Following on from Molgrips bargain street, what do the STW collective think will happen to house prices over the next few years?

Personally I reckon another 15% to come off, then a couple of years of stagnation, possibly rising again in 2013.

That’s probably about right I reckon. Even though the demand is there the money isn’t and I doubt it will be for another couple of years yet

sounds aboot right to me

we don’t need anymore threads like this please, i’m trying to seel mine and have been now for over a year. simply noe need for them on here, i come here for relaxation!

i come here for relaxation!

😯

house prices around by me in Bristol are still higher than they were 2 years ago.

Depends where you are – not much evidence of any fall around my area – but then no rise over the last year or two either. Sales volumes are certainly down around here but what is selling is selling pretty much for the same prices as the last couple of years.

All you folk predicting house prices.

Any chance you could tell us the lottery numbers for this Saturday?

4 17 66 3 18 2 and the bonus ball 7

Stayed fairly steady around here too they’ve dropped but not by much.

I know repossessions are going up which is keeping me really busy, so that should tell you something.

Houses prices will go up, in about 4/5 years. We will never see the growth of the market like we have in the last ten years, and housing as a commodity is bust.
Better off with pork bellies winthorpe 😛

Prices round Hertfordshire seem only about 3% down on peak.
Mind you there’s precious few buyers or sellers.

BoardinBob – Member
All you folk predicting house prices.

Any chance you could tell us the lottery numbers for this Saturday?

Nobody knows.

Could be up or down-depends whether I’m a selling or buying troll. 😈

Quite a lot of places seem to be staying stagnant on prices, but when you find out what they have sold for it is a long way below asking.

Sold mine in December (took a fairly sizeable hit on that) and am sitting out for a bit renting. I suspect we are going to see another 15% off this year, and possibly another 5 – 10% in 2010… this year is shaping up to be broadly similar to (or possibly worse) than last. Really all depends what happens in the wider economy as well as with lending. If we dive into a long deep recession then I think we are going to see a considerable fall in prices to come. For a lot of people the recession hasn’t actually started to bite yet. As we see more repossessions that is also going to drive down the market as why pay over the odds for a house when the one next door can be had at auction for 30% less???

Put it this way – I am planning on putting very, very low offers in on houses in the next couple of months, and if folk don’t bite I will sit back and wait to see what happens! Nothing much is selling afterall.

Steve-Austin – Member
We will never see the growth of the market like we have in the last ten years, and housing as a commodity is bust.

didnt ‘they’ say the last time.

and the time before that

and the…

I’m with RobS. The fall has been in selling price, rather than asking price.

Plenty of people hereabouts still have their houses for sale at the same price as 12 months ago. But none of them are selling, so their asking prices are somewhat irrelevant 😉

Selling prices are static around here – many houses gone to fixed price rather than offers over tho. Deffo no real signs of falls. Thats in Leith which might well be peculiar. Many many thousands of new houses and flats built over the last few years has kept previous rises down so the market never overheated here perhaps

Interestingly 3 recent reports into house prices in Scotland give the three different possible answers. Static, falling and still rising. Its all about where you are and what happened in that area over the last few years. Rentals in Edinburgh / Leith are rising and rising fast which must push some buyers back into the market.

Repos are just filtering through to the auctions this month onwards, based on the summer and autumn crunch of people who had remortgaged up to full value of a house, then been unable to cope when the fix/discount period ended. There are a lot more of these to come over the next six months or so, and little evidence of government bail-outs helping them directly, so they are likely to continue unless govt does something drastic quick, but all the evidence is they want to protect the lender rather than the occupier so draw your own conclusion. I’d say no sign of a rise in selling prices, and probably another 20% to come off the mid-range round here. I’m looking to buy repos/ fire sale three bed semi at about £60k to rent out.

Most properties round here have giving up trying to sell and have signs – To Let instead.

Sorry no idea when things will bottom out.

to much fanfare prices dropped, only those who have to sell have done so the rest waiting to see if they can weather the storm hence quite limited supply at present (in many areas). pretty soon many of these will start having to think about cutting their losses and sell after all. there will be better bargains yet and cash will be king.

I’m renting mine to students if I can’t sell.

But I’m happy to stay In Bristol for a few yrs.

If I sell cheap then I’ll buy cheap.

I was told last weekend by a seller that they’ll be recovering in the next 6 to 12 months.

I think they have another 12 months to fall as we’ve only just started with the recession, previous drops were a result of lack of credit.

They won’t rise in the same way they dropped, it’ll be much more gradual.

Of course this all depends on exact area and type of house.

50-70% falls from peak prices in 2008

Advertised prices are way higher than actual selling prices, its hard to guage without seeing sales registers.

midlifecrashes -I’m looking to buy repos/ fire sale three bed semi at about £60k to rent out.

FFS where are you? The cheapest 1 bed flat on a crummy street in a crummy are round here is more than that – 3 bed seni ( rare in the ‘burgh) would be 200 000 upwards. 2 bed flats near me are 160 000-250 000

as i see it the banks aren’t being generous with money at the moment, until the banks start being more generous prices won’t rise. How many people buy houses with Cash? very few, almost everyone needs a mortgage.

If our glorious leader is serious about demanding deposits then i can’t see the situation improving, How long would it take some one on average income save up the deposit needed for the average house in the South East?

Mind you, if i relocate rather than take redundancy i have seen 2 bed houses near the new job for less than £50k, the relocation package would cover the deposit on that… I did see some in Liverpool, which would be perfectly commutable, in the mid £20k’s but you have to wonder when things are cheap and when things are worth avoiding!!!!!

The real bloodbath is yet to come.

Jobs are disappearing, the world economy is a basket case. Loads of companies are consuming their reserves, and when they hit the wall, watch out!

That said it is a time of opportunity – the big will become small, the small will become big, and even with 25% unemployment it means that 75% have jobs.

Doncaster house prices

With advertised prices anywhere under £80k and if they’re really looking to sell, £60k is reasonable, plus if you go into the agents and ask about repos they are there, but not on the property search websites. Round here you can rent a nice 4 bed semi in a decent area for £650 pcm, which you would have trouble financing since it’ll cost £140k+ to buy, whereas a terrace or ex council/coal board place for £60k can fetch £425-475 a month. Trick is to find a cosmetically bad one in a decent street, £6k to re kitchen, bathroom, fences, any windows and a lick of paint and get it rented.

as i see it the banks aren’t being generous with money at the moment, until the banks start being more generous prices won’t rise. How many people buy houses with Cash? very few, almost everyone needs a mortgage.

If our glorious leader is serious about demanding deposits then i can’t see the situation improving, How long would it take some one on average income save up the deposit needed for the average house in the South East?

Ding!

Just read something in a magazine from 2 years ago.

Average house price in London was £350,000

So assuming that drops by 20% you’re looking at a price of £280,000

So you’ll be needing a £70,000 deposit for that in the future if the doom mongers are correct.

Aye right you are.

Hefty lol.

So if I sell my 2 bed flat in leith I could swap it for half a street in Doncaster?

Its mad

You been to Doncaster?

ours was at 140 12 months ago,ended up at 115,I just accepted 106,would have just kept it but with us emigrating I didn’t want the hassle,like you say what they actually sell for is a lot different than you see in the local paper

And I can sell my 7 bed Victorian villa overlooking a 90 acre park and still be short of a quarter of a million to set myself up in the New Town. It’s grim up north.

CHB – My missus is from doncaster – she says she is not going back!

must fall a lot further yet.

Compared to wage inflation, house prices are still way too high.

My house cost 3.5x my salary in 1998 when I bought it, but has risen 3x in value (even after recent adjustments, was nearly 4x last year) – wages haven’t risen anything like that much in the last 10 years.

That’s my guess as to where we’ll fall back to generally. 3x main earners salary. None of this 5+ times combined stuff.

The reason the banks stopped lending is because they realised houses were over valued so the loan would not be secure in the event of defaults.

well in chiswick …
most of the flats that we were keeping an eye on last summer were about 300-350
now they are on the market for about 250
glad we didnt buy in the summer!
and just gonna hang on and see them keep dropping and as more redundancies seem to be announced every week i cant see prices doing anything but fall for the next year or so
even if the banks are sorted out
tho who wants them to rise??
wouldnt it be great if a house cost no more than 20k that way everyone could afford one

polly says

There’s the upside of property values falling;

1) Cheaper to move up the ladder.
2) Smaller mortgages mean less of a financial impact on living standards and a more manageable debt.
3) Auctions have some great bargains with less competition until the market turns.
4) You’ll pay less stamp duty
5) People who had no chance of buying will find they suddenly have the opportunity.
6) If maximum LTV’s are reduced and lending is prudent, price inflation won’t run out of control.

The market has been overcooking for way too long and this readjustment will bring prices back inline with the natural equilibrium the market would have found if there hadn’t been this irresponsible phase of lending way too much to people – many of which who were not really credit worthy.

It’s tough on those who bought at the top of the market, especially those who are first time buyers with little equity.

There will eventually be a recovery, probably nothing like the last decade, but i reckon more like a steady consolidation. The greedy developers, lenders and estate agents won’t be able to pump the prices up so easily next time.

I wish everybody the best of luck until we come out of this mess.

A bit optimistic for the house price to recover in 4 years IMO.

5 years to stable then perhaps a slight slow improvement from the 6 year onwards.

If you want to know then look at those big American banks. If they are still there then is hope for 4-5 years recovery otherwise count UK VERY lucky if there is a recovery in 4 years.

😥

I wouldn’t compare us with the Americans! We love to buy property more than anyone else in the world. Plus we haven’t got enough homes on this overcrowded little island. My bet is the UK will recover before the US.