I think he’s pretty close to Hamilton in terms of ability. That’s where the tension is coming from.

Hamilton is 3rd in the Championship in perhaps the 4th fastest car on the grid with 190 points, Russel is 8th and 75 points behind*. I think the tension is maybe that Russell sees his championship season slipping away from him, and he’s becoming a bit desperate to get some points. I think Hamilton’s putting the pressure on a bit; last week’s radio messages asking him to get a move on just before Russell crashed, and the re-overtake and place swap today (after which Hamilton pranced off into the distance within 1/2 a lap) probs aren’t helping either. Russell, for all his talent, is still clearly number two in that team, in a way that isn’t clear for both MacLaren or Ferrari at the minute.

* which is probably a more accurate reflection of where this year’s Mercedes deserves to be.

Hamilton took 5 seconds out of Russell after their pitstops before they caught Norris in Singapore. He’d have seen that and he’s probably a bit worried.

Sorry wrong channel :D!

I really want red bull to sack Perez and stick lawson in his seat.

My guess is that Red Bull will put Ricciardo in Perez’s seat next year if they championship is close and Perez doesn’t lift his game. It doesn’t matter this year because they are so dominant, but if things were close, they’d need a more consistent driver in the second car. Perez has a contract for next year so I don’t think they’d drop him completely, just put him in the AT to benchmark Tsunoda.

They will have told Lawson that he has a solid future if he just holds on for another year. He’ll be their official backup driver next year and definitely get a race seat in 25. Tsunoda is there because Honda are backing him, but he’ll probably go to Aston Martin in 26. Lawson just needs to spend a few years getting experience like Russell did and he’ll get promoted to the main team to take over after Verstappen leaves.

nickc
Russell, for all his talent, is still clearly number two in that team, in a way that isn’t clear for both MacLaren or Ferrari at the minute.

I don’t think so, a clear number 2 driver would have been made to move over straight away on Sunday. It was obvious his tyres were done at that point yet they let him stay ahead for quite a while.

If you review the season, you will see their performance has been way closer than the points tally looks. They are 8 – 8 in qualifying! and if you look at the races, for example : GR got screwed by the red flag timing then PU failure in Oz, GR qualified 10 places ahead of LH in Netherlands but ended up at the back due to bad strat call in the rain, was ahead in Singapore then lost out due to a small error, had to retire from Canada due to brake failure.

My guess is that Red Bull will put Ricciardo in Perez’s seat next year if they championship is close and Perez doesn’t lift his game

I’d be putting in Lawson ahead of Ricciardo. Lawson has hit the ground running and had 4 solid races with little experience. Hes basically matched Ricciardos performance vs Tsunoda

Lando destroyed Ricciardo at McLaren, so i’m not expecting a different result if you placed Ricciardo into the Red Bull.

yet they let him stay ahead for quite a while.

Only while they worked out if he could go fast enough to drag Hamilton along with DRS, once they realised that was a no-go, Wolf made the call to get Russell out of the way. I get what you mean about Russell’s qualifying, he’s much been much better in the second half of the seasons vs Hamilton, but the it’s Hamilton who converts quali into podiums and points, and that’s what matters at the end of the day, and the more Hamilton does that, the more the team will give him what he wants I reckon.

That was a shocking performance from Perez yesterday, his move on Magnussen at the hairpin was straight out of the Office Karting Night.

I still think he is probably safe for next season, He has a contract until the end of 2024, sure Red Bull could just buy him out, but that’s only really an option if there are better drivers available.

The only free agents on the grid are Sargeant and Lawson, everyone else is under contract until at least the end of 2024.

A swap between Perez and Ricciardo might be on the cards but has Danny Ric really done enough in the Alpha Tauri to warrant promotion to Red Bull?

I think Perez will have at least the start of next season to prove he isn’t washed before Red Bull think about changing drivers.

I’d say the pressure for the Mercedes duo runs both ways.  Hamilton has historically been seen a a strong qualifier, but Russel has soundly beaten him across two seasons – that’s got to get to him.  Similarly, Russel has often made more progress in races where his more aggressive style has led to overtakes that Hamilton is not willing or able to execute.  Yes, the points are in Hamilton’s favour this year, but as said above, it’s actually a lot closer once mitigating factors are taken into account.  For Russel, it’s got to be a concern just how much faster than him Hamilton is when in open air in race trim.  Hamilton ALWAYS seems to come back at him, no matter the difference in qualifying position.

Mind you, Russell has got the only Mercedes win in the last couple of seasons, and I can’t see another one coming this year.

The thing I don’t understand about Perez is his thinking. The car is so fast he doesn’t need to divebomb like he has been. Just wait until the straight and drs past anything at will. He’d be getting solid points and no one would question his position with people accepting him as a number 2.

I’d be putting in Lawson ahead of Ricciardo.

Lawson is clearly their long-term prospect, but he’s lacking experience. If you put him into the big team now, he might end up like Albon, Gasly, etc. Red Bull have seen how good Ricciardo can be when the car is to his liking and they have seen his simulator work since he rejoined them. They don’t need him to be at the level of Verstappen, they just need someone who can qualify more consistently than Perez and bring home solid points for the manufacturer’s championship. Hamilton has scored more points that Perez since Monaco, but Verstappen has won 10 of those 11 races. It’s quite likely that the championship will be much closer next year and 2025 so Red Bull really need an experienced driver to score consistent podiums for the manufacturer’s title.

Hamilton has scored more points that Perez since Monaco, but Verstappen has won 10 of those 11 races

Ouch, that is a damning statistic

The one safe bet after this weekend is that Sargeant’s seat must be up for grabs. After clearly stating that the team want him to cut out the errors, trashing the car in Q1 and then facepalming into the side of Bottas is hardly making a good pitch.

Red Bull have some interesting decisions to make. I’d be a little surprised if Perez is still in the fast car next year.

I think if I was running Red Bull I’d be trying to stick Ricciardo in Perez’s seat for one year only, Lawson in the second AT with a prospect of promotion in 2026, and figuring out how to offload Checo to Williams 🙂

My pretty boring prediction is:

Lawson to Williams, to replace a really poor Sargeant.

Yuki and Dani R at AT
No change at RB

I honestly have no idea what they’ll do with Ricciardo – if he’s good enough he should be put alongside Max. He can’t do worse than Perez.

But Max (still really a rookie) steamrollered him in 2018 so he left with his tail between his legs.

Apart from a decent paycheque I can’t see what Ricciardo gains from trundling around in the mid-field either.

Drugovich is talked about more and more for Williams.

I think if I was running Red Bull I’d be trying to stick Ricciardo in Perez’s seat for one year only, Lawson in the second AT with a prospect of promotion in 2026, and figuring out how to offload Checo to Williams

AFAIK, as long as Perez gets paid, Red Bull can tell him to sit on the sidelines. He will be making a decent salary, but that’s sandwich money for Red Bull and there must be a performance clause in his contract. He seems like a likeable guy, but he really has blown his big chance at a title shot this year. I suspect that Red Bull will actually just use the rest of this year to see if he pulls out of his slump and replace him with DR next year.

Apparently, Red Bull want AT to improve its performance so they need two decent drivers in there rather than just using it to evaluate rookies. Putting Perez in alongside Tsunoda for a year would make sense to try to develop the car, then move Lawson back after a year at Williams.

It’s hard to see how Sargeant can still be on the grid next year. Has he actually had any single good weekend where he showed that he belongs there?

Apparently, Red Bull want AT to improve its performance so they need two decent drivers in there rather than just using it to evaluate rookies.

The current situation with AT is another can of worms. Before the budget cap it was very much a feeder team. The main team could chuck unlimited resources at their car and let AT drag behind and do what they were set up to do.

Now it’s being aligned along the same car concept as the main team, suddenly experience is needed and it’s not a big stretch to see that budget spend in AT could benefit the main team.

IMO they should be forced to sell AT and ‘B’ teams should be banned under the budget cap regs.

I’m not convinced Perez would make it thru the season if Riciardo hadn’t broken his hand. His desperation to prove himself has turned him into a dirty driver (whether by incompetence or deliberately)

Perez has had a shocking few races, the last two have been marred by uncharacteristically desperate lunges to try to overtake much slower cars.  He’s clearly under pressure and it’s obvious that Verstappen’s baked in car preferences don’t translate well to team mates’ setup choices.

I reckon Stroll out and a rookie back in else what about Vettel. Sargent out and Drugovich in. Perez will carry on as normal. If the car concept isnt like an RB then Lewis to leave at the end of the season

Verstappen’s baked in car preferences don’t translate well to team mates’ setup choices

Red Bull haven’t built a car to suit Verstappen. They have just built the fastest car.

Its just a case that a fast car is an unstable one, which Max is able to drive it to its limits.

Checco is a good driver, but hes up against one of the all time greats in the same car, which never ends well. He just needs to do an Irvine, accept that and start to bring in some decent results.

IMO they should be forced to sell AT and ‘B’ teams should be banned under the budget cap regs.

This is a good point

The thing I don’t understand about Perez is his thinking. The car is so fast he doesn’t need to divebomb like he has been

He’s lost his confidence, and Red Bull isn’t the kind of team that is going to help with that

It’s surprising to see Norris above Russell in the standings. Also impressive to see Lawson ahead of De Vries and only one behind Tsunoda!

WEC shaping up to be pretty epic next season!… 🙂

https://www.the-race.com/wec-le-mans/vettel-considering-full-time-racing-return-in-2024/

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/66921772
Good to see Jessica getting a test in the Aston.

It’s not surprising about Norris.  The new updates in June/July made for a Mclaren which was great at high speed, but was really draggy – the new updates from September seem to have rectified some/most of that and the Mclaren seems to now be pretty good everywhere, but is still carrying a drag penalty to RB.  So they have to either run more wing and be less fast or have less wing and work the tyres more, but this seems to be true of most of the teams.

This is impressive for Norris. Not impressive for Perez.

Norris: 🇬🇧🇭🇺🇸🇬🇯🇵
Perez: 🇧🇭🇺🇸🇧🇪🇮🇹

Lando Norris and Sergio Perez both have FOUR second place finishes in grands prix this year – the joint MOST of any driver.

Sprint races? They tip the balance into Perez's favour. pic.twitter.com/wvLbTt7dgP

— The Race (@wearetherace) September 28, 2023

McLaren have been monstrous in this half of the season. Norris’ points haul has been as amazing as Perez’ lack thereof.

Be interesting to see how Haas do when they turn up with their Red Bull copy in Austin. If they suddenly jump into the points it surely consigns other concepts to the bin.

I think everybody has tacitly already accepted that haven’t they?

Not sure Ferrari are fully committed to it yet – and I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if Mercedes turned up with something different again next year! 🙂

I think everybody has tacitly already accepted that haven’t they?

Yes, but copying this year’s Red Bull will guarantee not beating Red Bull’s new car next year. What they need to do is figure out what it is about the Red Bull that makes it so good and then improve on that so that they can challenge Red Bull’s improved 2024 car. The sidepods and underfloor will be part of it, but it seems likely that the anti-squat/anti-dive suspension is key to optimizing the aero. That will require new gearbox casings and major changes to the front of the car. Apparently, the Red Bull suspension makes the car a bit strange to drive, which may be why Perez seems so lost. In that case, the other teams will be trying to figure out how to get the benefits but reduce the downsides of it – for example, the difficulty getting tyres up to temperature in qualifying.

Apparently, the Red Bull suspension makes the car a bit strange to drive, which may be why Perez seems so lost

It’s amazing that the other side of the garage can’t help him a bit more, but I guess they may have got a little tight lipped after his two victories at the start of the season

It’s amazing that the other side of the garage can’t help him a bit more

They would have to loan Verstappen to drive the second car. The problem is that Perez can’t drive the car, it’s not that they don’t have access to Verstappen’s setup and telemetry.

shermer75

It’s amazing that the other side of the garage can’t help him a bit more, but I guess they may have got a little tight lipped after his two victories at the start of the season

I would think it’s extremely difficult to relearn things like that.

Probably similar to Danny Rics issues at Mclaren and Hamilton’s issues with the seat being too far forward messing up his ability to instinctively correct oversteer.

nickc
Full Member

I think everybody has tacitly already accepted that haven’t they?

Mclaren are making very good development progress and their car still looks very different to the RB for example (compare and contrast the MCL60’s waterslides and complete lack of these on the RB19).

Interest in F1 down massively – wonder why??… 🤔

https://www.autosport.com/f1/news/formula-1-reverses-social-media-gains-amid-lack-of-title-fight/10526231/

Interest rises and falls according to how close the title race is: Who knew?

Excellent interview with Newey