Yes, emerging from the Brexit thread but I wanted to consider this on its own.

What is the downside from the UK Government offering a referendum on NI leaving the UK to become part of the Republic, assuming this was the eventual result?

The whole Backstop issue disappears.

Boris can hold it up as a shing beacon of democracy in action.

The “Irish Troubes” permanently resolved.

Average GDP for rUK rises, no DUP bungs required.

I guess he currently needs the support of the DUP, though that might not be necessary after a snap GE.

The Scots would demand another referendum, though the two situations are quite different.

And there’s the risk of Loyalist violence in the event of reunifaction.

Other than that, I don’t think I’m close enough to understanding the rest of the issues, but I’m sure I’ve missed some.

Other than an emotional connection to the people of NI, would anyone on here object?

He would immediately lose his working majority in the Commons when the DUP desert him in disgust?

I don’t think you fully grasp the depth of division involved here.

I don’t either but I still have to listen, most weeks in the summer,  to thousands of people, very few of whom are Irish, marching up and down  banging drums and remembering events that happened 329 years ago.

Boris can’t fix that. He can only make it worse.

You’ve missed a very important point – do the Republic want the 6 counties back?

You’ve missed a very important point – do the Republic want the 6 counties back?

I’m assuming the ROI would need a referendum too.

You only need to look at a map to see that Northern Ireland has no business being British.

Other than an emotional connection to the people of NI, would anyone on here object?

Not to the idea, but I would to the elements of the loyalist nutjob brigade who would quite possiblty migrate to near me in the west coast of Scotland bringing even more of that sort of nonsense with them. And I don’t need any more of that, thanks.

@ loddrik – NI is part of the UK, it is not in Great Britain

The “Irish Troubes” permanently resolved.

Very much doubt that.

If you think Brexit is divisive, it’ll be nothing compared to the bloody mess of a NI reunification referendum. No amount of “the will of the people” is going to convince the other side, and worse if it’s a tiny majority like Brexit.

The “troubles” were in part resolved or at least put on hold, because of the open border which was facilitated by both UK and Ireland being in the EU. There is no solution with Brexit that keeps this resolved other then revoke Article 50 or Ireland quits the EU and has an open border with the UK (or joins the UK!). Everything else will spark anger somewhere (border in Irish sea, a “virtual” border, border between Ireland and EU, etc. They’re all reasons for someone to shove a bomb somewhere).

OR!!!!
Send all the folk who live in NI south of the border, then give the NI land to the Israelis for a Jewish home state and they can leave the Palestinians to their desert fun.

After all, Boris is Britain Trump. He could solve all of these issues, (See no backstop border issue now!), get the whole Korea thing sorted as well and basically out Trump the Donald and be back in time for tea and crumpets. Can-do I say!

Not to the idea, but I would to the elements of the loyalist nutjob brigade who would quite possiblty migrate to near me in the west coast of Scotland bringing even more of that sort of nonsense with them. And I don’t need any more of that, thanks.

Aye fair do’s.

Corbyn/Labour are in favour of IR. Polling says the majority of Tories would drop NI in favour of Brexit.

You only need to look at a map to see that Northern Ireland has no business being British.

By this logic Scotland and Wales should cease to exist and the whole island should be England. What about Portugal? Andorra, I could go on.

I suspect that most “unionists” in NI are fed up of it all and would rather be with Eire in the EU than with the UK outside it.

Militant unionists and ” the unionist community” are not the same thing. I suspect a decent majority for reunification if the UK crashes out and thus no real nastyness from the unionist paramilitaries – whoa re basically criminal gangs anyway.

The “troubles” were in part resolved or at least put on hold, because of the open border which was facilitated by both UK and Ireland being in the EU. There is no solution with Brexit that keeps this resolved other then revoke Article 50 or Ireland quits the EU. Everything else will spark anger somewhere (border in Irish sea, a “virtual” border, border between Ireland and EU, etc. They’re all reasons for someone to shove a bomb somewhere).

Neither of which are likely to happen. Hence IR being a potential solution.

@scotroutes – for balance, the Tories would sell their own children for bio-fuel if they thought it would further their shitty careers. This was never about sovereignty, it’s about a bunch of pricks from Eton wrestling power from each other and stamping all over those less fortunate than them

You only need to look at a map to see that Northern Ireland has no business being British.

What about all the other islands and remote bits of GB?

Part of the problem in NI is that geographically part of it wants to be part of the UK and part want’s to be with the republic, so just ‘letting’ it join the republic would piss of about as many people as it pleased.

I suspect that most “unionists” in NI are fed up of it all and would rather be with Eire in the EU than with the UK outside it.

It would be easy to reach that conclusion but as an outsider looking-in, I’d rather not.

The immediate downside is it would jeopardise the progress that has been made in NI towards a sustainable peace. And surely it is only really worth having a referendum if it has a reasonable chance of succeeding – certainly I think more people are in favour of a united Ireland today than may have been the case in the past, but it still feels like a big leap to say it would be a majority.

It would be easy to reach that conclusion but as an outsider looking-in, I’d rather not.

Fair enough but thats the jist I get from reading around it. My best guess but that is all it is

We pretty much have offered them a new ref: The NI Act 1998 has provision for a new referendum: https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/irish-reunification

Not sure it would pass though (see graph at the bottom!)

Not to the idea, but I would to the elements of the loyalist nutjob brigade who would quite possiblty migrate to near me in the west coast of Scotland bringing even more of that sort of nonsense with them.

Quite terrifying prospect actually

Do people really want to go back to trouble time?

The backstop is just EU stirring up issues …

Boris is the last hope for Conservative party at the moment and if he makes a one wrong move they will disappear from history same goes with Labour. These two main parties are in trouble times at the moment.

I’m assuming the ROI would need a referendum too.

The whole democratic approach to re-unification is laid out in the Good Friday Agreement.

It will probably be by super-majority referendum in both territories to avoid any 48/52 nonsense.

Yes, it will happen. Maybe not this year or next, but it will happen. The demographics will come into play and there will soon be a Catholic, republic leaning majority in the north.

Then some politician will come along (maybe not one of the present lot) with an eye to his or her legacy. Think Tone B. Liar, and he will give anything and everything away just to prove how good he/she is. Tone gave just about everything to the IRA to get them to stop killing people – that hasn’t really worked has it. What happened to the weapons? No-one knows. Soldiers can be prosecuted but not the terrorists/freedom fighters. His latter day successor will similarly give away everything to “solve the crisis”. As with everything the will of the people will count for little. If you don’t think that then just remember how hard our elected representatives are working to try and defeat the result of the democratically held Brexit referendum!

It will happen, when one or other of the main parties has a big enough majority to totally ignore the Ulster MPs and other dissenters. There will be a massive publicity campaign; Project Fear Mk2. Then the change will be steamrollered through.

It might be five years, or ten, or even twenty, but in the context of the centuries old conflict that is a very short timescale.

And if you read the history of the island and the various factions that have been wielding influence over the centuries the present set up makes no sense at all. Everything, all through history, has been a pig’s ear of a mess, long before Cromwell, the Apprentice Boys or the Battle of the Boyne.

RoI has a higher GDP per capita than UK, but I suspect they’d find the net expenditure of taking on NI to be financially crippling. Not saying it couldn’t be done, but UK would have to hand over a big dowry.

Have you seen the DUP?

Do they look like rational people to you?

And you’ve heard of these guys, right? Do you think they’ve gone away? That they’ve all taken up basket weaving and pottery classes?

As someone who spent a lot of time in Newry (bandit country) and Derry at the height of the troubles, one of the most depressing aspects of this whole debacle is just how little the Brexiteers understand about Irish History. And it is a willful ignorance. They seem to care even less

You’ve missed a very important point – do the Republic want the 6 counties back?

but I suspect they’d find the net expenditure of taking on NI to be financially crippling.

I think Eire is a great place but I would worry that NI and all the crap that goes with it would just be a drain on their finances and other places would suffer

Born in NI before the Troubles started and grew up there. If you think that Brexit is becoming a subject with quasi-religious polarisation, the subject of reunification would take that up a notch or several. The headbangers are already capable of civil unrest, so giving them a new cause to fight over is terrifying.

The “Irish Troubes” permanently resolved.

You must realise the reason for conflict is that there are groups on both side of the the argument?

Its a simple majority in NI according to the belfast agreement – I suppose it could be agreed it would have to be a super majority?

1. The participants endorse the commitment made by the British and Irish Governments that, in a new British-Irish Agreement replacing the Anglo-Irish Agreement, they will:

(i) recognise the legitimacy of whatever choice is freely exercised by a majority of the people of Northern Ireland with regard to its status, whether they prefer to continue to support the Union with Great Britain or a sovereign united Ireland;

(ii) recognise that it is for the people of the island of Ireland alone, by agreement between the two parts respectively and without external impediment, to exercise their right of self-determination on the basis of consent, freely and concurrently given, North and South, to bring about a united Ireland, if that is their wish, accepting that this right must be achieved and exercised with and subject to the agreement and consent of a majority of the people of Northern Ireland;

(iii) acknowledge that while a substantial section of the people in Northern Ireland share the legitimate wish of a majority of the people of the island of Ireland for a united Ireland, the present wish of a majority of the people of Northern Ireland, freely exercised and legitimate, is to maintain the Union and, accordingly, that Northern Ireland’s status as part of the United Kingdom reflects and relies upon that wish; and that it would be wrong to make any change in the status of Northern Ireland save with the consent of a majority of its people;

(iv) affirm that if, in the future, the people of the island of Ireland exercise their right of self-determination on the basis set out in sections (i) and (ii) above to bring about a united Ireland, it will be a binding obligation on both Governments to introduce and support in their respective Parliaments legislation to give effect to that wish;

(v) affirm that whatever choice is freely exercised by a majority of the people of Northern Ireland, the power of the sovereign government with jurisdiction there shall be exercised with rigorous impartiality on behalf of all the people in the diversity of their identities and traditions and shall be founded on the principles of full respect for, and equality of, civil, political, social and cultural rights, of freedom from discrimination for all citizens, and of parity of esteem and of just and equal treatment for the identity, ethos, and aspirations of both communities;

(vi) recognise the birthright of all the people of Northern Ireland to identify themselves and be accepted as Irish or British, or both, as they may so choose, and accordingly confirm that their right to hold both British and Irish citizenship is accepted by both Governments and would not be affected by any future change in the status of Northern Ireland.

2. The participants also note that the two Governments have accordingly undertaken in the context of this comprehensive political agreement, to propose and support changes in, respectively, the Constitution of Ireland and in British legislation relating to the constitutional status of Northern Ireland.

I spent a bit of time in the north and in the south. And have a lot of Irish friends from both sides of the border.
I would not be happy discussing this with any of them.

There’s a reason nobody is really actively pushing for reunification. Joint EU membership and the Good Friday Agreement means It’s effectively been parked as an issue.

The Brexiteers seem to have no appreciation of this. A return to a de facto civil war in Ireland is something else they’re willing to endorse in pursuit of their ideological lunacy.

Nobody else in any part of Ireland, bar the men in balaclava’s, want to see a return to that. Ever.

The ERG idiots around Boris seem to have no comprehension of how emotionally charged the idea of a hard border in Ireland is. But that’s nationalism for you. This whole thing is driven by English exceptionalism which doesn’t have a good track record in Ireland

If they absolutely insist on pursuing a hard Brexit, which will necessitate some kind of hard border, no matter what their unicorn-based thinking says, then Irish reunification is inevitable

But it would be a long and bloody road to get there

It is one of the beauties of the current situation that the Tory PM has no room to manoeuvre on NI. Now he’s in, if he even hints at closer ties between the ROI and NI, the DUP will pull the plug and it will be election time.

You must realise the reason for conflict is that there are groups on both side of the the argument?

Yep. Just thinking of how it could be “spun” by a UK government.

Can’t say I’m a fan of super-majorities. I think there’s a lot of resentment when the winning side lose.

The border is something even the ERG is going to have to get its head around, eventually. It has to be sorted or the US Congress will not give the UK a trade deal. That’s something even they can’t blame on the EU or remainers.

OP… you have no clue.

Both Scotland and Ireland rely on referendums that are at the pleasure of the uk government. No getting around that..

Irish unification wouldn’t win just now anyhow, and Scottish independence is still a punt at best at the minute. If I was to put numbers on it, I’d say a UI is at least 30 years away, and an IS is 15 years away.

The backstop is just EU stirring up issues …

So, the UK leaves the EU, immediately throws away (say) EU food standards or safety standards or tariffs or import taxation or some such. The rest of the world can then ship inferior goods to NI (where there’s no longer restrictions), into ROI (because there’s no border checks) whereupon it can move anywhere else in the EU (cecause there’s still no border checks).

And you think this is perfectly fine and the EU27 is just being awkward?

I can’t fathom you out, chewkw. When you put your mind to it you can post some helpful and intelligent things, then you come out with utter idiocy like this. Either you need to do some reading or you’re just trolling.

OP… you have no clue.

I assume that’s why he posted. If you have no clue about something, is it not sensible to ask?

Cougar

I can’t fathom you out, chewkw.

I’m with this, really should cut out the trolling and just post actual opinions…Would be much more interesting.

throws away (say) EU food standards

Why would we do that? The UK standards are higher than the EU ones anyway.

Errmmm – no they are not and we have to do that to get the US trade deal Johnson is intent on getting