Poll puts “leave” ahead. Migrants effect?

https://twitter.com/Survation?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

All sorts probably. If it’s the refugee issue, that’d be pretty daft since it’s nothing to do with the EU, but things get lumped together. EU immigration doesn’t seem such a decisive issue, to me… I think Greece probably made a lot of previously pro-EU people lose faith?

But mostly, we’re just not really in the debate yet. I think the economic side will be a big decider and we’re not really talking about that.

Depends where you look. Here’s a ‘poll tracker’ from a Telegraph link…
http://cloud.highcharts.com/embed/edakyt
…so <30% for ‘get out’: one of the lowest levels since polls began
(Original Telegraph link)

I wouldn’t take the results of one poll too seriously. If there were a referendum tomorrow my hunch is that the vote to stay in would easily win. A poll which shows a majority wanting to leave the EU is I expect just showing a dissatisfaction with the EU rather than a genuine desire to leave.

IMO the case for leaving the EU hasn’t been put to the British people, beyond the bigoted little englander nonsense of UKIP.

The good news is that UKIP has recently announced that they will fight their own separate campaign for EU withdrawal, this hopefully should allow those with a commitment to democracy and opposition to neoliberalism to mount a sensible campaign for UK independence.

Although I fear that the media will still allow UKIP to overshadow debate as they always have.

this hopefully should allow those with a commitment to democracy and opposition to neoliberalism to mount a sensible campaign for UK independence.

Hilarious.

As hilarious as the UK being forced to accept TTIP, the UK being forced to accept EU privatisation directives, the UK being forced to accept EU market competition directives, and the UK being forced to accept the European Fiscal Compact, irrespective of how the British people vote?

Or not quite that funny?

The thing I’m finding interesting is the number of people I know who voted No in the Scottish referendum, who are now saying that if the UK votes to leave the EU they’d vote Yes in a new Scottish independence referendum.

Gadzooks, the referendum is still a few years away, this could well be a record breaker; longest , (dullest?) thread ever ?

I’m getting my prediction in now 60 % vote to stay in, but it will cause huge upheaval in all political parties, resulting in the end of the monarchy, Nigel Farige being elected first minister of Scotland and Jeremy Hunt being PM for the following 2 terms.

[/quote]The thing I’m finding interesting is the number of people I know who voted No in the Scottish referendum, who are now saying that if the UK votes to leave the EU they’d vote Yes in a new Scottish independence referendum.

I bet there are plenty yes voters praying for a UK exit.

Almost in agreement with you here Athgray. I suspect my reasoning is slightly different from yours though I would have been a strong supporter of staying in the E.U. 18 months ago. However TTIP and the treatment of Greece have left me undecided on the EU now. Still voting yes in indyref 2 though

Whenever things have not gone someone’s way they’ve frequently said they will take it to the European Courts.
This led me to believe that the European courts were a bit more sensible than ours and represented a more effective opposition than the Labour Party.
I’ve always been pro Europe , the people (except ze Germans) seem a bit more easy going than us.
My friend’s in laws have a week long fiesta of drinking and merry making with no punch ups. I can’t imagine that happening here.
I’d like their positive influences on us.
Anyway , would you say the euro government is less corrupt than ours?
Murdoch and the U.S seem to pull most of the strings.
Would the Euro Government stand up to either? Why haven’t the E.G clobbered Amazon for tax evasion?
Surely the E.G was made for chasing them.
Having had to go to some local council meetings I’ve witnessed a whole lot of gassing and not a lot of action.
It shouldn’t cost £20000 to move a bus stop. Is this level of incompetence magnified all the way up the chain?
If so , we don’t need yet another level of incompetent bureaucracy.

The refugee crisis is going to affect the referendum, it may create the conditions for a No vote. Why?
In the first place, the complete lack of co-ordination between EU countries is further evidence that the EU is coming apart anyway. There is also the fear Germany and Austria will issue the refugees with passports, and they will come to the UK.
Many people will be voting No because of the fear of further mass immigration and of the growing desire for border controls.

As hilarious as the UK being forced to accept TTIP, the UK being forced to accept EU privatisation directives, the UK being forced to accept EU market competition directives, and the UK being forced to accept the European Fiscal Compact, irrespective of how the British people vote?

Its hilarious that you think that the UK voters matter regardless of whether we are in or out of the EU.

The refugee crisis is going to affect the referendum, it may create the conditions for a No vote. Why?
In the first place, the complete lack of co-ordination between EU countries is further evidence that the EU is coming apart anyway. There is also the fear Germany and Austria will issue the refugees with passports, and they will come to the UK.
Many people will be voting No because of the fear of further mass immigration and of the growing desire for border controls.

I don’t think so. This country is far more accepting than the hysteric right wing media portrays us to be.

The polls suggest otherwise El-Bent, but I guess we will have to wait for the final result!

Its hilarious that you think that the UK voters matter regardless of whether we are in or out of the EU.

I haven’t made any sort of comment concerning how much “voters matter”.

Although I assume it is generally accepted that voters matter enough to have an effect on the result of referendums and indeed general elections.

The suggestion that they don’t matter at all would be hilarious if it wasn’t so silly.

Remember that this doesn’t take into account the known unknowns and unknown unknowns of Daves renegotiation in Europe. So given the refugee crisis and our less than active participation in it, the ongoing Greek debacle, stagnation in most EU economies etc, do we think that Dave will come back from that with:

a) All his shopping list of restrictions on immigration, exemptions from the Court of Human Rights judgements, and opt outs from anything he doesn’t like, all ticked off?

or

b) A great big **** off ringing in his ears from the rest of the EU?

Dave doesn’t want out of the EU, on account of not being a complete idiot, and his funders demanding their constant supply of cheap labour from the East to keep wage costs down. But he has to adopt the bonkers EU posturing to keep his more UKIP-ish back-benchers happy, and maintain his wafer-thin majority.

He will have bene hoping to come back with some token concessions, declare himself victorious against Brussels, and get spinning this as a reason to stay in.

This is looking like a more and more forlorn hope with every day that passes. Given that Jeremy Corbyn will be labour party leader by this point, whatever ground this referendum was going to be fought on, it isn’t any more.
All manner of things could have changed very dramatically between now and then. Anyone want to guess when the next instalment of the Greece saga begins again? next week? A month? How many more eastern European states are going to close their borders? Will Shengan be in existence in a months time?

So any polls now are a pretty pointless excercise

Referundum is pointless when we don’t know what we are voting for. The only certainty is that the status quo cannot be maintained. We have moved well beyond the simple idea of supported by the four freedoms (tick) to a structure that requires full monetary AND fiscal Union if it is to survive, Cameron’s idea of a rapidly restricted EU is merely a pipe dream especially after last week’s migrant fiasco. But the vote will avoid the obvious elephant and will be a waste of time.

Let’s keep the freedom of movement in place. Two meals out in Scotland yesterday. Lousy service from local lass who couldn’t be arsed at lunch and then awesome service from wonderful Polish girls (big tip) in the evening. Like their construction colleagues, great to have them here and to be able to work across Europe ourselves. Long may that continue.

The suggestion that they don’t matter at all would be hilarious if it wasn’t so silly.

Yep, my bad, they only matter after the question has been loaded, the manifesto polished…

this hopefully should allow those with a commitment to democracy and opposition to neoliberalism

To honestly think that the UK outside the EU is going to have any of the above really is silly.

Ernie, come back, come back from Ernie Eden land. Its not real.

The polls suggest otherwise El-Bent, but I guess we will have to wait for the final result!

The polls have been wrong. I seem to remember that happening last May.

The polls have been wrong. I seem to remember that happening last May.

Hence the second clause in my sentence, we shall have to wait and see.

So the Daily Mail manages to find a bunch of Mail readersidiots who want to leave the EU.

Sadly my mother and siblings read the Mail 😯 & I had the joy of taking my mum out to lunch when I should have been riding…
I’m not bitter, noooooo

I reckon the queen will be dead before the vote. Any takers?

El-bent – Member

“this hopefully should allow those with a commitment to democracy and opposition to neoliberalism”

To honestly think that the UK outside the EU is going to have any of the above really is silly.

Ernie, come back, come back from Ernie Eden land. Its not real.

It’s hardly very revolutionary to aim for a commitment to democracy and opposition to neoliberalism.

If you think that is an unattainable goal then it speaks volumes of woolly pseudo-lefties such as yourself – you’ve already given up and are accepting neoliberalism as the only attainable economic model.

Thatcher would be very proud that her TINA mantra is now embraced by “lefties”. Only those living in “Eden land” think otherwise, apparently.

And you talk about hilarity ?

.

The polls have been wrong. I seem to remember that happening last May.

How wrong did they get it? They predicted a hung parliament and the Tories won by a very small majority. The polls also predicted that the SNP would do extremely well, the LibDems would do extremely badly, and UKIP would get no more than 2 seats, all of which proved to be correct.

I can’t see the point of dismissing all future polls on that basis.