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EU Referendum – are you in or out?
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CougarFull Member
Cougar, you are surprised that the clever and articulate one lost?
Sarcasm is dead.
kimbersFull MemberLengthy & pessimistic take from Ivan Rogers here
There are only 9 working days between what will be the new prime minister’s first meeting with all his oppos and October 31. So let’s be serious. Or they have concluded that if and when Macron and others say that they will not agree an extension to negotiate anything new in the Withdrawal Agreement, he will not cave in at that point.
Perhaps we are owed a clear answer in these things in the coming days? At least journalists might ask; This is why serious players in Brussels and certain capitals have concluded, as have I, that we are now rather likely to be headed for a breakdown to ‘no deal’. The cynical amongst them remark that the best political route to ‘no deal’, given that the current Commons evidently won’t vote for it, is to demand the revision of the Withdrawal Agreement replacing the backstop with the so-called ‘alternative arrangements’ set out in the Brady and Malthouse amendments, the handling of which so grievously damaged the previous Prime Minister’s reputation in capitals earlier in the year.
Once that proposal is duly rejected – which it will be – you say you have been rebuffed by the intransigent, faceless technocrats of Brussels and thwarted by a Parliament dominated by Remainers. And you have teed up an election in which the Conservative manifesto seeks public backing for the proposition that we either get those alternative arrangements in lieu of the backstop or we go to ‘no deal’. Within weeks. That might skewer Mr Farage and force the Labour Party to have a policy…Though of course nothing, of course, prevents Labour writing one of its very own unicorns into an Election manifesto. And nothing prevents Mr Farage saying ‘you promised to leave by now and you haven’t’.
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/06/ivan-rogers-no-deal-is-now-the-most-likely-outcome/
doris5000Full MemberWhat makes you rate being an MP as beyond lower/middle management? The pay is about the same,
that’s two threads in the last day or so where people have tried to claim that £80K is practically the average wage. What happened, did someone lock the luxury watch thread?
dissonanceFull MemberHo hum.
Summer recess is from 25th July (which is the week the new leader is being announced) to 3rd of September.
Lucky we arent wasting those months.BruceWeeFull MemberI don’t think being clever and articulate was Rory Stewart’s problem.
I think it’s that he insisted on basing his policies on reality.
binnersFull MemberI think it’s that he insisted on basing his policies on reality.
Emma Barnett is interviewing one of Jeremy Hunts backers on Five Live. She’s getting absolutely exasperated with him saying that they’re going to go back to Brussels and renegotiate the deal and do away with the Northern Ireland backstop with some mythical ‘alternative arrangements’
She is repeatedly pointing out to him that the EU have said they won’t renegotiate the deal, and already rejected the whole ‘alternative arrangements’ idea
They are all still just peddling fantasies.
If the implications for us all weren’t so serious, I’d be quite looking forward to seeing Boris ritually humiliated when he rocks up in Brussels with his ‘renegotiation’ proposals
Of course, if the labour party was worthy of the name HM Opposition they’d be shouting from the rooftops that they were all just peddling lies and its a fantasy that will lead to disaster.
Unfortunately, they can’t because their policy is presently exactly the same unicorn-based nonsense
molgripsFree MemberUnfortunately, they can’t because their policy is presently exactly the same unicorn-based nonsense
As if anyone would listen? Shouting from the rooftops that people are wrong never solved anything. Read the article I posted ages back about people not changing their minds, even when they know they know they have been shown to be wrong.
The only way to win at politics is to persuade people you are ‘on their side’. It has absolutely nothing to do with facts, reasoning, or policies. See Trump for an example.
binnersFull MemberWell, dogmatic, unicorn-based nonsense has to collide with reality at some point. I’d just rather it wasn’t amid the economic wreckage of a No Deal Brexit.
Looks like I’m going to be out of luck
SpeederFull MemberLooks like I’m going to be out of luck
You and about 50 million other people. :o(
molgripsFree MemberWell, dogmatic, unicorn-based nonsense has to collide with reality at some point.
Not in the minds of Brexiteers. It’ll always be someone else’s fault. The overwhelming majority of Brexiteers will blame someone else when it goes wrong, they will never admit they were wrong.
PrinceJohnFull MemberNot in the minds of Brexiteers. It’ll always be someone else’s fault. The overwhelming majority of Brexiteers will blame someone else when it goes wrong, they will never admit they were wrong.
They’ll blame the EU for screwing us over. They already are.
El-bentFree MemberThey can blame whoever they like. We know different.
Its people like us that will hold them all to account when the time comes, and that time will come.
Don’t be weak.
zippykonaFull MemberWith the upcoming fun in Iran I wonder how many of our troops will be sacrificed in the name of trade deals?
I hope Farage’s previous non intervention stance remains.
molgripsFree MemberIts people like us that will hold them all to account when the time comes, and that time will come.
I admire your optimism. But where will we have to go before we can reach that point.
cbFull MemberSo, when we need grown up polticians acting selflessly for the betterment of the country, we get two spoilt ballot papers in the Tory leadership vote!! Elected representatives spoiling their ballot papers!!!
I wonder if Rory draws poos or knobs…
PrinceJohnFull MemberIs
VladAaron Banks threatening there is going to be a civil war?The Conservative party needs to finally come off the fence and that will require blood on the carpet and lots of it ! https://t.co/THOucEeKZP
— Arron Banks (@Arron_banks) June 20, 2019
Civil wars end with a lot of blood letting and one side winning or losing @wallaceme and a lot of blood on the carpet ! https://t.co/BAK2cA1H5y
— Arron Banks (@Arron_banks) June 20, 2019
olddogFull MemberMore and more commentators talking about a GE, including those on the right. Boris forces a GE when he can’t get a deal through Europe and no deal through Parly
Tory MPs are voting for someone for the task in hand: not extensive renegotiation with the EU, but winning an election. Because that’s where we’re heading. And sooner then people think. If Boris wins, likely to be an election very quickly
— Ryan Shorthouse (@RyanShorthouse) June 20, 2019
And this election will be like a 2nd Ref: a final showdown between last minute deal Brexit/No Brexit (Cons) vs Remain (Labour). This will represents a significant failure by this PM and Parliament, but will at least break the Brexit impasse https://t.co/KF8H1ukwtX
— Ryan Shorthouse (@RyanShorthouse) June 20, 2019
PrinceJohnFull MemberSo more chaos?
Also Ryan – you’re forgetting that it’ll be far from a 2nd ref, as the leave vote will be split between Tory, Brexit & Labour candidates…
Labour are a leave party.olddogFull MemberI think he is saying when push comes to shove Labour will snap into a remain position. If leaks from Shadow Cabinet are to be believed McDonnell and Gardiner have joined the Labour should be openly campaigning on remain/2nd ref policy. That doesn’t leave many who are not…
dazhFull MemberAn election is exactly the thing that needs to happen. If Boris increases the likelihood of that then I hope he wins. When an election does occur, I fully expect labour will campaign on a new referendum and remain stance. However, labour MPs will be given a free vote on any new referendum to prevent the awkward squad of 26 or so MPs from resigning from the shadow cabinet or the party. Corbyn will concentrate his campaigning on non-brexit related policies (which are undoubtedly his strength) and leave the pro-referendum stuff to Watson et al.
dazhFull MemberYou’re trolling again…
Not at all. I’ve said all along that we need an election to change the parliamentary arithmetic, and that (going back a couple of years now) when it comes, labour would campaign for a new referendum and remain. It looks very likely that is now going to happen. Everything we’re seeing is choreography to prevent the party splitting. It may not be fast or decisive enough for many in the revocation camp, but it will be for many when they’re in the polling booth and imagine a Boris/Farage coalition.
Do you deny that we need a new election?
torsoinalakeFree MemberWell it would appear an election isn’t going to fix the parliamentary deadlock. No deal or no brexit is now the choice.
Westminster voting intention:
BREX: 23% (-3)
LDEM: 21% (-1)
CON: 20% (+3)
LAB: 20% (+1)
GRN: 9% (+1)via @YouGov
Chgs. w/ 10 Jun— Britain Elects (@britainelects) June 21, 2019
welshfarmerFull MemberThat is the trouble with FPTP, no-one knows. It could be a whitewash for Libdems, or more likely a few marginals will change hands to the minor parties and LAB/CON will take the bulk of seats, albeit with severely reduced majorities in their safe seats.
binnersFull MemberHow does that translate to seats?
Thats the question. Who knows. UKIP got millions of votes and no seats. What it does suggest – with Conservative voters defecting to Farage/Brexit in droves, and Labour voters doing the same and running off to the Lib Dems, Greens and SNP – is that the two party system is over. For the time being, at least.
Maybe this is no bad thing. There are plenty of leafy shires where you could stick a blue rosette on a baboons arse and it’d get elected. In northern towns pin a red rosette on the same arse and its in!
By the looks of that polling I’d say there no such thing as a safe seat any more. Good. Given how extreme both main parties have become.
Because it looks like the present hung parliament will look like a model of stability at the next election. If we have seats split 4 ways then, whether they like it or not, politicians are going to have to start cooperating with each other and back away from their more extreme positions
I live in hope
thepuristFull MemberHow does that translate to seats?
Someone at work pointed me to this site a while back –
kelvinFull MemberPretty pointless trying to work out seat counts at this stage.
Attempts are equal measures laughable and scary.
Did you know? that @YouGov poll results are a bit different from the other pollsters: they see #LibDem ahead of #Labour. If that's right, and they were quite accurate at the EU elections, then a YouGov-only poll of 4 polls gives this forecast: pic.twitter.com/wPiPzzDSmX
— Electoral Calculus (@ElectCalculus) June 21, 2019
olddogFull MemberThe other issue is that any current poll (however the question is framed) is based on current Brexit position for both major parties.
If Boris led Tories are forced in GE on a no deal ticket it would take loads of votes from Brexit. If Labour swing to remain (either from internal shadow cabinet pressure or as a response to Tory positioning) it will take substantial votes from Lib-Dems.
Couple this with fptp and Brexit will be lucky to get any seats. Lib-Dems likely to recover somewhat from post coalition position but nothing like the polling suggests
El-bentFree MemberMore and more commentators talking about a GE, including those on the right. Boris forces a GE when he can’t get a deal through Europe and no deal through Parly
Too many people hate him for him to win an election. The tories will still need remain tories to win the election, and I see them disappearing off to the liberal democrats.
The plan I see is for him to become leader and then simply do nothing up to October 31st. Then the infiltrated membership of the tory party will view it as job done.
All this is opinion of course, as this country is so f**ked up at the moment, anything can happen.
scotroutesFull MemberRecent polling suggests a Boris-led Tory party will gain a majority, eating the Brexit Party. Of all the potential PMs, he was the only one predicted to win that majority.
dazhFull MemberI doubt the polls will remain as they are. Labour and the tories will still remain the two largest parties in both vote share and number of seats. The decider will be who loses least to brexit and the lib dems. The tories look like they’ll lose a lot to brexit, labour are so far limiting their losses to them. The danger for labour is their vote being split between labour and lib dems allowing the tories/brexit to win seats where before they wouldn’t have had a chance. As always, keeping the tories/brexit away from power is going to require tactical voting between labour, lib dem and green voters. If they do that, a labour led coalition is possible and a new referendum is on the way, if not then no deal is guaranteed.
taxi25Free MemberToo many people hate him for him to win an election.
I don’t think that’s true, not amongst tory and prospective tory voters.
ferralsFree MemberByelection in brecon and Radnorshire after the tory MP was convicted of fraud. Hopefully the Lib dems get it and the Converatives will be down to a working majority of 3.
CougarFull Memberyou could stick a blue rosette on a baboons arse and it’d get elected
Looks like that’s about to happen…
kimbersFull Memberscotroutes
Member
Recent polling suggests a Boris-led Tory party will gain a majority, eating the Brexit Party. Of all the potential PMs, he was the only one predicted to win that majority.polling that was debunked as very questionable , not least because it was published by Johnsons very own fanzine, the Torygraph!
The use of an election calculator to project how certain candidates would perform as leader of a political party based on an opinion poll (https://t.co/2qFAwqHUsE), and to then make it a news story, is both an unreliable use of polling and an inadvisable way to report polls.
— Britain Elects (@britainelects) June 12, 2019
BUT a GE before Johnson has to admit that he has no idea how to make Brexit work would make more sense for Johnson, he knows that the Leavers are rather gullible to hi schtick, but once hes failed utterly to deliver his unicorn fantasies he’ll be in trouble
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