Summary, for those who CBA to read a five page document (commentary in brackets):
People and businesses in the UK aren’t prepared. The EU27 is.
The impact to the EU would be negative in “a small number of cases” (they need us more than etc etc…)
Protests across UK expected.
Low income groups disproportionately affected.
Agri-food hardest hit. Fresh food supply will decrease. (And Christmas is a-coming.)
Medicine shortages could last 6 months. Veterinary supply shortages could exacerbate epidemics.
Kent gridlocked. Lorries will be waiting to cross the Channel for two days.
Fuel disrupted, especially in London / SE.
Financial services disrupted.
If there’s water cleaning chemical supply chain disruption it will now only likely affect hundreds of thousands of people (!)
Data flow from the EU stops. Rectifying “could take years.” (This is Really Bad.)
No more EHIC. (Get sick on holiday, best have your credit card to hand.)
Gibraltar (anyone remember them?) is basically ****ed.
Trade in Ireland severely disrupted and the “no backstop” notion unsustainable beyond a few days or weeks. Rise in illegal trading, job losses, protests.
Nearly 300 non-UK fishing vessels poised to rock up on day one and stripmine our waters. (Which is just weapons-grade ironic given how much time we’ve spent in the last three years papping on about fish like it’s important to more than about ten people). Smuggling, people trafficking.
Adult social care will be screwed, but then it’s screwed to start with.
(Sunny uplands, anyone?)