Liz! Truss!

To lose 12 seats? Why?

Because it loses the Tory seats in the south of Scotland that they have relied on, and as for the western isles I doubt the shift would be quite as large towards labour

LAB: 498 (+296)
CON: 61 (-304)

Obviously that will never happen but if it were to happen it would imo produce a hugely radical Labour government. With such a massive mandate Starmer would find it impossible to resist pressure for radical change, even if he wanted to. And Labour Party discipline within the PLP would be a nightmare to maintain.

Has she done a load of Local TV stuff this afternoon all to be shown at 6.30 tonight on local news?

You would certainly hope so Ernie but it didn’t happen with Blair

I’m calling it now. You heard it here first (ok, maybe not first but I haven’t heard anyone saying it yet).

Within the next 6 months there will be a new Tory party leader/PM. The MPs will get around the fact the racist pensioners won’t vote for a brown person by giving the choice of a brown person and black person.

The two finalists will be Rishi Sunak and Kemi Badenoch.

The next PM will be Kemi Badenoch.

Badenoch? Makes truss look sensible

Just on the radio, not sure who it was but either Tory MP or ex Tory MP was saying that at this point it’s not really how people would vote, it’s more a measure right now of ‘do you think the government is doing a good job’.

I’m not sure if that makes it any better. Doubling down on this being the right policy, in the face of that opinion, makes a U-turn impossible surely, it would have to be a resignation or continue to see it through. Has any leader ever been sacked during their own conference. Good job it’s in Birmingham, you can’t get much further from the sea that they’d be chucking her in if they could. And who are the 21% who would still vote for them even now!

I might book a day off to watch the conference speeches live…..

And Labour Party discipline within the PLP would be a nightmare to maintain.

Aye. The main debate would become between the right and left of labour like Manchester council in the 80s

You would certainly hope so Ernie but it didn’t happen with Blair

Even Blair would have struggled justifying a “moderate” line with those figures! I was referring to the impossible to achieve scenario of 61 Tory seats posted above.

Whilst fantasy figures are fun a reality check suggests that we have been in a similar situation before.

In 1990, similarly two years before a general election, Thatcher was so unpopular that opinion polls were giving Labour leads over the Tories not that much different than today:

The poll showed the opposition Labor Party steaming ahead with a 24.5% lead over Thatcher’s Conservatives.

The poll put Labor at 52.5%, gaining three points since its last polls a month ago, while the Conservatives had 28%, down three points.

https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1990-04-06-mn-957-story.html

Two years later the Tories won the general election.

The two finalists will be Rishi Sunak and Kemi Badenoch.

The next PM will be Kemi Badenoch.

The script demands that they turn to the First Lord of the Admiralty

Local videos are out on the BBC, total denial of the effect of her daft plan on interest rates and blamed it on world forces, with the BoE have already denied is the real case, although share a part.

It’s like me burning my house down by tipping water onto a chip pan fire and then saying we’ll, something was better than nothing. Idiots.

What is needed now is a by-election in a safe Tory seat in which the Tory vote disappears and the result forces Tory MPs to move against Truss.

Unfortunately the next by-election will be in West Lancashire which is a safe Labour seat. Last election Labour received over half the votes in West Lancashire so there isn’t anything that can happen in the by-election which will spectacularly highlight a meltdown in Tory vote.

The Tories will be able to shrug it off by claiming it is a seat that they will never win and their supporters didn’t bother voting because it wasn’t a general election and the Tories already have a comfortable majority.

Hats off to Newsthump 😂

fooking ‘el that is a seriously red map ^

She’ll be getting a visit from the men in grey suits, its you or Kwazy. And it’s under the bus you go!

In 1990, similarly two years before a general election, Thatcher was so unpopular that opinion polls were giving Labour leads over the Tories not that much different than today:

It was unpopular policies that patially vanished with Mrs T’s demised not out and out fiscal incompetence!

And to think we reckoned Johnson staying would implode the Tories.

I for one am not for the slightest moment counting my chickens. A huge swing towards Labour does not mean too much at this point I’m afraid. Lots of centre ground voters looking out primarily for themselves – it may not take much for the Tories to win them back.

just reversing the policy would probably put them back to their pre-budget %

Just a thought.

A leadership contest before the next election has to happen. Clearly Tory MPs will be sending in their letters right now and will continue to do so. But who would stand? The actions of Truss have upset people so much that I reckon new candidates would distance themselves from her as much as possible, which would mean we’d see candidates as moderate as it is possible to be.

So I think whatever happens now, we’ll get a much more moderate government when this lot comes crashing down.

That said, the Tories will have suffered huge reputational damage now.

The conference speech next week is going to be EPIC!

Is it just me that thinks she shares mannerisms / affectations with Sheldon Cooper..? Now I can’t unsee it…

I dont think they will replace her. To do so now requires a change of rules. To replace her in a year is too close to the next election. I also doubt moderates would stand as again unless there is a change of rules the membership will pick the most rightwing

Who would want to accept the poisoned chalice anyway and few have any experience of government

Change the rules or leader and the hard right includong their propagsndists in the press cry foul. They have spent years getting their puppet in. They will not let go easily.

I thonk the tories are stuck on the horns of a dilemma and one that is unsolvable.

I think a split is more likely

Maybe the tores will vote down a key part of her agenda and she goes for a back me or face an election VOC?

Its really hard to see a way out for moderates

It could even be the end of the tories

Let’s be honest no one in their right mind wants the job so the basket cases that are running the show will be stuck in the job. I can see her putting an add in the paper for a chancellor soon. Stepping down due to poor health is the only way out

just reversing the policy would probably put them back to their pre-budget %

I imagine the problem is that she’s spooked the market so much that even if she reversed everything at this point the interest rate will still remain high and mortgages will still cripple people? Can the genie be put back in the bottle?

In 1990, similarly two years before a general election, Thatcher was so unpopular that opinion polls were giving Labour leads over the Tories not that much different than today:

It was unpopular policies that patially vanished with Mrs T’s demised not out and out fiscal incompetence!

Er yeah, that’s right – “unpopular policies”. Especially one very important taxation policy which was seen by voters as grossly unfair and benefiting the wealthy.

In the four cannons of taxation stated by Adam Smith, an economist which Margaret Thatcher claimed to greatly admire, the number one cannon is “equity” – taxes people have to pay should be proportional to their income.

And if you think fiscal incompetence wasn’t an issue and that the UK economy was fine, in comparison to today, in April 1990 inflation was about the same as it is today, the unemployment rate was about 3 times what it is today, and like today the UK was about to enter into a recession, which it did within 6 months.

But none of that is the point. The point I was making was that, for whatever reasons, the opinion polls were very similar to today and yet in the general election two years later the Tories still managed to win.

total denial of the effect of her daft plan on interest rates and blamed it on world forces

PM Liz Truss's unwillingness to accept that aspects of the mini-budget caused market turmoil is a "red rag" to investors and financial markets, says Bloomberg's Head of Economics @MyStephanomics

? Listen: https://t.co/oipDSIaPoI pic.twitter.com/pk607I7A3D

— Bloomberg Radio (@BloombergRadio) September 29, 2022

Liz Truss repeatedly told the BBC that energy bills are capped at £2,500. They are not.

I just wonder if she actually knows how her policy works,althought I did hear her actually say the ‘average’ bill word in later interviews so someone may have told her.

I reckon it’ll be Kemi but I reckon she’ll have no-one standing against her, I can’t see the tories going thru another farce.

The point I was making was that, for whatever reasons, the opinion polls were very similar to today and yet in the general election two years later the Tories still managed to win.

They changed leader, which you claim they won’t do this time.

Of course, they probably will change leader (assuming her MPs want to stay in parliament past the next election, I suppose many might just give up) which may reduce their losses, but there will be losses. Big losses. Doubt Labour will maintain these leads in the polls, but an 80 seat Tory majority now looks like a blip. A blip caused by a policy that looks increasingly either to have been counter productive for the UK, or at least “done” and no longer the reason to vote Tory that it once was. The Conservatives no longer have the ace card of pretending they are delivering something vital that others might deny the voter… Brexit.

She’ll get ousted when the OBR forecast surfaces, then Boris will come to save the day as he gets the big decisions right

Even capped is the wrong terminology.
As I am almost certain that the bills should be higher by a fair whack
And deferral or temporarily subsidised, to be repaid shortly, might help the hard of thinking realise what is going to happen to everyone in the uk.
Trussed up like rotisserie chickens with the prospect of a long poker being shoved somewhere unpleasant is where we are heading.
Makes BJ look like some sort of genius

unless there is a change of rules the membership will pick the most rightwing

Or they do what they did last time, get to the last two and have one of them capitulate so they don’t need to waste 2 more months.

I imagine the problem is that she’s spooked the market so much that even if she reversed everything at this point the interest rate will still remain high and mortgages will still cripple people? Can the genie be put back in the bottle?

I’d hypothesise it would end up somewhere in the middle. You could correct it so that the outcome of the bank’s in-house and the OBR’s modeling was painting the rosiest picture possible for the moment but markets really don’t like uncertainty so would be wary of more u-turns or bad decisions.

Ironically Labour being a nailed on certainty might actually stabilise things more than a close run election.

TBH, I dont think anyone thought that she would be quite so entertaining, spectacularly crashing the pound and being responsible for bringing some pension companies to the brink of collapse and causing the mortgage rate to go up and force a load of loans to be withdrawn, this early in in your premiership has to be a bit of a record, whilst trying to deny all culpability although deliberately blocking the reports whilst her buddy sacked the BOE bloke. Let alone the reports that you may have let you m8s in early on your plans.

I just don’t know what she can possibly do for an encore.

And we thought Boris’s wallpaper was a bit of an extravagance, 3 weeks on the job and she’s written blank cheques for billions bailing out her energy buddys profits , I don’t think the country can afford to indulge her.

They changed leader, which you claim they won’t do this time.

Eh? What are you talking about Kelvin? How the hell do I know whether the Tories will replace Liz Truss or not?

I would have thought that it is highly likely that they will replace Truss. For me it’s the only likely scenario in which they would win the next general election.

The point of my post was to suggest that it is wrong to be complacent as things can change dramatically in politics.

But I don’t do predictions, I leave that to others. I merely suggest what might be possible.

Edit: Liz Truss has never been very popular with the Parliamentary Tory Party, iirc only 50 Tory MPs chose her as their first choice. She ended up as one of two candidates put to the membership because of the mechanics of the leadership process. If there hasn’t been any serious moves against her by Tory MPs it is only because she hasn’t been in the job for even 3 weeks yet. It’s way too soon.

Its OK,she’s having an emergency meeting,everything’s going to be fine.
don’t panic

How the hell do I know whether the Tories will replace Liz Truss or not?

I dont think they will replace her.

🤷🏻‍♂️

She’s toast

KK will have to go first

even if they get the OBR to cook the books it’s all too late, the die was cast the second the BOE slapped it’s wedge down to save the pension industry. the doorstep chat with older voters for labour candidate got very easy “you know that Mrs Truss tried to make you destitute.”