From a friend on Facebook. He’s realtively well connected politically through TV work and reporting, he does know what he’s talking about:
Theresa May had been relaxed about “No Deal” until she read the terrifying detail in the official papers. That’s why “No deal is better than a bad deal” suddenly changed to “This is the ONLY deal”. She now won’t let “no deal” happen because she doesn’t want to be remembered as the PM who ushered in economic chaos while ignoring the official advice.
The EU won’t renegotiate the deal, as anything weaker risks the Irish border, and would make a mockery of the whole point of the EU. BUT if the deal isn’t renegotiated, Team Rees-Mogg and the DUP will go nuclear and chuck it out.
So … stalemate. Unless…
The only obvious route out of this mess is some kind of new, specific mandate to do something. Anything. That means either another referendum or an election.
Spoiler: Theresa May doesn’t have a great record in elections, so it won’t be that.
Note that TM has been asked repeatedly to rule out a second referendum, but all she has said is “that would be the wrong thing to do”. That gives her enough wriggle room to say, after Christmas “sorry, I tried my best but we now need new specific instructions from you, the voters.” She will move in Parliament for a new referendum with the choice between her deal or no deal.
A majority of MPs in Parliament have remain sympathies and will amend the bill to include a “Remain” option on the ballot.
Article 50 will be suspended for a few of months while we sort this out, and a referendum will be held with a two stage question…
1) Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union?
2) If the United Kingdom leaves the EU, should it leave under the terms negotiated in 2018, or without a specific trade deal.
And then we go to the Winchester, have a nice cold pint, and wait for this all to blow over.