Daughter had an Early Rider 14 and is now on a 16. We have a Orbea 20 already waiting (I did what you are thinking about) and although she can ride it and put toes on the ground, she now finds the 16 more fun and easy to handle and is her chosen bike for any rides that we do. She is 4 1/2 and only on the 25th percentile though so maybe a taller kid could manage the extra heft.
She also rode an Isla bikes 20″ for a try out, but it was too uncomfortable (her words) for bumpy stuff, despite being a more usable size than the Orbea, and preferered the fat tyres of the 16″ Early Rider. By eye the wheel base of the small 20″ Islabike looked about the same as the 16″ early rider.
Decent kids bikes hold their value well so it is more like renting than a big upfront expenditure.
The biggest difference for our rides has been the addition of a towwhee rather than worrying about wheel size or gears and at 4 1/2 I still occasionallly have to carry the bike so a 16″ is better for that.