I understand and respect the different viewpoints on this. But that’s all they are in the absence of absolute instruction, even the police don’t agree on it; some say it’s OK to take a short drive to get away from the crowds, others say you can’t.

I live on a housing estate with ca 10,000 inhabitants, it’s a mile walk to get to the edge of the houses and a green space and to do that I walk past large numbers of houses and other people, many of whom are also on the same green space as me. Or, I can get in the car and drive 2.5 miles to a massive open space where I can walk the dog and not come within 50m of anyone else, no gates to infect, etc. No amount of common sense says to me that the former is safer. If there’s a clear instruction not to, I’ll obey it but until then I’ll use my own risk based judgement.

If you can’t miss a few weeks riding so a virus that has pretty much wiped Italy out

Oh please….. no-one’s making out this isn’t serious but ‘wiped Italy out’? Each death is a tragedy in it’s own right, but when you illustrate your points with such hyperbole they lose their effect.

Another question while at it, to those that say we should stay in and ride turbos because taking any risk of crashing a real bike, or an unnecessary car journey creates is a risk too much.

I assume you’re all sticking to Z2 work then? I mean, to be bouncing your heart rate off the rev limiter chasing a virtual KOM or taking part in a Zwift race would be hypocritical and unnecessarily risky wouldn’t it?

then I’ll use my own risk based judgement.

How good is your judgement of the risk? Do you actually understand it?

2.5mi is, to be fair, sod all, you could walk that with no need to be in the car at all [which would rather kill two birds wouldn’t it, you could simply not get in the car and walk to the same place thus getting your exercise and solving the issue of travel] but that aside to address the more general issue:

Your estate has a fixed population of 10k. Of that 10k some will be immune, most will catch it, some will be asymptomatic, a number will need treatment, a small number will need intensive treatment and a smaller number will die. Around 1%, your local hospital can deal with those numbers.

The virus is very infectious, if you have it the likelihood is so does at least 1 other person in that 10k so no matter how many of that 10k you – 0 or all of them) infect the same 100 to 400 people end up dead. The numbers don’t change.

If you, or anyone else (because you think 2.5mi, John next door thinks the same but in the opposite direction, Alice down stairs thinks 10mi and so on) infects the next housing estate of 10k is not 100 its 200 dead and 1000 needing icu which actually means 800 dead because you’re now into numbers your hospital can’t cope with.

The next estate passes it to the next and so on.

It’s not you.

It’s not 1 person passing it to one person, it’s one person passing it to thousands through what they thought were benign actions.

You’ve a ten thousandth* of a percentage chance of passing it to someone by wandering around a field where you didn’t happen to pass someone though other people do go through the day but, once they have it likelihood is so do 10k more people on their estate, or the whole population of Birmingham or what ever so yeah you’ve about a 1:1mil chance of killing an extra 400 people by going a bit further vs staying local and definitely not killing any extra and your risk assessment is its fine.

Your risk assessment is, frankly, rubbish if it says the riskier course of action for zero gain is better.

*possibly more, possibly less, I’ve no clue but then again, nor do you.

I get what you’re saying that if my 10,000 community only mixes with the same 10K community then at worst there’s only 10K people who can get it but you know that isn’t practical. People are still travelling to work, shops, and so on, and in any case this is already so widespread that the idea of keeping it from spreading to other communities is now irrelevant because they already have if for themselves anyway.

The idea of preventing transfer is great if it can be accomplished but that boat sailed weeks ago.

Poorly designed estate.
Change your outdoor times to avoid others.
If you have a garden, use it.
Rule 1 always applies; don’t be a dick.

If you, or anyone else (because you think 2.5mi, John next door thinks the same but in the opposite direction, Alice down stairs thinks 10mi and so on) infects the next housing estate of 10k is not 100 its 200 dead and 1000 needing icu which actually means 800 dead because you’re now into numbers your hospital can’t cope with.

Great example but high unlikely. The second estate of 10K already has it. That 10K estate will have been mixing with loads of people outside of the estate over the last 3 months.

By everybody staying indoors nobody else within the estate will get it who hasn’t already got it/had it. Driving or walking through that estate where everybody is sat indoors will not spread it to a single extra person.

I assume you’re all sticking to Z2 work then? I mean, to be bouncing your heart rate off the rev limiter chasing a virtual KOM or taking part in a Zwift race would be hypocritical and unnecessarily risky wouldn’t it?

I was thinking that as I was pushingvquite hard on zwift….i might back off a bit.

Poorly designed estate

Not a lot I can do to change that.

Change your outdoor times to avoid others.

I do, but still doesn’t avoid the others and the need to access the open space down one of two footpaths. I can reduce exposure to others but by going a short distance in my car I’m able to avoid others completely.

If you have a garden, use it.

We do. We’ve cut the dog down in # and duration of walks and try to burn her out playing fetch in the garden as well, and if we were banned completely we’d have to make do. That’s the one aspect where if pushed I’d consider if a walk in the outdoors to decompress and get away from these four walls is really necessary.

Rule 1 always applies; don’t be a dick

I agree. I don’t think I am being a dick….but if you do then the accusation is about going out at all and as admitted in (3) I can question if that is truly necessary. Not about my choice once I’ve decided to go out.

FFS.

Just exercise from your house, avoid any narrow lanes and you can keep distance. You are not a special case.

By using your car you are lifting the potential of spreading the virus/interaction with others. Breakdowns/accident/refueling!

Just got back from my usual Saturday ride.

Number of cars about seemed same as usual (presumably they were all making essential journeys)
Number of cars parked on dog walking areas seemed same as usual (non essential journey)
Number of cyclists was way higher. I typically seen no cyclists at all at 7 in the morning but today saw 10, all solo apart from 2 riding along together so assume they were living in same house.

The cars that passed me still passed too close so no chance of social distancing having any positive consequences there…

On the principle of locked down kids exercise, Zwift do child accounts, my boy is loving a bit of Zwift currently.  They don’t have to “train” although he did do a ramp test and gained an ftp of 91w, but he lives the “game” aspect of riding his bike for a bit.

https://support.zwift.com/contact/consent-contact-form-H1N_ZWCmV

Now, I can’t be bothered to read through 26 pages but is the consensus that for me a 1 hour solo ride to the forest, a few trails and home again is ok?

I think the words of Harry Day apply here:

“Rules are for the obedience of fools and the guidance of wise men”

but is the consensus that for me a 1 hour solo ride to the forest, a few trails and home again is ok?

For now, I’d say yes. It’s what I’m doing.

I was thinking that as I was pushingvquite hard on zwift….i might back off a bit.

The UCI sent out a release thing yesterday which included some quite interesting stuff on training intensity and the virus that’s aimed primarily at pro riders, but has a wider relevance too. Hang on…

https://mailchi.mp/uci/uci-newsletter-special-edition-coronavirus-2-march-2020-ja61fseeyi

This is the relevant bit:

Physical training while minimising the susceptibility to infection
The effectiveness of the immune system against viruses is significantly affected after high intensity training sessions, in comparison to a normal training programme.

The training programme should be revised downwards, with a reduction in the workload of approximately 10-15%. As the workload depends on the intensity and duration of the exercises, the main emphasis will be on reducing the duration of the sessions, keeping the same intensity (above all without increasing it). For more specific, intense and relatively short sessions (HIIT – High Intensity Interval Training), the intensity of each exercise will be reduced by 10-15%.

In this period of emergency services overload in hospitals, and the risk of infection in healthcare facilities, prevention of the risk of crash is fundamental. Therefore in countries where confinement is not compulsory or for riders who are not self-isolated, training at home is highly recommended.

Appropriate nutrition to maintain an effective immune system
The composition of the diet and timing of food intake may also help provide protection against infections. The most effective nutritional strategies to maintain robust immune function during physical training are to ingest carbohydrate during exercise, protein after training sessions, and avoid deficiencies of essential micronutrients.

Carbohydrate ingestion (~30-60 g/h) during prolonged training sessions reduces the impact of metabolic stress on several aspects of immune function. During periods at risk of infection, training sessions performed in a fasting or with low-glycogen stores and without carbohydrate ingestion during exercise should be avoided.

Regular protein ingestion in meals throughout the day (~1.2-1.6 g/kg.day) and adequate protein intake soon after training sessions (~20-30 g) is required to attenuate some aspects of post-exercise immune depression and maintain normal immune function.
Given the potential role of vitamin D in regulating immune responses, monitoring the vitamin D status is important for athletes.

Consider including a variety of fruits and vegetables in your regular diet. Red fruits and vegetables (tomatoes, strawberries, cherries, pink grapefruit, etc.), greens (broccoli, cabbage, etc.), purple and blue fruits and vegetables (grapes, blackcurrants, plums, eggplants, etc.), yellow fruits and vegetables (apricots, pineapple, mango, grapefruit, peppers, etc.) are excellent vectors of antioxidant micronutrients such as vitamins A, C and E.

Does sportswear help spread the virus?
The risk of transmitting the new coronavirus from surfaces like clothing is a matter of debate. There is no direct measure of the stability of the new coronavirus on clothing. However, it seems that enveloped viruses, like the new coronavirus, are less stable on porous surfaces like cloth than on non-porous surfaces like plastic, paper and metals.

However, it is advisable to disinfect the clothes used during training, wash them in hot water and use a tumble dryer at high temperature.

Prevent the risk of viral myocarditis
Elite athletes may have an increased risk for viral infection and subsequent myocarditis. In athletes affected by myocarditis, the systemic inflammatory response is associated with an increased risk of sudden cardiac death.

The first step in preventing the risk of viral myocarditis in athlete is to abstain from intense training sessions in the event of fever, or within 8 days following a flu (fever, chills, myalgia, rhinitis, etc.). In the event of any suspected clinical sign of Covid-19 (i.e. fever, fatigue, dry cough), rest is absolutely imperative, and any intense physical exercise is strictly discouraged.

In other news, the way social distancing works isn’t binary. It assumes human fallibility. Bashing other people over relatively minor risks just increases stress. We need to be looking after each other and being a little more kind.

the idea of keeping it from spreading to other communities is now irrelevant because they already have if for themselves anyway.

By that logic lets just sack of the lockdown treat every day like a bank holiday and open all the pubs again. How about not making it worse. Limit the spread.

Don’t be a dick about it can also be applied to those that are given some rules and take them to the most extreme. The kind of people that should never be given a yellow tabard.

Exercise on your own or with someone from your house hold once per day.

Only make essential journeys.

Both are open to interpretation and left deliberately so.

The ideas is to flaten the curve, not totally stop the spread. If you think this is just three weeks isolation, Think again. No way its going to be relaxed before easter weekend!

Everyone needs to understand they are going to get this at some point. If not now, probably in 18 months time.

Reducing movement, reduces speed of spread. This helps NHS with overload issues.

If you lock people down too tightly then what seens novel at the moment will seriously effect people in the long run. People will start to rebel as time goes by. That’s why its left to be open to interpretation to a certain extent. If you come down too militant then it will become harder to enforce. Its in peoples nature to rebel, the Gov and its advisors seem to understand this.

All those people at home doing diy and gardening is going to cause a massive strain on A & E due to DIY and Gardening injuries.

The current view by government is that people should exercise locally but dosent define local. It also says driving to exercise should be avoided when unnecessariry, once again deliberately not saying you cant.

Say change your exercise times to avoid doing it when most people are around is aa silly thing to say. You are talking to one person, if they change their time then 100’s of others are still doing it at the same time.

Exercise is essential for mental wellbeing, not spreading this virus is essential. If you live in a densely populated area find somewhere quiet to exercise. If you need to drive a short distance to do that in your local area, then do it. Gov are not saying you cant.

By the way i live on the edge of a small town and can ride along the old railway track into the hills for an 1-2 hour ride. Not driven since this started as i can exercise safely without risk of exposure to the virus. But i know some people are not as lucky as me.

The idea of preventing transfer is great if it can be accomplished but that boat sailed weeks ago.

Jeez. So let’s all go back to normal and watch the health services self-implode and say our goodbyes to our vulnerable wives, parents, children, grandparents then, shall we? My wife, mum, step-dad and dad are all in vulnerable group.

The radio is full of it this morning. The message is 100% clear.

Rubbish.

There is still a need to avoid transmission, whether within areas or outside of areas. By social distancing. Your argument was against spreading to new areas (transfer); my argument is to minimise the risk of transmission by staying away from others. Pretending we can minimise the spread because this is limited to certain pockets is pointless now.

If you lock people down too tightly then what seens novel at the moment will seriously effect people in the long run. People will start to rebel as time goes by. That’s why its left to be open to interpretation to a certain extent. If you come down too militant then it will become harder to enforce. Its in peoples nature to rebel, the Gov and its advisors seem to understand this.

The modelling factors this is. It doesn’t assume absolute compliance because we’re human. It doesn’t aim to completely stop the spread of the virus, it can’t. It aims to slow it and prevent our health service from being overwhelmed. Short of living in an absolutist police state like STW, there will never be absolute compliance. but the good news is that there doesn’t need to be.

The other side of this is that chewing lumps off each other for notional transgressions that in the big picture will have a microscopic impact just ends up making people more frightened and more stressed. We should be looking after each other, not going full-on chimp whenever someone says something that we have an issue with.

Like I said a while back, I don’t think anyone on here is advocating bad stuff like group rides or travelling to national parks or skipping around holding hands with strangers or going to football matches, holding corona cocktail parties etc, but people are reacting as if that’s what’s being suggested.

Pretending we can minimise the spread because this is limited to certain pockets is pointless now.

Please ignore @theotherjonv and listen to the experts everybody.

But i know some people are not as lucky as me.

That sort of insight appears rare on stw!
I pity the **** stuck in the middle of a city in a bedsit. The stw advice of exercising in the garden or set up a turbo in the spare room/garage is great if you have those things.
I wont criticise those driving a few miles to find some space.

Edit: Actually **** it cba arguing with people who have it so engrained that it’s a contravention of their human rights.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/coronavirus-guidance-on-access-to-green-spaces

Unfortunately, I’m expecting a steady flow of traffic through the village again like last weekend. Families deciding to jump in the car and drive to White Horse Hill for a day out. NT have shut the car parks now, hopefully that will put people off.

Yep me too. I’m out.

Why do the ones wanting instruction need instruction …surley you know with common sense what is best…very very scary that you cant work it out

If you where not told stealing is wrong would you then steal etc….

Going to villages is simple, they might not have any cv present..you might..so dont take it there…

If they dont leave and you dont go it wont spread…or am i the daft one

People are still travelling to work, shops, and so on, and in any case this is already so widespread that the idea of keeping it from spreading to other communities is now irrelevant because they already have if for themselves anyway.

That’s pretty shortsighted. Travelling will re-introduce the virus to places where it has been and is being irradicated.

Imagine if you had the virus but quarantined at home. Maybe one other family member gets it but another doesn’t. After a couple of weeks would you want footfall from all over the country through your kitchen? Would that not put the non-immune family member at risk?

See Viral loading also…

We should be looking after each other, not going full-on chimp whenever someone says something that we have an issue with.

Like I said a while back, I don’t think anyone on here is advocating bad stuff like group rides or travelling to national parks or skipping around holding hands with strangers or going to football matches, holding corona cocktail parties etc, but people are reacting as if that’s what’s being suggested

Careful now, common sense can not be applied in any CoronaVirus discussion.

These discussions do tend to bring out the fringe lunatics, who are excelling themselves, even by STW’s standards.

If they dont leave and you dont go it wont spread…or am i the daft one

No. You’ve got it bang on.

Don’t be a spreader.

Spot on Hob Nob, I know some people haven’t got any but just use your common sense.

I saw a really good post (possibly earlier in this thread) that said deep down people know if what they are doing is wrong or not so just go with that feeling, you know if you’re taking the piss or not 😉

Just don’t come on here asking other people if what you are doing is ok as there are a load of poisonous nobheads that’ll grind you down if you’re not careful!

Just got back from a 20 mile loop around the FofD without going more than a few miles from my house – amazingly quiet in the woods, just one or two regulars walking their dogs.

Surely we haven’t learnt to behave ourselves? Don’t let me down Britain – I expect the worst!

These discussions do tend to bring out the fringe lunatics, who are excelling themselves, even by STW’s standards.

Does feel that way, even forumites who I’ve known on here for years. Turns out Yoda was right – fear leads to anger, anger leads to hate, hate leads to suffering.

The ones managing to get outside to exercise without being a dick seem to be in a much better state than those shouting them down.

Sorry if been covered but if a key worker cycles to work and back are they still allowed to go out a run after?

Technically yes but if you use common sense it’s better to not do so on commuting days.

I cycle to work as much as possible, this week I’ve limited myself to that on working days. Reason being that with everyone else going out for their daily exercise seems to head out either early or late so rather than add to the space issue I’ll extend my commute home an extra mile or two on the quiet roads in the city, leave the open spaces for the poor sods who’ve been stuck indoors all day. Days off I can head out during the quiet times, basically when everyone’s at the supermarket.

Same rules I’ve used for the gym for the last few years: avoid the peak times.

I’m not re-reading 25 pages to check, but I don’t think anyone has mentioned Purity Spirals, which is what seems to be going with some posters here.

A purity spiral occurs when a community becomes fixated on implementing a single value that has no upper limit, and no single agreed interpretation. The result is a moral feeding frenzy.

No matter what you do somebody will always denounce you, tell you you’re not doing enough. They’ll interpret something in a particular way and tell others they are evil if they don’t agree.
This article is about knitting – yes knitting – but it’s interesting as it shows what happens when people try to be purer than everyone else.

How knitters got knotted in a purity spiral

Go on, read it – you’ve nothing better to do at the moment 🙂

That put me right off knitting 🙁

fear leads to anger, anger leads to hate, hate leads to suffering.

Man, if only you’d have set that to a rap.

Then you only leave space to discriminate

And to discriminate only generates hate

And when you hate then you’re bound to get irate, yeah

Madness is what you demonstrate

And that’s exactly how anger works and operates

Man, you gotta have love just to set it straight

Take control of your mind and meditate

Let your soul gravitate to the love, y’all

, y’all

Never heard of Purity Spirals, but have heard Knit and Natter groups referred to as Stitch and Bitch 😄🤣

The banner on the forum from STW Towers captures it best.

No Car, No Gnar, Not Far.

Some comments here won’t look very clever when death rates are over 500 a day.