Lottery odds – chosen numbers v lucky dip.

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  • Lottery odds – chosen numbers v lucky dip.
  • Premier Icon The Pinkster
    Subscriber

    I gave up doing the National Lottery a while ago but during a chat at work today it got me wondering:

    As the winning numbers are selected randomly which would have more chance at winning over a period of time (say 6 months) – sticking to the same 6 numbers or having a lucky dip every time?

    cultsdave
    Member

    Both equal, 1,2,3,4,5,6 has as much chance as 12,15,22,23,28,36 for example.

    squadra
    Member

    The odds are the same if it is a random draw. You could just pick the numbers that won the previous week.

    Premier Icon wwaswas
    Subscriber

    You’re more likely to not share a win with a random spread of numbers – people tend to chose significant dates etc which skews sales to numbers less than 32 and thus more likely to be a shared win if those numbers are drawn for a win.

    Your odds of winning are the same each time regardless of whether you pick different numbers each time or stick with the same ones. Even as a previous winner your odds of winning again with the same numbers aren’t any lower is my understanding – ‘cos maths.

    tjagain
    Member

    I read that because of the way people select numbers ( using birthdays etc) then although your chances of winning are the same a lucky dip gives you a chance of a bigger payout as the odds are its going to be shared with less people

    nicko74
    Member

    There’s a “oooooh, nearly!” mentality at play. Like if you picked 32 but 33 came out, people have a sense of “I nearly won that!”, despite 32 being as much of a loser as 1.

    But as above – pick last week’s numbers, you have just as much chance to win.

    Premier Icon dissonance
    Subscriber

    As per wwaswas assuming it is random (which in this case I think is probably a safe bet for both the lucky dip and the selection although that said lotteries have been found to be flawed in the past) then there shouldnt be any difference in likelihood of winning but random numbers are more likely to give you a better share of the winnings since it is less likely to cluster on lucky numbers and the like.
    It is also, possibly, more likely to result in less likelihood of wasting your money next week since you would feel a fool after 10 years of using the same numbers than they turn up for once.

    nickjb
    Member

    You’re more likely to not share a win with a random spread of numbers – people tend to chose significant dates etc which skews sales to numbers less than 32 and thus more likely to be a shared win if those numbers are drawn for a win.

    This is the key. Any numbers are equally likely but some numbers will return more money. Interesting article here: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/240734.stm

    So many people are choosing 1,2,3,4,5,6 as they are “just as likely to come up as anything else” that if they did actually come up each winner would only get a few grand

    Also, never keep the same numbers. That is a life sentence

    5lab
    Member

    You’re more likely to not share a win with a random spread of numbers – people tend to chose significant dates etc which skews sales to numbers less than 32 and thus more likely to be a shared win if those numbers are drawn for a win.

    surely then the best option is not to pick a random spread (which might end up with all numbers under 32) but engineer an algorithm to pick a selection of the least used numbers, with a little randomness in case someone else builds the same algorithm?

    Premier Icon dissonance
    Subscriber

    but engineer an algorithm to pick a selection of the least used numbers, with a little randomness in case someone else builds the same algorithm?

    If you have access to that information then yup.
    Probably best bet would be to place several bets using the 10 or so possibilities.
    For messing around with lottery odds look up MIT and lotteries. MIt and, from memory, one other independent group found a massive flaw in one of the US state lotteries and so made a nice amount of money with minimal risk.
    Not dissimilar to how some have managed to game the casinos. Way beyond my math skills but fun to read about none the less.

    poolman
    Member

    Thanks for posts really interesting re sharing prizes, I didn’t know that. I have explained to a premium bond holder that every bond has an equal chance, but when you look at the prize results there seem to be more southern holders, and more recent ones, due to the profile of holder.

    Premier Icon richardkennerley
    Subscriber

    I bought a lucky dip for the new lotto, put it on each Monday and Thursday for 4 weeks. Cost me £12. Didn’t get one number in any draw!! I should win something for that!!

    I used to wonder this. Playing paranoid theorist for a moment. The only risk in ‘lucky deep’ could be if the organisers cluster numbers around a fraction of the available range, thus increasing the opportunity for roll-overs, and driving more sales.

    I’m sure that man on the telly from the official inspectorship of numbered ball checks for this sort of thing, and it is in fact all fine.

    But it could be part of the evil master plan to keep us docile, they put Chemtrails in the water you know…

    Premier Icon convert
    Subscriber

    In a men are from Mars, women from Venus kind of way I genuinely can’t understand why anyone plays the lottery. It’s just beyond my understanding, can’t compute.

    Do those that do go out of their way to watch it? Is that where the pleasure comes from – the anticipation? It’s clearly not an investment. Is it from the thought that any day now you might, just might be a millionaire?

    When I think of the odds I imagine all the other players as real people. Fill Old Trafford with ticket holders. Then put all the other premiership grounds next to it, also full. Then put a ring of all the championship grounds around those and fill them to capacity. Then put the league 1 clubs around that too. Then double it all. Then have your wife/husband/partner trying to find you in the crowd. They are going to be selective and only look for you and they know what you like look and can discount thousands without thinking. Given them all day to find you and you’d still be sitting there in despair knowing you’ll never be found. It ain’t ever going to happen for you.

    Premier Icon tomd
    Subscriber

    The lottery is a tax on people who’re bad at maths. I guess it’s fun and all that though.

    hammy7272
    Member

    Got to be in it to win it. Innit.

    Not that I am ‘cos I’m good at maths.

    freespace
    Member

    Probability would dictate that a set of chosen numbers would have the same chance of winning as a lucky dip, but over many draws, the chosen numbers would have a higher probability of winning than a constantly changing set. Well that is what I’m Banking on. Maybe next week.

    You shouldn’t play it every week.

    Save up all your money and buy lots of different lottery tickets for one single lottery draw, thus improving your chance of winning (slightly).

    tails
    Member

    Probability would dictate that a set of chosen numbers would have the same chance of winning as a lucky dip, but over many draws, the chosen numbers would have a higher probability of winning than a constantly changing set. Well that is what I’m Banking on. Maybe next week.

    Think there is a bit as truth woman at work with these same numbers seems to win at least £100 a year in one hit. Where as I just lose lose and lose again. Just always think what if. Sad really as I must have spent over £1k in the years I’ve been playing. Kind of what happens when you earn **** all just get trapped in a cycle.

    If I do win carbon, xtr, hope, fox, reserve.

    Premier Icon tomhoward
    Subscriber

    If you study the previous draws, then pick the average lowest number drawn, the average 2nd lowest number, 3 lowest, 3rd highest, 2nd highest, and highest then, Over a period of time, the odds go in your favour, a tiny bit. Remember when (comparatively) loads of people won the jackpot a few years ago? Numbers were bang on the averages to date.

    freespace
    Member

    Used to play the averages when at university. Came out on top, but took up too much time to be really worth it. This was in 94/95 when lottery started.stopped when my highlighted sheet of paper got to long.

    Premier Icon Moe
    Subscriber

    Once the ticket is bought it’s 50/50. It’s either going to win or it ain’t.

    I only ever buy lucky dip but only occasionally and only if there’s no queue at the kiosk!

    Premier Icon richardkennerley
    Subscriber

    convert

    Subscriber
    In a men are from Mars, women from Venus kind of way I genuinely can’t understand why anyone plays the lottery. It’s just beyond my understanding, can’t compute.

    Because, although the odds are long, I’m just as likely to win as anyone else with a ticket and every week, or every few weeks, someone wins millions of pounds. It’s a dream, I like to think “what would I do if i win the lottery” but if I don’t play, I can’t let myself have that dream. I’d love to know what it feels like to be gifted millions of pounds, but it’s never going to happen any other way, so I’m paying for the pleasure of having that dream and one day, I might win. I probably won’t, obviously, but I might.

    Klunk
    Member

    “what would I do if i win the lottery”

    I was wondering the other day if you won the lottery which was the “cheapest” party to donate to, to buy your way to a knighthood.

    mogrim
    Member

    The lottery is a tax on people who’re bad at maths.

    I’m quite capable of working out the odds, and know they’re astronomical. Yet I still play every now and then…

    I buy a ticket every month or so, and it comes out of the same budget as a beer – it’s a pointless thing to drink, the pleasure a single pint gives you doesn’t last long, so why drink it? Surely it’s a complete waste of money? Same sort of thing with the lottery – it gives me a chance to dream, even if I know I’ll never win it. Exactly what @richardkennerley said 🙂

    Once the ticket is bought it’s 50/50. It’s either going to win or it ain’t.

    Read Jack Reacher much?

    skolt
    Member

    I buy a lucky dip ticket every now and again and never think about winning. I prefer to think of all the village halls, charity minibuses, pump tracks etc that have been paid for with lottery money. If I do win the odd tenner that’s just a bonus.

    Premier Icon molgrips
    Subscriber

    I genuinely can’t understand why anyone plays the lottery

    Because the money goes to good causes. Or at least some of it. I’ll never play any of the private ones.

    It ain’t ever going to happen for you.

    Tell that to the people who’ve won.

    kerley
    Member

    The lottery is a tax on people who’re bad at maths.

    I am good at maths yet like to gamble so more a tax on dreamers

    hols2
    Member

    I genuinely can’t understand why anyone plays the lottery. It’s just beyond my understanding, can’t compute.

    When there’s a big jackpot, the odds can make it statistically worthwhile. This mostly applies to organized syndicates that have enough funds to buy all the possible combinations, but, if you are going to play, best to save your money until there is a big jackpot.

    Also, it can be a fun thing if you have a group and everyone chips in a tiny amount each week.

    Having said all that, I haven’t bought a ticket since my mum died – she used to enjoy it so I used to get a ticket for her every week (she paid, I went to the shop and got the ticket). Don’t see much point wasting my own money on it.

    big jackpot, the odds can make it statistically worthwhile. This mostly applies to organized syndicates that have enough funds to buy all the possible combinations,

    An organised syndicate with fourteen million pounds to spare, and infinite admin resources.

    No. NO. NO

    Premier Icon richardkennerley
    Subscriber

    The odds of the jackpot are longer than that now I think, plus a ticket is £2.50, so they’d need more than £14 mil to guarantee a win

    hols2
    Member

    The details of lotteries vary between regions. In some places you didn’t have to hand in paper slips with your requested numbers so it used to be simple to buy all the combinations. It wasn’t cheating, but people felt it wasn’t right that syndicates could buy all the combinations so there was pressure to change it.

    Depending on the range of numbers and prize-winning combinations, when you get insanely huge prizes, it’s probably worth buying tickets.

    https://abc7news.com/society/10-largest-lottery-jackpots-in-history/2317638/

    Premier Icon Poopscoop
    Subscriber

    I buy the lucky dip. I waste money on other stuff that will DEFINITELY never give me a return, so where is the harm?

    It’s a dream tax as said.

    I check the numbers by scanning the ticket on my mobile with the app.

    It’s a lovely split second when it makes the jingly “you’ve won something sound”… Usually not much but still?

    I agree about not using the same numbers each time. You basically have to play for life!…. Just in case! Hence lucky dip for me.👍

    Premier Icon edd
    Subscriber

    The only “lottery” I play is Premium Bonds. You get the chance to win a million pounds, but your “ticket” is valid forever, and if you get bored of playing you can sell your “ticket” back.

    Premier Icon Drac
    Subscriber

    . It wasn’t cheating, but people felt it wasn’t right that syndicates could buy all the combinations so there was pressure to change it.

    Go on then explain exactly how a syndicate would do this as it’s never actually happened.

    hols2
    Member

    Go on then explain exactly how a syndicate would do this as it’s never actually happened.

    Laws vary by country, but a lot of people felt that being able to buy all possible combinations using machine filled out tickets was unfair so it was changed so that only hand-filled out tickets are accepted.

    https://thehustle.co/the-man-who-won-the-lottery-14-times

    https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2016/02/how-mit-students-gamed-the-lottery/470349/

    Premier Icon Drac
    Subscriber

    Yeah thanks for the links to the American lotteries.

    hols2
    Member

    The details of lotteries vary between regions.

    Yeah thanks for the links to the American lotteries.

    Thanks for not bothering to read before starting typing.

    Premier Icon Drac
    Subscriber

    Thanks for assuming I didn’t.

    I asked how it would have been done in the UK turns out it’s massively complicated takes a years of planning which is why it’s never happened in the UK.

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