I think it’s the most likely option at the moment.

It’s the default position, and there is no majority for an alternative.

No deal is the favourite at the bookies too (though ironically, the least likely to win IF we have another referendum).

There’s clearly a great deal of pressure being applied from some quarters for No Deal – not just the ERG, but someone is spending an awful lot of money on a targetted social media campaign. Entryism within the Conservative party is driving a nasty narrative of threats of deselection against moderate MPs, not to mention the likes of Patel, Braverman, Francois and Kerchingski who are seemingly pushing for a no deal outcome on the basis that we won’t be so precious about adopting US food, environmental and consumer standards if we’ve had several months of disruption.

I am confident that such an outcome will spell the end of the Conservative Party (in it’s current form) as a viable party of government. Remember that 2015 aside, the last time that the Conservatives had an outright majority was back in 1996. The party apparently earns more in donations from dead members than living ones, which won’t be lost on some.

What worries me is that the ERG headbangers et al already know this and plan to lurch into an authoritarian rule by executive arrangement – remember that this is pretty much what May is doing right now with postponing votes on her deal.

No it’s not inevitable. The EU is also playing a strategy which includes running the clock down. They are not engaging with uk companies and institutions who are preparing for no deal because they’re playing the hard ball negotiating tactic. It’ll all get agreed in the final seconds. It was never going to be any other way. This is a political game, the EU are masters and their main tactic is to play the frustration game, to wear their opponents down and make them blink first. It’s worked for them up until now, if we hold our nerve it will be the first time anyone has called their bluff so we’ll see, but if a deal is done it’ll happen at the 59th second of the 59th minute of the eleventh hour.

If we had not underfunded mental health services in this country for so long, we could have headed this brexit bollox off at the pass.

molgrips

Eh, that was blocked democratically, wasn’t it?

that was CETA, which walloonia almost blocked
TTIP was decalred dead by teh german economics minister at the time “[They] have failed because we Europeans did not want to subject ourselves to American demands.” specifically regarding food standards, open up state run enterprises eg NHS to privatisation & give legal weight to corporations to sue governments.
it never reached ratification votes

Funnily enough Liam Fox was a big fan of it, good job hes nowhere near UK/US trade negotiations now….

Do you want to be German or not?

Right now, if offered, I would take that.

I’m one generation away from qualifying for a German passport – I’d happily learn the language and relocate away from the current cluster****.

No Deal followed in a few years time by bankruptcy, then a bailout by Trump and we become the 51st state in all but name. Scotland goes for 2nd indy referendum but US Navy jets move in to put a stop to the uprising. Feeling threatened that USA has now the worlds largest ever base in the UK, Russia builds its army to annex half of eastern europe. Meanwhile in China…

60% chance according to Robert

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=2281497495508316&id=1498276767163730

Do you want to be German or not?

Can I have French instead? Frankly, I’d take either and be happy to move. I could easily move my skills to Switzerland (almost went 10 years ago), or the US, but I’m now at the point where consultancy from a nice french maison looks attractive.

So if we leave with no deal, does that mean we can’t start anymore new deals that are good for the UK?
I doubt it cos all our politicians are incompetent wet snowflakes, not a backbone between them.
Where’s Thatcher when you actually need her?

It’s going to have to be a pretty strong backbone to replace the negotiating power of an additional 27 countries GDPs.

“all i want is your simple yes no answer and a sentence or two explaining why. no bickering. no quoting others”

😔

OK No. Because there are other options.

Yes.

Our government and parliament don’t have the skills to outmanouever the date they set in law.

we’re still arguing over rocket design

I think you’re being over generous. Most of the wannabe Martians are still arguing that is incredibly simple and we can get there without a rocket.

No, and neither is Brexit.

JP

How about no to No Deal because Jezza agrees to back the Deal in exchange for a GE then stands aside for somebody more electable?

I think it possibly is the most likely single option- not because people want it, but it’s essentially the only option that can happen without a concensus or a vote. All the other things require a majority pretty much, no deal only needs the absence of a majority- stalemate and paralysis can’t deliver any other options.

My second most likely is “delay but don’t come up with any way to progress past where we are now while we delay”. Less likely, because it still needs some action, it can’t be brought about by inaction. But still more likely than any of the actual productive outcomes, because they all need some sort of plan while it doesn’t.

I believe we will leave with May’s deal due to the “running down the clock” as has been mentioned.

Best part of this thread was P-Jay’s Mars analogy

No Deal won’t happen.

Will either be a last minute vote through of current deal or an extension to A50. My money is on extension to A50.

(My money was literally on withdrawal of A50 at 5/1 but looks like I have lost that. Don’t gamble kids.)

The pound is strengthening today on the back of tory mps resigning from the party, so the markets seems to think the chance of no deal is getting smaller not greater.

No.
Not even our government (and opposition) are naive and stubborn enough to consider a no deal. Its who blinks first, and they’ll leave it as late as possible.
I can really only see it being an extension of A50, followed by a public vote asking if we go with Mays deal, no deal, or no-leave.
This stops Corbyn calling for a GE, it stops either party loosing face and the vote by rejecting the referendum result, and it stops both parties from throwing us off a cliff through arrogance and blind faith.

Best part of this thread was P-Jay’s Mars analogy

Thanks Dude 😉

The government has already spent god knows how much preparing for a no deal Brexit so it is deffinately an option.

My partner is a civil servant and the general opinion within her department is that the majority of her colleagues will be changing roles come March 27th.

The pound is strengthening today on the back of tory mps resigning from the party, so the markets seems to think the chance of no deal is getting smaller not greater.

Ooohh … that is true too. It looks like the splinter group is trying to get all the remainders vote making them a force to reckon with.

I can really only see it being an extension of A50

That requires approval of the other members, why would they want to put up with May’s can-kicking for any longer. Revoke does not require EOU approval, just guts.

anyone care to update their thoughts on this?

i can see it becoming more and more likely. it sucks.

I think there will be an 11th hour parliamentary vote between no deal or retract.
Retract will win.

The pinsors have closed, there are no other options.

Interesting now if no deal goes through. Obvious the MP’s cannot agree on anything and to revoke A50 would go against the public Brexit vote.

Pity they cannot come to some solution but not totally shocked either – party politics before the UK!!

I think no deal is becoming more likely by the day, or vote into the commons.
After all it is the default situation if nothing can be agreed and more importantly any extension to negotiations or timescale to leaving has to be ok’d by ALL the other member states , it would only take 1 to break ranks and it’s all over

@jonworth on Twitter is worth looking at. He has no-deal as more unlikely after today, with the better odds spread evenly across the softer Brexit / remain options.

I worry LINO will, with one final throw of the dice, try to get Parliament to vote on holding a public vote between Her deal and No deal (ie: no remain on the ballot paper). That might be a convenient way out for the remaining Tory Brexiteer rebels, although the DUP wouldn’t back that motion so it would still be very tight.

any extension to negotiations or timescale to leaving has to be ok’d by ALL the other member states

Revoke A50.
Take back control.
Don’t beg.

Tories won’t be daft enough to call a GE

Let’s assume MV4 happens next week and fails

2 year extension then happens

Tories remain in power and try to sort something in those 2 years (which won’t happen)

Either way its a delay for at least 2 years.

Only the monumentally stupid or evil actually want no deal and thankfully they’re in the minority

I cannot see a point in the MP’s voting anymore – obvious they cannot come to any agreement, even when doing the indicative voting.

Which leaves what – no deal? Can’t see the public wanting another 12/24 months of Brexit talks.

Whoever is in power, Labour or tory, they have the same predicaments..

A GE is just more can kicking.

It will enevitably boil down to suicide no deal V’s retract article 50.

To answer the question directly – no.

I think there will be an 11th hour parliamentary vote between no deal or retract.
Retract will win.

Agree. I would revoke and then let the dust settle for a few years. Of the 17 million that voted Brexit only 3 million were actually that bothered about the EU before the whole divisive referendum happened. The rest will just get over it and move on to things that actually matter.

@xracer, Don’t fall for may’s lie about the public mood being one of “wanting it to be over with”. Even if her deal passes, we have years more of this. Same with “no deal”. It’s never going to be “over with”.

I cannot see a point in the MP’s voting anymore – obvious they cannot come to any agreement, even when doing the indicative voting.

Then you have misunderstood the point of those votes. It was the first chance to see what there was and was not a desire for.
The next step is to review that and move the votes on to things that can gain a majority.

Haven’t the EU stated that “no deal” means absolutely no transition – we immediately crash-out and start trading on 3rd country / WTO terms which would be catastrophic for areas like farming and many industries. There’s already a majority in parliament against “no deal” and it would be the point that only the real head-banger Euro-sceptics would vote for it.