- is No Deal inevitable?
There’s clearly a great deal of pressure being applied from some quarters for No Deal – not just the ERG, but someone is spending an awful lot of money on a targetted social media campaign. Entryism within the Conservative party is driving a nasty narrative of threats of deselection against moderate MPs, not to mention the likes of Patel, Braverman, Francois and Kerchingski who are seemingly pushing for a no deal outcome on the basis that we won’t be so precious about adopting US food, environmental and consumer standards if we’ve had several months of disruption.
I am confident that such an outcome will spell the end of the Conservative Party (in it’s current form) as a viable party of government. Remember that 2015 aside, the last time that the Conservatives had an outright majority was back in 1996. The party apparently earns more in donations from dead members than living ones, which won’t be lost on some.
What worries me is that the ERG headbangers et al already know this and plan to lurch into an authoritarian rule by executive arrangement – remember that this is pretty much what May is doing right now with postponing votes on her deal.Posted 5 months agoEl-bentMember
No it’s not inevitable. The EU is also playing a strategy which includes running the clock down. They are not engaging with uk companies and institutions who are preparing for no deal because they’re playing the hard ball negotiating tactic. It’ll all get agreed in the final seconds. It was never going to be any other way. This is a political game, the EU are masters and their main tactic is to play the frustration game, to wear their opponents down and make them blink first. It’s worked for them up until now, if we hold our nerve it will be the first time anyone has called their bluff so we’ll see, but if a deal is done it’ll happen at the 59th second of the 59th minute of the eleventh hour.
If we had not underfunded mental health services in this country for so long, we could have headed this brexit bollox off at the pass.Posted 5 months agokimbersSubscriber
Eh, that was blocked democratically, wasn’t it?
that was CETA, which walloonia almost blocked
TTIP was decalred dead by teh german economics minister at the time “[They] have failed because we Europeans did not want to subject ourselves to American demands.” specifically regarding food standards, open up state run enterprises eg NHS to privatisation & give legal weight to corporations to sue governments.
it never reached ratification votes
Funnily enough Liam Fox was a big fan of it, good job hes nowhere near UK/US trade negotiations now….Posted 5 months agorene59Member
No Deal followed in a few years time by bankruptcy, then a bailout by Trump and we become the 51st state in all but name. Scotland goes for 2nd indy referendum but US Navy jets move in to put a stop to the uprising. Feeling threatened that USA has now the worlds largest ever base in the UK, Russia builds its army to annex half of eastern europe. Meanwhile in China…Posted 5 months agokimbersSubscriber
60% chance according to RobertPosted 5 months agoTiRedMember
Do you want to be German or not?
Can I have French instead? Frankly, I’d take either and be happy to move. I could easily move my skills to Switzerland (almost went 10 years ago), or the US, but I’m now at the point where consultancy from a nice french maison looks attractive.Posted 5 months agoNorthwindSubscriber
I think it possibly is the most likely single option- not because people want it, but it’s essentially the only option that can happen without a concensus or a vote. All the other things require a majority pretty much, no deal only needs the absence of a majority- stalemate and paralysis can’t deliver any other options.
My second most likely is “delay but don’t come up with any way to progress past where we are now while we delay”. Less likely, because it still needs some action, it can’t be brought about by inaction. But still more likely than any of the actual productive outcomes, because they all need some sort of plan while it doesn’t.Posted 5 months agobombjackMember
No.Posted 5 months ago
Not even our government (and opposition) are naive and stubborn enough to consider a no deal. Its who blinks first, and they’ll leave it as late as possible.
I can really only see it being an extension of A50, followed by a public vote asking if we go with Mays deal, no deal, or no-leave.
This stops Corbyn calling for a GE, it stops either party loosing face and the vote by rejecting the referendum result, and it stops both parties from throwing us off a cliff through arrogance and blind faith.matydubzMember
The government has already spent god knows how much preparing for a no deal Brexit so it is deffinately an option.
My partner is a civil servant and the general opinion within her department is that the majority of her colleagues will be changing roles come March 27th.Posted 5 months agochewkwMember
The pound is strengthening today on the back of tory mps resigning from the party, so the markets seems to think the chance of no deal is getting smaller not greater.
Ooohh … that is true too. It looks like the splinter group is trying to get all the remainders vote making them a force to reckon with.Posted 5 months agofatoldgitMember
I think no deal is becoming more likely by the day, or vote into the commons.Posted 4 months ago
After all it is the default situation if nothing can be agreed and more importantly any extension to negotiations or timescale to leaving has to be ok’d by ALL the other member states , it would only take 1 to break ranks and it’s all overcurto80Member
@jonworth on Twitter is worth looking at. He has no-deal as more unlikely after today, with the better odds spread evenly across the softer Brexit / remain options.
I worry LINO will, with one final throw of the dice, try to get Parliament to vote on holding a public vote between Her deal and No deal (ie: no remain on the ballot paper). That might be a convenient way out for the remaining Tory Brexiteer rebels, although the DUP wouldn’t back that motion so it would still be very tight.Posted 4 months agoBoardinBobSubscriber
Tories won’t be daft enough to call a GE
Let’s assume MV4 happens next week and fails
2 year extension then happens
Tories remain in power and try to sort something in those 2 years (which won’t happen)
Either way its a delay for at least 2 years.
Only the monumentally stupid or evil actually want no deal and thankfully they’re in the minorityPosted 4 months agokerleyMember
I think there will be an 11th hour parliamentary vote between no deal or retract.
Retract will win.
Agree. I would revoke and then let the dust settle for a few years. Of the 17 million that voted Brexit only 3 million were actually that bothered about the EU before the whole divisive referendum happened. The rest will just get over it and move on to things that actually matter.Posted 4 months agomikewsmithMember
I cannot see a point in the MP’s voting anymore – obvious they cannot come to any agreement, even when doing the indicative voting.
Then you have misunderstood the point of those votes. It was the first chance to see what there was and was not a desire for.Posted 4 months ago
The next step is to review that and move the votes on to things that can gain a majority.dovebikerMember
Haven’t the EU stated that “no deal” means absolutely no transition – we immediately crash-out and start trading on 3rd country / WTO terms which would be catastrophic for areas like farming and many industries. There’s already a majority in parliament against “no deal” and it would be the point that only the real head-banger Euro-sceptics would vote for it.Posted 4 months ago
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