If they were this would have last a couple of days……

I am frankly stunned that it’s taken the rebels six months to reach Tripoli. They had at their disposal the combined air forces and navies of the the most powerful military alliance in the world, along with the most advanced aircraft and missiles available. In contrast, the Libyan government had no effective air force.

I fully expected Gaddafi to fall within 48 hours or so of the first NATO strikes, if what we were told concerning the complete lack of support he has from the Libyan people was true.

Indeed less than four weeks ago it was reported in the Guardian and the Independent that Gaddafi forces were actually controlling “around 20% more territory than it did in the immediate aftermath of the uprising on 17 February”.

Gaddafi is stronger than ever in Libya

The situation certainly now appears to have changed. But what has happened in the last 4 weeks which hadn’t happened in the previous 5 months ? Well there’s no evidence of a sudden change of allegiance in government held areas and popular uprisings in places such as Tripoli. There is however plenty of evidence to show an intensification of NATO bombing.

Had NATO simply enforced an actual “no-fly zone” over Libya instead of carrying out tactical bombing raids, then I fail to see why the rebels could not have easily disposed of Gaddafi. The evidence suggests huge opposition to the rebels.

As far as how long the fighting will continue, it’s got to be anyone’s guess. But I suspect that despite the fact they are referred to as “Gaddifi Loyalists”, many who are staunchly fighting the rebels are not so much motivated by great love for their Brother Leader, but more motivated by deep hostility towards the Transitional National Council.

The reaction of residents in areas taken by the rebels, and the fact that have often been repeatedly driven out, is very telling. Human rights organisations have witnessed human rights violations in rebel controlled areas, and a couple of days ago the BBC reporter in Tripoli reported that a resident had told him of looting of people’s houses by rebel forces. The rebels are not universally loved.

Furthermore even if the rebels managed to totally defeat pro-Gaddafi forces, an unlikely scenario unless NATO is contemplating carrying on bombing Libya indefinitely, there is no doubt that they will fight amongst themselves – they are already doing so. Last month the leader of the rebel military was assassinated by elements within the rebel movement, leading to a dangerous stand-off, and resulting in the entire rebel cabinet being sacked.

And the rebels in Libya’s third largest city, Misrata, announced a few weeks back that they would no longer take orders from Benghazi and would operate independently – which they have been doing.

Add to this the fact that Al-Qaeda, who have long targeted Gaddafi’s Libya, are very active in the rebel movement, as are secular pro-westerners, non-jihadist islamists, former government loyalists, conflicting tribes, and an assortment of looters/criminals, and you have a very dangerous mix. Whatever the final outcome “peace” is the least likely. Sadly.

Of all the articles I’ve seen recently in the British media which has slavishly towed the pro-western line on the situation in Libya, by far the best I’ve seen was in, of all places, the Daily Mail. Well worth a read :

Why this is the moment Libya’s Islamic extremists have prayed for

Which all begs the question why ? ………why are western governments doing this ? And why single out Libya but not other countries in the region ? Well it is about oil, but it is also about a lot more. Including gold, the Dollar, saving the Italian banking system from collapse (Italy was initially the most ardent supporter of military action against Libya), and therefore also saving the Euro. And of course the Euro Zone is the UK’s largest trading partner. But all that is another story.

i think youre wrong ernie, libya was being very cautious initially with liby, burlscronie was reluctant to commit to any attack on libya, and his buddy gaddafi, with whom i believe he had ‘traded’ ladies in the past, not to mention the oil and invetsments in the country
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d24c9938-674d-11e0-9bb8-00144feab49a.html#axzz1Vy3Z7uiC

now that gadaffis gone italy is desperate to get back into that pot

million pound bounty on Gaddafi now, dead or alive…..

Despite Berlusconi being “cautious” about action against Libya kimbers, and for obvious reasons, he was nevertheless in the early stages, the most vocal supporter of taking action against Gaddafi.

Berlusconi Hedges Bets on Libya War Outcome by Pushing for NATO Takeover

Quote : “Italy is in a tight spot; it has the most to lose”

He did express concern about the scale and targets of NATO bombing after things kicked off, and thereafter took a back seat. But he did get the result that he wanted when Libyan assets were frozen.

Libya Revolt Helped Stop Italy Bank Collapse

Quote : “Trade in shares of Italy’s largest bank has been suspended – as it emerges that events in Libya have helped prevent a collapse of the Italian banking system.”

This war and the West’s involvement in it has nothing to to do with saving civilian lives (did anyone think it did?) and much more to do with saving bankers, Libyan gold reserves, the Dollar being retained as the global oil currency, etc.

Not seen for a few months, only heard, seen that just growing a beard as a disguise wont work (Saddam) He’s been getting a new face and letting it heal up.

he lives in LA and changed his name to lionel richie

Hello….. is it me you’re looking for?

I wouldn’t like to be in his shoes now. Any dealings with these chaps don’t usually end well;
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/libya/8721291/Libya-SAS-leads-hunt-for-Gaddafi.html

Any dealings with these chaps don’t usually end well…

…for the SAS, so far in Libya.

http://www.thefirstpost.co.uk/76066,news-comment,news-politics,benghazi-cock-up-fourth-time-unlucky-for-the-sas-in-libya
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-03-07/british-bungle-libyan-sas-mission/1968942

It cant be easy being on the left right now. First they have to scramble to rewright history, that the rioters were the real victims of us nasty middle class families. Now a properly nasty gangster who has terrorised his own people and the rest of us for 40years is only days away from his cummupance they have to find a way to blame the West, tag him somehow as Our Guy or the rebels as the Bad Guys.

Libya isnt going to be stable for a long time but lets wish them well and provide what help we can, short of having the worlds finest infantry dig in in yet another Muslim country.

this will be a country in perpetual civil war from now on unless its partitioned

Jeremy, even for you, that is truly pitiful.

Not that badly;

In July 1942 they destroyed 86 enemy aircraft and 45 motorised vehicles.

It cant be easy being on the left right now. First they have to scramble to rewright history, that the rioters were the real victims of us nasty middle class families. Now a properly nasty gangster who has terrorised his own people and the rest of us for 40years is only days away from his cummupance they have to find a way to blame the West, tag him somehow as Our Guy or the rebels as the Bad Guys.

Its quite easy being on the left, its just about looking past the headlines to the reality behind and accepting that we all have had a part in creating the problems and need to accept our part in solving them.
But I guess its even easier to blame everything on everyone else, especially to blame the victims.

It cant be easy being on the left right now. First they have to scramble to rewright history, that the rioters were the real victims of us nasty middle class families. Now a properly nasty gangster who has terrorised his own people and the rest of us for 40years is only days away from his cummupance they have to find a way to blame the West, tag him somehow as Our Guy or the rebels as the Bad Guys.

Wow. I’m just amazed that after the Iraq war and all that has come out about it since anyone genuinely believes this one is a humanitarian-led war (and that Libya just happens to have lots of oil too). Carry on believing what the (right-wing) mainstream media tells you, it’s all true, honest.

McBoo that is my opinion.
What will happen now is nato will install the most pliable person from the “transitional council” as president. He will invite in teh nato ground forces as training and security, a large part of the country and population will not go along with this. Civil war will ensue with the so called “transitional council” holding parts of the country under nato support and the rest in open revolt. Much like Iraq and Afghanistan

Unsurprisingly the new Prime Minister was educated in the US, and favours economic liberalisation and privatisation of Libya’s state industries. I wonder if US, UK and French companies will be involved in the new contracts?

Oh and it seems some of the claims made about human rights abuses used to justify the war were probably made up or massively exaggerated.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/amnesty-questions-claim-that-gaddafi-ordered-rape-as-weapon-of-war-2302037.html

Thats all entirely possible, but isnt that only one scenario?

“This will happen….that will happen……”

How about instead of like you willing the worst we hope for the best, maybe lend a hand if asked? That so bad?

I’m not that optimistic about any of these godforsaken countries, if there were going to be more than a couple of democtratic Muslim countries on the planet they’d have figured it out for themselves by now.

Oh and the reason we had all those soldiers in Libya once-upon-a-time was a little thing called the Defeat of Nazi Germany, my Great Uncle Sandy had the wounds and the malaria to prove his presence at Tobruk.

http://francescadarimini.files.wordpress.com/2011/08/wheresgaddafithumb.jpg

Click for biggerer.
Edit: was meant to be a thumbnail to click to link, but i’ve clearly forgotten how to do that.

“This will happen….that will happen……”

Well OK ….. forget about that if you want, and look at what has, and hasn’t, happened.

First of all we were told that Gaddafi had no support at all amongst the Libyan people, and in fact only foreign mercenaries were willing to fight for him. False.

Then in February our Foreign Secretary William Haig, informed the world that Gaddafi had fled to Venezuela. False.

Then we were told that Gaddafi forces had committed all manner of atrocities but by June, after exhaustive investigations, human rights organisations announced that they had found no evidence of mass graves or mass rape or other abuses :

Amnesty questions claim that Gaddafi ordered rape as weapon of war

Quote :

“An investigation by Amnesty International has failed to find evidence for these human rights violations and in many cases has discredited or cast doubt on them. It also found indications that on several occasions the rebels in Benghazi appeared to have knowingly made false claims or manufactured evidence.”

“Rebels have repeatedly charged that mercenary troops from Central and West Africa have been used against them. The Amnesty investigation found there was no evidence for this. “Those shown to journalists as foreign mercenaries were later quietly released,” says Ms Rovera. “Most were sub-Saharan migrants working in Libya without documents.”

Others were not so lucky and were lynched or executed. Ms Rovera found two bodies of migrants in the Benghazi morgue and others were dumped on the outskirts of the city. She says: “The politicians kept talking about mercenaries, which inflamed public opinion and the myth has continued because they were released without publicity.”

Then we were told that NATO would only take action to protect civilians and would not involve itself in the fighting, plus it would abide by UN Resolution 1973 which prohibits the arming of any side. All false.

And so the lies have continued unabated …. only a few days ago we told that rebels entering Tripoli weren’t encountering any opposition, just cheering crowds, and that Gaddafi’s sons had been captured. False.

Next we can look at things which have happened. The military leader of the rebels, General Younes, has been assassinated by other rebels, despite the National Transitional Council initially lying and claiming that pro-Gaddafi forces were responsible. And General Younes had been arrested under the orders of NTC. The rebel leader Abdul Jalil did sack the entire National Transitional Council. Rebels in Libya’s third largest city Misrata are refusing to take orders from Benghazi. There is huge tribal tension within the rebels, as well as huge political tensions, such as former Gaddafi officials v Al Qaeda.

So there you have it, just going by what has happened, never mind what will happen, we can say with complete certainty that the rebels are very prone to lying, and are already fighting amongst themselves.

I am no great fan of Gaddafi, he’s clearly mad as a hatter, and ruthless with it – the muppet clearly needs to go. But I don’t trust Cameron/Clegg, Sarkozy, and Berlusconi, nor the NTC, all of whom have proved to be liars. And I certainly won’t support an Al Qaeda involved insurgency. A dictator would have to be very very bad indeed for me to back Al Qaeda’s attempts to overthrow him. Gaddafi doesn’t quite make the grade for me.

Of course my pessimism might well be misplaced, let’s hope that it is, and that after recent events Libya turns out to be a model country in which all its peoples, and many tribes, live together in loving harmony, and Al Qaeda simply vanishes away. And just for bonus points, they willingly give us all their oil. Now that crystal ball gazing sounds a whole lot nicer.

.

It cant be easy being on the left right now.

Because of course the neo-conservatives have done such an excellent job in recent years in terms of the global economy and international relations ?

It seems to me that a few Daily Mail readers might feel a tad uneasy after reading this in their newspaper :

Why this is the moment Libya’s Islamic extremists have prayed for

The concluding sentence : “Indeed, it is more likely to turn into the West’s worst nightmare.”

Sometimes it can’t be easy being a Daily Mail reader.

Someone summarise that for me. I really cant be arsed.

But Ernie wasted took so much time to write it all…..

Someone summarise that for me. I really cant be arsed.

Basically I was agreeing with everything you were saying.

I bet that’s come as a surprise to you.

Surely Gadaffi is in Syria- most of the statements from him have come form Syrian TV or radio.
And it would be about right, Syria is also trying to kill everyone who says a bad word about them. Maybe Gadaffi and the Syrians are forming an allegiance and could bring in other middle eastern nutters who are homeless due to the Arab spring.