This next 10 years will be interesting. There are a lot of existing medium- and long-term issues that will become clearer in this time.
In general, I think the UK outside our doors will look and feel very similar. Things that actually make a day-to-day difference take quite some time to change and even the bigger stuff tends to compound rather than blast into ubiquity.
It goes without saying that economic, political and social issues will refer to and from Brexit. It’s difficult to evidence a prediction, but I suspect higher corporate interests and connections will prevail over any tendency to grossly stuff this up. Society will probably reflect in 10 years’ time, however, that the effort wasn’t really worth it: the more ardent Brexiters will be disappointed with the lack of true independence and Remainers will point out that things seem very similar, just with more paperwork and influence now decidedly from the sidelines. If it had been re-run in 2026, the Referendum would be won by Remain – due in no small part to demographic change.
London will remain Europe’s premier financial centre and some emerging specialist / niche industries will flourish. Economic inequalities, however, will deepen due to a backlog of infrastructure and educational underinvestment coupled with the strong emergence of automation. A small group of people will tell the computers what to do and live an ever richer life; the growing number of poor will specialise in roles that automation and AI can’t touch. I expect this will lead to more people in more part-time, caring, creative and arts roles – just ones that are less likely to pay well.
The short-lived Corbyn government of 2019-2023 will briefly ride a wave of changed attitudes, which turned eventually against austerity when it was clear that public debt had increased enormously, with very little to show for it. The electorate will warm to the idea that investment in “stuff” (rail, road, education) is better.
This change won’t have come soon enough to have had some effect on the metrics: armed forces capable in fewer circumstances, huge backlogs of public capital investment and lots of smaller things like overgrown parks, rubbish on the street etc. The Corbyn government will be as reforming as any before it, but will quickly become ungovernable due to a slim majority and unresolved tensions within Labour. However, it will lay foundations that – like in 1945 – are recognisable for generations. The Conservatives will have largely rejected austerity, but will be tainted for a generation by having the misfortune to enact Brexit. Resurgent Lib Dems will therefore support a minority Labour administration for the 2024-28 years.
Public finances will therefore be in mixed shape in 2028. The tax take will be up and the deficit quite possibly closed, but the overall debt level will be very high (most of it due to the “wasted years” of 2010-19, with very little to show for it).
Private finances will continue to drift negatively for some time, supported by ongoing low interest rates. The Bank of England and other Western central banks will have lost the ability to use interest rates as a tool and will instead focus efforts on controlling other aspects.
Shared ownership and “rental” (related to the above) will be commonplace. Demand for cars will have dropped as electric cars and semi-automation emerge more strongly, but they will not take off as fast as expected, nor replace the lost sales of conventional cars. In cities, companies like Uber will offer more comprehensive packages that replace the need for households to own cars. This will not be ubiquitous, however, meaning that some areas and groups will still need direct access to vehicles. Jobs in driving industries will be reducing, not because of robo-vehicles as expected, but because of better abilities to predict where demand will occur and for fleets to service this demand more efficiently (see 2017’s Amazon same-day model).
Cities themselves will continue to develop with central areas in high demand. Outlying and some suburban areas will become decidedly run-down in places, especially around former retail parks – many of which will be derelict within the next 10 years. The trend of golf course closures will also accelerate.
Social attitudes will generally continue to liberalise by most meaures and, in general, will recognise every greater diversity. While the Church of England will expectedly continue its decline, so too will Muslim denominations and other formal faiths. Extremism of all kinds will remain, but not take hold widely. King Charles will abdicate after a short, pensive and underappreciated reign – replaced by William earlier than expected.
Finally, cycling will be just fine. The basic human instincts to travel, have fun and be sociable will continue to underpin a reasonable level of popularity. MTB’ing may become less popular that at present, but will continue an overall hold and will adapt to emerging tastes.
So, overall I think it’s a mixed bag. We will still live in one of the world’s richest and most creative countries – and deal as ably as any other with the diversity and enormity of change.
