A couple of days ago I’d have said May had no chance of getting this deal through parliament, now I’m not so sure.

If its this or a no deal, then they HAVE to vote it through. Its as simple as that. Theres an awful lot of posturing going on, but its all from people who simply don’t have the numbers.

If we’re staring into the abyss (which we sort of are already) of no deal then Corbyn will have no chance of whipping his MPs to vote for that. It may be what Jeremy has always dreamt of, but no party members support it (what happened to this fabled ‘democracy he was so keen on then, eh?) and all but about 4 of his MP’s won’t vote for no deal under any circumstances.

Its said that Corbyn is trying to use parliamentary process to engineer it so that if this is voted down it won’t mean no deal. I have no idea how he intends to achieve that. He’s no chance. Its increasingly looking like its this or nothing. Labour won’t want to be held culpable for the chaos of a no deal (no matter what Pro-Hard Brexit Jezza thinks personally)

The Tory’s are the same. This week has shown how weak the ERG and the rest of the nutters really are. They make an awful lot of noise and get a lot of media coverage (from a rabidly pro-Brexit press) but at the end of the day they can’t even get the numbers together for a no confidence vote. Theres no chance they’ll get a vote through for a no deal Brexit. The majority of Tory MPs are still pro-remain.

And the DUP have just found out that they’ve served their purpose, but now its genuine business time, are now surplus to requirements

The Pro Brexit press may hang off every word Boris or Rees Mogg says, but they’re a tiny parliamentary splinter group who can’t put 48 letters together. This all hinges on the Labour party. Will Corbyn carry on with this ludicrous “I’ll pretend I’m a remainer while whipping my party for a hard Brexit’ stance, or listen to his MPs and his fabled ‘membership’ or MPs. I think if he tries to force through anything that will bring about a no deal and he’s finished. And not before time.

Whatever we end up with is going to be the least worst option. I mean WTF did people expect? It was always going to be thus.

And I think cooler heads are starting to realise that this, no matter much worse it is than what we presently have, is the best we’re going to get. And a no deal is unthinkable to all but a hardcore of nutters  – who it would appear, thankfully, number less than 48.

Well that showed those bloody meddling EU bureaucrats, didn’t it, eh?

An amendment saying that if the house(s) agree to the withdrawal agreement, it will then be put to the electorate in a referendum to approve, or reject and remain, is the only route through this. You know who won’t countenance that though. The fact that the actual replacement for EU membership still hasn’t been properly framed makes this a harder call though. It’s just the off ramp that’s being argued over here, not where we are going. Brexit fans would be mad not to except the withdrawal deal… as it could still mean that multiple contradictory Brexits are in play. The only hope is that the waverers might be aware now that this will be long, messy, and without the upsides suggested a couple of years ago, and go for abandoning it.

A couple of days ago I’d have said May had no chance of getting this deal through parliament, now I’m not so sure.

If its this or a no deal, then they HAVE to vote it through. Its as simple as that. Theres an awful lot of posturing going on, but its all from people who simply don’t have the numbers

This

May’s in no hurry to have the vote either as the later she leaves it, the more potentially catastrophic no deal becomes & MPs know this.

Of course the trade off is that businesses & government have to start no deaa prep thats short term costly, as well as long term damaging to our reputation & may force relocations regardless.

But it’s very clear that the important thing here is that May & the Tories keep their grip on power, the welfare of the nation obviously just an afterthought.

As binners says this will get through..

280 Tory Mps

15+ Labour Rebels

25 labour abstentions?

Lib dems?

One thing thats an interesting development as well, which hasn’t really been reported by the press over here is that the Irish government are leaning heavily on Sinn Fein to take their seats in parliament for this vote.

I’d love to see the look on Arlene Fosters face if they do 😀

No chance at all of this going thru parliament and the alternative is remain.  A no deal brexit no only would be dissterous for the country – it would be dsasterous for the tories and they know it

There is not going to be significant number of labour rebels – even Hoey says she will vote against.  DUP will vote against, some tories will vote against.  SNP will vote against, Lib dems will vote against.  Majority of 50 – 100 against.

Labour policy is clear and bears no resemblance to what binners says.  1) vote down the bill.  2) Attempt to force a GE.  If 2 does not work then 3) amend legislation / put forward a bill for a second referendum.

Labours position is also to remain in the customs union and close to the single market.  A position that would go down much better in EU capitals thn Mays position and no doubt at all they would be happy to extend a50 to allow a new government time to do something more sensible.

I still await the quotes from Corbyn that sustain this myth he is a hard leaver.  As yet no one has come up with anything.  they cannot because its simply not true.

Is the alternative remain? It really should be but I am not sure they have the guts for that…

the trouble with this deal is it is a halfway house. You lose a lot of benefits and still are not “free”. The papers and the Euro sceptics have free rein to say this is holding us back and crippling the country. It will build resentment but will this manifest as pro leave or pro join EU? I honestly don’t think as a country if we get half out we would join up again losing our current privileges.

Honestly with a holistic long term view if we can’t remain I am not sure crap deal is better than no deal. In the short term it certainly is..

Labour policy is clear and bears no resemblance to what binners says. 1) vote down the bill. 2) Attempt to force a GE. If 2 does not work then 3) amend legislation / put forward a bill for a second referendum.

The time to suggest a referendum is in the upcoming vote, when Tory rebels can back an amendment.

After all the Labour game playing has played out… trying to get a general election where Remain is not really an option… an election that would just eat up the time we have left … rebel Tories will simply fall in behind May and back her off ramp deal to save the government (and arguably the country), when time is all but gone to do anything else.

Corbyn wants a Labour Brexit. It won’t be happening. By not backing any way out of Brexit, now, he is enabling a Tory Brexit.

I’ve been thinking that this deal is going to go through since the weekend when it became apparent there wasn’t going to be a no confidence vote.

My reasoning is simply that every time parliament has had the opportunity to stop or even put the brakes on (triggering Article 50 and having a meaningful vote, for example) it’s been whipped and/or bottled it and carried on regardless.

I’ve no reason to think they’ve grown a spine in the meantime.

Labour policy is clear and bears no resemblance to what binners says.  1) vote down the bill.  2) Attempt to force a GE.  If 2 does not work then 3) amend legislation / put forward a bill for a second referendum.

Hi there Uncle Jezza. Its the real world here again…

1) vote down the bill.

Labour MPs will not vote for a no deal. Never! Not a chance. No matter what Jezza wants. if its this or No Deal, then everyone apart from the beardy messiah, Kate Hoey and Frank Field will vote it through

2) Attempt to force a GE

Yeah… right. Not happening. Not in a million years. Well… 4 years to be precise. Its like me saying I’m going to force a gold-plated unicorn to appear in my back garden. Unless you can tell me how Jezzas going to manage that….? How he’s going to ‘force’ a general election? By concentrating really really hard? Getting Uri Geller in?

Why do you think there has been no vote of no confidence so far. Because divided shambles that they are, there is no way on earth the Torys are about to gift Labour a general election. Not a chance. can I have my gold-plated unicorn now please?

3) amend legislation / put forward a bill for a second referendum.

Again… how? Have you missed the bit about needing a parliamentary majority to do any of that? They can table amendments, sure. The government can then tell them to **** off

Christ only knows what planet you Corbynistas live on if you think any of this is any way a workable policy. It isn’t! Wake up FFS?!!

But then it was never meant to be. Bottom line is Jezza wants a hard Brexit. You lot just don’t want too/won’t acknowledge this. LA LA LAAAA… WE’RE NOT LISTENING!!!!

He’s not going to get one. His MPs won’t vote for it. Only the hard right ERG headbangers will. It’ll be good to see those lot trooping through the lobby together. Jezza and Rees Mogg up front, Kate Hoey and IDS in step behind. At that point you Momentum lot might actually wake up and reacquaint yourselves with reality.

i’ll not hold my breath

Jezza will lose any credibility he has if his own party does vote for Mays deal – depending on how many rebels swing it.

I’d like to see Starmer in charge anyway.

I want Lammy as Labour leader, and a complete shuffle at the top. But that’s just as irrelevant as wanting May replaced with another blue leader. The clock is ticking. No new leaders… no new set of MPs… the current crowd need to say…

“OK, this is the best deal our government can get. Will will support it if the public are consulted on it, and given the straight choice between this withdrawal deal, with its loose outline proposals for a future relationship, or calling the whole thing off.”

At no point is it a case of this deal vs no deal. There is always the option of postponing or withdrawing A50. That option is never off the table in any legal or absolute sense, it is just not current govt policy.

binners, your continuous anti-corbyn diatribes are extremely boring. Can you think of something else worthwhile to contribute to the thread please?

Sorry to bore you but IMHO Corbyn was just as much responsible or this car crash as Boris Johnson. Now, more so.
And the people still supporting his ridiculous position are gullible beyond belief

I’m not sure Captain Jezbags would manage to turn up to vote, let alone get a co-ordinated party response.

I dont think many labour mps give a **** about what jezza thinks and bear in mind many represent brexit constituencies and an abstention is as good as a vote for Mrs May.

I think it will float,the folks who are shouting it down are few in number.

Don’t agree with Binners’ assessment. I think the Labour whips will sow enough doubt to ensure enough Labour MPs either vote against or abstain rather than vote for. Principles tend to melt away in these circumstances.

And no-one has proposed a vote on no-deal. No deal will simply happen in the absence of approval for something else.

We can all hold out hope that MPs will get their act together to defer or withdraw A50 in the event that May’s proposed agreement is voted down, she resigns etc. But prior experience of their collective competence doesn’t make that a given.

Whatever happens, I think that the total shambles we’ve seen over the last week is going to be nothing compared to whats going to happen when it comes to the vote. Because the infighting is going to re-emerge big time in the labour ranks as push really comes to shove, and the Tory party is likely to go into full on civil war mode. Last weeks blood-letting is going to loo like a minor tiff in comparison. No doubt while the pound goes into freefall and business bolt for the exit

Something to look forward too eh?

One thing thats an interesting development as well, which hasn’t really been reported by the press over here is that the Irish government are leaning heavily on Sinn Fein to take their seats in parliament for this vote.

I’d love to see the look on Arlene Fosters face if they do

Now THAT would be brilliant!

Yes, interesting times. One thing I really struggle to get my head round is how people can still want to “take back sovereignty” when our parliament shows itself to be so totally incompetent on a daily basis. When did the EU ever do such a bad job?

Thats what I can’t get my head around either.

The powers that be in Brussels have played a blinder, delivered exactly what they said they would, more in fact, while being totally united in representing the interests of their citizens.

Meanwhile, in the UK, from both government and opposition, we’ve had 2 solid years of…

As already mentioned ^^ those that were spouting the 48 letters were IN, were indeed Wrong.

Its always good to follow the facts, not this current speculative Press release world we live in.

As far as the “vote” goes, my predictions are it will go through. Maybot will continue through to the deal being released and implemented and she will be lauded for her steadfast and steady hand, then resign and the ensuing incumbent will force a general election and the Tory’s will loose and the whole political landscape will change once again.

Lets not forget the amount of money and time this shambles is taking up.. makes you wonder what MPs actually did before this fiasco.. begs the question if that’s the case the UK could save a whole load of money and make them redundant and consolidate a lot of what they do and outsource it to the large well funded Customer Service centres in the EU/Old Easten Block/India.

I’ll happily Programme Manage that If they want, for a massive fee obviously 🤪

Theres some absolute bell end from the ERG being interviewed on Five Live. These people are totally and utterly detached from any semblance of reality. Its quite staggering just to what degree.

He’s saying that May should go back and DEMAND their have cake/eat it proposal. He still hasn’t registered that we’re in no position to be demanding anything. I think he thinks he’s running the East India Company, or something, and he’s telling the bally natives how things are going to be from now on!

He’s no answer as to why they can’t manage the 48 letters. Mind you…. he hasn’t got an answer as to anything, that doesn’t involve magic unicorns

Jesus, these people are truly as thick as mince.

Labour do of course have idiots like Flint who has said she will vote with May for this deal.  NOt because she believes its right or a good deal but because she is scared of racists in her constituency.  I do agree that the infighting in labour will come out into the open.  You have those with doubts about the EU but who on balance want to remain in or as close as possible – Like Corbyn  ( who lets not forget campigned remain, spoke at more public meetings to more people than anyone else during the campaign).  They will vote it down as this deal is too damaging with no upsides.,    You have rabid outies like Hoey who will vote it down as its not extreme enough.  You have idiots like Flint who will vote for it as they are stupid, spineless and scared of their racist voters

Labour is as badly split as the tories over this

Corbyn has consistently said he will vote down this deal.  His and labours official position is to ” respect the will of the people” but remain much much closer to the EU

The tories will never allow a no deal to happen – they know they would be finished as a party if that happens and if the tories know anything its that party comes first.

Meanwhile:

“The UK Supreme Court has refused the UK Govt permission to appeal the Scottish courts referral to CJEU of the question of unilateral revocability of Article 50. The case will proceed in Luxembourg on 27 Nov. A vindication of Scots & EU law”

Maybe we can have the No Brexit solution.

Maybe – sigh.

If and when it becomes clear that we can revoke A50 at the 11th hour unilaterally, things really will go down to the wire. This would not even require a vote in parliament, since the previous vote authorised (did not mandate IIRC) her to do so.

Of course there is the possibility that the court rules otherwise, but I don’t expect it.

His and labours official position is to ” respect the will of the people” but remain much much closer to the EU

Come on TJ, who are you trying to fool? He’s trolling us by intending to do the very opposite of what he says. What he really wants is an off the cliff no deal brexit, because even though all his MPs, shadow cabinet, party members, supporters, trade union backers, and most labour voters all oppose that, that’s what will allow him to unilaterally usher in the great communist revolution which the 20th century missed out on. Or maybe he’s actually just pro-soft brexit like he says he is? I guess we’ll find out soon enough. I know what I’m putting my money on. 😉

Or maybe he’s actually just pro-soft brexit like he says he is?

He doesn’t even says he is.

End of FoM is his repeated red line.

The leaders of both main parties happy to pretend that was the issue voted on in 2016, and that the result was conclusive. It wasn’t, and it wasn’t.

Corbyn?

Judge a man by his actions, or rather when it comes to Brexit……his in-actions!

Rees Mogg is still agitating for his 48 votes this morning. Apparently he’s got the numbers. Yeah, right, you haunted Victorian pencil

Meanwhile, the award for the most detached from reality Tory of the lot goes to….. Former Cameron Blue Sky Thinker Steve Hilton

you really couldn’t make this shit up!

I’d like to see a Cameron/Blair face-off 🙂

I have to say, during this whole cluster **** I haven’t paid any attention to a single thing JC has said, he’s an utter irrelevance, a pointless turd of a man. Leader of the opposition? don’t make me laugh.

Four MPs (all medical professionals) trying to table the amendment for the public vote between the government’s “deal” and remaining (it really is the only possible way out of this now).

More talk like that ad you’ll find yourself in the gulag, comrade.

Apparently Corbyn campaigned relentlessly during the referendum. Who knew? Theres us mistakenly thinking he sloped off to the allotment for the duration.

And allegedly he’s been ‘holding the government to account’ since then. In much the same way as my dining room table has, one can only presume

I’ll look forward to the socialist revolution then, as it looks like its all pretty much in the bag. I guess we’ll see him again when he returns victorious from the allotment. March maybe?

March maybe?

Na, that’s tattie planting season, and the red army marches on tatties, brother.

If the labour party abstains from the vote…..

OK, it is on, lets see Corbyn’s true colours.

Oh my goodness. Isn’t this @sarahwollaston effectively resigning from the Tory party? Wow https://t.co/mpgD2PzNd7

— Robert Peston (@Peston) November 20, 2018

Tory remainers are effectively begging the labour party to get on board and oppose.

I’m predicting the sound of silence, bar the echoing of Kier Starmer banging his head repeatedly against a brick wall.

Consistently the likes of Nikki Morgan, Sarah Woolaston and Anna Sourby have provided an infinitely more effective ‘opposition’ to this madness than anyone on the labour front bench. They’ve certainly been considerably more vocal! mind you…. my cats been more vocal in its opposition to brexit than Corbyn

Apparently Starmer has been minutes away from resigning on a number of occasions, totally frustrated at Corbyns detachment, disinterest and inaction. Every concession made by Corbyn (in that any activity at all to oppose Brexit seems to be an inconvenience to him) is because he’s been bounced into by Kier Starmer