im not really one who watches the news so fill me in, is the recession worstening, staying the same or getting better and what is the outlook for the housing market? some one said to me the housing market wont recover for at least ten years??

We are awaiting the effects of the cuts – my belief is they will tip us back into recession and it will be deep and prolonged.

House prices – very area dependent. Stable / rising here in Edinburgh

House prices in the NE (England) seem to be in freefall. We bought our house for £83 grand three years ago. One almost exactly the same has just gone on the market a few doors down for less than £70,000. 🙁

It’s getting much much worse.

Huge trade deficit, huge losses in the public sector (and no the private sector won’t simply “magic” up replacement jobs) yet Estate agents and the Halifax will still spout utter cr4p about house price rises selected from extremely biased information sources and using data so dodgy, it shouldn’t be allowed into the public domain.

So any predictions on how long before a turn for the better?

surf matt. We are not in recession at the moment. The quantitative easing of the last government took us out of recession. The effects of the tory cuts are yet to be felt but its coming. Just the lack of confidence they engendered has had an effect.

I think it’ll get worse in the New Year and like TJ, i think it will be prolonged.

It doesn’t help that the media reports nothing but doom and gloom and creates panic, people tighten their belts further, spend less so more companies go under, creating more unemployment and more doom and gloom and so on and so on………

Still, on a brighter note, if a recession has a nasty impact on 10% of the population, 90% come through it relatively unscathed and life goes on as normal. The trick is avoiding being one of the 10%.

5 year slide by about 10-20 % [redundnacy repossesions driving oprices do=wna nd non one able to buy]and an annual gain of 4 % after that

Oh I like this guessing game is someone saving this so we can see who was best at it?

It doesn’t help that the media reports nothing but doom and gloom and creates panic

I blame the baners for doing a run on currencies as they know they will get baled out by taxpayers if they just up the interest rates – seriously when did a western capitalist country last default on a loan?

The quantitative easing of the last government took us out of recession

Oh yes. Of course. They saved us. Halleluja.

Get real 🙄

My house has been on the market for over a year. It’s a starter home, and the type of people buying can’t afford to get together a deposit…..the neighbours house was repossessed about a year ago and speaking with the new owner, he had got the house for £105k and had to put down £17k as a deposit to get the mortgage!!

So, pretty much a 16% or so deposit.

Can’t see it getting any better & we are now looking at new builds so they can part ex the house and just take it off us.

We are not in recession at the moment.

😆 😆 😆

Someone has a lot of faith in distorted information and government spin.

IMO the “official” recession was just a little taster of what’s to come.

I like to get my predictions from this guy:

Richard Heinberg on “the end of growth”

House prices seem to be static or rising slightly where I am. I don’t predict a prolonged slump as some do and several of the people I deal with have reported a boom in sales/profits/work in the last 6 months.And I’ve no idea how we have so many unemployed, one member of my family is freelance and between “proper” jobs has been employed every single time within a week of their last employment ending, and offered a permanent placement at the end of every one of those jobs. While not jobs in their field, they’re jobs and they pay well enough.

It’s laughable to think that some people seem to want to blame the current governments policies for putting us back into recession.

What happened in the the decade before the credit crunch, were we prudently putting away money for a rainy day? Paying a reasonable price for a house? Not buying a new car every 3 years on credit?

It’s easy to point the finger at the government, the reality is we all put ourselves in this position by believing that growth could never cease and that houses would continually shite money.

I’m not old but I do remember the recession of the early nineties, how dod everyone else forget?

As for house prices, I would say no real increases for close to a decade now.

I would say no real increases for close to a decade now.

I would say that house prices went up by 200-300% in the decade before the recession, and have fallen back by about 20%. Still a long way to go before they are affordable for most (without signing up to a crippling level of debt).

Ziggy – sensible words. Good to see not everyone lives with their head in the clouds.

House prices are a tricky one. Sale prices are not the problem per se, sales volumes are.

The market is running well below normal levels at the moment (used to average 100,000 per month, now it’s more like 50-60,000), so the lack of supply is tending to keep prices high. There are a lot of houses out there which are nominally for sale but which have not had the slightest interest shown in them, and which would need to be reduced substantially to get them sold in a reasonable time period.

I don’t think we’ll see housing price falls, more the continuation of people sticking with what they have, at least for the next few years.

Recession? Again, I don’t think so, more a long period of prolonged nothingness, where we bump along the bottom with not-quite-but-nearly growth. Certainly, I don’t see any net growth worth talking about in the next three years.

Ziggy’s spot-on; we are the ones to blame, who borrowed recklessly based on cheap credit. How many times did I hear of people boasting of the 0% credit card they’d stuck a bunch of debt on? Sure, it was zero interest, but when was the principal going to be paid off? Yes, the banks didn’t help, but we all have to take our share of the blame.

I earn a good salary, enough that if I posted it up here I’d have cries of “no-one’s worth that sort of money” but I buy secondhand cars, secondhand bikes, and save as much as I can, because you never know when things will turn pear-shaped. I remember the ’70s recession, the ’80s recession, the ’90s recession, and I’ve been expecting one for some time. There was no way the economic carousel could continue, though timing always takes you by surprise.

What happened in the the decade before the credit crunch, were we prudently putting away money for a rainy day? Paying a reasonable price for a house? Not buying a new car every 3 years on credit?

Ok then.
Q1 – Yes, I was saving, maybe not as much as I could have done but I was still saving.
Q2 – Yes, that too, what sort of idiot would borrow more than they could afford to repay on the premis that the profit was guarranteed.
Q3 – Buying a car on credit? What sort of idiot does that?

It must only have been 2-3 years ago that all the resident “experts” on here were insisting that borrowing as much money (or even more than) as you were able to was the most sensible and prudent thing to do. Mortgaging yourself well beyond your means because property was a guarranteed win, and it was impossible to go wrong. Are any of them still out there?

I think things are looking up (honestly) 😀

Have to say though that round here (Dorset) there do now seem to be a lot more houses on the market since the demise of the ill thought out HIP.

but we all have to take our share of the blame.

No we don’t – I’ve not had any debt, other than my mortgage (which I’m overpaying) since I was a student.

Its going to get sooooooooooooo much worse before it gets better. We ain’t seen nothing yet

Unless… UNLESS… you’re a natural Tory. When the big fat tory grandee said the other week “You’ve never had it so good”. He meant “Myself and my freinds have never had it so good”. And its only going to get better

By the time this lot have finished lining their own pockets while dismantling the state, we’ll be back to Victorian levels of inequality.

They’ll be minted. We’ll all be ****ed!!!!!

We are awaiting the effects of the cuts – my belief is they will tip us back into recession and it will be deep and prolonged.

prepared to put a hat on it? 😉

only joking

There was a graph on here some time ago, that showed the cyclical nature of house price rise and falls.

It said the bottom would be in about 18 months time. Anyone got a link?

Personally I don’t see where the money will come from to keep pushing prices up.

It’s laughable to think that some people seem to want to blame the current governments policies for putting us back into recession

Presumably govt economic policies have no effect in the economic world you , sensible surf-mat and pragmatic Peter Poddy inhabit then.

They are not responisible for the current economic situation but it is reasonable to hold them to account for what their response does create. If cutting jobs and spending creates another recession I say oh dear George told you so etc. If a wave of market enterprise overcomes the public spending cuts and leads to growth and massive recovery I think george might just say told you.

rprt – I get your point. I’m in the same position; no car loans, anything on the credit card automatically cleared off each month, no overdraft, overpaying massively on the mortgages. I’ve been responsible, but as a result of everyone else, I now have no personal allowances and a 50% tax rate. Whoopee!

I like the way everyone dismisses mortgages when talking about debt.

Errmmmm…. It’s a HUGE debt.

We are awaiting the effects of the cuts – my belief is they will tip us back into recession and it will be deep and prolonged.

and I am going to copy and paste that and beat you over the head to a bloody pulp with it every Quarterly GDP publication from now for the next 3 years TJ…

No we don’t – I’ve not had any debt, other than my mortgage (which I’m overpaying) since I was a student.

Hear, hear.

Errmmmm…. It’s a HUGE debt.

It’s a debt for somewhere to live which is something we all have to have (though the magnitude of it may be questionable) and in the long term (which a mortgage typically is), it will almost certainly increase in value. That’s not the same as spunking a big loan on a car
that will be near worthless in 7 years 🙄

It’s a debt but then it’s also an investment – only those who think it’s a quick road to riches are fooling themselves about it.

I like the way everyone dismisses mortgages when talking about debt.

Errmmmm…. It’s a HUGE debt.

yes but its backed by an asset

the real liability is the difference between the mortgage and the price you will get for the house less transaction costs. This obviously flexes with the market conditions at the time

Seeing improvement here. I’m allied to the building trade and hit rock bottom a year ago. I’ve seen an upturn since September. My problem is I need customers spending thousands which means often borrowing.
Friends in retail are having bumper years becaue people are blowing the money they have from low interest rates on bikes, TVs etc.

The housing market is so regional it’s difficult to say. We’ve just sold two properties in SW London had 20-30 viewings before we got an offer. Plenty of supply and buyers can really take their time viewing everything before making a decision. Plus it doesn’t help that at the moment you need a big deposit to get a decent mortgage.
Both of our properties were bought near the top of the market (2006 / 2007) and both made close to what was paid for them… one 10% over, one 10% under.

As for the recession, at the moment in the City, there is scarily little sign of it. I know of a number of companies who’ve been paying out selective mid-year pay increases in order to retain specific individuals, results, in the main, are pretty good and it just doesn’t feel like it did back in late ’08/’09.

I have some concerns that we are trying to inflate our way out of debt. With interest rates being kept low despite governmant measures of inflation being above target and QE being talked about again, the value of your money will be dropping even if the actual prices are static.

The Euro situation is also a concern, it seems to be in a precarious position. And while we are fortunate enough not to be part of the currency our links with it and Europe mean we are tied to it’s fate.

Surf-Mat – Member

“We are not in recession at the moment.”

Someone has a lot of faith in distorted information and government spin.

IMO the “official” recession was just a little taster of what’s to come.

Do you actually understand what a recession is? or is your tinfoil hat blocking your thinking?

We are not in recession now. This is an undeniable fact. We are in positive growth.

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=192

Oh yes. Of course. They saved us. Halleluja.

Get real

Don’t forget GB saved the world as well.

Houses were very over valued prior to recession, confidence isn’t there to boost the housing market too far.

Speaking to the MD of a large conservatory building company they’ve seen business increase, his thoughts are people are not moving and are staying put, albeit with the desire for extra space met by a conservatory.

We are not in recession now. This is an undeniable fact. We are in positive growth.

If we had to borrow the money to achieve this growth then surely it is not growth? If a household was spending a fortune servicing its debts, struggling for survival and then managed to borrow a load more cash which stimulated a shopping trip to Tesco’s would we consider them to be on the road to recovery?

You have some very weird ideas about economics TJ.

It’s not a debt if you can/are paying it. That’s a pearl.
Never buy unless you can afford it twice, that’s another.

You have some very weird ideas about economics TJ.

+1 😆

growth is growth. Measured by internationally recognised methods we are in positive growth hence we are not in recession

Surf matt -Follow the link I gave – its easy to understand for the hard of thinking