is No Deal inevitable?

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  • is No Deal inevitable?
  • alpin
    Member

    i know, i know… there’s the other thread, but all i want is your simple yes no answer and a sentence or two explaining why. no bickering. no quoting others.

    reason is, i’m worried. still waiting on thee results of the German citizenship language test and time is running down. if i don’t hand in my paperwork before 29th March then i would have to give up my British citizenship if given the offer of being German.

    it’s hard to tell with things i read in the media what the outcome will be.

    want to share your thoughts?

    No. (I think remain is inevitable.)

    Premier Icon weeksy
    Subscriber

    couldn’t care less.

    PrinceJohn
    Member

    At the moment I would say yes. But in 2 days time that might be the complete opposite.

    Never has the saying a week is a long time in politics been more apt.

    PrinceJohn
    Member

    couldn’t care less.

    Why not?

    The biggest political decision in our lifetime?

    Premier Icon julians
    Subscriber

    no its definitely not inevitable, but there is a chance no deal will happen. My gut feel is the most likely outcome is a variation of mays deal will get approved at the last second.

    Look to the foreign currency market for a steer on what the traders think will happen, pound strengthening against euro = higher chance of Mays deal or cancel brexit, pound weakening = higher chance of no deal.

    Premier Icon andybrad
    Subscriber

    basically its a ruse.

    It was never going to happen. The vote was just a smokescreen. They will now fall back on a referendum and people will vote to stay.

    Premier Icon dissonance
    Subscriber

    Situation is too confused to predict.
    Wouldnt be surprised with No deal/referendum/Mays deal/just give up and remain.

    Premier Icon kelvin
    Subscriber

    No

    I don’t believe that the politicians will let that happen.
    I suspect, that the current “Mrs May” deal, with only very minor tweaks, if any will get put to the vote at the last minute, and despite the message “not running down the clock” that is exactly what it will be, and PM’s will either have to choose to reject it and have no deal, or accept it.

    I think they will accept it.

    Premier Icon tomhoward
    Subscriber

    Haven’t a clue.

    Which is what terrifies me.

    Premier Icon kelvin
    Subscriber

    I think they will accept it.

    Agreed. Which moves the threat of “no deal” from March this year to, what, 2021 ? Plenty of time for companies to reorganise and get the hell out of the political mess that is the UK.

    [dupe thread?]

    Premier Icon molgrips
    Subscriber

    Inevitable? No. Likely? Not sure. Possible? Definitely.

    Premier Icon senor j
    Subscriber

    Looks like it to me.

    P-Jay
    Member

    No.

    My 2p.

    Very few people actually want ‘No Deal’ only the real nutters and the JRBs of the world who’ll short Sterling and make billions.

    Everyone knows Brexit is bad for the UK, a few pretend it won’t be because it will make them rich or they’re so xenophobic they’ll accept it for a sense of control of ‘their’ borders.

    With every passing poll, they swing more towards ‘remain’, but it’s still surprisingly close and polls suggested remain would win the referendum so it’s not done deal.

    I believe May’s Plan is to run the clock down to the last possible moment, then at the 11th hour present the house with ‘it’s my Deal or No Deal’ hoping they’ll blink first – vote for her deal (which the EU still hasn’t accepted) and she’s delivered Brexit in a form that probably the most palatable, but almost ironically the most stupid – we keep all the benefits of membership, but waive any and all control over it’s future direction, but hey – where can Farage and the ERG go then when we’ve left?

    I believe the Remainer plan is similar, run the clock down – even now MPs and the Government are talking about extensions – the EU has very categorically said that they won’t allow any extensions for further negotiations as they believe they are over – they will however allow an extension if it allows for a meaningful change of position, in other words – “you can have an extension, if it comes with a second vote”. May may well go for this, because then she didn’t fail to deliver Brexit, hardcore Brexiteers can blame the EU, as they always will anyway. UKIP is dead and the public won’t want to go through this bullshit again, not for a very, very long time.

    Premier Icon FuzzyWuzzy
    Subscriber

    I’m starting to think it is, for it not to be it will take the staunchly pro-Brexit Tories to blink first and admit to it not being a good bargaining chip to leave on the table as it hurts the UK more than the EU. Given no deal is what will happen unless they do blink then I’d now say it’s more likely than not to happen.

    Premier Icon cloudnine
    Subscriber

    Jeremy will save us.. not sure how… but it will involve a few marrows, a bit of mumbling, a spade and a threat to destroy Northern Ireland with nukes before he scraps them.

    Premier Icon cookeaa
    Subscriber

    Yes!

    Appart from the possibility of No…

    *Nobody knows.

    Premier Icon kimbers
    Subscriber

    no one knows

    including these companies

    Sony
    Nissan
    Dyson
    Panasonic
    Lloyds
    Unilever
    Goldman Sachs
    Barclays
    Airbus
    Flybmi
    P&O
    HSBC
    JP Morgan
    UBS
    Ford
    Hitachi
    Toshiba
    AXA
    Honda
    Moneygram
    Philips
    European Banking Authority
    European Medicines Agency
    Bank of America

    footflaps
    Member

    We bought 3 months of cat food the other day, just in case. Can’t see them prioritising kibble when the food riots start…

    MSP
    Member

    I now think it is the most likely option. There is no leadership for remain.

    jimster01
    Member

    What MSP said, remain has no viable leadership.

    P-Jay
    Member

    I’m starting to think it is, for it not to be it will take the staunchly pro-Brexit Tories to blink first and admit to it not being a good bargaining chip to leave on the table as it hurts the UK more than the EU. Given no deal is what will happen unless they do blink then I’d now say it’s more likely than not to happen.

    They’re a pain the arse for May for sure, but whilst there’s maybe 90 Tory MPs who are completely for Leave, but they’re very much in the ‘Deal’ Group. There’s only 10 or so real **** who form the ERG, but some of them want a deal, they wave around ‘No Deal’ because they know it would hurt the EU (not nearly as much as us of course) it’s the ‘bite your nose off’ bargaining chip.

    Corbyn is certainly a Leaver, he voted against the UK joining the EEC in 75, Voted against the Maastricht Treaty in 93, opposed the Lison Treaty in 2008 and back a referendum to withdraw from the EU in 2011, but I don’t think he has as much control of his MPs as he would like (total). I think of all the main players, he’d be the most ‘no deal’ as it would align with his goals of a devalued £ and mass employment, making plastic dog shits for China I suppose.

    Ewan
    Member

    It’s the most likely outcome.

    The ERG don’t need to win anything, all they need to do is prevent anyone else winning, and then they get nodeal by default.

    My current estimate is 60% no deal, 40% long extension of a year followed by either Norway or remain.

    701arvn
    Member

    Whatever your position on Brexit, it is surely ridiculous that the government (including MP’s of all parties here), seem unable to manage an orderly withdrawal from the EU. 40 years of integration will not be undone literally overnight without significant damage to the economy.

    I’m about 50/50 at this point because May is and will put the good of the Tory Party before the good of the country. At the same time Corbyn just wants to get elected, he may be left in charge of a dumpster fire, but he doesn’t seem bothered.

    So, on balance, it is entirely probable we are ****.

    No it’s not inevitable. The EU is also playing a strategy which includes running the clock down. They are not engaging with uk companies and institutions who are preparing for no deal because they’re playing the hard ball negotiating tactic. It’ll all get agreed in the final seconds. It was never going to be any other way. This is a political game, the EU are masters and their main tactic is to play the frustration game, to wear their opponents down and make them blink first. It’s worked for them up until now, if we hold our nerve it will be the first time anyone has called their bluff so we’ll see, but if a deal is done it’ll happen at the 59th second of the 59th minute of the eleventh hour.

    P-Jay
    Member

    Whatever your position on Brexit, it is surely ridiculous that the government (including MP’s of all parties here), seem unable to manage an orderly withdrawal from the EU. 40 years of integration will not be undone literally overnight without significant damage to the economy.

    It was inevitable given the way we did it – arse about face.

    It was akin to running a referendum on leaving the Earth to live on Mars before you work out how to do it, and then letting the team who want to leave Earth promise everything and anything they want to about how easy it was and how great Mars was to live on, and then making everyone else work out how to do it.

    The ridiculous part for me is that 2 and a bit years later, less than 40 days before take-off, even though we now all know we’ve been lied to and it’s going to be terrible, we’re still arguing over rocket design.

    Premier Icon molgrips
    Subscriber

    but if a deal is done

    Hasn’t a deal already been done?

    Premier Icon kimbers
    Subscriber

    This is a political game, the EU are masters and their main tactic is to play the frustration game, to wear their opponents down and make them blink first. It’s worked for them up until now, if we hold our nerve it will be the first time anyone has called their bluff so we’ll see, but if a deal is done it’ll happen at the 59th second of the 59th minute of the eleventh hour.

    so you are saying they always agree a deal at the last minute, but that theyve never agreed a deal at the last minute?

    the reality is that they didnt blink on TTIP, they pulled it rather than compromise, they didnt blink on CETA, true at the last minute they let Greece off a tonne of debt, but that was to let them stay within the EU without going bust, arent we the opposite of that?

    just sounds like delusions of grandeur that somehow if we keep the gun pointed to our head at the last minute the EU will fold because were so great?

    David Davis used it as an excuse to justify achieving nothing as Brexit Secretary & of course industry will have to trigger its no deal contingencies before the last minute,as we are already seeing- Its a self-defeating tactic of epic idiocy & arrogance

    There is simply no credible evidence to suggest the EU will concede at the last minute

    Premier Icon tomhoward
    Subscriber

    That’s another thing that seems to have been lost in a lot of the coverage. March 29th is the start of a transition period. The ‘deal’ outlines whatever help the EU will help with vs what we have to do to get that help. No deal is us sticking two fingers up to any help with the process. Even if we get a deal, that’s for a finite amount of time, at the end of which the EU will stop helping and whatever the cretins in power (Tories don’t have to call another election for 3 years yet, quite clever to call it when they did IMO, even though they had a scare just scraping through) have negotiated with the rest of the world, will start with no option to (quickly) come back in to the EU if we’ve got sweet Fanny Adams, or worse, been bent over by economies, that didn’t vote to ruin themselves before entering into negotiations, that know we are desperate for any trade deal.

    Whats that Mr Bigamericancorp? You want to undercut all our locally produced stuff, and all we have to give in return is let you take over the NHS, saving the govt billions? Now that’s a deal I can get behind! where do I sign’

    Premier Icon richmtb
    Subscriber

    The ridiculous part for me is that 2 and a bit years later, less than 40 days before take-off, even though we now all know we’ve been lied to and it’s going to be terrible, we’re still arguing over rocket design.

    Is a rather great analogy

    We’ll slide inexorably towards a no deal because its the only thing no one needs to agree on for it to happen anyway

    slimjim78
    Member

    Do you want to be German or not?

    Follow your answer.

    Premier Icon Kryton57
    Subscriber

    basically its a ruse.

    It was never going to happen. The vote was just a smokescreen. They will now fall back on a referendum and people will vote to stay.

    I and many I’ve spoken to believe this, possibly even without the referendum.   M

    piha
    Member

    Tricky question.

    I think No Deal is currently slight favourite as the ERG headbangers (and Jezza Corbyn) can stop May getting her deal through parliament. I believe that if a deal hasn’t been agreed by 29th March, then No Deal is the default position.

    However, anything could change. May could ceed more concessions to the ERG headbangers, giving them more of what they want. Then they might vote Mays deal through.

    ETA – I believe another referendum will not happen and even if it did I think Leave would return a bigger majority.

    Premier Icon bikebouy
    Subscriber

    i know, i know… there’s the other thread, but all i want is your simple yes no answer and a sentence or two explaining why. no bickering. no quoting others.

    There is another thread, you got that right.

    No, a deal will be signed at the last moment whereby all these morons of parliament will proclaim “we dun gud we did” and lots of Bolli will be quaffed and expense sheets populated with the word “other” scrawled on and £’000’s added to thier current expense scam.

    Blohard will implode, Farrage has already got his German Passport so he’s off to rest his backside in a silo somewhere in the Black Forest. IDS will have IBS and Rees-Fogg will grow a breard and have In/Out tattooed on his knuckles as he drags them behind him. Grandad Corbyn will saunter off reading children’s books with large print and huge illustrations of a by-gone era when fairies ruled at the bottom of his garden. Cable will stand tall and say “told you so” and retire.

    chewkw
    Member

    is No Deal inevitable?

    Absolutely 100% yes.

    😀

    Premier Icon kelvin
    Subscriber

    Do you want to be German or not?

    Ooo… is that an option? I get to keep my rights?!? Sweet. I don’t fancy moving out of Yorkshire though… can I become German and stay here?

    TiRed
    Member

    No. I do not believe that politicians will vote for the country to become materially poorer. They at least understand that those things we take for granted in the fabric of society, including the hallowed NHS, have to be paid for. I’ve said before that the electorate are basically economically illiterate. Politicians are not. And everything comes down to economics in the end.

    Do I think we’ll leave at all? That one I’m less sure of. I always expected a Norway-like arrangement to prevail eventually, as I accept that a large proportion of the electorate are unhappy with the current arrangements. That’s a mandate for a change, not economic suicide.

    Premier Icon molgrips
    Subscriber

    the reality is that they didnt blink on TTIP, they pulled it rather than compromise

    Eh, that was blocked democratically, wasn’t it? Despite the EU being not democratic, or something..

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