2% inflation by year-end?
In your dreams.

Well admittedly I am a simple soul who doesn’t understand complicated things. I tend to rely on others.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/feb/22/uk-inflation-could-fall-below-2-citi-forecasts

The UK isn’t even technically in recession! The lowest levels of unemployment for almost 50 years!

And millions of those people in work depend on benefits – you’re stuck in the 80’s, unemployment numbers aren’t the be all * end all anymore.

unemployment numbers aren’t the be all * end all anymore.

That is exactly my point. Unemployment isn’t even an issue these days. The crisis is not an economic crisis, it is a political crisis.

It is about growing inequality. That is why Liz Truss’s “trickle down” policies were such a disaster for the Tories. And why the Tories are in such a political mess right now.

I think that the difference to the current situation than the thatcher years and 2008 is that in those cases a minority were badly affected and became marginalised from society, while the rest paid lip service to their plight but ultimately just got on with their lives. The current situation is affecting everyone (apart from the fabulously wealthy) so they can’t pretend it is someone else’s problem.

50 years of neolibrilism and austerity put personal finances in the balance, people thought they were doing ok debt and rising house prices masked the structural problems with the way the economy was being run. It was easy for those with a small stake to think they had done something special to gain a stake, and blame the marginalised for being weak and stupid, but it was really all just luck and opportunity.

Then with not very much pressure at all, just a short period of higher inflation, the façade fell. Living pay check to pay check, struggling to pay bills became normal for the majority, it wasn’t just for the “weak idiots” anymore it is everyone’s problem now.

My son and his partner are both working full time but are struggling financially.

Nursery costs for their 2 year old, rent has gone up and will do again I’m sure later this year.

I’m having to help them financially every month and the amount I can help them out is getting more limited as I’m not immune to the rising costs of pretty much everything.

The thing is, I am fully aware that we are in a far better condition than millions of families out there.

There must be so much suffering and worry hidden behind the front doors of millions of households at the moment.

The crisis is not an economic crisis, it is a political crisis.

It’s both. The brakes have been put on the UK economy, and the political choice is to make sure the working person pays the price of that. See public sector strikes.

^^ I agree, it’s both.

This is primarily a political crisis. The economic situation isn’t fantastic, obviously, it very rarely is, and straight after an unprecedented pandemic which brought everything to a standstill, plus war in Europe, now is no exception.

But to focus on the economy is to do the Tories a huge favour, they are often more than happy to do precisely that. Thatcher certainly was, as was David Cameron. Any excuse for austerity.

The problems/crisis/issues with one of the very richest nations on earth is political. It is about inequality and distribution of wealth.

The problems/crisis/issues with one of the very richest nations on earth is political. It is about inequality and distribution of wealth.

Not sure it’s very useful to differentiate political and economic issues. They’re so intertwined you can’t separate them. Inequality will (or already has) become an economic problem as the asset owning classes, and the top 1% in particular, horde their money rather than spend it into the economy. The govt then need to take up the slack which they’re unwilling to do so we get austerity, which fuels stagnation and recession, and then further political upheaval from the resentment and anger felt by the majority of voters. It’s a downward spiral which can only be broken by a govt (and govts globally) willing to face down the top 1% and reclaim the billions/trillions and put it to use for the greater good. The likelihood of that happening is probably less than something else occuring to force the issue (usually war).

Is Sunak’s household in the top 1%? Just asking…

Is Sunak’s household in the top 1%? Just asking…

And Starmers, and the vast majority of labour MPs. Hence why I say it’s unlikely. 🙂

If I was to predict the future I would say we’re heading for a social breakdown situation with populist politicians gaining power. Probably after a Starmer govt demonstrates its unwillingness and/or inability to change much. I was in the pub with some work colleagues last night. 3 white middle class men with degree educations and responsible(ish) jobs. All I heard for two hours was seething resentment against wokeism, how white men are the oppressed minority, how the liberal elite are trying to destroy the country. And these were people who have never been very politically interested in the past. It was quite eye-opening.

The UK isn’t even technically in recession! The lowest levels of unemployment for almost 50 years

1) yet but it hasn’t grown for years now. In fact the only time growth figures ticked up was towards the end of the pandemic when government spending on medical stuff shot up.

2) unemployment is higher than you think. It’s probably double the official figures because of the way it’s calculated excluding certain situations.

3) With interest rates going up this adds to inflation as the price level increases. The UK and USA aren’t getting this

4) recession is just about holding off which is surprising to me but when it comes it will likely be a big whack.

The central banks were expecting to engineer a recession through unemployment and thus slow the economy. But it’s working back to front currently.

Don’t forget macroeconomics tracks wider trends and we’re simply experiencing things on a small time frame.

We’re in a very contradictory time with monetarists in charge of decisions and fiscal stimulus being given a wide birth.

It’s definitely coming home to roost but just not yet. Just keep an eye on the markets they keep pumping just after Powell does his stuff in the USA.

The rich are swilling it.

Dollar strength shoots up occasionally but then money goes back into risk-on assets.

All adding to inflation currently.

Neoliberalism works for just enough people to keep the methods in play.

‘could’ is doing a lot of heavy lifting in that Guardian article.
Even if inflation does fall to 2% by year end that will do nothing to change the fact that higher prices will be baked in by then so most of the population will see no benefit.

Also we currently use unemployment as a backstop.

Unemployment is currently preferred over inflation. That’s criminal.

The government could use a job guarantee as a back stop and pay a wage to surplus labour to do things that we need that the private sector simply isn’t doing. It’s not as if there isn’t a shortage of things that need fixing.

You then tax the wealthy to control inflation and limit their ability to suck up resources.

could’ is doing a lot of heavy lifting in that Guardian article.
Even if inflation does fall to 2% by year end that will do nothing to change the fact that higher prices will be baked in by then so most of the population will see no benefit.

Inflation won’t drop to 2% until they stop raising interest rates.

And even then 2% was ridiculously arbitrary.

USA based but applies here.

Funny thing about the Fed's trying to whip inflation by raising the policy interest rate: If it doesn't result in a job-killing recession, it creates MORE INFLATION. Here's why… (cc. @stephaniekelton)

— Dan Alpert (@DanielAlpert) February 20, 2023

and the vast majority of labour MPs

No Labour MP I’ve met has been close to being in the 1%.

I can’t find wealth figures, but here’s some earnings gossip..

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jan/08/tory-mps-receive-152m-second-jobs-since-2019-election

While 54% of MPs are Conservatives, they account for 89% of external income over the last three years. . That includes Geoffrey Cox, who has earned £2.2m from legal work in the last three years while serving as Tory MP for Torridge and West Devon.

The former attorney general received much of it for his work advising the tax haven of the British Virgin Islands, which is being investigated by the UK government due to corruption concerns.

John Redwood, Andrew Mitchell and Chris Grayling were among other prominent Tory MPs to be paid more than £200,000 in additional income since 2019.

The Labour MP with the highest outside income was David Lammy, the shadow foreign secretary. He has taken home £202,000 since the last general election on top of his main salary, with the biggest source of income being fees for presenting a weekly show on radio station LBC. The only other Labour MP in the top 20 was Jess Phillips, who has earned £162,000 in the last three years from media appearances and writing books – including £5,000 for being a guest on Have I Got News for You.

No Labour MP I’ve met has been close to being in the 1%.

According to this the top 1% is at least 3.6M. You’re right in that most labour MPs won’t have that but a lot of them will and most others not far off or in the top 5 percentiles. Either way it doesn’t give much confidence that they’ll be motivated to change anything when they themselves benefit from the status quo.

You’re right that Starmer’s household will be in the 1% (as is Corbyn’s… but he’s not a Labour MP now). Very few other Labour MPs will be though… and you could probably add the wealth of all the Labour MPs together and not even get close to the wealth of Sunak’s household. If extreme wealth breeds suspicion of motivations (and understanding)… the suspicion of Sunak should be off the chart compared to other MPs, especially the ones that aren’t Tory.

I see our resident revolutionaries are back onto their favourite subject… moaning about Labour MP’s 🙄

For some context, Boris Johnsons earnings since leaving Downing Street have just passed the £5 million mark. And he’s a peasant compared to Rishi

Boris Johnson criticised for making millions while rarely appearing in Commons

I see our resident revolutionaries are back onto their favourite subject…

Yeah how we fix our broken political and economic system, as opposed to the soap opera of who is prime minister and how rich they may or may not be. 🙄

The lowest levels of unemployment for almost 50 years

I think that’s less a positive aspect of the economy and more like a symptom of labour shortage that is actually harming the economy, no?

Harming the economy? Well low unemployment is supposed to stoke inflation and cause the economy to overheat.

Thatcher certainly used mass unemployment to control inflation/prices. She strongly believed that inflation was far more important than unemployment, unsurprisingly.

Weak trade unions and anti-labour legislation means that low unemployment isn’t translating into higher wages, as might be expected. In fact wages are being very effectively suppressed and are nowhere keeping up with inflation.

They are certainly not the cause of inflation. And recent price rises aren’t really caused by inflation anyway – it is simply a price adjustment caused by a massive hike in energy costs, it is not sustainable.

And any economic model which requires high levels of unemployment to stay healthy is clearly a shite economic model. So your question is largely irrelevant to me.

Where would we be without the Daily Telegraph telling us the truth?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/tax/news/how-jeremy-corbyns-hard-left-high-tax-manifesto-delivered/

“Conservative governments under both Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak have adopted a string of tax policies proposed in Jeremy Corbyn’s 2019 manifesto, Telegraph analysis has found”.

Where would we be without the Daily Telegraph telling us the truth?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/tax/news/how-jeremy-corbyns-hard-left-high-tax-manifesto-delivered/

“Conservative governments under both Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak have adopted a string of tax policies proposed in Jeremy Corbyn’s 2019 manifesto, Telegraph analysis has found”.

So it’s been Corbyn running the country all along – just like a good old Scooby-Doo mystery.

He’d have gotten Away with it if it wasn’t for those pesky kids.

To be honest, did everyone not realise that the ill fitting fat suit and the mop for hair was obviously a disguise.

I see our resident revolutionaries are back onto their favourite subject… moaning about Labour MP’s

And the resident Centrist can never see any criticism of anything other than a blindingly obvious Tory shambles.

NEW Chopper’s Politics Podcast: @YvetteCooperMP – A Labour government will aim to stop all small boat crossings’ https://t.co/6FDFCecdrI

— Christopher Hope📝 (@christopherhope) March 10, 2023

Damn thought I’d posted a TG article about the Tories.

And any economic model which requires high levels of unemployment to stay healthy is clearly a shite economic model. So your question is largely irrelevant to me.

That’s the outmoded Philips curve for you.

The back stop should be a job guarantee. So instead of putting people on the dole you offer them a job/training to fix knackered state stuff paid for the government – stuff the private sector is woeful in.

With every passing appearance in the commons or in the media Yvette Cooper transforms a little bit more into Anne Widdecombe. Won’t be long til she’s being dragged along the floor on Strictly.

So sunak has just gifted £500 million to the French Gov for nothing of any value or relevance.
Try selling that and the fact there is no agreement on returning migrants to France to the tory frothers.
Recession is looming, no brexit benefits to be seen but we gift half a billion to the French.
From Macron to sunak…Rishi, mon ami, you are very welcome to visit again – and please bring another cheque!

They should put that on a big red bus – ‘Why don’t we give France £500M’ 🤣

No doubt tomorrows newspapers will be crowing about Gary Lineker taking a MoTD time out instead.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-64916446

Anyone else think that France will be laughing all the way to the bank?!
There’s probably already a French ministerial piss up in full swing on British taxpayers money as they fall about laughing at the stupid Brexity British.

Can’t say I blame them.

I suspect that the money won’t be handed over if France doesn’t provide the extra 500 officers and a new detention centre as promised.

Although the Tory government will be history by the time it is completely anyway.

Any Questions R4 8pm today – panellists are Alison McGovern labour shadow minister, chris philp tory mp/ex minister, Enver Solomon british refugee council, richard tice (shudder).
McGovern & Solomon v philp & tice.
Should be interesting.
Repeated tomorrow after 1pm news.
Could also have posted this to the Lineker thread.

I suspect that the money won’t be handed over if France doesn’t provide the extra 500 officers and a new detention centre as promised.

Still nice to have a load of local jobs created including some building work and have someone else pick up the tab.

Can I call that a cheeky little Brexit bonus 🙂

Seems Sunak has alienated his base giving £500m to Macron going by the comments in the Fail.

To counter the Fail comments page, sunak will be hailed in the Elysee Palace as a great friend to France.
Treble Dom Perignons all round!

The very latest opinion poll, it was conducted yesterday and today so well after all the “Stop The Boats” Tory media fanfare had hit the headlines:

1/ Nothing warms the cockles more than a voter intention poll, we think. Hardly a blizzard of change this week, but Labour has hit the 50% mark yet again:

🔴 Lab: 50% (+5)
🔵 Con: 26% (NC)
🟠 LD: 7% (-4)
🟡 SNP: 4% (NC)
⚪ Ref: 6% (NC)
🟢 Green: 5% (-1) pic.twitter.com/n4X6g1pK0e

— Omnisis (@Omnisis) March 10, 2023

‘Stop The Boats’ doesn’t seem to be helping them much.

It reminds me of how with everything stacked against him Zac Goldsmith made a desperate attempt to win the London mayoral election by launching a racist campaign against Sadiq Khan.

It spectacularly backfired on the Tory candidate and just exposed him as a loser scraping the gutter for votes, just like the current PM.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/07/top-conservatives-condemn-zac-goldsmiths-disgusting-mayoral-campaign

Good to see no gain for Tory and votes going from Green/LD to Labour is also good as they are ‘better’ votes if ending this tory shit show is the goal however much I like the Green Party.

This uptick in growth is laughable.

It’s still negative growth November – Jan. You get odd months where you get a small bump every now and gain.

Overall unless a trend develops things are flatlining/ declining – have been for ages.

Easy to shunt everything on to 30p. (MSM lol)

Getting There.

You won't see this in the MSM.

👇👇 pic.twitter.com/Hpmyb5EgfW

— Lee Anderson MP (@LeeAndersonMP_) March 10, 2023