I also put a bet on her getting it through, quite a while ago.

Just looking at the Brexit specials at the bookies now. Food rationing being introduced in the U.K. this year is 13/1

Double post thingy is back, I see

Did you ever thing you could get odds on food rationing in the uk

I wonder when they will try and stop us all leaving?

Did you ever thing you could get odds on food rationing in the uk

You can gets on far more preposterous things than that.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/newsbeat/article/36138413/10-things-bookies-thought-more-likely-than-leicester-winning-the-premier-league

She’ll lose it by 10 votes….Arlene will be most pleased

People thought that the Tories would lose the last election, Trump had no chance as did majority for Article 52 in the referendum.

Did everyone miss the first bit of this one? Absolutely no one thought the Tories would lose the last election!

I will go for a 95 point loss.

I think it’ll go ahead. She’ll loose and the whole Brexit thing grinds to a halt and doesn’t happen. It’ll be her opportunity to blame parliment and not the government for failing to deliver Brexit.

This. Several ive talked to believe this will happen ans we’ll stay in Europe with May blaming the opposition.

She loses by 100+.

No-one thought the Tories would lose the last election? Speak for yourself. I had twenty quid on a hung parliament at 5/1 😃

This. Several ive talked to believe this will happen ans we’ll stay in Europe with May blaming the opposition.

She loses by 100+.

I’d be happy with that, but despite all the lies and all the cheating from the Leave campaign, if, somehow we step back from Brexit – we (the UK) has to change its relationship with the EU. Not in terms of laws but how we communicate. The major parties can’t go back to ignoring the EU elections, they can’t go back to blaming the EU for every bit of unpleasant legislation they want to pass and as much it’s distastful we have to accept a lot of Britons, millions of them have an issue with immigration, migration and accepting refugees that have passed through a dozen safe first world countries to reach ours.

If we don’t leave, be it by a act of parliament or second referendum, we can’t just say “get over it, you lost” and go back to business as usual, it won’t work anymore than it worked during the last 3 years.

We could certainly look at not having MEPs like nigel farrage who turn up to do thier jobs twice a year if we are lucky, only to offend everyone whilst putting it all on expenses whilst telling the home crowd he’s ‘protecting our fishing rights’.

Has he got German citizenship yet? The duplicitous…

In a similar sentiment, Andrew Rawnsley was saying in Sunday’s Observer how this farce has shown the limits of our unwritten constitution, and whatever happens, our entire parliamentary system needs a full overhaul as it is no longer fit for purpose in the 21st century

Given the present total shambles, it’s difficult to argue against that

I get a horrible feeling that she’ll win the vote.

One thing’s for sure, if she loses the vote and Labour put forward the vote of no confidence, they’ll still never end up in power with Corbyn leading them.

Agreed, corbyn is useless. They need someone like starmer in charge, corbyn is a political barrier to any kind of progress in the Labour Party.

I unfasionably vote liberal democrat.

Well for so many MP’s this is the now or never moment.

For the hard **** em brexiters take May’s deal and you have sold out to a future of never really leaving. you might get another stab at it but the credibility will be gone once more reality bites.

For the Tory remainers, it’s a gamble to stop it and risk an election and take what you can.

For the Labour leavers and remainers this is the shot to get rid of the tories

For the lib dems and SNP it’s the one shot to stop Brexit

For May’s supporters, well she can choose how she votes.

None of them will get another chance at this. They should all know this.

Lose by 71. Somehow we’ll end up with another referendum. We’ll vote remain and the whole sorry episode will be dismissed in future years as a wild legend with as much truth as that bloke who chucked a ring into a volcano.

Betfair currently have 29/1 on the vote being passed.

This vote has the longest odds for a political event I have bet on… I am really hoping that I don’t win, but it will pay for some beer stockpiling if I do.

She will win with 55 votes, my random generated number has as much validity as any poll.

No-one thought the Tories would lose the last election? Speak for yourself.

As I recall, you were predicting Armageddon for Labour until quite late on.

I underestimated just how truly awful May was. Shoved the bet on about 2 weeks before the election, as the true scale of her hopelessness became apparent.

Corbyn could never win a general election, obviously, so a hung parliament seemed about right. I also had money on us booting out our sitting Tory MP at 3/1 so quite a lucrative night

93 vote loss

Lose by 23 votes. Hedging with a bet is a mice earner but we will all be poorer in the long run. In fact we already are!

Not enough for her to tender her resignation.

Didn’t realise they could abstain…..as said above they should have to vote one way or the other.
Think she’ll lose by 35.

Enough Labour MPs will abstain that she’ll scrape across the line by 5.

99 vote loss.

I’m assuming that all the talk in the media about losing by 200 is to make a two figure loss not look like resignation time… so they must be expecting high double figures.

scotroutes

Member

Enough Labour MPs will abstain that she’ll scrape across the line by 5.

Not likely… But if it happens, it should be resignation time, this isn’t something an MP can just step back from.

Time for this again.

I won £500 on the ref vote last time. Spent it on a holiday in France.

I predict another delay.

Anyone think there maybe a proper party split/breakaway coming out of this?

Lose by 130. Lots of Torys will wriggle and either abstain or flip. A few labour MP’s will do a Dianne Abbot and claim they had a dodgy pickled egg and be too “ill” to vote.

With my past record on these things-said the referendum would be remain etc- she’ll scrape it

She’s not going to win. Even the people who’ve said they will back her don’t believe she will win.

Defeated by 89

Loose by 45

Draw, settled by a fight to the death with Corbyn.

Abstaining on such an important vote is descusting.

Well I don’t know how much of an indicator the Lord’s result is (you know that one that appears no-where on the Beeb’s Brexit page) but if it’s similar she’s going to get a right mauling.

Speaking of the Lord’s, here’s Betty.

Abstaining on such an important vote is disgusting.

That it may be, but that has not stopped people in the past and will not stop them now.

Lose by 75

Abstaining on such an important vote is descusting.

Do you believe that regardless of which way they would vote if they had to? e.g. a labour MP who is not opposed to May’s deal, but who prefers to abstain to help his party potentially trigger a vote of no confidence; or a tory who really doesn’t like the deal but is terrified that the consequences of May losing are either Borris or Jezza as PM?

I don’t see the problem in principal with abstaining.

Same with spoilt ballot papers in an election.

The questions are very binary, should someone with only a slight leaning one way or the other have the same weight attached to their vote as someone who passionately believes either for or against?

With some questions it’s a very definite yes/no and the consensus is found by tabling amendments to adjust the motion until is passes. E.g. PM wants a full on war with Forexampleistan and loses, an amendment is tabled to send a smaller force of marines with air support to back up a local insurgency and that passes, or not and a further amendment is tabled which amounts to a strongly worded letter.

This one’s a bit different as there isn’t (on the table at least) any scope to amend it without going back to the EU. So having a 3rd way to vote is important for those who don’t like the deal strongly enough but don’t want to be counted as the opposition to it as that gives the wrong mandate e.g. the European Research Group must be troubled over effectively being counted as backing Corbyn and vice versa a lot of remainer MP’s don’t want to risk handing power to the ERG.

That’s exactly what happened in the referendum, the country was split near enough 1/2 and 1/2, which could be argued to show that the status quo is very near to being the consensus (48% of people like the EU and perhaps want closer ties, 52% want less to do with it). Which would mean a minor renegotiation might be in order to ballance it perfectly. Instead it’s taken as a mandate to try and get a deal that’s probably closer to what the 75th percentile would have wanted, so now 3/4 the country hates it.

I get a horrible feeling that she’ll win the vote.

Not a chance. But she will bring it back on a weekly basis, manoeuvring to prevent any discussion or voting on alternatives, until a minute to midnight before 29 March at which point the opponents will fold for fear of a no-deal, and pass it. And they call that “leadership”.

Not a chance. But she will bring it back on a weekly basis, manoeuvring to prevent any discussion or voting on alternatives, until a minute to midnight before 29 March at which point the opponents will fold for fear of a no-deal, and pass it. And they call that “leadership”.

Na, the EU has previous in getting countries to re-run referendums if it wants a different result. I reckon they would just make no-deal politically untenable by offering to extend the deadline at the last minute which would leave may with two options, keep voting on her deal or amendments to it, or give up, and I suspect the political entropy tends towards a second referendum (keeping with the thermodynamic metaphor, her deal is merely a local minimum, an equilibrium state with such low activation energy to revert back that’s it’s fundamentally unstable, and no deal is a final state with such a high activation energy that’s it’s impossible without a catalyst).