• This topic has 11 replies, 10 voices, and was last updated 1 year ago by alexxx.
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  • GBP – EUR – Exchange Rate Predictions?
  • Premier Icon alexxx
    Free Member

    With Brexit looming the xrate has been pretty pap and looks like it wont be going near 1.2 anytime soon..

    Do anyone follow xrates properly and have any knowledge on if the consensus is that it’s likely to tank after Brexit or maintain about the same for the foreseeable… or settle back nearer 1.2 up because it’s not all as bad as it is expected?

    I know this is all speculation.. just curious if anyone has any educated guesses.. as I’m about to buy an Apartment in Euros in the next 2 months and don’t know if I should pop my cash into my EUR bank account now.. or wait.

    Payment will be due very close to “B day”

    Premier Icon robertpb
    Free Member

    B day passed on the 31st January 2020. The forecasts I have read see the £ rising past 1.20 by the end of 2021, one I read said past 1.3 as for 31st December 2020 pick a number any number.

    Premier Icon nickjb
    Free Member

    What’s the worst that can happen? I think that is Boris’s plan.

    Premier Icon RichPenny
    Free Member

    Maybe just hedge, do half now and half as late as you can? From a pretty uninformed perspective, the state of the free trade deal and the relative success of Covid policy seem to be the most significant drivers. You’d have to bet on the EU for the second. Anything could happen on the first.

    Premier Icon thekingisdead
    Free Member

    It’s not the 1st of Jan 2021 that matters – things will be decided by then.
    I expect we will know the fate in the next 6wks or so. A hard brexit is already decided, it’s a matter of how hard (no deal) or a deal (which will still increase Friction for trade and weaken the U.K. economically over the long term.
    I think a “deal“ is reckoned to be 60/70% in favour of happening from what I’ve read.

    I think the sensible thing to do is acknowledge we don’t know squat in the grand scheme of things with regards what FX will do and start hedging =
    A series of transactions leading up to your purchase date.

    IANACT

    Premier Icon frankconway
    Full Member

    I think we’ll see £ weakening.

    Premier Icon tjagain
    Full Member

    There is not going to be a deal. Johnsons cabal have no intention of making one.

    As a result the pound will fall and keep on falling because we will lose the financial services that support the economy

    My bet is the pound will be worth less than a euro in a year

    Premier Icon tjagain
    Full Member

    Short term I would do half now and then watch rates

    Premier Icon dovebiker
    Free Member

    Those FX outcomes will be already be priced in, Where it might change if anything should change, such as a recession dragging longer on the UK economy as well as higher unemployment. Harder to see an upside where the rate would move the other way

    Premier Icon Harry_the_Spider
    Full Member

    I monitor it daily as part of my job. Not seen 1.2 for a while now. It tends to tank and level every time we do something stupid.

    I see it dropping to parity or below come new year and staying there for the foreseeable.

    Premier Icon cromolyolly
    Free Member

    At the moment covid seems to be the bigger influence than you know what. Markets like certainty. The uncertainty of covid will weigh more heavily than brexit in the near term. You will probably see a dropping pound until the deal/no deal is settled. When it is, it would not surprise me at all if we see a bump. Small if no deal, bigger if deal.
    Believable data related to covid recovery, economic and otherwise, will be the main thing in getting a stable and realistic exchange rate.

    Premier Icon alexxx
    Free Member

    Thanks all – I’ll split the risk!

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