Osbourne says no to currency union.

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  • Osbourne says no to currency union.
  • Premier Icon honeybadgerx
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    Slightly off topic but ladybadger just came out with something that made me giggle… ‘If we get independence do you think we could get google renamed as Dougal?’

    Premier Icon epicyclo
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    honeybadgerx – Member
    Slightly off topic but ladybadger just came out with something that made me giggle… ‘If we get independence do you think we could get google renamed as Dougal?’

    We won’t be getting any internet from the south after independence.

    The leaders of the Tory, LibDem, Labour, and UKIP have said a firm NO to any electrons or magic internet stuff crossing the border.

    The SNP have a plan B though, and our internet will be conducted by semaphore and Aldiss lamps mounted on all the wind turbines. Apparently optical internet is the latest technology, so we’ll be laughing.

    We will have our own search engine called Weardafukizit.

    Premier Icon honeybadgerx
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    our internet will be conducted by semaphore and Aldiss lamps mounted on all the wind turbines

    To be honest I get about 0.4mb/s at the moment so that may well be an improvement!

    Premier Icon jambalaya
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    Been away for a few days, 1700+ posts wow …

    bencooper – Member
    The point really is that Standard Life back plans for a currency union.

    Should someone tell Osborne?

    Thanks for the video above – ’twas interesting and amusing – note the part about EU being inundated with small nations wanting to join.

    Standard Life: IMO this should be read as a big negative for an independent Scotland, basically SL has said unless there is a formal currency union it’s going to leave Scotland (that statement by the way puts zero pressure on Osbourne to agree to a union, in fact it’s an argument not to as SL will relocate to the UK). SL has said this as it’s business (most clients outside Scotland including me 😉 ) makes no sense being located in a country with either the euro, a Scottish pound or a British pound but with no union.

    Premier Icon aracer
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    I wonder whether they’ve costed converting all the .uk domains to .sco

    bencooper
    Member

    Thought of that – it’s why I’ve got http://www.kinetics.us 😉

    ninfan
    Member

    ‘If we get independence do you think we could get google renamed as Dougal?’

    Only if when you search “Hamish” it comes up with ‘you’ll have had your tea!’

    konabunny
    Member

    basically SL has said unless there is a formal currency union it’s going to relocate… as it’s business (most clients outside Scotland including me ) makes no sense being located in a country with either the euro, a Scottish pound or a British pound but with no union.

    1) that’s not what SL said

    2) the more of its business is outside Scotland, the less it matters what currency Scotland uses. Explain how SL would significantly be affected by Scotland using a euro, new currency or non-union pound.

    Premier Icon jambalaya
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    @kona – 1) SL said they where preparing a contingency plan to relocate to the UK in the event Scotland voted yes and there was no currency union. That reads to me very clearly that a yes vote means they leave. Why would Scorland vote for independence then keep a currency and interest rates it has no control over. It may be “management speak” but I read it clearly that they’d be relocating.

    2) It makes very little sense for a company to have most of its earnings in one currency (the pound) then have most of its cost base (employee wages etc) in another (Scottish pound, euro) – that to me is one reason but to the people whose opinion really matter is the SL management and they’ve told us already they are preparing a contingency plan due to the threat to their business.

    konabunny
    Member

    1) that’s not what SL said

    2) SL and every other export-oriented business already does this – look at all the countries in which it operates in currencies other than the pound. The costs of a company the affected by way more than currency. And in any case none of that would change if Scotland carries on usig the pound, in union or otherwise.

    Premier Icon jambalaya
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    @kona – yes it was what the company said, I’ve read all the direct quotes and the various press releases. SL believes an independent Scotland without a currency union with the UK is a material risk to its business. Your export analogy doesn’t make sense in this case. Retail financial services rely on relatively thin margins, an adverse move between the Scottish currency and the pound would wipe out its profits very quickly, that’s exactly why they’ve put this contingency plan in place.

    zomg
    Member

    Standard Life said the same thing before the devolution vote in 1992. They might well decide it’s in their interests to leave, but the board of SL has already been seen to be dishonest when it comes to political involvement.

    Premier Icon Northwind
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    jambalaya – Member

    @kona – yes it was what the company said, I’ve read all the direct quotes and the various press releases.

    Perhaps you’d care to quote one then? SL have said they’ve prepared contingency plans but as far as I can see they’ve not said what you claim- that they will leave Scotland if there is no currency union.

    Premier Icon jambalaya
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    SL pointed out the material issues which remain unclear including currency, regulatory framework and whether Scotland would join the eu on the quoted schedule. All of these are material risks to the company which they are seeking to mitigate by preparing a plan (and setting up the relevant uk companies) to move to the uk in the event of a yes vote. All 3 UK political parties have said there will be no currency union. SL have said they will move their business if there is a material risk to it post the referendum, the currency issue alone ticks that box.

    Premier Icon jambalaya
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    Before the next Oscar is awarded ..

    SL will also have a major issue with Scotland meeting it’s target of joining the eu on the agreed timetable, this will have a major negative impact on its UK pension business unless the management of that moves to the UK and thus retains its status as a business domiciled and regulated by an eu member.

    grum
    Member

    Project Fear are at it again I see with their relentlessly negative campaign. Oh no hang on…

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/mar/03/scotland-powerless-independence-nicola-sturgeon-snp-uk

    Premier Icon Northwind
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    Ah so what you meant was, “SL haven’t actually said this at all, but here’s some speculation”. Cheers!

    duckman
    Member

    grum – Member

    Or maybe she remembers the cuts made by Westminster after the unsucessful vote in the late 70’s. George Younger (the then Scottish Sec) had to go cap in hand as he feared civil unrest if he implemented the “revenge budget”

    duckman
    Member

    That just looks like a middle England wish list.

    piemonster
    Member

    Yep.

    An online poll for good measure, no idea how well it was conducted.

    Premier Icon footflaps
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    Another Grauniad poll:

    The Scots are more anxious than the English and Welsh about the effect of independence on the United Kingdom as a whole, and also worry about Scotland in particular. That is the finding of new Ipsos Mori polling on both sides of the border, which has been exclusively shared with the Guardian.

    An outright majority of Scots – 52% – believe that a yes vote would weaken the pound, compared with just 32% of voters in England and Wales. Large proportions of Scots likewise believe that independence would reduce available public funds – 49% fear it would mean less public money in Scotland, compared with the mere 24% of voters south of the border who believe the break-up of the union would mean spending cuts in England or Wales.

    Similar proportions – 52% in Scotland, 53% in England and Wales – believe that the Scottish economy would be negatively affected by independence.

    Scottish voters say departure would have graver effects for the UK as a whole than do their English counterparts. A Scottish majority of 57%, compared with just 43% of English and Welsh voters, believe the UK economy would be damaged; 51% of Scots believe the UK’s standing in the world would decline, a view shared by only 40% of voters south of the border.

    More Scots (63%) than English and Welsh (50%) feel that independence would lead to a worsening relationship between Edinburgh and the residual UK. Among Scots, 47% expect that political independence would weaken north-south cultural ties, compared with only 37% who fear that in England and Wales.

    Polling method

    The Scottish results are based on a survey of 1,001 respondents (adults aged over 16) conducted by telephone 20-25 February 2014. Data are weighted to match the profile of the population, England and Wales results are based on a survey of 1,012 respondents (adults aged 18-plus) across Great Britain. Interviews were conducted by telephone 1-3 February 2014. Data are weighted to match the profile of the population.

    http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/mar/03/scottish-anxiety-independence-revealed-poll

    I guess project fantasy still have some work to do!

    athgray
    Member

    It looks like the Dec poll was of 101% of a selection of the population.

    Premier Icon aracer
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    It looks like the Dec poll was of 101% of a selection of the population.

    Would you prefer them to round the figures incorrectly, or provide accuracy far greater than the experimental error?

    Premier Icon aracer
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    To be fair, England winning the World Cup is on the list of things less likely than Scotland voting yes to independence.

    gordimhor
    Member

    Beveridge and Hughes Hallett on currency union.
    Plan A is correct
    They are both critical of Paul Krugman about 4 minutes in.

    Thanks for that post Gordi – I watched first 10 mins but need to go now. I will try to watch it all later.

    AS should not HH’s opening words – all currency options have pros and cons – ie, you cant pretent that you only have the pro’s!!! He was “clever” when discussing risk-sharing!!!

    There will be some on here unhappy with Beveridges conclusion that ultimately the economics will trump the politics!!

    The main gist still seems (1) Plan A is correct for Scotland and (2) admitting that there is a Plan B is poor negotiating. IMO, they have got this wrong!!

    Premier Icon aracer
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    Not admitting there is a plan B, when the people who would need to agree a plan A have ruled it out would appear to be poor negotiating. I note that it doesn’t matter how much they might say plan A is in the best interests of rUK if those in rUK happen to disagree.

    Currency union is not going to happen. It would not be in the interest of the UK and would never make it past a referendum.

    Opposition to currency union rises sharply

    Premier Icon aracer
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    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-26455655

    I suspect both sides will see this as good news…

    Massive boost for Yes Scotland

    I assume this is some sort of funny joke referring to Gordon Brown’s huge lack of popularity in Scotland ?

    Despite clear evidence which suggests a completely different reality ?

    At the last general election the Labour Party in Scotland, under Gordon Brown’s leadership, received more than twice the number of votes of its nearest rival.

    And Gordon Brown’s personal vote in the Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath constituency was almost five times greater than that of his nearest rival (the SNP)

    athgray
    Member

    We didn’t vote for Blair either apparently.

    big_n_daft
    Member

    looks like the Scots are off

    AS is going to get his dream

    piemonster
    Member

    I assume this is some sort of funny joke

    ooh, check you out mr grumpy pants

    So I did get that right – it was a joke ?

    Ha ha …..it’s funny cause it’s not true, right ?

    Very good ! 🙂

    Why worry about a bloke who describes HIMSELF as an ex-politician, who rarely votes and who speaks approx 1 a year in the HoC (at least that is normally on constituency matters)? TBF, his genuine charitable donations mark him above another similar ex-politician.

    So wee eck’s “friends in EU” are bullying again with reminding him how laws work. How will he twist this one? It’s great not to be over-exposed to the auld friends at Gogarburn, perhaps?

    athgray
    Member

    In dear leaders 2008 “arc of prosperity” speech, RBS and HBOS were considered Scottish. They are not now, as they are damaged goods.

    konabunny
    Member

    Your export analogy doesn’t make sense in this case. Retail financial services rely on relatively thin margins, an adverse move between the Scottish currency and the pound would wipe out its profits very quickly,

    You’re making the fundamental error of assuming that if SL were in an independent Scotland it would automatically be converting its revenue into a new Scottish currency – which is both a goalpost-shift from your earlier assertion that even unilateral pound use would be unacceptable and also…untrue. You can avoid currency risk by not exchanging money pointlessly.

    It wasn’t an export analogy by the way – the provision of financial products overseas is an export.

    Premier Icon muddydwarf
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    Global banking group ‘astonished’ at Scottish Govt’s inability to form a coherent currency policy :-

    http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-26489307

    although they do say Scotland welching on debt would benefit Scotland in the short term.

    gordimhor
    Member

    Legally independent Scotland has no debt to renege on.

    Premier Icon muddydwarf
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    ..or currency.

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