(If) war is declared on Russia what does this really mean ?

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  • (If) war is declared on Russia what does this really mean ?
  • transmute
    Member

    Why would Putin invade anywhere else at the moment? He’s got what he wanted, the Black Sea naval base.
    And he also no longer has to provide discounted gas for the whole of the Ukraine which was the deal for renting the base from the Ukrainians.
    Had the Ukrainians not grumbled about kicking the Russians out of the base every few years they’d probably still be owning the otherwise remarkably poor region.
    Putin’s not really done anything much about the rest of the ethnically Russian eastern part of the Ukraine, and why should he? It’s an incredibly poor area that offers little for him.
    The Russians always feared losing the Black Sea Base and it would’ve been much more likely if the whole of the Ukraine had gone under the economically supportive wing of the EU. He saw an opportunity in the unrest and took it.
    Germany can’t do without their gas since they shut down their nuclear plants so the EU can’t unite, the Yanks don’t care as they have fracked their way out of the fuel dependency that led them into the Gulf and importing from Russia.
    What would Putin get from invading the Baltic states? Nothing but a possible expensive escalation. No point there!
    It’s just old Generals wishing for the good old days of the Cold War when they could ask for and get all the toys they wanted without actually having to justify the expense. If you are in the military hardware business old Russia was the perfect enemy, it’s hard to sell an ICBM system when your enemy is a dude in a pickup with an RPG.
    Once nothing else happens for a bit then all the bluster will die down and the wealthy Russians money will be as welcome as ever to our debt ridden economies.

    shermer75
    Member

    Why would Putin invade anywhere else at the moment?

    1) He got away with it
    2) It’s made him very popular at home
    3) He wants an empire
    4) He’s a little bit mad

    Premier Icon epicyclo
    Subscriber

    transmute – Member
    Why would Putin invade anywhere else at the moment? He’s got what he wanted…

    Hold on, didn’t we say something like that about a chap in Germany about, oh, 75 years ago or so…

    project
    Member

    If we did declare war on russia, all we would need to do would be to send in the gay liberation armies from Brighton and Manchester and other big cities, and scare the pooh out of them rusians, they seem so scared of gay people.

    Premier Icon kimbers
    Subscriber

    I think transmute makes sense, it was all about the naval base

    in 2009 he shut of Ukraines gas, costing russia $1.5billion and severly damaging Russias reputation as an energy supplier. But in the end all he wanted was an extension to the lease on their base in Crimea

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Kharkiv_Pact

    when it looked like that deal was up in smoke he stepped in again

    Putin wouldnt risk further isolation, for now

    Nobody is going to do a bloody thing. Facts on the ground are all that matters. The City of London is awash with billions in bent Russian cash, being laundered.

    That NY Times article is (by a long chalk) the best thing I’ve found on STW for a long time. Compulsory reading even if you don’t 100% agree.

    shermer75
    Member

    Which NY Times article is that?

    Premier Icon BadlyWiredDog
    Subscriber

    The price of caviar would go through the roof I reckon. My cat would be furious. 😉

    El-bent
    Member

    It’s the only way of getting our expansionist EU leaders to wind their necks in.

    Its our way or Putins. Which do you prefer?

    Once again the businessman has sold us down the river by allowing us to become dependant on Russian money and oil etc, for our supposed economic well being, just like they did with China and its cheap labour. So now we can’t do jack sh*t, Putin knows this, and his land grab won’t stop.

    Hold on, didn’t we say something like that about a chap in Germany about, oh, 75 years ago or so…

    Bingo, Reduced tax bingo of course. 😉

    I see quite a few similarities with this situation and what Happened in the 1930’s in Germany. While in the 1930’s it was appeasement to try and keep the peace, today its economic appeasement that has left us weak in the presence of a one party state lead by an Ex-KGB officer. It won’t end well.

    We shouldn’t allow this to continue.

    Holyzeus
    Member

    I work onshore and last night did the paperwork on a Baltic ship, the Chief Officer was from Sevestapol(?).
    He was pretty much estatic, his family and himself consider themselves to be Russian, couldn’t wait to get home and change his driving licence and passport to Russian. As far as he was concerned Putin was righting a wrong as Crimea should never have been handed over.

    shermer75
    Member

    As far as he was concerned Putin was righting a wrong

    I think it’s more the methods used rather than results obtained that has concerned most people. If Putin had allowed Ukraine to get back on it’s feet before a Crimean referendum was held then no-one would be able to criticize him for acting outside of international law.

    richc
    Member

    Putin knows this, and his land grab won’t stop.

    Do you honestly believe this? Putin has played his hand perfectly and made pretty much all of the Western leaders look like idiots, why would would he suddenly switch from being a very astute politician to being as stupid and useless as ours? He’s got what he wants (the naval base) without any major loss of life, and the people in the country he has ‘liberated’ actually want him to be there, and the people who voted him in actually support him (72% approval rating, versus 35% for DC and 44% for Obama). Its a masterclass in how these things should be done, if they need to be.

    Western leaders would like him to act like a fool, as it would make them look less incompetent; however I doubt he’s going to do this just to make them feel better.

    Premier Icon ononeorange
    Subscriber

    I don’t think he’ll stop there – he’ll keep going as he thinks he can get away with it. I really don’t know how we got here, it’s embarrassing how we suddenly seem to be so impotent. I am surpised CMD hasn’t sent out an aircraft carrier with no planes to teach him.

    No idea why the Crimeans want to be part of Russia either.

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