If the wife does one first then the mother-in-law goes in (apart from our spaniel she’s the only one who doesn’t gag when following the wife) then it’s going to put the room out of action for the rest of the night.

There is no suggestion that these power cuts will only occur during peak periods. And how can they be sure of demand in whatever area the day before?

There are two separate issues here I think. Forecasting might show we are at risk of not quite meeting demand at peak times. So NG uses a number of tools to reduce demand, calls on the contingency coal contracts etc. This is where from November they’re suggesting we can use this new DFS service and agree not to put our washing machines/dryers on, charge EVs etc. at peak times and get a payment.

The other scenario is if the gas crisis kicks off and we lose CGT generation, so can’t meet demand for a longer period. This is when interruptions to customer supplies are necessary and the rota disconnections come in. This is designed to spread the pain between everybody in 3-hour chunks.

NG has a team of demand forecasters working all this out.

Probably a total over reaction from me but I was in Halfords today and made an impulse buy of a wee gas stove and some gas canister so I can have a brew etc should the worst happen. Probably never be used (for blackouts anyway) and I thought for £30 it gives a bit of peace of mind.

When  buying it I felt like one of those toilet paper hoarders at the start of covid ☺️. The bloke at the till said they are selling loads of them just now for this very reason (might be a good time to get some halfords shares🤣)

No smart meter. My smugness is intact. I wouldn’t worry about going without electricity for a few hours, might make me read a book instead of surf the net……

By candle light too.

Make sure it’s either a romance or a gothic horror.

made an impulse buy of a wee gas stove and some gas canister so I can have a brew etc should the worst happen.

You can’t manage without a cup of tea for three hours?

If I feel that I might not be able to cope when I get the text message warning I will get a flask, hot water bottle, sandwiches, and various snacks, all ready in plenty of time.

No smart meter. My smugness is intact.

Makes no difference? Rota disconnects are done in blocks by the DNO on their networks AFAIK if that’s what you meant…

@ernielynch

5% cut?

My non expert understanding is that the power cuts are supposed to cut peak power demand if it can’t be met.So yes the 3 hour blackouts would reduce peak demand.

However if people then catch up on cooking, washing machine use etc later the overall demand would not be reduced much. Just smoothed out over a longer period.

If you look at gridwatch.co.uk it shows demand. Yesterday for example demand varied between 21Gw and 31Gw. So demand that was deferred by power cuts could be delayed until later.

A long read but this blog post about the whole situation is interesting.

NG ESO’s winter outlook still understates risks and focuses on demand reduction

So I think I’ve figured out how to connect a diy gas line to my car’s lpg tank and run a jury rigged propane heater off it. So I’m either going to come through the blackouts lovely and warm, or entirely exploded.

Unfortunately I don’t think I can run the fridge or the computer on lpg.

My non expert understanding is that the power cuts are supposed to cut peak power demand if it can’t be met.

No. If customer supply interruptions are needed, it means we can’t meet demand for a longer period. Not just the peak.

https://www.nationalgrideso.com/research-publications/winter-outlook

Scenario 1 and 2 in the winter outlook are useful.

and a FAQ on how the rota disconnects work with some useful tips…

https://www.spenergynetworks.co.uk/pages/rota_load_faq.aspx

Like I said, I wrote the rota disconnection schedule for one of the DNOs in 2007 when NGC couldn’t supply part of Sheffield.

We did it by 11kV feeder talking the expected load on that feeder into account.

We did not do it the way SPEN describe, mainly because we were concentrating more on domestic customers than businesses.  There are good reasons why a responsible business would do that.

However, I think the SPEN notes are probably aimed at a national not regional response. Personally I’d still be worrying more about the old and infirm, the medically electrically dependent and other vulnerable people, than businesses that can alter their hours or if they are so critical should have some standby arrangements.

Incidentally an 8x3hour starting point is going to be devastating for some people.  If you’re down the pub with me I might offer some slightly cutting opinions on that.

Whilst I utterly despise this current shower of shiiite that are in charge, and would happily throw them into the furnace of a power station to finally make something useful from their self serving arses, this energy problem is something that has been coming for 30+ years – basically since Thatcher etc Al decided to break up the CEGB and ‘let the markets decide’. Maybe that’s exactly what we should be doing now. Time for people to reap what they have sowed for repeatedly voting in shorttermist people.

There has been absolutely no strategy for energy supply from the government.
Not sanctioning or building any new nuclear for 30 years. Not building Sizewell C in the 1990s straight off and after a Sizewell B. Too hung up on the bad PR it would get. And **** the need for a stable energy supply under our own control.
The stupid dash for (a quick buck) gas, and killing off the coal mines for political gain.

For the past 30 years, by coincidence our heavy industrial base has been eradicated at about the same rate as the energy generation capacity. Two wrongs making a ‘just about got away with it’. Well, til now.

Putin has just brought it to a head and exposed the total lack of planning or strategy from the Gov for 30+ years.
Same goes for the water supply too. Still allowing 20+% piiish out before it gets to where it was supposed to. Still not having built any meaningful storage for 25 years. The last proper reservoir build was Carsington.

Yeah that SPEN FAQ describes a national response.

Still the wrong way to do it. Speaking as one who has (which puts me in a very small number in this country).

In fairness it wasn’t markets that decided that new generation would be wind power. It was subsidies by various governments to push wind power. Which when the chips are down needs near 100% backup.

If we get power cuts it will be on a day of low wind generation.

@Jamze

I’m not sure I understand why if power cuts are needed because total generation capacity plus imports can’t meet demand the cuts would not be likely to be in the evening peak. If peak demand was 55Gw and max supply was 54Gw surely supply would meet demand most of the day?

This BBC link also says cuts most like over peak periods

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63155827

That’s incorrect IMO.

We could find a GW/reduce demand by a GW, no need for customer interruptions. In reality, we’d operate with more margin than that anyway.

I think that’s what igm is getting at. Can’t we be more targeted with rotas than the big national one that is all or nothing

robertajobb
Full Member

Whilst I utterly despise this current shower of shiiite that are in charge, and would happily throw them into the furnace of a power station to finally make something useful from their self serving arses, this energy problem is something that has been coming for 30+ years – basically since Thatcher etc Al decided to break up the CEGB and ‘let the markets decide’.

While true, one of the biggest issues right now is the loss of storage capacity, and that’s a recent occurance. While the reason that occured goes right back to the privatisation of british gas, since it was Centrica’s decision to close the Rough storage facility- about 70% of our total national storage capacity- it’s a decision that happened under the current government.

Centrica closed Rough as it was aging and apparently couldn’t be run safely or at a reasonable price- though it’s being reopened so apparently whatever safety issues it had have mysteriously gone away. And re the price, it’s almost as though companies that can sell gas at a flexible price and pass cost changes to the customer, don’t have enough incentive to stockpile it when it’s cheap.

So it’s a mix of long term systemic/idealogical failure, and short term specific/subsequent failure made possible by the former. Obviously storage doesn’t mafgically create more gas but it reduces pricing issues and short term supply issues. Of course the tories are spinning this as an argument for fracking.

@irc gives you an idea of the rota. It’s 24/7. We are block S so level 1 gives us outages at 3:30 Fri, 12:30 Sat and 15:30 Sun. Add more levels and the number of outages/week goes up.

Some detail on Rough storage here. Only being opened at a quarter of prev capacity. Question as to how much will be ready for this winter.

Re-opening Rough: what are the prospects for gas storage this winter?

Sorry for continually quoting from the same blog but it gives more detail than the normal media and is not too technical.

Seems generally informed and accurate.

That’s Kathryn Porter’s blog. She had a few not-great appearances on GB News-type shows, but the BLOG is interesting.

So do our LNG terminals compensate for having less storage than many of our neighbours?

A 3 hour power cut is really not a big deal, as I mention I had one just last week. If I was forewarned about it then it would have been even easer to deal with as the only impact is those working at home as living for 3 hours without electric is very easy (and better in the daytime as no need for lighting and more options just to go out and do something)

I have been getting power cuts for 20 years and the only annoying part about them is that there is no warning so not ready with torches, candles, haven’t cooked anything etc,.

Whilst it seems that 99% of the forum would be fine for a power cut I’d like to reiterate the amount of vulnerable people who might not be.

Maybe I’m reading too much into the situation but it wouldn’t surprise me if they’re talking up the prospect of power cuts as much as possible to soften opposition to fracking the shit out of the country 🤔

As I already pointed out its National Grid making the warnings and they have no interest in that.

I was wondering about the remote disconnect mentioned above, only learned that it was a remote feature of smart meters recently. I wonder if that would make it easier to get the grid back online after a collapse (or prevent a blackout) if they could bulk disconnect households.

They can likely do that at your local 11kV sub-station. It seems a lot more sensible to rely on a single node serving multiple properties than multiple nodes serving single properties.

So I think I’ve figured out how to connect a diy gas line to my car’s lpg tank and run a jury rigged propane heater off it. So I’m either going to come through the blackouts lovely and warm, or entirely exploded.

Well let us know the outcome and then we’ll know if you hooked up to the liquid feed from the tank, or from the vapour feed from the vapouriser 🙂