victory, but then additional information led to a majority being against it by the time it happened?

Is that really the “better” country you would want scotland to be?

Born in lies and perpetuated by ignoring the views of the people of scotland (whose opinion was the most important thing in the world a few years before?)

A small scale (50%+1) referendum will get you that and it would not be a good thing.

scexit on those terms would be brexit squared.

Interesting Kenny – I had you down and an ideological unionist as that is how you present. I guess you are arguing sceptically or devils advocate?

If I had to describe my politics as anything it would be the old fashioned one nation conservatism. I am probably jut slightly right of centre. I have voted Conservative in the past but at the moment I wouldn’t even consider it. Boris is a lying two faced hard right thug. The party closest to my own views at the moment are the Lib Dems. In fact if it wasn’t for the independence thing I would actually consider voting SNP. I respect Nicola as a person and many of their other policies I quite agree with.

I am also not one of these people who think independence for Scotland would be a disaster. There is a case to be made for it. However I just don’t think the case is strong enough. Breaking up a 300 year old union because a particular party is in power temporarily doesn’t make sense to me.

kennyp, do you believe there is still a chance the UK can remain in the EU?

If so, how do you see it happening?

kennyp, do you believe there is still a chance the UK can remain in the EU?

If so, how do you see it happening?

I think the chances are very slim. I was as depressed as anyone on Thursday night. I think the best we can now hope for, in the short term, is a deal where we are part in part out. My hope is that a few years down the line we reapply, though that might still be a decade or more away.

If the only option to REJOIN the EU is independence then the SNP and every other remain party have a duty to put that question to the Scottish people..

FIFY