I’ve enjoyed all the discussions about win predictors on TMS with the odds now about even between a draw and an India win, with an England win a little less likely.

However from years of following England, my money is all out by lunch.

Really hope they give it a go tomorrow, nothing fancy to begin with just keep the scoreboard ticking over, build pressure on the bowlers and fielders then go for it… I can dream

It would be brilliant and it would put a lot of pressure on Kohli – which would be nice.

Jadeja is a massive threat to the left handers, though. The way the ball was zipping out of the footmarks doesn’t make me confident. Burns played it brilliantly yesterday but it only takes one with your name on it.

I hope Kohli is forced to eat humble pie and we knock off these runs whilst the no1 spinner in the world kicks his heels, but it is a hope rather than an expectation.

It will be tough for the left handers but he can only bowl one end, and even then not all day.

Hopefully the sun shines and burns off this early mist (20 miles away from the Oval here in Surrey), the pitch still looks pretty good, the run rate is not excessive at 3/over – if we can get some partnerships going, and someone digs in for the others to bat around, etc.

So yeah, 5 down by lunch.

I reckon England should be able to chase this down. I also reckon that they won’t.

I would love to see England have a go. Without Butler & Stokes I can’t see it sadly.

I still think a draw is the least likely result. The middle order is Pope, Bairstow, Moween. Not really known for their ability to dig in and bat time.

We’d need to go at 3 an over, and currently we’ve been going at 2.5 including the inevitable slow start against the new ball and then playing for the close – I don’t think you need the speed of scoring of the likes of Buttler and Stokes to think that if someone gets in and bats long then 290 in a day is not excessive.

Root, Pope, Bairstow, Moeen all have natural TM strike rates in the 50-60 mark. That’s 3/over. Hameed is in the 30’s, Burns in the 40’s. So you want the openers to build on yesterday’s start, but also not to become too becalmed if we want to leave options open later.

OFC India can also shut up shop, with no restrictions on field, wides, etc., and also can slow the over rate to prevent 90 being bowled. If it gets to that.

Hard to completely shut up shop if they still only need 3 an over or so especially if Roots still in if the fields on the boundary singles should be easy to come by.

It’s definitely a fascinating day. I can’t see a draw, I think if England are still batting at the end of the day then they’ll have got the runs.
It’s easy to be down on the batting, but the positive spin is that Hameed and Burns are still in, Malan is class and can score quickly, and we all know about Joe Root. Pope looked great in the first innings, Bairstow will get you 30 and Moeen 25. You’ve than got a very long tail with England’s greatest allrounder in English conditions batting at 8.
Obviously, I still think we’ll slip to 100-7, but you’ve got to have hope.

I’m very tempted to have a Judas bet on India at 2/1. Needs to be enough to hurt a bit if I lose it, but as I never win bets that’ll secure England’s win by 8 wickets with 20 overs left

It wasn’t Stokes/Butlers strike rate I =think we miss, just their ability/class.

In England, Woakes>Stokes, it’s on.

Headingley ashes?? I do agree that Woakes is a very good bat though.

pitch is dead for pace, make it tricky to score fluently

Buttler’s never really impressed at Test level. 92 innings with 2 tons vs for example Bairstow (8 in 137) or Stokes (10 in 130) – cameos are great in the short game where he excels but accumulation and big scores are what’s needed on a flat deck in good conditions today.

Stokes, absolutely I’d give you that!

Headingley ashes?

Stokes is class and I’m saying in jest, but Woakes is a serious bat at 8 and doesn’t give me any concerns.
Buttler is so on and off in the test format that I don’t think it matters if he or Bairstow are batting, the outcome will be similar.

Michael Holding doing his best to jinx things by saying he doesn’t see how England can lose 10 wickets today.

Bairstow scores big 3x more frequently than Buttler.

I think Buttler is a better keeper nowadays, and I think can be more destructive when he comes off. If pushed to choose between I’d take Buttler, just, but that’s partly as an ex-keeper I always think you pick the best keeper, and if the top 6 could be relied upon then having Buttler at 7 to set up declarations, etc. is quite scary for the opposition. But today when I think batting properly for a decent length of time and picking up runs by natural positivity is needed, I’d rather we had Bairstow

And yes, I know neither is really the best keeper, but we’re choosing between two.

hint of reverse…..that would change the game a bit

hint of reverse…..that would change the game a bit

If it starts going properly it certainly does.

111-1 squeaky bum time!

oooffff! in the nuts!

His team-mates are not particularly sympathetic to his plight. For some reason.

So, with over an hour’s play, we still need 250. Can’t see us going for it now TBH. Lose another wicket before lunch and I reckon it’ll be a case of aiming just to bat the day out. However, if Malan and Hameed can accelerate the run rate over the next 90+mins before one of them goes, then Root may give the green light to have a dig. Methinks he’ll still play it safe though.

ffs a run out a **** run out! and a stupid run too boot.

I think Hameed and Malan may be on different tables at lunch.

And Siraj will be giving Jadeja and the skipper a wide berth too, maybe grab a sandwich and sit with his nuts in an ice bath for 20 mins.

I’m not convinced that was all Hameed’s fault. Malan looked sluggish and his dive was lacklustre. He seemed out of sorts generally to me.

Agree with grum, Maln wasn’t backing up at all. It was a tight run, but it was doable. Did the bowler slightly impede Malan as well?

Vaughan was talking about Liam Livingston being a useful player for Aus, given his experience down there. He’d be useful today to dispirit the bowling attack and get the scoreboard moving. Draw seeming more likely, it’ll all be clear in the hour after lunch…

I felt Root had to be in for most of the day for England to have a chance of winning. He keeps the score ticking over as well as providing stability.

@lunge I agree about the bowler

Root and Pope – this is the partnership. If they can stay in for a good while everything is possible.

Edit: goddamit!

Oh. Dear. 🙁

with a whimper

That’s that, then.

Was anyone really expecting them to chase a record total against India?

There is terrific support for India here.

wonder if the Tebbit test will dragged out again ?

Was anyone really expecting them to chase a record total against India?

Not really TBH. But I had hoped for some stickability throughout the top 6, even if that meant being bowled out for 310 with 20 mins to go. Sadly, some of these players just cannot be depended on when under pressure.

Could even be over by tea.

curtains

Was anyone really expecting them to chase a record total against India?

No, but I hoped for better than this!

What a player is Bumrah!

Just had 40 mins off, first ball back with that shonky run up and action and it’s an on the dot 85mph inswinging yorker.

Unbelievable bowler.

What a player is Bumrah!

Just had 40 mins off, first ball back with that shonky run up and action and it’s an on the dot 85mph inswinging yorker.

Unbelievable bowler.

A very rare talent. His wrists are where most people have their lower forearm so the whip in his action is amazing.

I’ve always liked Umesh as well – big strong bloke who hits the pitch hard.

Shami is very skiddy and quick and skilful too.

Ishant has been good, but he’s gone now. Siraj is nippy and up for it, but if his body thickens out he will lose pace, not gain it, because of his arm speed.

But India have a deeper squad than England too. Only Rahane and Ishant are obvious candidates to be ‘out’.